• Title/Summary/Keyword: 평균분산모형

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Development and validation of poisson cluster stochastic rainfall generation web application across South Korea (포아송 클러스터 가상강우생성 웹 어플리케이션 개발 및 검증 - 우리나라에 대해서)

  • Han, Jaemoon;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.335-346
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    • 2016
  • This study produced the parameter maps of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) stochastic rainfall generation model across South Korea and developed and validated the web application that automates the process of rainfall generation based on the produced parameter maps. To achieve this purpose, three deferent sets of parameters of the MBLRP model were estimated at 62 ground gage locations in South Korea depending on the distinct purpose of the synthetic rainfall time series to be used in hydrologic modeling (i.e. flood modeling, runoff modeling, and general purpose). The estimated parameters were spatially interpolated using the Ordinary Kriging method to produce the parameter maps across South Korea. Then, a web application has been developed to automate the process of synthetic rainfall generation based on the parameter maps. For validation, the synthetic rainfall time series has been created using the web application and then various rainfall statistics including mean, variance, autocorrelation, probability of zero rainfall, extreme rainfall, extreme flood, and runoff depth were calculated, then these values were compared to the ones based on the observed rainfall time series. The mean, variance, autocorrelation, and probability of zero rainfall of the synthetic rainfall were similar to the ones of the observed rainfall while the extreme rainfall and extreme flood value were smaller than the ones derived from the observed rainfall by the degree of 16%-40%. Lastly, the web application developed in this study automates the entire process of synthetic rainfall generation, so we expect the application to be used in a variety of hydrologic analysis needing rainfall data.

Analyzing the effect of LID(Low Impact Development) using the CAT(Catchment hydrologic cycle Assessment Tool) (CAT을 이용한 LID(Low Impact Development) 효과 분석)

  • Jang, Cheol-Hee;Kim, Hyeon-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.278-278
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    • 2012
  • 최근 녹색도시를 지향하면서 도시 내에서의 물의 순환에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있으며 도시계획 단계에서부터 물의 순환을 고려하려는 시도가 이루어지고 있다. 국토해양부, 환경부, 소방방재청 및 지방자치단체들은 법령, 기준, 지침 및 조례 등을 제정하여 물순환을 도시개발 이전의 상태가 될 수 있도록 시설 설치를 유도하고 있다. 그러나, 개별시설들의 조합이 유역규모의 물순환에 미치는 영향 평가는 이루어지고 있지 못한 실정이다. 종래에는 홍수저감을 목적으로 홍수저류지와 침투시설에 대하여 설계하고 시공을 하였으나 장기적인 관점에서 LID 시설의 효과를 평가하여 도시 계획 단계에서 반영하지는 못하였다. 그리고 이들 개별 LID 시설(침투, 저류 등)에 대한 단위 시설의 규모 설계에 그치고 있어 개선 시설이 다중으로 조합되어 분산 계획되었을 경우, 유역 규모에서 물순환의 긍정적인 변화를 판단하기는 어려운 형편이다. 도시지역에서의 LID(Low Impact Development) 효과 분석과 연계된 유역 물순환 해석을 위하여 독일, 호주 및 미국에서는 STORM, Urban Developer, SUSTAIN(System for Urban Stromwater Treatment, and Analysis INtegratration) 및 SWMM LID(Storm Wastewater Management Model LID) 등의 모형을 출시하고 실무에 적용하고 있다. 그러나, 해외에서 개발된 기술은 국내의 유역 환경을 충분히 반영하기 어렵다. 저수지 혹은 하천에서의 취수 등과 같이 국내의 복잡한 물순환 형태를 반영하는데 한계가 있으며, 기존의 물순환 해석모형에 의한 LID 시설을 계획하는 방법은 홍수저감에 국한되어 있고, 하천 유량이나 지하수위 측정 자료가 부족한 대상지역에 대한 장기적인 유역 물순환 및 도시 개발과 같은 토지이용 변화가 물순환에 미치는 영향을 해석하는데 있어 제한이 있고, 개별적으로 설치된 LID 시설들이 유역의 물순환을 개선하는 효과를 종합적, 정량적으로 구현하는데 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 도시 개발 지역의 장기간에 걸친 물순환의 변화를 예측하고 물순환을 개선시키는 대안 시설의 효과를 사전에 평가하는 것을 목표로 김현준 등(한국건설기술연구원, 2011)이 개발한 유역 물순환 해석 모형인 CAT(Catchment hydrologic cycle Assessment Tool)을 이용하였다. 특히, CAT은 사용자의 목적에 맞는 다양한 물순환 개선시설(침투시설, 저류지, 습지, 빗물저장 시설, 리사이클 및 외부급수 등)의 구현 및 모의가 가능하도록 개발되었다. 대상유역으로는 경기도 Y지구를 선정하였으며 도시개발 시나리오(전원도시 및 산업도시 등)에 따른 LID 효과 분석을 실시하였다. 대상지역에 대한 도시유형별 개발계획에 따른 개발 전 후 물순환 변화량 분석 및 LID 시설 계획에 의한 물순환 개선효과를 살펴보면 1998년부터 2007년까지의 평균 강우량을 1,271mm라고 할 때 산업도시의 경우 도시 개발 전의 증발산, 직접유출 및 기저유출은 각각 53%, 29%, 19%로 나타났으며 도시 개발 후 35%, 54%, 12%로 직접유출이 개발 전에 비해 86%나 증가하여 개발에 따른 영향이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 따라서, 이러한 개발에 따른 영향을 최소화하기 위하여 LID 시설을 계획하여 효과를 분석한 결과 증발산, 직접유출, 기저유출이 44%, 34%, 13%로 나타나 도시 개발 후의 왜곡된 물순환 체계가 개발전의 수준과 근접하게 나타나 LID 시설의 긍정적인 효과를 검토할 수 있었다. 이상에서와 같이 CAT 모형을 사용하여 도시유역의 물순환 체계를 진단하고, LID 시설의 효과를 평가할 수 있게 됨으로써 향후 도시유역에 대한 물순환 정상화를 실현하기 위한 정책 수립에 기초자료를 제공하고, 설계 실무에 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

