• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.109-120
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• 2010

Heat wave is a disaster, which increases morbidity and mortality in temperate regions. Climate model results indicate that both intensity and frequency of heat wave in the future will be increased. This study shows the result about relationship between excess mortality and offensive airmass in 7 metropolitan cities, and an operational Heat-Health Warning System (HHWS) in Korea. Using meteorological observations, the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) has been used to classify each summer day from 1982 to 2007 into specific airmass categories for each city. Through the comparative study analysis of the daily airmass type and the corresponding daily mortality rate, Dry Tropical (DT), and Moist Tropical plus (MT+) were identified as the most offensive airmasses with the highest rates of mortality. Therefore, using the multiple linear regression, forecast algorithm was produced to predict the number of the excess deaths that will occur with each occurrence of the DT and MT+ days. Moreover, each excess death forecast algorithm was implemented for the system warning criteria based on the regional acclimatization differences. HHWS will give warnings to the city's residents under offensive weather situations which can lead to deterioration in public health, under the climate change.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.514-524
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• 2016

The Bio-Climatic impact Assessment System, BioCAS was utilized to produce analysis maps of daily maximum perceived temperature ($PT_{max}$) and excess mortality ($r_{EM}$) over the entire Seoul area on a heat wave event. The spatial resolution was 25 m and the Aug. 5, 2012 was the selected heat event date. The analyzed results were evaluated by comparing with observed health impact data - mortality and morbidity - during heat waves in 2004-2013 and 2006-2011,respectively. They were aggregated for 25 districts in Seoul. Spatial resolution of the comparison was equalized to district to match the lower data resolution of mortality and morbidity. Spatial maximum, minimum, average, and total of $PT_{max}$ and $r_{EM}$ were generated and correlated to the health impact data of mortality and morbidity. Correlation results show that the spatial averages of $PT_{max}$ and $r_{EM}$ were not able to explain the observed health impact. Instead, spatial minimum and maximum of $PT_{max}$ were correlated with mortality (r=0.53) and morbidity (r=0.42),respectively. Spatial maximum of $PT_{max}$, determined by building density, affected increasing morbidity at daytime by heat-related diseases such as sunstroke, whereas spatial minimum, determined by vegetation, affected decreasing mortality at nighttime by reducing heat stress. On the other hand, spatial maximum of $r_{EM}$ was correlated with morbidity (r=0.52) but not with mortality. It may have been affected by the limit of district-level irregularity such as difference in base-line heat vulnerability due to the age structure of the population. Areal distribution of the heat impact by local building and vegetation, such as spatial maximum and minimum, was more important than spatial mean. Such high resolution analyses are able to produce quantitative results in health impact and can also be used for economic analyses of localized urban development.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.265-274
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• 2000

Relationship between the daily mortality and total suspended particulate(TSP) for the period of 1996-1997 was examined in Seoul, Korea. Generalized additive model was adapted for the analysis to allow the seasonality and long-term time effect in the air pollution and the nonlinear relationships with weather variables such as air temperature and relative humidity. An increase of 100 Ji9/m') TSP corresponds to 0.8-5.2 percent increase of the daily mortality Unidirectional (prospective and retrospective) case-crossover design results in large bias of the estimates. Bidirectional method gives relatively unbiased estimates but the standard errors are larger Case-crossover design should be used with caution in the situation where the data have seasonal trends like air pollution study.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.3-32
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• 2015

The critical temperature and the rate of increase in excess death caused by heat waves in the age group of 65 years and older are derived. The value of statistical life method was used to quantify economic damages, and the willingness to pay after 71 years of age for 10 years was measured based on the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method survey. The result shows about KRW 481,110,000 is required annually to reduce the possibility of death by climate change to 1/1000.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2010.02a
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• pp.116-116
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• 2010

기후변화로 인해 점차 이상기후가 심해짐에 따라 폭염이나, 한파와 같은 극한 기상현상에 의한 피해가 증가하고 있다. 이중에서도 특히 폭염에 의한 피해는 인명피해 발생과 관련성이 크다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 폭염시기의 종관기상학적인 특성 분석을 통해 인명피해를 가져오는 폭염의 기상학적인 특성을 분석하고자 하였다. 그 결과, 폭염으로 인한 초과사망자수의 발생이 많았던 1994년 7월 21일을 전후로 하여, 건강에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 종관규모의 기류의 영향이 발생함을 확인할 수 있었다.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.293-310
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to present the most effective smoke exhaust mode by comparing the quantitatively evaluated risks according to the smoke exhaust mode when a train fire occurs in a subway platform. Therefore, applying the typical subway platform as a model, train fire scenarios are developed with the evacuation start time and location of the fire train for each exhaust mode. The fire accident rates (F) are calculated and the number of fatalities (N) was quantitatively estimated by fire analysis and evacuation analysis for each scenario. In addition, the F/N curve compared with the social risk assessment criteria and the following conclusions were obtained. In the event of a train fire at the subway station platform, the evacuation must start up within 600 s in maximum to ensure the evacuees' safety. To secure evacuation safety, it is advantageous to operate the HVAC system of the platform in the air-supply mode at station without TVF. Comparing the F/N curve for each exhaust mode with the social risk criteria, it turned out that the risk significantly exceeds the social risk criteria in case of no mechanical ventilation. As a result, this paper shows that the ventilation mode in which TVF are exhausted and HVAC system is operated in the pressurized mode are the most effective smoke exhaust mode for ensuring evacuation safety.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.19 no.1 s.57
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• pp.1-19
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• 2005

The following matters were confirmed through the analysis of casualties due to fires in Korea, Japan, and the U.S. in this paper. 1 Korean statistics are not the most detailed of the three countries about casualties due to fires, so we need to have detailed statistics of them on casualties more. 2. Korean deaths are the lowest by 10-11 people due to fires per one million of population. Those of Japan are 15-17 and about 12 people in the U.S.; decreased about 2/3 only for a quarter of a century. 3. Korean deaths are on the decrease about 1.5 people per 100 cases due to fires,3.5 in Japan and 0.2-0.3 in the U.S. Likewise, Korean injuries are on the decrease per 100 cases due to fires From 14.9 in 1977 to 5.1 in 2001 and 5.3 in 2002. In the U.S., the figure was 1.0-1.6. but after the year 1994, it was 1.2 or so. It tends to some increase to 2.6-2.8 in Japan. Therefore, when fires are happened, the death probability is the highest in Japan and 15 times higher than that of the U.S. The injury probability is the highest in Korea and 5 times higher than that of the U.S. 4. Fire deaths rate is the highest in the U.S. about $80\%$ due to home fires (including apartments) among all deaths. Japan tends to decrease of $55\%$. Recently, in case of Korea. it is similar level to that of Japan. 5. Korean aged people of 65 years old and over exceeded by $7\%$ in 2000 and entered an aging society, so It Is time to Investigate and take effect policies to reduce the death of the aged . Japan has ahead a super-aged society that exceeds $20\%$ of the people over the age 65, and many of them die of fire. Consequently, Japan has taken effect policies to reduce deaths from 10 years or more than before. Therefore, it is a good proposal to analyze the policies of Japan deeply and study introduction of them.