• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.125-134
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• 2003

In order to rate current bridge load carrying capacity, typically two methods are used. These are Allowable Stress Rating (ASR) and Load Factor Rating (LFR). Using the rating factors, there are many attempts to make a connection between rating factors and probability concept. The main purpose of the paper is computing the probability of overload using rating factors and probability concept. In this paper, the load rating methods are briefly explained, and the probability concept is connected to rating factors by using live load from Weigh-in-Motion (WIM). Based on the live load model and rati ng factor, the computation procedure of the probability of overload is explained.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.267-277
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• 2014

The conventional performance-based design method for the solid-wall caisson breakwater has been extended and applied to the perforated-wall caisson. The mathematical model to calculate the sliding distance of a perforated-wall caisson is verified against hydraulic experimental data. The developed performance-based design method is then compared with the conventional deterministic method in different water depths. Both the expected sliding distance and the exceedance percentage of total sliding distance during the structure lifetime decrease with decreasing water depth outside the surf zone, but they increase with decreasing water depth inside the surf zone. The performance-based design method is either more economical or less economical than the deterministic method depending on which design criterion is used. If the criterion for the ultimate limit state is used, the former method is less economical than the latter outside the surf zone, whereas the two methods are equally economical inside the surf zone. However, if the breakwater is designed to satisfy the criterion for the repairable limit state, the former method is more economical than the latter in all water depths.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.1691-1695
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• 2010

본 연구에서 AFDA(Approximate Full Distribution Approach)를 사용하여 하수관의 불능확률을 정량적으로 산정할 수 있는 신뢰성 모형이 개발되었다. 여러 도시의 연 최대강우강도(Yearly Maximum Rainfall Intensity)를 이용하여 그 확률분포함수를 분석하였고 우수관(Storm sewer)의 불능확률 산정을 위한 신뢰성 모형에 적용하였다. 연 최대강우강도 자료의 분석결과 우리나라 중부지방의 여러 중소도시에 대한 연 최대강우강도의 확률분포함수는 Gumbel분포와 일치하는 것으로 나타났다. 신뢰성 모형은 불능확률의 신뢰함수를 구하기 위해 하중(Load)을 규정하는 식은 합리식이 사용되었고 용량(Capacity)를 규정하는 식은 Darcy-Weisbach공식과 Manning의 공식이 사용되었다. 이렇게 개발된 신뢰성 모형을 실제 우수관에 적용하여 불능확률을 산정하는 신뢰성 해석을 수행하였다. Y자형 우수관망에서 2개의 관으로 유입하는 각각의 유량이 그 관의 허용유량을 초과할 경우를 불능확률로 가정하였고, 나머지 관의 경우는 두 개의 관으로부터 유입하는 유량과 그 세 번째 관의 매설지역의 우수유입량의 합이 그 관의 허용유량을 초과할 경우를 불능상태(state of system failure)로 간주하여 불능확률을 정량적으로 산정하였다. Darcy-Weisbach공식과 Manning의 공식을 사용한 신뢰성 해석결과를 비교하였으며 우수관 직경의 변화에 따른 불능확률을 산정하였다. 특정한 수치(설계직경)이하일 경우 불능확률이 급격히 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 실제 우수관의 유효직경이 설계직경에 항상 가깝도록 불순물을 제거하는 것이 최선의 관리 방법이며 불능확률을 줄이는 최선의 방법일 것이다. 본 연구에서 개발된 신뢰성 모형은 우수관의 운용, 관리, 감독은 물론 설계에 활용이 가능 할 것이다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.45-53
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• 2009

More than 40% of railway bridges on the conventional lines in Korea consist of track-on-steel plate girder (TOSPG) bridges. This type of bridge is typically designed without considering seismic loadings, as most of them were built before 1970. The seismic performance of this particular type of bridge could be upgraded through various seismic retrofit schemes, and seismic risk assessment could play a key role in decision-making on the level of the seismic retrofit. This study performed a seismic risk assessment of TOSPG bridges in Korea. The seismic damage of several crucial components of TOSPG bridges--fixed bearings, free bearings, and piers--were probabilistically estimated, and their seismic fragility curves were developed. The probability that the components would exceed their predefined limit states was also calculated by combining the fragility curves and the seismic hazard function. The analysis showed that the piers of TOSPG bridges, which are made of plain concrete without rebars, have relatively low risk against seismic loadings in Korea. This is because the mass of the superstructures of TOSPG bridges is relatively small, and hence, the seismic loading being transferred to the piers is minimal. The line-type bearings typically used for TOSPG bridges, however, are exposed to a degree of seismic risk. Among the bearings, the probability of the free-end bearings and the fixed-end bearings exceeding the slight damage state in 50 years was found to be 12.78% and 4.23%, respectively. The gap between these probability values lessened towards more serious damage states. This study could effectively provide an engineering background for decision-making activities on the seismic retrofit of railway bridges.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.523-530
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• 2017

