• Title/Summary/Keyword: 토지이용 변화 예측

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Development of a Traffic Accident Prediction Model and Determination of the Risk Level at Signalized Intersection (신호교차로에서의 사고예측모형개발 및 위험수준결정 연구)

  • 홍정열;도철웅
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2002
  • Since 1990s. there has been an increasing number of traffic accidents at intersection. which requires more urgent measures to insure safety on intersection. This study set out to analyze the road conditions, traffic conditions and traffic operation conditions on signalized intersection. to identify the elements that would impose obstructions in safety, and to develop a traffic accident prediction model to evaluate the safety of an intersection using the cop relation between the elements and an accident. In addition, the focus was made on suggesting appropriate traffic safety policies by dealing with the danger elements in advance and on enhancing the safety on the intersection in developing a traffic accident prediction model fir a signalized intersection. The data for the study was collected at an intersection located in Wonju city from January to December 2001. It consisted of the number of accidents, the road conditions, the traffic conditions, and the traffic operation conditions at the intersection. The collected data was first statistically analyzed and then the results identified the elements that had close correlations with accidents. They included the area pattern, the use of land, the bus stopping activities, the parking and stopping activities on the road, the total volume, the turning volume, the number of lanes, the width of the road, the intersection area, the cycle, the sight distance, and the turning radius. These elements were used in the second correlation analysis. The significant level was 95% or higher in all of them. There were few correlations between independent variables. The variables that affected the accident rate were the number of lanes, the turning radius, the sight distance and the cycle, which were used to develop a traffic accident prediction model formula considering their distribution. The model formula was compared with a general linear regression model in accuracy. In addition, the statistics of domestic accidents were investigated to analyze the distribution of the accidents and to classify intersections according to the risk level. Finally, the results were applied to the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient to see if the model was appropriate. As a result, the coefficient of determination was highly significant with the value of 0.985 and the ranks among the intersections according to the risk level were appropriate too. The actual number of accidents and the predicted ones were compared in terms of the risk level and they were about the same in the risk level for 80% of the intersections.

Implementation of Saemangeum Coastal Environmental Information System Using GIS (지리정보시스템을 이용한 새만금 해양환경정보시스템 구축)

  • Kim, Jin-Ah;Kim, Chang-Sik;Park, Jin-Ah
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.128-136
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    • 2011
  • To monitor and predict the change of coastal environment according to the construction of Saemangeum sea dyke and the development of land reclamation, we have done real-time and periodic ocean observation and numerical simulation since 2002. Saemangeum coastal environmental data can be largely classified to marine meteorology, ocean physics and circulation, water quality, marine geology and marine ecosystem and each part of data has been generated continuously and accumulated over about 10 years. The collected coastal environmental data are huge amounts of heterogeneous dataset and have some characteristics of multi-dimension, multivariate and spatio-temporal distribution. Thus the implementation of information system possible to data collection, processing, management and service is necessary. In this study, through the implementation of Saemangeum coastal environmental information system using geographic information system, it enables the integral data collection and management and the data querying and analysis of enormous and high-complexity data through the design of intuitive and effective web user interface and scientific data visualization using statistical graphs and thematic cartography. Furthermore, through the quantitative analysis of trend changed over long-term by the geo-spatial analysis with geo- processing, it's being used as a tool for provide a scientific basis for sustainable development and decision support in Saemangeum coast. Moreover, for the effective web-based information service, multi-level map cache, multi-layer architecture and geospatial database were implemented together.

A Study on the Displacement Behavior according to the Analysis Model of Ground Excavation (지반굴착 해석모델에 따른 변위거동에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Jeeseung;Shin, Youngwan;Kim, Manhwa;Kook, Yunmo;Jeong, Kyukyung;Kim, Pilsoo;Lee, Sanghwan
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.27-32
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    • 2018
  • There were many ground excavation projects from past to present to make effective use of the limited land. And it is very important to predict the ground behavior depending on construction stage for ground excavation. Excavation of the ground involves changes in the stress and displacement of the ground around the excavated surface. Thus it affects the stability of the adjacent structure as well as the excavated surface. Therefore, it is very important to predict the ground behavior and stability of adjacent structure. And nowadays, numerical analysis methods are most often used to predict the effects of ground excavation. Recent, improvements of numerical analysis programs, along with improved computer performance, have helped solve complicated ground problems. However, except some specialized numerical analysis, most numerical analysis often predicts larger excavation floor displacement than field data due to adopt the Mohr-Coulomb analysis model. As a result, it raise the problem that increasing the amount of support on ground and structure. In this study, ground behavior analysis depending on analysis model (Mohr-Coulomb, Duncan-Chang, Modified Mohr-Coulomb and Hardening Soil model) has been carried out through the numerical analysis. When numerical analysis is carried out, this study is expected to be used as a basic data for adopting a suitable analysis model in various ground excavation project.

The Development and Application of the Officetel Price Index in Seoul Based on Transaction Data (실거래가를 이용한 서울시 오피스텔 가격지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-45
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    • 2021
  • Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.

