• Title/Summary/Keyword: 측정 불확실성

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A Valuation for Gas Hydrate R&D Project Using Fuzzy Real Options Model (퍼지실물옵션모형을 이용한 가스하이드레이트 R&D 사업의 가치평가)

  • Yun, Ga-Hye;Heo, Eunnyeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.217-239
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    • 2009
  • As gas hydrate is recently emerging as a new energy source to solve environmental and exhaustion problems caused by fossil energy, Korea is working on a gas hydrate development project under a 10-year plan from 2005 to 2014. Gas hydrate is expected to have a big effect on the economy and society of Korea, which is largely depending on energy imports besides water energy and atomic energy. However, it is uncertain whether the project will produce successful results. Thus, it is very important to improve its validity and to propose effective execution strategies by evaluating the value of the project in advance. Thus, this study intended to include new information, which had not been evaluated in existing methods, and to reduce biases or errors in value evaluation results by applying a fuzzy risk analysis to the real option model in order to evaluate the value of a gas hydrate development project. It is advantageous that the real option model based on the fuzzy risk analysis modelizes the vagueness and inexactness of intangible element judgment into an appropriate language scale so as to evaluate these elements clearly and integrate them with estimated financial performance results. The application of the fuzzy risk analysis makes it possible to conduct an analysis by dissolving a decision-making issue with complicated and various attributes into several simplified problems. With the continuing high oil prices and today's demand of clean energy, the necessity of energy resources and technology development projects keeps growing. Amid this situation, it is expected that these study results will contribute to proposing a guideline not only for gas hydrate projects but also for policy decision-making related to future energy industries.

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Iodine Isotope Exchanges Between o-lodohippuric Acid and Radioiodide (오르토 요오도히퓨린산과 방사성요오드 이온간의 요오드 등위원소 교환반응)

  • Jae-Rok Kim;Ok-Doo Awh;Hyeon-Sook Koo;Kyung-Bae Park
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.145-152
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    • 1981
  • Even though a lately reported method of high temperature exchange labelling of o-iodo-hippuric acid (Hippuran) in the absence of oxidizing agent was considered to be an attractive one, the exchange mechanism was somewhat unclear. In this study iodine isotope exchanges between o-iodohippuric acid (OIH) and radioiodide ($^{125}$ $I^{ }$) or between OIH and molecular radioiodine ($^{125}$ $I_2$) were carried out at two different temperatures. Rate constants and activation parameters were measured by applying a radio-paper chromatography technique. Since o-iodobenzoic acid is known as a by-product in the exchange labelling of OIH, data were also obtained for the OIB-iodide systems for comparison. The rate constant was increased in the order of OIB...$^{125}$ $I^{[-10]}$ >OIB...$^{125}$ $I_2$>OIH..$^{125}$ $I^{[-10]}$ >OIH...$^{125}$ $I_2$ and the activation parameters for OIH were generally larger than those for OIB :$\Delta$H$\neq$$_{OIH}$>$\Delta$H$\neq$$_{OIB}$, $\Delta$S$\neq$$_{OIH}$>$\Delta$S$\neq$$_{OIB}$. These results suggest that the mechanism of the high temperature exchange is predominantly nucleophilic even though some electrophilic character can also be involved depending upon reaction conditions. Such a fact may well be caused by a feasible formation of hydrogen bonding type transition state due probably to the ortho substituent effect of-CONHC $H_2$COOH. Thus, the high temperature exchange method is estimated to be quite effective for labelling Hippuran especially at a small research center where reducing agent-free $^{131}$ I is unavailable.ailable..

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Change Analysis of Aboveground Forest Carbon Stocks According to the Land Cover Change Using Multi-Temporal Landsat TM Images and Machine Learning Algorithms (다시기 Landsat TM 영상과 기계학습을 이용한 토지피복변화에 따른 산림탄소저장량 변화 분석)

