• Title/Summary/Keyword: 추정가치

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Estimates of Time-varying Values of Traffic Information on Variable Message Sign (첨두 및 비첨두시 VMS 교통정보의 가치 변화 연구)

  • Rhee, Kyoung-Ah;Lee, Young-Ihn
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2012
  • The benefit of traffic information on variable message sign can be divided into two. At the public level, the benefit of ATIS is the travel time saving, which is not only induced from ATIS, but also mixed with that of ATMS. In the economic appraisal of ITS, the benefit of ATIS has so far been regarded as the derived benefit from ATMS. At the user level, the benefit of ATIS is reduced driver uncertainty through the forward traffic status information. User can benefit from the information on VMS and therefore may have the willingness to pay for it. Recently attempt to qualify the value of information on VMS was increased, but there was a danger of distorting or over-estimates of the ATIS benefit because the related studies didn't consider the time-dependent attributes of traffic information and provided the single value. Estimates of the time-varying value should be needed for a rigorous economic appraisal of ATIS. In this study, we varied the value of information on VMS according to peak and non peak trip and verified the hypothesis that time-varying of value was statistically significant.

An Analysis on Evaluation of Construction Technology Value for Supporting Mid-small Construction Enterprises Pursuing Technical Innovation (기술기반 중소건설업체 지원을 위한 건설기술가치 평가 연구)

  • Kim, Myeongsoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2017
  • Based on Income-approach, this study develops the evaluation model which reflects construction industry's traits. Using Income approach, we derive future income's present value and evaluates the technological value by contribution to future income. As there exist more random variables in construction technology than in standardized manufactured products, we cannot help relying on not only quantitative estimation method but also qualitative evaluation by technology and market experts when we estimates construction technology value. Also, conservative estimation is needed for discount rate and cash-flow estimation, because of high uncertainty in sales and profits in construction industry. In empirical analysis, we applied economic periods of duration and cash-flow based on the standard guideline, and analyzed discount rate and technology factor based on characteristics of construction industry. The discount rate is estimated to 15% because of risk-premium increase by conservative evaluation. Technology factor is estimated to 46.7%, because technological intensity is estimated to 72% by technological superiority. Such implications can be inferred. Firstly, we need to build a database to diversify categories for division of sectors by activity or industrial classification which is now categorized only by two sectors in standard guideline. Secondly, the roles of experts who participate in technology evaluation are important because of volatility of construction technology.

An Estimation of Economic Value on Street Plan for a Walking Tour - In the Case of 'Welcome Avenue Project' in Gwacheon - (걷고 싶은 거리 조성사업의 경제적 가치 추정 - 과천 특화거리 사업 중 '환영의 거리'를 사례로 -)

  • Ko, Dong-Wan;Yu, In-Hye;Kim, Hyoun-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.12-21
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    • 2009
  • This study focused on the estimation of econcmic value and the evaluation of attitudes toward plans for the establishment of a walking tour as a public service in the city of Gwacheon. A value analysis based upon 152 questionnaires returned by the residents of Gwacheon and 175 questionnaires from the users of Seoul Race Park in Gwacheon utilized a CVM(Contingent Valuation Method) approach to estimate use value, non-use value, and potential value. The results show that 69.8% of residents and 60.0% of Seoul Race Park users had an interest, 81.6% of residents and 89.7% of Seoul Race Park users agreed to the proposed plan, and 67.8% of residents and 69.7% of Seoul Race Park users expressed a willingness to pay an additional tax or admission fee. The estimated WTP for an additional resident tax per household/year is 11,721 won while it was an additional 750 won per admission for the Seoul Race Park user group. Based on these results, the estimated total economic value of all households/year and the user group over a period of 5 years is 9,997 hundred million won, which was a doubling of the 1.4 in value of total construction costs. The results of this study strongly support the establishment of a walking tour street plan as a public service commodity.