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The Major Common Technology Field Analysis of Domestic Mobile Carriers based on Patent Information Data (특허 자료 정보 기반 국내 이동통신 사업자 주요 공통 기술 분야 분석)

  • Kim, Jang-Eun;Cho, Yu-Seup;Kim, Young-Rae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.723-737
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    • 2017
  • In order to decide the national technical standards policy for national policy/market economy activities, the people in charge commonly make policy decisions based on the current technology level/concentration/utilization by means of major common technology field analysis using patent data. One possible source of such patent data is the domestic mobile carriers through the Korea Intellectual Property Rights Information System (KIPRIS) of the Korean Intellectual Property Office (KIPO). Using this system, we collected 20,294 patents and 152 International Patent Classification (IPC) types and confirmed KTs (9,738 cases / 47.98%), which perform relatively high technology retention activities compared to other mobile carriers through the KIPRIS of KIPO. Based on these data, we performed three analyses (SNA, PCA, ARIMA) and extracted 30 IPC types from the SNA and 4 IPC types from the PCA. Based on the above analysis results, we confirmed that 4 IPC (H04W, H04B, G06Q, H04L) types are the major common technology field of the domestic mobile carriers. Finally, the number of 4 IPC (H04W, H04B, G06Q, H04L) forecast averages of the ARIMA forecast result is lower than the number of existing time series patent data averages.