  • LEE, Jung-Hee;IM, Jung-Ho;KIM, Kyoung-Min;HEO, Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.81-99
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    • 2015
  • The acceleration of global warming has required better understanding of carbon cycles over local and regional areas such as the Korean peninsula. Since forests serve as a carbon sink, which stores a large amount of terrestrial carbon, there has been a demand to accurately estimate such forest carbon sequestration. In Korea, the National Forest Inventory(NFI) has been used to estimate the forest carbon stocks based on the amount of growing stocks per hectare measured at sampled location. However, as such data are based on point(i.e., plot) measurements, it is difficult to identify spatial distribution of forest carbon stocks. This study focuses on urban areas, which have limited number of NFI samples and have shown rapid land cover change, to estimate grid-based forest carbon stocks based on UNFCCC Approach 3 and Tier 3. Land cover change and forest carbon stocks were estimated using Landsat 5 TM data acquired in 1991, 1992, 2010, and 2011, high resolution airborne images, and the 3rd, 5th~6th NFI data. Machine learning techniques(i.e., random forest and support vector machines/regression) were used for land cover change classification and forest carbon stock estimation. Forest carbon stocks were estimated using reflectance, band ratios, vegetation indices, and topographical indices. Results showed that 33.23tonC/ha of carbon was sequestrated on the unchanged forest areas between 1991 and 2010, while 36.83 tonC/ha of carbon was sequestrated on the areas changed from other land-use types to forests. A total of 7.35 tonC/ha of carbon was released on the areas changed from forests to other land-use types. This study was a good chance to understand the quantitative forest carbon stock change according to the land cover change. Moreover the result of this study can contribute to the effective forest management.

The Effects of Global Entrepreneurship and Social Capital Within Supply Chain on the Export Performance (글로벌 기업가정신과 공급사슬 내 사회적 자본이 수출성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Yoon, Heon-Deok;Kwak, Ki-Young;Seo, Ri-Bin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2012
  • Under the international business circumstance, global supply chain management is considered a vital strategic challenge to small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) suffering from deficient resources and capabilities to exploit overseas markets comparing with large corporations. That is because they can expand their business domains into overseas markets by establishing strategic alliances with global supply chain partners. Although a wide range of previous researches have emphasized the cooperative networks in the chain, most are ignoring the importance of developing relational characteristics such as trust and reciprocity with the partners. Besides, verifying the relational factors influencing firms' export performances, some studies proposed different and inconsistent factors. According to the social capital theory, which is the social quality and networks facilitating close cooperation of inter-individual and inter-organization, provides the integrated view to identify the relational characteristics in the aspects of network, trust and reciprocal norm. Meanwhile, a number of researchers shows that global entrepreneurship is the internal and intangible resource necessary to promote SMEs' internationalization. Upon closer examination, however, they cannot explain clearly its influencing mechanism in the inter-firm cooperative relationships. This study is to verify the effect of social capital accumulated within global supply chain on SMEs' qualitative and quantitative export performance. In addition, we shed new light on global entrepreneurship expected to be concerned with the formation of social capital and the enhancement of export performances. For this purpose, the questionnaires, developed through literature review, were collected from 192 Korean SMEs affiliated in Korean Medium Industries Association and Global Chief Executive Officer's Club focusing on their memberships' international business. As a result of multi-regression analysis, the social capital - network, trust and reciprocal norm shared with global supply chain partner - as well as global entrepreneurship - innovativeness, proactiveness and risk-taking - have positive effect on SMEs' export performances. Also global entrepreneurship affects positively social capital which has mediating effect partially in the relationship between global entrepreneurship and performances. These results means that there is a structural process - global entrepreneurship(input), social capital(output), and export performances(outcome). In other words, a firm should consistently invest in and develop the social capital with global supply chain partners in order to achieve common goals, establish strategic collaborations and obtain long-term export performances. Furthermore, it is required to foster the global entrepreneurship in an organization so as to build up the social capital. More detailed practical issues and discussion are made in the conclusion.

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A Study on the Influence of the Founder's Self-Efficacy on the Sales of the Founding Company (창업자의 자기효능감이 창업기업의 매출에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Joonsung;Song, Inam
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.61-78
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    • 2019
  • This study is about the effect of the founder's self-efficacy on the sales of the founding company by focusing on the factors that are currently emphasized in the founding education. In particular, this paper starts from the consciousness of the problem that the education that is being implemented to achieve the purpose of successful start-up among various government-based start-up support projects is failing to produce many start-up failures. Entrepreneurs cannot be assessed by objective financial data, but there is a high degree of uncertainty that should be determined based on their personal and learning abilities. In addition, many previous studies, which are likely to be successful when there is a high self-efficacy in a specific field due to the influence of factors such as personal experience or learning, will answer the direction of support for start-up companies. This study focuses on the impact of the founder's self-efficacy on the sales of the founding firms, especially the sales that are the key to the survival of the founding firms. This study has six major studies. First, to analyze whether the self-efficacy of entrepreneurs with respect to entrepreneurship affects the sales of entrepreneurs. Second, to analyze whether the self-efficacy of entrepreneurs with respect to market orientation affects the sales of entrepreneurs. Analysis of whether the founder's self-efficacy affects the sales of the founding firms. Fourth, analysis of whether the founder's self-efficiency affects the sales of the founding firms' understanding of management environment changes. An analysis of whether efficacy affects the sales of a start-up company, and sixth, an analysis of whether the founder's self-efficacy of business model building ability affects the sales of a start-up company. As a result of the empirical analysis, this study found that the self-efficacy of entrepreneurs on product differentiation capability and business model building capacity had a positive influence on the sales of entrepreneurs. The self-efficacy had a positive effect on self-efficacy, and the customer orientation had a positive effect on self-efficacy on business model building capacity. Also, it was confirmed that a path exists between the components of self-efficacy and that self-efficacy through the path has a positive effect on the sales of the start-up company. Therefore, the results of this study suggest the implications of establishing such a path and strengthening self-efficacy to create the survival and start-up performance of a start-up company if the goal of the start-up company is to survive when implementing various support projects for the start-up company.

