• Title/Summary/Keyword: 평균분산모형

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Development of Vehicle Arrival Time Prediction Algorithm Based on a Demand Volume (교통수요 기반의 도착예정시간 산출 알고리즘 개발)

  • Kim, Ji-Hong;Lee, Gyeong-Sun;Kim, Yeong-Ho;Lee, Seong-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2005
  • The information on travel time in providing the information of traffic to drivers is one of the most important data to control a traffic congestion efficiently. Especially, this information is the major element of route choice of drivers, and based on the premise that it has the high degree of confidence in real situation. This study developed a vehicle arrival time prediction algorithm called as "VAT-DV" for 6 corridors in total 6.1Km of "Nam-san area trffic information system" in order to give an information of congestion to drivers using VMS, ARS, and WEB. The spatial scope of this study is 2.5km~3km sections of each corridor, but there are various situations of traffic flow in a short period because they have signalized intersections in a departure point and an arrival point of each corridor, so they have almost characteristics of interrupted and uninterrupted traffic flow. The algorithm uses the information on a demand volume and a queue length. The demand volume is estimated from density of each points based on the Greenburg model, and the queue length is from the density and speed of each point. In order to settle the variation of the unit time, the result of this algorithm is strategically regulated by importing the AVI(Automatic Vehicle Identification), one of the number plate matching methods. In this study, the AVI travel time information is composed by Hybrid Model in order to use it as the basic parameter to make one travel time in a day using ILD to classify the characteristics of the traffic flow along the queue length. According to the result of this study, in congestion situation, this algorithm has about more than 84% degree of accuracy. Specially, the result of providing the information of "Nam-san area traffic information system" shows that 72.6% of drivers are available.

The Effect of Baltic Dry Index on the Korean Stock Price Volatility (발틱운임지수가 한국 주가 변동성에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Ki-Hong;Kim, Dong-Yoon
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.61-76
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to use the EGARCH model and Granger causality test to analyze how the change in the BDI affects the Korean stock price volatility. The main analysis results are summarized as follows. First, according to the results of the mean equation, the change in the BDI is significant in large-cap stocks, as well as in the manufacturing, service, and chemistry indexes, but not in others. This implies that the Korean stock market does not respond appropriately to the maritime market situation; further, the increase in demand for raw materials has not led to a real economic recovery. Second, in the result of the variance equation, the coefficient on the change in the BDI is negative(-), and the change in the BDI is significant for all size indexes. Particularly, the change in the BDI has a greater impact on the volatility of small-cap stocks than that of large-cap stocks. The results of the analysis of the sector indexes were statistically significant for the service, financial, construction, and electric and electronics industries, but not for the manufacturing and chemical industries. In particular, the changes in the BDI have the greatest impact on the construction industry. Third, according to the Granger causality test results, the change in the BDI leads the financial industry and construction industry. There is, however, no relationship between the BDI and the other indexes. This shows that change in the shipping freight index can be used to predict the volatility in the Korean stock market. This can help investors and policymakers make better decisions.

Analysis of health-related quality of life factors in south Korean one-person households (한국 1인 가구의 건강관련 삶의 질 영향 요인 분석)

  • Gu, Hye-Ja
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.453-463
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate one-person household its health-related quality of life(HRQOL) using data from the seventh Korea national health and nutrition examination survey(KNHANES Ⅶ-2) 2017. The subjects were 301. The data were analyzed by frequency, descriptive analysis and linear regression analysis using SPSS complex samples Win 25 program. The HRQOL score was 0.92, and 2.5% of the subjects in the pain and discomfort area had severe problems. HRQOL related to the subject was 0.034, 0.039, and 0.031, respectively, when the household income level was lower, the education level was lower than elementary school graduates, and if they did not drink at present. HRQOL was 0.072, 0.065, 0.103, and 0.040 in perceived health status good or moderate, the absence of activity limitation and arthritis, was explained 43.1%. There is a need to develop interdisciplinary approaches with great interest in improving the one-person households HRQOL.

