• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.29 no.5
• /
• pp.462-469
• /
• 2023

In this study, we propose a method for evaluating the risk of collision between ships to support determination on the risk of collision in a situation in which ships encounter each other and to prevent collision accidents. Because several uncertainties are involved in the navigation of a ship, must be considered when evaluating the risk of collision. We apply the Dempster-Shafer theory to manage this uncertainty and evaluate the collision risk of each target vessel in real time. The distance at the closest point approach (DCPA), time to the closest point approach (TCPA), distance from another vessel, relative bearing, and velocity ratio are used as evaluation factors for ship collision risk. The basic probability assignments (BPAs) calculated by membership functions for each evaluation factor are fused through the combination rule of the Dempster-Shafer theory. As a result of the experiment using automatic identification system (AIS) data collected in situations where ships actually encounter each other, the suitability of evaluation was verified. By evaluating the risk of collision in real time in encounter situations between ships, collision accidents caused by human errora can be prevented. This is expected to be used for vessel traffic service systems and collision avoidance systems for autonomous ships.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2011.06a
• /
• pp.225-226
• /
• 2011

IALA Waterway Risk Assesment(IWRAP)에서 선박의 충돌확률은 기하학적인 선박의충돌확률(geomatric probability)에 인과관계 확률(causation probability) 곱한 값으로 해당수역의 양적인 충돌확률 평가에 이용되고 있다. 이를 통해 목포대교부근에 통항하는 선박의 선종별 충돌확률 및 입출항 선박 전체 충돌 확률 값을 분석하고자 한다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.23 no.5
• /
• pp.447-454
• /
• 2017

Using two large coast guard ships at sea, we created four encounter situations ($000^{\circ}$, $045^{\circ}$, $090^{\circ}$, $135^{\circ}$) with high possibility of collision, from 3 NM up to 0.25 NM. As relative distance was gradually decreased, the subjects were measured at 0.25 NM intervals and perceived ship collision risk (PSCR) was determined by looking at the opponent ship. Characteristics were statistically analyzed using the obtained data. The purpose of this study was to analyze the characteristics of collision risk values obtained from twelve intervals, from 3 NM to 0.25 NM relative to encounter situations by curve fitting with appropriate polynomials, to determine the distance from which the change in perceived collision risk is greatest. As a result, an optimal regression equation for each distance interval was derived from each analysis direction. The greatest variation in average collision risk value was over the range 1.25 ~ 1 NM, and the collision risk value was largest at 1 NM. The maximum change in perceived collision risk was at 1 NM. These results can contribute to preventive guidelines to minimize human error in close proximity situations with a high probability of ship collision.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2014.10a
• /
• pp.103-105
• /
• 2014

선박의 운항분포는 교량충돌확률이나 선박충돌위험도 등을 계산할 때 매우 중요한 요인으로 작용하지만, AASHTO모델이나 해상교통안전진단에서의 근접도 평가모델 등 많은 충돌 또는 위험도 계산 모델에서는 선박의 운항분포가 단순한 정규분포임을 가정하고 있다. 따라서 특정 항로나 해역에서의 정확한 충돌, 위험 또는 안전 등에 관한 확률을 구하고자 할 경우에는 그 항로나 해역의 특성에 맞는 선박 운항분포를 사용해야 한다. 이 연구에서는 일주일간의 통항선박 위치정보(AIS정보)를 이용하여 다양한 특성을 가지는 항로별로 각각 고유한 특성의 선박 운항분포를 찾아내기 위해, sech 함수를 이용한 새로운 충돌위험도 평가법에서 피항구역의 문턱값을 결정하는 방법을 분석하고 실제 상황에 적용 가능한 식을 개발하였다.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
• /
• v.36 no.12
• /
• pp.1503-1510
• /
• 2012

