• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.685-701
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• 2015

The low fertility rate and the unprecedented rapid pace of population aging is a significant factor degrading the national competitiveness and the social security system of Korea. The government has implemented various maternity incentives to alleviate the low birth problem; however, the policy seems in effective to solve the problem of low fertility. This study proposes a conditional birth-order specific fertility rate and investigates the policy effects of fertility transition in Korea to provide a basis for more effective policy development. The use of a conditional birth-order specific fertility rate allows for an effective calculation of the change and the effect in total fertility rate than a birth-order specific fertility rate. We compare the effects of the total fertility rate according to various scenarios that enables us to calculate how the total fertility rate can achieve the current multi-child childbirth support policy of the government and estimate how the total fertility rate can be achieved when focusing on the first or second childbirth support policy. We also summarize the research results on policy development for a practical increase in the childbirth that considers the rapid decrease in women of childbearing age (15-49 years) due to continued low fertility and present the number of childbirths in accordance with the total fertility rate.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.85-111
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• 2010

South Korea has experienced a rapid fertility decline and notable mortality improvement. As the drop in TFR was quicker and greater in terms of tempo and magnitude, it cast a new challenge of population projection - how to improve the forecasting accuracy in the country with a super-low fertility pattern. This study begin with the current status of the national population projection as implemented by Statistics Korea by comparing the 2009 interim projection with the 2006 official national population projection. Secondly, this study compare the population projection system including projection agencies, projection horizons, projection intervals, the number of projection scenarios, and the number of assumptions on fertility, mortality and international migration among super-low fertility countries. Thirdly we illustrate a stochastic population projection for Korea by transforming the population rates into one parameter series. Finally we describe the future challenges of the national population projection, and propose the projection scenarios for the 2011 official population projection. To enhance the accuracy, we suggest that Statistics Korea should update population projections more frequently or distinguish them into short-term and long-term projections. Adding more than four projection scenarios including additional types of "low-variant"fertility could show a variety of future changes. We also expect Statistics Korea topay more attention to the determination of a base population that should include both national and non-national populations. Finally we hope that Statistics Korea will find a wise way to incorporate the ideas underlying the system of stochastic population projection as part of the official national population projection.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.185-201
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• 2020

Scenario population projection reflects the high probability of future realization and ease of statistical interpretation. Statistics Korea (2019) also presents the results of 30 combinations, including special scenarios, as official statistics. However, deterministic population projections provide limited information about future uncertainties with several limitations that are not probabilistic. The deterministic population projections are scenario-based estimates and show a perfect autocorrelation of three factors (birth, death, movement) of population variation over time. Therefore, international organizations UN, the Max Planck Population Research Institute (MPIDR) of Germany and the Vienna Population Research Institute (VID) of Austria have suggested stochastic based population estimates. In addition, some National Statistics Offices have also adopted this method to provide information along with the scenario results. This paper calculates the demographics of Korea based on a probabilistic or stochastic basis and then draws the pros and cons and show implications of the scenario (deterministic) population projections.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.189-207
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• 2000

Focusing on the factors related to the amount of contact between young married women and their noncoresident parents and their noncoresident parents-in-law, the study hypothesized two scenarios. (1) filial piety scenario which predicts that the contact with one set of parents is not affected by accessibility of other set of parents, and (2) competition scenario which predicts that ease of contact with one set of parents inhibits contact with other set of parents. These scenarios were tested against the data from National Fertility and Family Health Survey in 1994. The regression analysis of intergenerational visits appeared to support the competition scenario : The parents-in-law and the parents seem to bs in competition for visits by young married women - distance from the parents from one side has a parallel relationship to more frequent visits with the other set of parents. This is a much more equal footing for both sides of the family than attention to filial piety would predict. although the level of support from the young generation may keep declining.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.145-154
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• 2017

In the age of low fertility and aging society, youth suicide is not the problem of a certain class but it should be recognized as an urgent and important social problem to be solved by our society. We aim to support the training of youth gatekeeper who can acquire the right attitude and understanding of suicide for adolescents, detect premature suicide signs of peer friends and link them to specialized institutions. In this paper, we propose a scenario based learning program that is linked to the concrete situation that the young people can sympathize with and a serious educational game of visual novel type that encourages participation of youth. We expect that the proposed serious game will improve the accessibility of educational facilities and youths through smart devices.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.27-54
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of policy boosting fertility and labor participation rate on potential GDP growth rate. To do this, we employ a growth accounting approach, which decomposes per capita GDP into two parts. The first one is the change of dependency ratio and the other is the change of labor input. The labor input is again decomposed into the qualitative and quantitative parts. The quantitative part considers the change of labor participation rate and working time. The qualitative aspects is based on the trend of productivity of labor. From the scenarios of NSO(National Statistics Office), the effect of the fertility-raising policy on per capita potential GDP growth rate is calculated and projected to the year of 2050. We also forecast the policy effect inducing high labor participating rate of female labor and beyond 55-year old labor. The baseline results show that the per capita GDP growth rate will show mid 4% to the year of 2010, gradually declining to 3.94% by 2020, 3.03% by 2030, 2.41% by 2040. The high fertility rate scenario will not have effects on the potential growth by 2030, but show 0.10%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario result. By the high female labor participation policy, the per capita GDP growth rate will reach 0.04%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario. Based on the results of this paper, we conclude that the quantitative labor input cannot solely account for the trend decline of potential GDP, and the qualitative aspect, like labor productivity, is much more important element to sustain and boots the economic growth.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.533-542
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• 2010