Prediction of Land-cover Change in the Gongju Areas using Fuzzy Logic and Geo-spatial Information (퍼지 논리와 지리공간정보를 이용한 공주지역 토지피복 변화 예측)

  • Jang, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.387-402
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    • 2005
  • In this study, we tried to predict the change of future land-cover and relationships between land-cover change and geo-spatial information in the Gongju area by using fuzzy logic operation. Quantitative evaluation of prediction models was carried out using a prediction rate curve using. Based on the analysis of correlations between the geo-spatial information and land-cover change, the class with the highest correlation was extracted. Fuzzy operations were used to predict land-cover change and determine the land-cover prediction maps that were the most suitable. It was predicted that in urban areas, the urban expansion of old and new towns would occur centering on the Gem-river, and that urbanization of areas along the interchange and national roads would also expand. Among agricultural areas, areas adjacent to national roads connected to small tributaries of the Gem-river and neighboring areas would likely experience changes. Most of the forest areas are located in southeast and from this result we can guess why the wide chestnut-tree cultivation complex is located in these areas and the possibility of forest damage is very high. As a result of validation using the prediction rate curve, it was indicated that among fuzzy operators, the maximum fuzzy operator was the most suitable for analyzing land-cover change in urban and agricultural areas. Other fuzzy operators resulted in the similar prediction capabilities. However, in the prediction rate curve of integrated models for land-cover prediction in the forest areas, most fuzzy operators resulted in poorer prediction capabilities. Thus, it is necessary to apply new thematic maps or prediction models in connection with the effective prediction of changes in the forest areas.

Development of a distributed daily streamflow simulated model and evaluation of its applicability (분포형 물수지 유출 모형의 개발 및 적용성 검토)

  • Hong, Woo-Yong;Park, Geun-Ae;Jung, In-Kyun;Park, Min-Ji;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.1154-1158
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    • 2010
  • 최근 전 세계적으로 GIS (Geographic Information Science) 및 RS (Remote Sensing) 데이터 등 디지털정보의 구축이 급속도로 진행되고 있고, 이들의 발달로 유역에 대한 정확하고 상세한 각종 수문매개변수 수집이 가능하여 유역을 부분유역으로 분할한 기존의 집중형 수문모형보다 유역내의 공간적인 유량변동을 보다 상세하게 고려할 수 있는 격자기반의 분포형 수문모형의 활용도가 높아지고 있다. 유역의 수문특성 및 지형특성을 동일한 매개변수로 적용하기 때문에 유역의 공간적인 수문 및 지형특성을 표현하기 어려운 집중형 모형과 달리 강우-유출해석에 있어서 분포형 모형은 실제 복잡한 유역에서의 유출과정 또는 물질의 수문순환과정을 잘 이해할 수 있고, 어떤 유역의 토지이용형태의 변화가 초래하는 영향과 효과를 사전에 예측할 수 있으며, 신뢰성 있는 과거의 수문자료가 없거나 부족한 유역에서의 유출 계산이 용이하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 Fortran 90을 개발언어로 사용하여 GIS Data와 위성영상을 활용해 유출량을 모의하는 분포형 물수지 유출 모형을 개발하여 금강 상류유역인 용담댐 유역($930km^2$)을 대항으로 2000~2008년의 일 유출량을 모의하였다. 모형은 크게 3개의 모듈(유출량, 증발산량, 토양수분) 형태로 구성되었으며, 유출량은 강우 전 토양의 저류능을 추적하여 산정하였다. 모형의 결과는 셀별 값을 가지는 분포형으로 출력되며, 유역의 평균 수문자료가 Text file로 출력된다. 민감도 분석을 통하여 최적의 유출 관련 매개 변수를 선정하고 하류의 댐 유입량 자료를 바탕으로 모형의 보정(2001-2004) 및 검증(2005-2008)을 실시하였다. 유출량에 대한 Nash-Sutcliffe 모형효율은 0.78~0.93로 모의치가 실측치의 경향을 잘 표현하는 것으로 나타났다. 유출량 분포도는 강우량을 매우 잘 반영하였으며, 같은 강우조건하에서 토양의 배수조건에 따라 유출이 확연히 다르게 표현되었다.

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Impervious Surface Estimation of Jungnangcheon Basin Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Classification and Regression Tree (위성원격탐사와 분류 및 회귀트리를 이용한 중랑천 유역의 불투수층 추정)

  • Kim, Sooyoung;Heo, Jun-Haeng;Heo, Joon;Kim, SungHoon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6D
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    • pp.915-922
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    • 2008
  • Impervious surface is an important index for the estimation of urbanization and the assessment of environmental change. In addition, impervious surface influences on short-term rainfall-runoff model during rainy season in hydrology. Recently, the necessity of impervious surface estimation is increased because the effect of impervious surface is increased by rapid urbanization. In this study, impervious surface estimation is performed by using remote sensing image such as Landsat-7 ETM+image with $30m{\times}30m$ spatial resolution and satellite image with $1m{\times}1m$ spatial resolution based on Jungnangcheon basin. A tasseled cap transformation and NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index) transformation are applied to Landsat-7 ETM+ image to collect various predict variables. Moreover, the training data sets are collected by overlaying between Landsat-7 ETM+ image and satellite image, and CART(classification and regression tree) is applied to the training data sets. As a result, impervious surface prediction model is consisted and the impervious surface map is generated for Jungnangcheon basin.

