• Title/Summary/Keyword: 편의 오차

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Estimation of reflectivity-rainfall relationship parameters and uncertainty assessment for high resolution rainfall information (고해상도 강수정보 생산을 위한 레이더 반사도-강수량 관계식 매개변수 보정 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.321-334
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    • 2021
  • A fixed reflectivity-rainfall relationship approach, such as the Marshall-Palmer relationship, for an entire year and different seasons, can be problematic in cases where the relationship varies spatially and temporally throughout a region. From this perspective, this study explores the use of long-term radar reflectivity for South Korea to obtain a nationwide calibrated Z-R relationship and the associated uncertainties within a Bayesian inference framework. A calibrated spatially structured pattern in the parameters exists, particularly for the wet season and parameter for the dry season. A pronounced region of high values during the wet and dry seasons may be partially associated with storm movements in that season. Overall, the radar rainfall fields based on the proposed modeling procedure are similar to the observed rainfall fields. In contrast, the radar rainfall fields obtained from the existing Marshall-Palmer relationship show a systematic underestimation. In the event of high impact weather, it is expected that the value of national radar resources can be improved by establishing an active watershed-level hydrological analysis system.

Retrieval Biases Analysis on Estimation of GNSS Precipitable Water Vapor by Tropospheric Zenith Hydrostatic Models (GNSS 가강수량 추정시 건조 지연 모델에 의한 복원 정밀도 해석)

  • Nam, JinYong;Song, DongSeob
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.233-242
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    • 2019
  • ZHD (Zenith Hydrostatic Delay) model is important parameter in estimating of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) PWV (Precipitable Water Vapor) along with weighted mean temperature. The ZWD (Zenith Wet Delay) is tend to accumulate the ZHD error, so that biases from ZHD will be affected on the precision of GNSS PWV. In this paper, we compared the accuracy of GNSS PWV with radiosonde PWV using three ZHD models, such as Saastamoinen, Hopfield, and Black. Also, we adopted the KWMT (Korean Weighted Mean Temperature) model and the mean temperature which was observed by radiosonde on the retrieval processing of GNSS PWV. To this end, GNSS observation data during one year were processed to produce PWVs from a total of 5 GNSS permanent stations in Korea, and the GNSS PWVs were compared with radiosonde PWVs for the evaluating of biases. The PWV biases using mean temperature estimated by the KWMT model are smaller than radiosonde mean temperature. Also, we could confirm the result that the Saastamoinen ZHD which is most used in the GNSS meteorology is not valid in South Korea, because it cannot be exclude the possibility of biases by latitude or height of GNSS station.

A Study on the Thermal Flow Analysis for Heat Performance Improvement of a Wireless Power Charger (열 유동해석을 통한 무선충전기 발열 성능 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Pyeong-Jun;Park, Dong-Kyou
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.310-316
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    • 2019
  • In automotive application, customers are demanding high efficiency and various functions for convenience. The demand for these automotive applications is steadily increasing. In this study, it has been studied the analysis of heat flow to improve the PCB(printed circuit board) heating performance of WPC (wireless power charger) recently developed for convenience. The charging performance of the wireless charger has been reduced due to power dissipation and thermal resistance of PCB. Therefore, it has been proposed optimal PCB design, layout and position of electronic parts through the simulation of heat flow analysis and PCB design was analyzed and decided at each design stage. Then, the experimental test is performed to verify the consistency of the analysis results under actual environmental conditions. In this paper, The PCB modeling and heat flow simulation in transient response were performed using HyperLynx Thermal and FloTHERM. In addition, the measurement was performed using infrared thermal imaging camera and used to verify the analysis results. In the final comparison, the error between analysis and experiment was found to be less than 10 % and the heating performance of PCB was also improved.

Analysis of Occupational Therapy Intervention Research for Improving Memory: Focus on Single-Subject Research Design in Korean Academic Journals (기억력 향상을 위한 작업치료 중재 연구 분석: 국내 단일대상연구 중심으로)

  • Jung, Yu-Jin;Choi, Yoo-Im
    • Therapeutic Science for Rehabilitation
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.39-52
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    • 2021
  • Objective : This study aimed to identify the characteristics and analyze the quality of studies on memory improvement using a single-subject research design. Methods : Six studies were selected through the Research Information Sharing Service (RISS), Korean Studies Information Service System (KISS), and National Digital Science Library (NDSL). Keywords were memory training, stroke, early dementia, mild cognitive impairment, and single-subject research design. The characteristics and quality levels were analyzed between January 2011 and October 2020. Results : Regarding the quality level, the middle level (7-10 points) was 66.7% of the four articles, and the high level (11-14 points) was 33.3% of the two articles. Reversal designs were used in all studies. Independent variables were errorless learning, smartphone application, cognitive training system (CoTras), spaced retrieval training (SRT) with errorless learning, spaced retrieval training, and iPad applications. The dependent variables included memory, attention, electroencephalogram, instrumental activities of daily living, depression etc., which increased after the intervention. The total session, study period, and intervention time were varied. Conclusion : In single-subject research design related to memory training, occupational therapy intervention was confirmed as an effective method for improving memory and attention. The quality level of single-subject research design was moderate or higher, and high-quality level of studies should be conducted by additional design to increase the validity in the future.