Usefulness of Interferon-$\gamma$ Measurement Following Stimulation of Tuberculosis-specific Antigens for Diagnosis of Latent Tuberculosis Infection in Children Exposed to Pulmonary Tuberculosis (폐결핵 접촉력을 가진 소아에서 잠복 결핵 감염의 진단을 위한 결핵 특이항원 자극 인터페론-감마 측정의 유용성)

  • Sung, Ji Yeon;Ki, Joo Hwa;Yang, Mi Ae;Kim, So Hee;Eun, Byung Wook;Kim, Nam Hee;Park, Kyoung Un;Lee, Jina;Choi, Eun Hwa;Lee, Hoan Jong
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.52-58
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : Whole blood interferon-$\gamma$ assay was developed and many studies showed its usefulness in diagnosing tuberculosis (TB) including latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). However, assessment in children has been limited. This study was undertaken to evaluate the usefulness of QuantiFERON-TB Gold for the diagnosis of LTBI in children exposed to pulmonary TB. Methods : Children who visited Seoul National University Bundang Hospital with a history of TB exposure were enrolled from January 2006 to December 2007. They were evaluated with chest x-rays, tuberculin skin test (TST) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold test. TST was retested 3 months later for those with initial negative reactivity. Definition of LTBI was made on the basis of the TST reactivity. Results : Among the 103 children with a history of TB exposure, 49 children were tested with chest x-ray, TST, and QuantiFERON-TB Gold. Twenty-two were males. Median age was 7.5 years (range; 3 months to 14.7 years). According to TST reactivity, LTBI was in 8 (19%), no infection was in 21 (50%), possible LTBI was in 13 (31%). QuantiFERON-TB Gold test was positive in 5 of the 49 subjects (10%); 3 of the 13 subjects (23.1%) in unknown status, 1 of the 8 subjects (13%) in LTBI, and 1 of the 21 subjects (5%) without infection. The agreement between the QuantiFERON-TB Gold and the TST was poor (${\kappa}=0.101$). Conclusion : QuantiFERON-TB Gold showed poor sensitivity for the diagnosis of LTBI in children with exposure to TB. QuantiFERON-TB Gold alone does not seem to be useful in the diagnosis of LTBI in children.

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Monitoring of Atmospheric Aerosol using GMS-5 Satellite Remote Sensing Data (GMS-5 인공위성 원격탐사 자료를 이용한 대기 에어러솔 모니터링)

  • Lee, Kwon Ho;Kim, Jeong Eun;Kim, Young Jun;Suh, Aesuk;Ahn, Myung Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2002
  • Atmospheric aerosols interact with sunlight and affect the global radiation balance that can cause climate change through direct and indirect radiative forcing. Because of the spatial and temporal uncertainty of aerosols in atmosphere, aerosol characteristics are not considered through GCMs (General Circulation Model). Therefor it is important physical and optical characteristics should be evaluated to assess climate change and radiative effect by atmospheric aerosols. In this study GMS-5 satellite data and surface measurement data were analyzed using a radiative transfer model for the Yellow Sand event of April 7~8, 2000 in order to investigate the atmospheric radiative effects of Yellow Sand aerosols, MODTRAN3 simulation results enable to inform the relation between satellite channel albedo and aerosol optical thickness(AOT). From this relation AOT was retreived from GMS-5 visible channel. The variance observations of satellite images enable remote sensing of the Yellow Sand particles. Back trajectory analysis was performed to track the air mass from the Gobi desert passing through Korean peninsular with high AOT value measured by ground based measurement. The comparison GMS-5 AOT to ground measured RSR aerosol optical depth(AOD) show that for Yellow Sand aerosols, the albedo measured over ocean surfaces can be used to obtain the aerosol optical thickness using appropriate aerosol model within an error of about 10%. In addition, LIDAR network measurements and backward trajectory model showed characteristics and appearance of Yellow Sand during Yellow Sand events. These data will be good supporting for monitoring of Yellow Sand aerosols.