Analysis of the Effects of Drainage Systems in Wetlands Based on Changes in Groundwater Level, Soil Moisture Content, and Water Quality (지하수위, 토양수분함량 및 수질변화를 활용한 습윤화 지역의 배수시설 효과 평가)

  • Kim, Chang-Hoon;Ryu, Jeong-Ah;Kim, Deog-Geun;Kim, Gyoo-Bum
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.251-260
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    • 2016
  • Groundwater flow due to hydraulic gradients across a geologic barrier surrounding a dam reservoir can cause swamps or wetlands to form on the downstream side of the dam, thereby restricting land use. The difference in head between the reservoir level and the downstream groundwater level creates a hydraulic gradient, allowing water to flow through the geologic barrier. We constructed a drainage system at the Daecheong dam to study the effects on groundwater levels and soil moisture contents. The drainage system consisted of a buried screened pipe spanning a depth of 1-1.5 m below a land surface. Groundwater levels were monitored at several monitoring wells before and after the drainage system was installed. Most well sites recorded a decline in groundwater level on the order of 1 m. The high-elevated site (monitoring well W1) close to the reservoir showed a significant decline in groundwater level of more than 2 m, likely due to rapid discharge by the drainage system. Soil moisture contents were also analyzed and found to have decreased after the installation of the drainage system, even considering standard deviations in the soil moisture contents. We conclude that the drainage system effectively lowered groundwater levels on the downstream side of the dam. Furthermore, we emphasize that water seepage analyses are critical to embankment dam design and construction, especially in areas where downstream land use is of interest.

Restoration of the Stream Runoff by the Physical Deterministic Modeling and Formulation of Water Balance for the Catchment of Byungchun River in Chungcheong Province in Korea (물리 결정 모델링에 의한 충청도 병천천 유역의 하천 유출량 복원과 물 수지 수립)

  • KIM, Man-Kyu
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.37-53
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    • 2008
  • This study has developed a water balance model for the catchment of Byungchun river using a BROOK90 4.4e physical deterministic water balance model with the long-term meterological data and stream run off data obtained from the basin of Byungchun river in Korea. It is intended that the validation model with calibrated model fitting parameter can build a long-term water balance plan for a period when meterological data are available but stream runoff data are not. Results of this study have satisfied the first expectation as an experiment for water balance modeling since measured stream runoff data have turned out to be very similar to simulated stream runoff data. Through the confirmation of model fitting parameters and validated simulation, water balance for the period of 1998 to 2006 has been restored. Unless the conditions of geomophology, vegetation, soil and land use change, meterological data alone can produce various hydrometeorological data related to stream runoff amount, soil water amount, and evapotranspiration. This study opens up a new horizon in restoring water balance in the past as well planning water balance in the present. The obtained results from this study are expected to be used in predicting future water balance in the wake of the changes in climate and vegetation in Korea.

A Study on the Effect of the Urban Regeneration Project on the Reduction of Carbon Emission - A Case Study of Jeonju Test-Bed - (도시재생사업 적용에 따른 탄소저감 효과 - 전주TB지역을 대상으로 -)

  • Park, Kiyong;Lee, Sangeun;Park, Heekyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2016
  • This study mainly focuses on urban regeneration project as a countermeasure to resolve climate change issues by analyzing the carbon-reduction effect of Jeonju test-bed cases. First, an urban regeneration project is designed for city, Jeonju by analyzing its environmental problems and potential improvement. Then, carbon emission and reduction amounts are evaluated for different businesses and scenarios. Carbon emission sources are classified according to a standard suggested by IPCC, and the emissions are calculated by various standard methods. The result shows that carbon emission amount in Jeonju test-bed is 102,149 tCO2eq. The fact that 70% of the emission from energy sector originates from buildings implies that urban regeneration projects can concentrate on building portions to effectively reduce carbon emission. It is also projected carbon emission will decrease by 3,826tCo2eq in 2020 compared to 2011, reduction mainly based on overall population and industry shrinkage. When urban regeneration projects are applied to 5 urban sectors (urban environment, land use, green transportation, low carbon energy, and green buildings) total of 10,628tCO2eq is reduced and 4,857tCO2 (=15.47%) when only applied to the green building sector. Moreover, different carbon reduction scenarios are set up to meet each goal of different sectors. The result shows that scenario A, B, and C each has 5%, 11%, and 15% of carbon reduction, respectively. It is recommended to apply scenario B to achieve 11% reduction goal in a long term. Therefore, this research can be a valuable guideline for planning future urban regeneration projects and relative policies by analyzing the present urban issues and suggesting improvement directions.