Dynamic Analysis on Electricity Demands for the Steel Industry in Korea: Comparison between SMEs and Large Firms (우리나라 철강산업의 전력수요에 대한 동태 분석: 중소기업과 대기업 간 비교)

  • Li, Dmitriy;Bae, Jeong Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.499-520
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    • 2020
  • Input ratio of electricity to other production inputs in the Korean manufacturing sector has been higher than for the other OECD countries. In addition, electricity prices in Korea has been relatively lower than the average of OECD countries. Moreover, electricity sector is responsible for most CO2 emissions in Korea as coal and natural gas account 41.9% and 26.8% of electricity production as of 2018. Therefore, it looks inevitable to raise the electricity tariff for the manufacturing sector in Korea, but there is a concern that increase in the electricity tariff might affect small and medium enterprises (SMEs) more than large firms. This study estimates electricity demand's price and output elasticities for large firms and SMEs in steel industry by employing a time varying parameter model (Kalman filter). The analysis shows that changes in output levels regardless of firms' size affect electricity demands more significantly than do changes in electricity prices. Second, large firms have higher variances for both price and output elasticities of electricity demand. Third, large firms have higher price elasticity but lower output elasticity of electricity demand relative to SMEs. Policy implications are suggested in association with how to reduce electricity demands in the energy-intensive industry.

Validity of the Happiness-Enhancing Activities and Positive Practices Inventory(HAPPI) Scale in Physical Activities Participation in Korean Old Adults (신체활동참여 한국 노인을 위한 행복증진활동(HAPPI)척도의 구인타당도)

  • Kim, Woo-Kyung
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.285-294
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to assess construct validity and verify the concept of the Happiness-enhancing Activities and Positive Practices Inventory(HAPPI) developed by Henricksen & Stephens(2013), for Korean old adults who participating physical activities with measuring happiness-related propensity. In this study, the research model was confirmed by evidenced based on the content validity, EFA, construct validity of the latent structure analysis with CFA, reliability as internal consistency. Using self-reported questionnaire conducted among 370 participants who physical activities. Total of 344 data were selected. As a result, internal consistency α was acceptable. Evidence-based on convergent and discriminant of the CFA as GFI=.925, CFI .962, TLI .953, and RMSEA .062 appeared significantly. Model goodness-of-fit, C.R. ratio(Critical ratio: estimates/SE) and Squared Multiple Correlations(SMC), and average variance extracted(AVE) was verified with the hypothesis of the model. Therefore, HAPPI validity evidence for the model fit was confirmed. In conclusion, the HAPPI 4 factors and 16 items(Other-focused, Personal recreation and interests, Achievement, Self-Concordant Work, Spiritual and thought-related) has reliable evidence to apply for Korean old adults and applicable assessment of happiness.

The Effect of Variations in the Vertical Position of the Bracket on the Crown Inclination (브라켓의 수직적 위치변동에 따른 치관경사도변화에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Yeon-Joo;Kim, Tae-Woo;Yoo, Kwan-Hee
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.32 no.6 s.95
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    • pp.401-411
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    • 2002
  • Precise bracket positioning is essential in modem orthodontics. However, there can be alterations in the vertical position of a bracket due to several reasons. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of variations in the vertical bracket position on the crown inclination in Korean patients with normal occlusion. From a larger group of what was considered to be normal occlusions obtained from the Department of Orthodontics, College of Dentistry, Seoul National University, each of the final 10 subjects (6 males and 4 females, with an average age of 22.3 yews) was selected. The dental models of each of the subjects were scanned three-dimensionally by a laser scanner, and measurements drawn from these were made on the scanned dental casts of the subjects were input into the computer program. From this the occlusal plane and the bracket plane were determined. The tooth plane was then constructed to measure the crown inclination on the bracket plane of each tooth. From a practical standpoint, information was obtained on the extent to which the torque of a tooth would be changed as the bracket position was to be moved vertically (in ${\pm}0.5mm,\;{\pm}1.0mm,\;{\pm}1.5mm$) from its ideal position. A one way analysis of the variance (ANOVA) was used to compare each group of the different vertical distances from the bracket plane on a specific tooth. Duncan's multiple comparison test was then performed. There were statistically significant differences in the crown inclination among the groups of different vertical distances for the upper central incisor, upper lateral incisor, upper canine, upper first and second molars, lower first and second premolars, and lower first and second molars (p<0.05). On the upper anterior teeth, upper molars, lower premolars and lower molars, the resultant torque values due to the vertical displacement of the bracket were different depending on the direction of the displacement, occlusal or gingival. This study implies that the torque of these teeth should be handled carefully during the orthodontic treatment. In circumstances in which the bracket must be positioned more gingivally or occlusally due to various reasons, it would be useful to provide the chart of torque alteration of each tooth referred to in this study with its specified bracket prescription.