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A Study on Particulate Matter Forecasting Improvement by using Asian Dust Emissions in East Asia (황사배출량을 적용한 동아시아 미세먼지 예보 개선 연구)

  • Choi, Daeryun;Yun, Huiyoung;Chang, Limseok;Lee, Jaebum;Lee, Younghee;Myoung, Jisu;Kim, Taehee;Koo, Younseo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Urban Environment
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.531-546
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    • 2018
  • Air quality forecasting system with Asian dust emissions was developed in East Asia, and $PM_{10}$ forecasting performance of chemical transport model with Asian dust emissions was validated and evaluated. The chemical transport model (CTM) with Asian dust emission was found to supplement $PM_{10}$ concentrations that had been under-estimated in China regions and improved statistics for performance of CTM, although the model were overestimated during some periods in China. In Korea, the prediction model adequately simulated inflow of Asian dust events on February 22~24 and March 16~17, but the model is found to be overestimated during no Asian dust event periods on April. However, the model supplemented $PM_{10}$ concentrations, which was underestimated in most regions in Korea and the statistics for performance of the models were improved. The $PM_{10}$ forecasting performance of air quality forecasting model with Asian dust emissions tends to improve POD (Probability of Detection) compared to basic model without Asian dust emissions, but A (Accuracy) has shown similar or decreased, and FAR (False Alarms) have increased during 2017.Therefore, the developed air quality forecasting model with Asian dust emission was not proposed as a representative $PM_{10}$ forecast model in South Korea.

3-Dimensional Tunnel Analyses for the Prediction of Fault Zones (파쇄대 예측을 위한 터널의 3차원 수치해석)

  • 이인모;김돈희;이석원;박영진;안형준
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.99-112
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    • 1999
  • When there exists a fault zone ahead of the tunnel face and a tunnel is excavated without perceiving its existence, it will cause stress concentration in the region between the tunnel face and the fault zone because of the influence of the fault zone on the arching phenomena. Because the underground structure has many unreliable factors in the design stage, the prediction of a fault zone ahead of the tunnel face by monitoring plans during tunnel construction and the rapid establishment of appropriate support system are required for more economical and safer tunnel construction. Recent study shows that longitudinal displacement changes during excavation due to the change of rock property, and if longitudinal displacement and settlement, which are measured in the field, are considered together in displacement analysis, the prediction of change in rock mass property is possible. This study provided the method for the prediction of fault zones by analyzing the changes of L/C and (Ll-Lr)/C ratio (L= longitudinal displacement at crown, C = settlement at crown, Ll = longitudinal displacement at left sidewall, Lr = longitudinal displacement at right sidewall) and the stereographic projection of displacement vectors which were obtained from the 3-D numerical analysis of hybrid method in various initial stress conditions.

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Edge Feature Extract CBIRS for Car Retrieval : CBIRS/EFI (차량 검색을 위한 측면 에지 특징 추출 내용기반 검색 : CBIRS/EFI)

  • Koo, Gun-Seo
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2010
  • The paper proposed CBIRS/EFI with contents based search technique using edge feature information of the object from image information of the object which is uncertain. In order to search specially efficiently case of partial image information of the object, we used the search technique which extracts outline information and color information in feature information of object. In order to experiment this, we extracted side edge feature information of the vehicle for feature information of the object after capture the car image of the underground garage. This is the system which applies a contents base search by the result which analyzes the image which extracts a feature, an original image to search and a last similar measurement result. This system compared in FE-CBIRS systems which are an existing feature extraction contents base image retrieval system and the function which improves the accuracy and an effectiveness of search rate was complemented. The performance appraisal of CBIRS/EFI systems applied edge extraction feature information and color information of the cars. And we compared a color feature search time, a shape characteristic search time and a search rate from the process which searches area feature information. We extracted the case 91.84% of car edge feature extraction rate. And a average search time of CBIRS/EFI is showing a difference of average 0.4-0.9 seconds than FE-CBIRS from vehicle. color search time, shape characteristic search time and similar search time. So, it was proven with the fact that is excellent.