Value Analysis of User Satisfaction by VMS Traffic Information Using Contingent Value Method (조건부가치평가법을 이용한 VMS 교통정보 제공에 따른 이용자만족도 가치 산정)

  • Yeon, Bok-Mo;Hong, Ji-Yeon;Lee, Su-Beom;Lim, Joon-Bum;Moon, Byeong-Sup
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.12-22
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    • 2010
  • The variable message sign(VMS) is a facility to smoothen traffic flows and enable safe passing by providing real-time necessary information on roads, weather, transportation, and traffic regulations. The VMS also solves a feeling of uneasiness and gives a sense of psychological security by providing information to drivers. However, the VMS has a strong character of being a non-market product but a public product, so it has not normally been evaluated for its value. This research has evaluated a value of satisfaction level for traffic information users, using a contingent valuation method(CVM). As a result of evaluating the value of satisfaction level for users through division into an urban roadway and an urban highway for the cities where an intelligent transportation system(ITS) has been established, the urban highway had a value of 96.7 won/system and the urban roadway had a value of 76.3 won/system.

A Study on Estimating the Benefits by Pedestrian Environment Improvement Using CVM (조건부가치측정법(CVM)을 이용한 보행환경개선사업에 대한 편익 추정)

  • Kim, Jang-Wook;Kang, Soon-Yang;Kim, Kyung-Tae;Kang, Young-Kyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.7-19
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    • 2012
  • In this study of estimating the benefits of environmental materials, the CVM method used in environmental economics was applied to estimate the value of pedestrian environment improvement. After finding the Willingness To Pay (WTP) level of residents through CVM, this study attempts to calculate quantitative benefits from the pedestrian environment improvement. In this study, a survey targeting the inhabitants in Seongbuk-gu adjacent to a business area was carried out for pedestrian environment improvement considering form of payment, willingness to pay and such by establishing and showing several virtual scenarios depicting a quiet and comfortable pedestrian environment. As a result, the willingness to pay level of the Seongbuk-gu residents was 627 won of surcharge for pedestrian environment improvement per month. Additionally, the annual total benefits by pedestrian environment improvement was estimated within a range from 1,247,516,820 won to 286,305,110 won.

ATM 교환기의 가치평가

  • 오완근;박정민
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 2000.05a
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    • pp.174-193
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    • 2000
  • 본 논문은 초고속 통신망 구축의 핵인 ATM 교환기가 1998-2010년 동안에 국가에 미치는 효과를 경제적 가치와 비경제적 가치로 나누어 평가한 것이다. 경제적 가치는 낙관, 비관 및 중간의 3가지 시나리오에 입각하여 측정한 결과, 명시적 생산유발효과가 약 4조원∼약5조원, 타산업 생산성 증대 효과 등의 묵시적 경제효과는 약 4조원∼약 6조원에 달할 것으로 예상된다. 이에 따라 총 경제적 효과는 약 8조원∼약 11조원으로 추정되었다. 한편 비경제적 가치는 약 18조원∼약31조원에 이를 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 비경제적 효과가 경제적 효과보다 2배 이상 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이유는 ATM 교환기가 중간재 성격을 띄고 있는 기술이기 때문으로 평가된다. 이 결과는 소비재의 경우 경제적 가치가 비경제적 가치보다 크다는 민완기 외(2000)와 설성수 외(2000b)와 대비되는 것이다. 또한 1999년말 경제적 가치는 매우 작은 것으로 나타났는데 이는 시장상황변화에 따라 기술개발효과가 줄었기 때문이다. 이것은 기술예측의 중요성을 말해주고 있다.