Effects of High Protein Diet on Meat Productivity and Quality in Multiparous Hanwoo Cull Cows (고단백질 사료의 급여가 다산 한우 암소의 육생산량과 육질에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Do-Hyeong;Yoon, Woo-Jung;Choi, Nag-Jin;Ryu, Kyeong-Seon;Oh, Young-Kyoon;Jang, Sun-Sik;Choi, Chang-Weon;Joo, Jong-Won;Cho, Sang-Buem;Kim, Eun-Joong
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.1251-1258
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    • 2011
  • Multiparous Hanwoo cull cows have been generally regarded to have poor meat quality compared to young and primiparous Hanwoo in Korea, and there have been few studies attempting to understand various feeding programs for the multiparous Hanwoo cull cow. In this study, the effects of a feeding program consisting of two different diets for multiparous Hanwoo cull cows on meat production and quality were tested in comparison to a commercially used diet. Diets for treatment consisted of two levels of crude protein contents, 14.28% and 12.70% for early fattening and finishing, respectively. For a control, commercially used fattening feed (12.39% crude protein) was used. Feeding trials were performed at three different farms. In farm A, 29 herds of multiparous Hanwoo cull cows were used for the treatment group and 3 herds for the control. In farms B and C, the number of animal herds for treatment and control were 8 vs. 3 and 11 vs. 4 herds, respectively. Experiment diets were fed for an average of 211 days and in treatment, early fattening diet was fed for 4 months and then finishing feed was fed until slaughter. Average daily gains, thickness of back fat, area of Longissimus dorsi, carcass weight, index of carcass weight, intramuscular fat, meat color and texture were analyzed after slaughter. Random effect model [8] was employed in effect analysis. Positive effects of treatment were found in terms of average daily gain, back fat thickness, Longissimus dorsi area, carcass weight, and intramuscular fat. Carcass yield index, meat color and texture showed a negative effect. In this study, significant results were not found in all factors analyzed because the variance between experiment farms was large, however the 90% confidence interval of summary effects of ADG, back fat thickness, Longissimus dorsi area and carcass weight were significant and that of carcass yield index, intramuscular fat, meat color and texture were less so. Conclusively, a high protein diet fed early during the fattening period in multiparous Hanwoo cull cows could have positive effects on meat production.

Relationship between disk displacement of temporomandibular joint and dentofacial asymmetry (측두하악관절 원판 변위와 치열 및 안면부 비대칭의 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Nahm, Kyoung-Soo;Kim, Tae-Woo
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.33 no.3 s.98
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    • pp.211-222
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study was to determine whether there is an association between disk displacement of the Temporomandibular Joint (TMJ) and dentofacial asymmetry In orthodontic patients. The subjects consisted of 60 female orthodontic patients between the ages of 18 and 38 years (mean age 23.3 years) who had visited the Department of Orthodontics at Seoul National University Dental Hospital from January 2000 to April 2002. On the basis of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of their bilateral TMJs, the subjects were divided Into four groups'. bilateral normal group (twenty-one persons); disk displacement of right TMJ group (six persons); disk displacement of left TMJ group (nine persons); and disk displacement of both TMJs group (twenty-four persons) Postero-anterior (PA) cephalograms and diagnostic models which had been taken before orthodontic treatment were measured. In the linear measurements, a line connecting the right and left Latero-Orbitale (Lo) represented the horizontal reference line (H). The vertical reference line (V) was constructed as a line bisecting and running perpendicular to H. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to test whether the mean values of measurements between groups were significantly different. In addition, Bonferronil's multiple comparison test was performed at a level of 0.05. The results were as follows; 1 In the diagnostic model analysis, the overjet, nght molar relationship, and left molar relationship were significantly different among the four groups. 2. In the PA cephalometric analysis, differences in the right and left vertical position of the lower first molar and Ag were significantly dissimilar among the four groups. 3. If the disk displacement of TMJ was present on one side, the ipsilateral ramus was shorter, resulting in asymmetry in the vertical position of Ag. This study indicated that dentofacial asymmetry might be related to the disk displacement of TMJ.