The objective of this study is to provide basic information and policy implications needed to balance the supply and demand for dietitian by projecting supply and demand for dietitian. The data from the Ministry of Health Welfare and Family on the number of licensed nutritionist, resident registration data of the Ministry of Public Administration and Security, and health insurance qualification data of the National Health Insurance Corporation were used to examine the current status of supply. To project the supply of nutritionist workforce, the in-out moves method and demographic method were used. The ratios of nutritionist to population and GDP, and that of other countries were applied as the demand projection method. According to the study results, the projection on the imbalance of supply and demand for dietitian by year 2021 differs depending on the method used. First, according to the results based on age-adjusted population ratio, there is an oversupply of 1,643 dietitians in year 2010, and 2,076 dietitians in year 2020. Second, although the projection on the imbalance of the supply and demand for dietitian differs depending on whether the GDD is calculated in won(￦) or dollar($). it is expected that there will be an oversupply in general. Third, as to the scenario using the nutritionist ratio in foreign countries, the oversupply of dietitian is likely in Korea, under any scenario, when comparing the nutritionist supply projection with the demand projection based on the nutritionist ratio in the United States. However, the projection of the supply and demand varies in each scenario when the European nutritionist ratio is applied. Under European 'scenario 1', an oversupply is expected, whereas under 'scenario 2', a shortage of supply is expected. A careful approach is required in interpreting the supply and demand projection using criteria of other countries, because dietitian assumes different roles and functions in each country. Although a slight oversupply of nutritionist workforce is projected, it does not cause a major problem as the demand for diet therapy is expected to rise due to aging and the increase of chronic diseases, and as the demand for clinical dietitians in hospitals increases. Accordingly, the demand for dietitians will rise and, in this context, the oversupply of nutritionist will not incur much problem. However, the nutritionist qualification is much too open in Korea, and this has a negative effect on the quality of the nutritionist workforce. Therefore, it is important that the nutritionist qualifications and requirements are reinforced in the future, enhance the quality level of the nutritionist supply, and maintain the balance between the supply and demand.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.1-29
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• 2019

This study estimates how changes in the female (aged 25 to 54) labor force participation rate (LFPR) following the historical experiences of the US and Japan would alter the future trend of the female economically active population by 2065, compared to the case in which the LFPR as of 2018 will remain unchanged. According to the results, the female labor force aged 25 to 54 will increase by 14% (about 797,000) and 15% (about 831,000), respectively, by 2042 if the female LFPR should change following the past trends of the US and Japan. In particular, the increase in the labor force is expected to be pronounced among females aged 30 to 44 who currently suffer high rates of job severance. The results of this study strengthen the prediction that the on-going population changes will not reduce much the overall economically active population in the near future. The result of a simulation based on the historical experiences of Japan suggests that, as least in the near future, policy efforts to encourage female labor supply will be more effective in alleviating the potential labor-market impacts of population changes, compared to policies aiming at increasing old-age employment.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.5-42
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• 2016

This study investigates why some female workers come to decide to leave work after their taking parental leave and subsequently classifies their resignation backgrounds into four ideal types. The current debates on parental leave have mostly focused on clarifying the factors that influence on workers' usage of parental leave. But given that the final goal of parental leave is to help workers return to work after temporary rest for parenting, it is very important to inquire why some workers fail in reverting to their companies after parental leave. Based on in-depth interviews with 8 female workers who leave work after parental leave, this study analyses and compares their previous work-family conditions, reasons for taking parental leave and withdrawing from work, and behavioral patterns after resignation. This article then typifies four ideal types of resignation backgrounds (i.e. penalty by company, evasion from work, decision by family, choice for family). At the conclusion, this paper suggests policy alternatives to diminish female workers' resignation after parental leave and to heighten their work-family balance.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.298-311
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• 2022

Some problems, such as aging workers, a decreased population due to a low birth rate, and shortage of skilled workers, are rising in construction sites. Therefore research for smart construction technology that can be improved for productivity, safety, and quality has been recently developed with government support by replacing traditional construction technology with advanced digital technology. In particular, the motor grader that mainly performs road surface flattening is a construction machine that requires the application of automation technology for repetitive construction. It is predicted that the construction period will be shortened if the construction automation technology such as trajectory tracking, automation work, and remote control technology is applied. In this study, we introduce the hardware and software architecture of the smart motor grader to apply unmanned and automation technology and then analyze the traditional earthwork method of the motor grader. We suggested the application plans for the path pattern and blade control method of the smart motor grader based on this. In addition, we verified the performance of waypoint-based path-following depending on scenarios and the blade control's performance through tests.