This paper presents an Integrated Risk Management System (IRMS), which is designed to integrate longitudinal and lateral collision avoidance systems. Indices representing longitudinal and lateral collision risks are designed. From the designed indices, an integrated control strategy is designed. A collision avoidance algorithm is designed to assist the driver in avoiding collisions by using a vehicle-driver-controller integrated linear model. The performance of the proposed algorithm is investigated via computer simulations conducted using the vehicle dynamics software CARSIM and Matlab/Simulink.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2015.10a
• /
• pp.20-23
• /
• 2015

In ports of Korea, the marine traffic flow is congested due to a large number of vessels coming in and going out. In order to improve the safety and efficiency of these vessels, South Korea is operating with a Vessel Traffic System, which is monitoring its waters 24-7. However despite these efforts of the VTS (Vessel Traffic System) officers, marine accidents are occurring in their assigned districts. VTS Officers are controlling subjectively based on their experience due to no VTS guideline. On this paper, we listened to Busan VHF channel for 3days and applied to collision risk model. With collision risk model, We deducted a moment which advise or recommend to vessel in encounter situation, VTSO's career, day&night.. We suggested a collision risk value as guide line of VTSO's control time.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.39 no.6
• /
• pp.493-498
• /
• 2015

When VTSOs(Vessel Traffic Service Operators) determine the degree of collision risk of two vessels, they consider comprehensively information about each vessel's course, speed, DCPA, TCPA and encountering situation. In this study, we proposed an algorithm in which two relative bearings as information about two vessel's encountering situation are used to evaluate the degree of collision risk. In order to verify whether the proposed algorithm is reasonable, we set twenty encountering situations and conducted a survey of collision risk on fifty three VTSOs about those situations. By comparing the degrees of collision risk with the proposed algorithm to the results of the survey, we found that relative bearing at CPA is very important factor for VTSO to recognize the level of collision risk when two vessels are in encountering situation.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• v.29 no.1
• /
• pp.77-83
• /
• 2005

In collision avoidance problem of a ship, collision risk model is usually set up using the interview results fron experts who sit on a simulator by varying parameters, in which DCPA and TCPA are commonly used. This method, however, has the weakness in that not only it is expensive but also it shows different results depending on the inerviewees and other navigational parameters. In this study, a fuzzy inference system is designed based on own ship's maneuverability verified fron simulation instead of interviewing navigators. The time and distance corresponding to the collision risk value on which avoidance maneuver should be started are set to the minimum marginal time at which own ship starts maneuvering and the minimum marginal distance suggested by marine traffic rules respectively. This system can be recorfigured as a nonlinearity-strengthened one by increasing the number of fuzzy membership functions.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2009.10a
• /
• pp.62-63
• /
• 2009

A monitoring system of collision risk among multiple ships is newly-designed in order to reduce human error and make vessel traffic control more effective. By using AIS data as ships' navigational information, an estimation algorithm of collision risk among multiple ships is newly-designed. To consider ships' course of now and future, collision risks of multiple ships can be calculated by using fuzzy algorithm. To test the performance of new algorithm, replay simulations are carried out on actual AIS data collected from VTS center of Ulsan harbor in Korea. The AIS data include 25 ships' information for two hours. In this paper, the features of newly-designed estimation algorithm of collision risk and the results of replay simulation are discussed.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
• /
• v.27 no.5
• /
• pp.561-567
• /
• 2023

In this study, the collision risk of the UAM (Urban Air Mobility) corridor was analyzed using a collision risk model applied to the manned aircraft corridor. According to the K-UAM roadmap and operating concept, UAM is expected to fly on a designated route similar to existing manned aircraft operations and operate on two routes, traveling back and forth between the departure point and the destination point. Among domestic manned aircraft routes, the manned aircraft operation between Gimpo Airport and Jeju Airport is similar to this and takes the form of a parallel route with a lateral separation distance between the two routes. In this study, we analyzed the collision risk of the UAM corridor according to the lateral separation distance using a collision risk model used to analyze the collision risk of manned aircraft parallel routes for a similar type of UAM corridor. Based on this, we finally analyzed how many parallel routes could be installed within the width of the Han River, considering the K-UAM demonstration route.