UBVI CCD Photometry of NGC 7790 (NGC 7790의 UBVI CCD 측광)

  • Choi, Dong Yeol;Kim, Hee Soo;Lim, Beomdu;Sung, Hwankyung
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.7
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    • pp.661-673
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    • 2015
  • UBVI CCD photometry of the intermediate age open cluster NGC 7790 has been obtained using AZT-22 1.5 m telescope (f/7.74) at the Maidanak Astronomical Observatory in Uzbekistan. NGC 7790 contains three ${\delta}$ Cep variable stars including CEa Cas, CEb Cas, and CF Cas. PSF photometry was carried out using IRAF/DAOPHOT for all observations. The total number of stars observed both in V and I filter was 1008 and the limiting magnitude was $V{\approx}22$. To determine atmospheric extinction coefficients and photometric zero points, many blue and red standard stars as well as the standard stars in the celestial equator under various airmass were observed. Photometric data were transformed into the standard Johnson-Cousins' UBVI standard system. From the analysis of UBVI color-magnitude diagram and color-color diagram, the color excess in V and I filter [$E(B-V)=0.58{\pm}0.02$], the selective extinction ratio in V and I filter [$R_V{\equiv}A_V/E(B-V)=3.02{\pm}0.09$] and distance modulus ($V_0-M_V=12.65{\pm}0.10$) of the cluster were determined. The age of the cluster was estimated to be log $age=8.05{\pm}0.05$ [yr] based on the position of these three Cepheid variables in the color-magnitude diagram, the isochrone of the Geneva group ($Ekstr{\ddot{o}}m$ et al., 2012-Z=0.019), and the isochrone of the Padova group (Bressan et al., 2012-Z=0.014) were used to compare each other. Of them, the Geneva models that considered stellar rotation well described the position of ${\delta}$ Cepheid variables in the blue loop. Although they were well consistent with standard period-luminosity relation of ${\delta}$ Cepheid variables, three Cepheid variables in NGC 7790 were, on average, brighter by about 0.5 mag than the absolute magnitude estimated from the mean period-luminosity relation at a given period.

Cohort Study for the Effect of Chronic Noise Exposure on Blood Pressure among Male Workers (만성적 소음노출이 혈압에 미치는 영향에 대한 코호트연구)

  • Cha, Tae-Joon;Kim, Jang-Rak;Kang, Wee-Chang;Yaang, Seung-Rim;Lee, Choong-Ryeol;Yoo, Cheol-In;Lee, Ji-Ho
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.205-213
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    • 2002
  • Objective : Whether exposure to chronic noise induces an increase in blood pressure, or the development of hypertension, has not been established. A cohort study was performed to identify the effects of chronic noise exposure on blood pressure. Methods : 530 males working at a metal manufacturing factory in Busan, Korea were enrolled for the study. They were monitored for 9 consecutive years, from 1991 to 1999, with an annual health check-up. The subjects were divided into 4 groups, which were determines by noise level categories(NLC) according to noise intensity ; NLC-I: office workers, exposed to noise a level below 60dB(A) ; NLC-II: field technical supporters or supervisors, frequently exposed to workplace noise, wearing no hearing protection device; NLC-III: workers, exposed to workplace noise below 85dB(A), wearing ear plugs or muffs; NLC-IV: workers, exposed to workplace noise over 85 dB(A), wearing both ear plugs and muffs. Results : After controlling possible confoundens, such as baseline age, smoking, alcohol intake, exercise, family history of hypertension, systolic(SBP) of diastolic blood pressure(DBP) and changes in BMI (body mass index), the pooled mean for the systolic blood pressures, over the duration of the study period, were 3.8mmHg, 2.0mmHg and 1.7mmHg higher in NLC-IV, NLC-III NLC-II groups, respectively, than in the NLC-I group. There were no significant differences in the diastolic blood pressures between the groups. Conclusion : This study suggests that chronic noise exposure increases systolic blood pressure independently, among male workers.