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Estimation of the Social Benefits from the Water Quality and Environmental Improvement through Artificial Flood by Dam (수질오염사고 발생시 댐 추가방류의 사회적 편익추정)

  • Choi, Hanju;Ryu, Mun-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.78-78
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    • 2016
  • 다이옥산, 페놀 등의 오염물질 유출로 인한 수질오염사고 발생시 사건 유형에 따라 단수로 인하여 국민들이 불편 겪거나 및 유해물질에 노출되는 등 안전성에 대한 우려가 있다. 본 연구는 수질 오염사고 발생시 댐 추가방류를 통해 위와 같은 문제를 해소하는데 기여하여 단수 등으로 인해 소비자들이 겪을 수 있는 불편을 방지하여 소비자효용의 감소를 줄이고, 안전성측면에서 수자원에 대한 소비자효용을 증가시키는 편익을 추정하고자 한다. 본 연구는 제주도 제외 전국 1,000 가구를 대상으로 한 일대일 개별면접 방식의 설문조사 수행하여 자료를 얻었고, 이 자료를 바탕으로 가구당 WTP의 대푯값을 추정하기 위해 KDI의 CVM 분석지침(2012)을 적용하였다. 수질오염사고 발생시 댐 추가방류에 대한 대푯값 WTP는 2,132.7(원/년/가구)로 추정되었다. 또한 추정결과 상수항 및 제시금액 항의 추정계수는 1.1451(t-값 5.83)와 -0.7286(t-값-5.54)로 모두 유의수준 1%에서 통계적으로 유의하여 설문조사가 제대로 수행되었음을 확인하였다. 국내에는 수질개선과 관련된 다양한 연구들이 존재하지만 댐 추가방류를 통한 수질오염사고 해소 편익 등과 특정사안에 대한 연구들은 존재하고 있지 않다. 따라서 본 연구의 분석결과는 수질 오염 사고로 인한 댐 추가방류의 가치에 대한 선제적인 연구로서 방법론적인 지침과 향후 수자원 개발 및 활용을 위한 정량적인 정보로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

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A Study on the Estimating Visitor's Economic Value of the Mt. Kumjung by Using Individual Travel Cost Model (개인여행비용법(Individual Travel Cost Model)에 의한 금정산 방문객의 경제적 가치추정)

  • Joo, Soo-Hyun;Lee, Dong-Cheol;Hur, Yoon-Jung
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.301-315
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the Kumjung Mountain, using a Individual Travel Cost Model(ITCM). This paper compares Poisson and negative binomial count data models to measure the tourism demands. Interviewers were instructed to interview only individuals. So the sample was taken in 700. A dependent variable that is defined on the non-negative integers and subject to sampling truncation is the result of a truncated count data process. The results suggest that the truncated negative binomial model is improved overdispersion problem and more preferred than the other models in the study. This study emphasizes in particular 'travel cost' that is not only monetary cost but also including opportunity cost of 'travel time'. According to the truncated negative binomial model, estimates the Consumer Surplus(CS) values per trip of about 60,669 Korean won and the total economic value was estimated to be 252,383 Korean won.

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The Estimation of Domestic Construction Technology Full-Text Services using Tobit Model (Tobit 모형을 이용한 국내 건설기술 원문서비스 가치 추정)

  • Jeong, Seong-Yun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.656-662
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    • 2016
  • We have provided a variety of domestic construction technology related full-text services through the Construction Technology Digital Library system since 2001. CODIL is a system that services the database related to construction technology data. On the other hand, there is growing demand for DB every year, but the required budget is shrinking. Therefore, this study investigated the satisfaction to effectively service the construction technique-related full-text with a limited budget. The monetary value of full-text to express satisfaction with the quantified value was estimated using the Tobit model. The Tobit model is used as a contingent valuation method to estimate the value of non-market goods. This model is the limited dependent variable regression model to observations by censoring the limit of the left side or right side so that a biased outlier is not reflected in the willingness to pay. A survey was conducted by sampling 312 respondents. The mean, median, truncating the willingness of payment were calculated for the six types of the full-text services using the Tobit model. The statistically significant variables affecting the willingness to pay for the full-text services were identified. The mean value of per the full-text service was estimated to be 46,530 won. The significance of this study was to use the Tobit model to estimate the value of the construction technology-related full-text services for the first time in Korea.