The Effects of Critical Thinking Disposition and Problem Solving Ability on the Work Performance Assessment of Dental Hygienists (치과위생사의 비판적 사고 성향과 문제 해결 능력이 직무 수행 능력에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Ji-Eun;Lee, Su-Young;Kim, Hyun-Jin
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.275-282
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to improve work performance conducted at an actual clinical site by determining the relationship among critical thinking disposition, problem solving ability, and work performance. In this study, 335 dental hygienists completed self-administered survey. Final analysis was conducted with a total of 331 responses, excluding 4 questionnaire with unreliable responses and non-responses. The results indicated that as the age, educational background, and work experience of the subjects increased, their critical thinking disposition and problem solving ability scores increased and were statistically significant. For work performance, average total score was high for age, educational background and work experience, but only age and work experience were statistically significant. Critical thinking disposition, problem solving ability and work performance of the subject were relevant, and all of them were significant. Work performance was also influenced indirectly by mediating problem solving ability in critical thinking disposition. In other words, both direct and indirect effects were significant, and the existence of partial moderating effect was verified. Thus, in order to improve work performance of dental hygienists, a multilevel educational process that can simultaneously improve critical thinking disposition and problem solving ability of dental hygienists needs to be developed. Therefore, it is expected that the new dental hygiene company will be able to perform without any sense of disparity in the clinical field; this will solve the gap between dental hygiene education and practical skills.

The Price Discovery ana Volatility Spillover of Won/Dollar Futures (통화선물의 가격예시 기능과 변동성 전이효과)

  • Kim, Seok-Chin;Do, Young-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.49-67
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    • 2006
  • This study examines whether won/dollar futures have price discovery function and volatility spillover effect or not, using intraday won/dollar futures prices, volumes, and spot rates for the interval from March 2, 2005 through May 30, 2005. Futures prices and spot rates are non-stationary, but there is the cointegration relationship between two time series. Futures returns, spot returns, and volumes are stationary. Asymmetric effects on volatility in futures returns and spot returns does not exist. Analytical results of mean equations of the BGARCH-EC (bivariate GARCH-error correction) model show that the increase of futures returns raise spot returns after 5 minutes, which implies that futures returns lead spot returns and won/dollar futures have price discovery function. In addition, the long-run equilibrium relationship between the two returns could help forecast spot returns. Analytical results of variance equations indicate that short-run innovations in the futures market positively affect the conditional variances of spot returns, that is, there is the volatility spillover effect in the won/dollar futures market. A dummy variable of volumes does not have an effect on two returns but influences significantly on two conditional variances.

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Fetal Bio Index Difference Analysis by Country and Quadratic Regression Model Design for The Gestational Age Prediction (태아 생체지표 국가별 차이분석 및 임신주수 예측의 2차 회귀모형 설계)

  • Kim, Changsoo;Yang, Sung-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.8
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    • pp.685-691
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    • 2020
  • Standard values for fetal bio index measurements should be applied differently depending on the past present and general characteristics of the target population. Therefore, we tried to predict the number of gestational week(GA) and analyze the differences by country based on the measurements of Korean fetal bio index. 480 fetal bio index measurements between 15~38 weeks of pregnancy using ultrasound were compared retrospectively with USA ad Japanese data. One Way ANOVA was used for the analysis of differences by country, and quadratic regression model was designed to predict the GA of fetal bio index in order to predict the standard pregnancy number of Korean fetuses(p<0.005). Mean difference in the 95% confidence interval is BPD was Korea and USA 0.17, Korea and Japan 0.11, AC was Korea and USA -0.35, Korea and Japan 0.42, FL was Korea and USA -0.18, Korea and Japan 0.14. Therefore, fetal bio index for GA predict is considered to be the standard of the fetal growth assessment by applying the country specific standard in consideration of differences between races.

Effects of On-Line Community Assisted Team Learning Activities on University Students' Academic Achievement and on the Scores of Shared Mental Model Subscales (온라인 커뮤니티 보조의 팀 학습이 대학생들의 학업성취도와 공유된 정신모형에 미치는 효과)