Development of Geometrical Quality Control Real-time Analysis Program using an Electronic Portal Imaging (전자포탈영상을 이용한 기하학적 정도관리 실시간 분석 프로그램의 개발)

  • Lee, Sang-Rok;Jung, Kyung-Yong;Jang, Min-Sun;Lee, Byung-Gu;Kwon, Young-Ho
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.77-84
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: To develop a geometrical quality control real-time analysis program using an electronic portal imaging to replace film evaluation method. Materials and Methods: A geometrical quality control item was established with the Eclipse treatment planning system (Version 8.1, Varian, USA) after the Electronic Portal Imaging Device (EPID) took care of the problems occurring from the fixed substructure of the linear accelerator (CL-iX, Varian, USA). Electronic portal image (single exposure before plan) was created at the treatment room's 4DTC (Version 10.2, Varian, USA) and a beam was irradiated in accordance with each item. The gaining the entire electronic portal imaging at the Off-line review and was evaluated by a self-developed geometrical quality control real-time analysis program. As for evaluation methods, the intra-fraction error was analyzed by executing 5 times in a row under identical conditions and procedures on the same day, and in order to confirm the infer-fraction error, it was executed for 10 days under identical conditions of all procedures and was compared with the film evaluation method using an Iso-align$^{TM}$ quality control device. Measurement and analysis time was measured by sorting the time into from the device setup to data achievement and the time amount after the time until the completion of analysis and the convenience of the users and execution processes were compared. Results: The intra-fraction error values for each average 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.2 mm at light-radiation field coincidence, collimator rotation axis, couch rotation axis and gantry rotation axis. By checking the infer-fraction error through 10 days of continuous quality control, the error values obtained were average 1.7, 1.4, 0.7, 1.1 mm for each item. Also, the measurement times were average 36 minutes, 15 minutes for the film evaluation method and electronic portal imaging system, and the analysis times were average 30 minutes, 22 minutes. Conclusion: When conducting a geometrical quality control using an electronic portal imaging, it was found that it is efficient as a quality control tool. It not only reduces costs through not using films, but also reduces the measurement and analysis time which enhances user convenience and can improve the execution process by leaving out film developing procedures etc. Also, images done with evaluation from the self-developed geometrical quality control real-time analysis program, data processing is capable which supports the storage of information.

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An Empirical Study of Financial Analyst's Forecasting Activities on the Firm's Operating Performances (기업실적에 대한 재무분석가의 예측활동에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kwak, Jae-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.93-124
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    • 2003
  • This paper studies the financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance during the period from 1999 to 2003. In this study, financial analyst's forecasting activities are focused on the sales, operating income and net income and financial analyst's forecasting accuracy, forecasting revising patterns and forecasting activities to the unexpected firm's operating performance are studied. Some empirical findings in this study are as follows. First, standard estimate error on the sales, operating income and net income are all significantly negative value and so financial analyst's forecast on the firm's operating performance are upwardly biased. Second, domestic financial analyst's forecasting activities is relatively more accuracy than foreign financial analyst's forecasting activities. Third, forecasting time is more close to the end of the operating performance announcement day, forecasting activities are more accuracy. Fourth, comparing with individual financial analyst's forecast, consensus forecast is more accuracy. Fifth, in the comparative forecasting activities study according to the prior firm's operating performance, financial analyst's forecasting revision activities are found to be upward or downward. Sixth, financial analysts overreact in the sales forecast and underreact in the operating income and net income forecast. Seventh, in the empirical analysis on the Easterwood-Nutt's test model(1999) which the firm's performance change are divided into the expected performance change and the unexpected performance change, it is found that financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance are systematically optimistic.

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Estimation of Total Cloud Amount from Skyviewer Image Data (Skyviewer 영상 자료를 이용한 전운량 산출)

  • Kim, Bu-Yo;Jee, Joon-Bum;Jeong, Myeong-Jae;Zo, Il-Sung;Lee, Kyu-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.330-340
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    • 2015
  • For this study, we developed an algorithm to estimate the total amount of clouds using sky image data from the Skyviewer equipped with CCD camera. Total cloud amount is estimated by removing mask areas of RGB (Red Green Blue) images, classifying images according to frequency distribution of GBR (Green Blue Ratio), and extracting cloud pixels from them by deciding RBR (Red Blue Ratio) threshold. Total cloud amount is also estimated by validity checks after removing sunlight area from those classified cloud pixels. In order to verify the accuracy of the algorithm that estimates total cloud amount, the research analyzed Bias, RMSE, and correlation coefficient compared to records of total cloud amount earned by human observation from the Gangwon Regional Meteorological Administration, which is in the closest vicinity of the observation site. The cases are selected four daily data from 0800 LST to 1700 LST for each season. The results of analysis showed that the Bias in total cloud amount estimated by the Skyviewer was an average of -0.8 tenth, and the RMSE was 1.6 tenths, indicating the difference in total cloud amount within 2 tenths. Also, correlation coefficient was very high, marking an average of over 0.91 in all cases, despite the distance between the two observation sites (about 4 km).