In this study, a method of probabilistic evaluation of the performance point of the structure obtained by capacity spectrum method (CSM) is presented. The performance point of the 4-story and 1-bay steel structure was determined by using CSM according to ATC-40. In order to analyze whether the demand spectrums exceed the performance limit of the structure, the limit displacements are derived for the performance limit of the structure defined from the plastic deformation angle of the structural member. In addition, by selecting a total of 30 artificial seismic wave having the response spectrum similar to the design response spectrum, the fragility curves were derived by examining whether the response spectrum obtained from the artificial seismic wave were exceeded each performance limit according to the spectral acceleration. The maximum likelihood method was used to derive the fragility curve using observed excess probabilities. It has been confirmed that there exists a probability that the response acceleration value of the design response spectrum corresponding to each performance limit exceeds the performance limit. This method has a merit that the stochastic evaluation can be performed considering the uncertainty of the seismic waves with respect to the performance point of the structure, and the analysis time can be shortened because the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is not necessary.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.258-264
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• 2011

A MCS technique is represented to stochastically analyze the uncertainties of wave forces exerted on the upright sections of composite breakwaters. A stochastical models for horizontal and uplift wave forces can be straightforwardly formulated as a function of the probabilistic characteristics of maximum wave height. Under the assumption of wave forces followed by extreme distribution, the behaviors of relative wave forces to Goda's wave forces are studied by the MCS technique. Double-truncated normal distribution is applied to take the effects of uncertainties of scale and shape parameters of extreme distribution into account properly. Averages and variances of relative wave forces are quantitatively calculated with respect to the exceedance probabilities of maximum design wave height. It is found that the averages of relative wave forces may be decreased consistently with the increases of the exceedance probabilities. In particular, the averages on uplift wave force are evaluated slightly larger than those on horizontal wave force, but the variations of coefficient of the former are adversely smaller than those of the latter. It means that the uncertainties of uplift wave forces are smaller than those of horizontal wave forces in the same condition of the exceedance probabilities. Therefore, the present results could be useful to the reliability based-design method that require the statistical properties about the uncertainties of wave forces.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.52-61
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• 2016

The purpose of the study was to create a probabilistic seismic hazard map using the input data that reflected the seismo-tectonic characteristics of the Korean Peninsula by applying USGS program (Harmsen (2008). The program was partly modified for the purpose of this study. The uncertainty of input parameters given by specialists was reflected in calculating the seismic hazard values by logic tree method. The general pattern of PGA was quite sensitive and similar to the shape of areal source. The probabilistic seismic hazard map showed the contour distribution of peak acceleration (%g) with 10% probability of exceedance in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years. The result showed that the peak ground acceleration (PGA) values of the northern peninsula were almost half values of the southern peninsula except Hwanghae province. The general trend of the hazard map extended in the direction of NW-SE from Whanghae province to south-eastern regions of the peninsula. The values in northern part of Kangwon province were relatively lower than other areas in the southern peninsula. The maps produced through this study are considered valuable in regulating the seismic safety of the major facilities in the Korean Peninsula.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.6
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• pp.497-510
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• 2011

A levee height is determined by adding a deterministic freeboard to a flood water level in Korea. In the USA, a levee height is determined by choosing a value conditionally among the freeboard criteria and the levels resulted from a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method adopts a conditional non-exceedance probability (CNP) which is the probability that the target stage will not be exceeded given a specific flood event. The purpose of the study is to compare Korean criterion for levee height estimation with that of the USA. Levee heights were determined according to the above two criteria at twenty-five cross sections in five streams. The results show that Korean criterion on average yields levee heights 20 cm higher than those calculated by the criterion of the USA. The larger the flood discharges become, the higher the levee height differences are usually. It is caused by the freeboard estimation criterion of Korea that the larger design flood is, the higher freeboard is given. Korean criterion, however, resulted in lower levee heights for smaller streams than those by the criterion of the USA. To sum it up, the Korean levee height criteria can result in overestimation or underestimation depending on flood discharge amount, being compared with the criteria of the USA. The Korean freeboard especially needs to be increased for smaller flood discharges.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.189-189
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• 2018

확률강우량은 수공구조물 설계, 목표강우량과 같은 방재성능목표 그리고 방재성능평가에 활용되는 기준으로 활용되고 있다. 과거 강우자료계열을 기반으로 통계분석 과정을 걸쳐 산정되는 확률강우량은 재현기간별 발생빈도에서 실제 발생한 강우량보다 과소 산정되는 문제점이 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 강우자료를 최대치계열과 초과치계열로 구분하여 각각 확률강우량을 산정하고, 확률분포형별 확률강우량과 실제 강우량의 비교분석을 실시하였다. 또한, 실제 강우의 재현기간별 발생빈도를 기반으로 과소 추정되는 확률강우량의 문제점을 보완하는 산정방안을 제시하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 과소 추정되는 확률강우량의 문제점을 보완하여 적정 확률강우량 산정함으로써, 수공구조물 설계 및 방재성능평가에 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Air Pollution Research Association Conference
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• 1994.04a
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• pp.37-42
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• 1994