  • Jun, Myong-Nam;Park, Hye-Sook
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.541-552
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of the study was to investigate the effects of On-Line Community Assisted Team Learning (OCATL) activities on academic achievement and team member's Shared Mental Model(SMM) subscale scores. Two studies were conducted over two semesters in different universities. The first study was aimed at examining the effects of OCATL on university students' academic achievement using pre- and post- experimental design. For this experiment, 133 university students composed of 80 male and 53 female students from 13 colleges participated. The OCATL activities included the orientation of OCATL, seminar on collaborative learning, on-line community assisted team learning with sixteen hour participation during one semester and a final report (or a term paper). To measure these students' academic achievement, their pre- and post-semester's GPA were compared. The results of paired t-test revealed a significant difference in academic achievement (p<.05). The second study was designed to compare the scores of SMM subscales of the experimental group with the OCATL activities and those of the control group without using OCATL activities. The data was collected using the scale of Shared Mental Model(SMM)-short version developed by Johnson in 2011[18]. For this study, 74 participants from 10 teams served as an experimental group and 15 teams which were not exposed to OCATL activities served as a control group. The MANOVA results showed that SMM subscores of two groups measured after the experiment were statistically significantly different: The experimental group with the OCATL activities showed high scores on general task and team knowledge, general task and communication skills, attitudes toward team and task, team dynamics and interactions, team resources and working environment, and satisfaction with the team.

A study on the hand washing practice of a clinical nurse in a hospital based on health belief model (건강신념모형을 적용한 일개 병원 임상간호사의 손씻기 수행도에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Ga-Hyun;Kwon, Yong-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.532-539
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    • 2018
  • This study is a descriptive study to analyze the hand washing practice of nurses working in clinic applying health belief model. This research involved 162 clinical nurse at G city. The data were collected from Sep 1, 2017 to Oct 31, 2017. The collected data were analyzed using an independent t-test, 1-way ANOVA, pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple regression analysis, where p-values of <0.05 were considered statistically significant by using SPSS 20.0. The overall practice of hand washing by general subjects were high 3.1 in all subjects, but there was no statistically significant difference. Health beliefs about hand washing practice according to general characteristics showed significant difference in perceived benefits (p<0.05), and there was a significant difference in perceived benefits and perceived barriers in age(p<0.05). In regard to the correlation among the subfactor of health beliefs, benefits had a statistically significant negative correlation to barriers and, positively correlated to cues to action. The results of this study suggest that continuing education of infection management in hospitals considering health beliefs about proper hand washing training will enhance hand washing practice.

An Analysis on the Asymmetric Time Varying Spillover Effect between Capesize and Panamax Markets (케이프사이즈와 파나막스 시장간의 비대칭 시간가변 파급효과에 관한 분석)

  • Chung, Sang-Kuck
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.41-64
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    • 2011
  • This article investigates the interrelationships in daily returns using fractionally integrated error correction term and volatilities using constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation GARCH with asymmetries between Capesize and Panamax markets. Our findings are as follows. First, for the fractionally cointegrated error correction model, there is a unidirectional relationship in returns from the Panamax market to the Capesize market, but a bidirectional causal relationship prevails for the traditional error correction models. Second, the coefficients for the error correction term are all statistically significant. Of particular interest are the signs of the estimates for the error correction term, which are all negative for the Capesize return equation and all positive for the Panamax return. Third, there are bidirectional volatility spillovers between both markets and the direction of the information flow seems to be stronger from Panamax to Capesize. Fourth, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significantly positive in the Capesize market, but the Panamax market does not have a significant effect. However, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significant, implying that the leverage effect does exist in the Capesize and Panamax markets.

SRC-Stat Package for Fitting Double Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models (이중 다단계 일반화 선형모형 적합을 위한 SRC-stat의 사용)

  • Noh, Maengseok;Ha, Il Do;Lee, Youngjo;Lim, Johan;Lee, Jaeyong;Oh, Heeseok;Shin, Dongwan;Lee, Sanggoo;Seo, Jinuk;Park, Yonhtae;Cho, Sungzoon;Park, Jonghun;Kim, Youkyung;You, Kyungsang
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.343-351
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    • 2015
  • We introduce how to fit random effects models via a SRC-Stat statistical package. This package has been developed to fit double hierarchical generalized linear models where mean and dispersion parameters for the variance of random effects and residual variance (overdispersion) can be modeled as random-effect models. The estimates of fixed effects, random effects and variances are calculated by a hierarchical likelihood method. We illustrate the use of our package with practical data-sets.