Comparison of Plotting Position Formulas for Gumbel Distribution (Gumbel 분포에 대한 도시위치공식의 비교)

  • Kim, Soo-Young;Heo, Jun-Haeng;Shin, Hong-Joon;Kho, Youn-Woo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.365-374
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    • 2009
  • Probability plotting positions are used for the graphical display of annual maximum rainfall or flood series and the estimation of exceedance probability of those values. In addition, plotting positions allow a visual examination of the fitness of probability distribution provided by frequency analysis for a given data. Therefore, the graphical approach using plotting position has been applied to many fields of hydrology and water resources planning. In this study, the plotting position formula for the Gumbel distribution is derived by using the order statistics and the probability weight moment of the Gumbel distribution for various sample sizes. And then, the parameters of plotting position formula for the Gumbel distribution are estimated by using genetic algorithm. The appropriate plotting position formulas for the Gumbel distribution are examined by the comparison of root mean square errors and biases between theoretical reduced Gumbel variates and those calculated from derived and existing plotting position formulas. As the results, Gringorten's plotting position formula has the smaller root mean square errors and biases than any other formulas.

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Esherichia coli O157:H7 Growth in Paprika (파프리카에서 병원성 대장균의 성장예측 모델 개발 및 검증)

  • Yun, Hyejeong;Kim, Juhui;Park, Kyeonghun;Ryu, Kyoung-Yul;Kim, Byung Seok
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.168-173
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    • 2013
  • This study was carried out to develop and validate predictive models of E. coli O157:H7 growth. Growth data of E. coli O157:H7 in Paprika were collected at 12, 24, 30 and $36^{\circ}C$. The population increased into 3.0 to 3.8 log10 CFU/g within 4 days, then continued to increase at a slower rate through 10 days of storage at $12^{\circ}C$. The lag time (LT) and maximum specific growth rate (SGR) obtained from each primary model was then modeled as a function of temperature using Davey and square root equations, respectively. For interpolation of performance evaluation, growth data for a mixture of E. coli O157:H7 were collected at time intervals in paprika incubated at the different temperatures, which was not used in model development. Results of model performance for interpolation data demonstrated that induced secondary models showed acceptable goodness of fit. Relative errors in the LT and SGR model for interpolation data (18 and $27^{\circ}C$) was 100%, which show acceptable goodness of fit and validated for interpolation. The primary and secondary models developed in this study can be used to establish tertiary models to quantify the effects of temperature on the growth of E. coli O157:H7 in paprika.

Estimation of Heading Date for Rice Cultivars Using ORYZA (v3) (ORYZA (v3) 모델을 사용한 벼 품종별 출수기 예측)

  • Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.246-251
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    • 2017
  • Crop models have been used to predict a heading date for efficient management of fertilizer application. Recently, the ORYZA (v3) model was developed to improve the ORYZA2000 model, which has been used for simulation of rice growth in Korea. Still, little effort has been made to assess applicability of the ORYZA (v3) model to rice farms in Korea. The objective of this study was to evaluate reliability of heading dates predicted using the the ORYZA (v3) model, which would indicate applicability of the model to a decision support system for fertilizer application. Field experiments were conducted from 2015-2016 at the Rural Development Administration (RDA) to obtain rice phenology data. Shindongjin cultivar which is mid-late maturity type was grown under a conventional fertilizer management, e.g., application of fertilizer at the rate of 11 Kg N/10a. Another set of heading dates was obtained from annual reports at experiment farms operated by the National Institute of Crop Science and Agricultural Technology Centers in each province. The input files for the ORYZA (v3) model were prepared using weather and soil data collected from the Korean Meteorology Administration (KMA) and the Korean Soil Information System, respectively. Input parameters for crop management, e.g., transplanting date and planting density, were set to represent management used for the field experiment. The ORYZA (v3) model predicted heading date within 1 day for two seasons. The crop model also had a relatively small error in prediction of heading date for three ecotypes of rice cultivars at experiment farms where weather input data were obtained from a near-by weather station. Those results suggested that the ORYZA (v3) model would be useful for development of a decision support system for fertilizer application when reliable input data for weather variables become available.