• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.154-161
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• 2009

Thanks to the circumstance of digital convergence, most of the world TV and radio stations are gearing up for digitalisation of broadcasting. In this flux, digital switchover in South Korea should be completed by 2012 when transmission of analogue broadcasting signal will be ceased. According to the report, it shows only over 30% take up roughly so far, but there is no official survey from relevant organisation. It is very comparable with British digital switchover which is same year as S. Korea and has been reported 88% take up as of 2008 Q2. Yet the digital switchover in S. Korea inferred from this current is not a rosy future and even seems to be perilous. The purpose of this paper is to predict the media future of S. Korea at the view point of futurology and draw out the possibilities which enable to affect viewing behavior. In order to analyse it applies the futures wheel which is one of useful tools for future work. Consequently it suggests a number of scenarios how to cope with the impending situation in S. Korea.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.155-160
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• 2014

When we collect marketing data, we can only obtain the bimonthly or quarterly data but the monthly data be available. If we evaluate or predict monthly market condition or establish monthly marketing strategies, we need to disaggregate these bimonthly or quarterly data to the monthly data. In this paper, for bimonthly or quarterly data, we introduce some methods of disaggregation to monthly data. These disaggregation methods include the simple average method, the growth rate method, the weighting method by the judgment of experts, and variable decomposition method using 12 month moving cumulative sum. In this paper, we applied variable decomposition method to disaggregate for bimonthly data of sum of electronics sales in a European country. We, also, introduce how to use this method to predict the future data.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.166-174
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• 2015

A direct demand model requires relatively little analysis time and incurs a low cost. It is also known to be useful for the preliminary screening of promising configurations or concepts. This study reviews direct demand models of 12 existing urban railways using demographic data based on a block group level which is approximately 1/24 of a traditional zone area. However, direct demand models are limited. Therefore, a new approach is suggested. The proposed method is based on a field study and an empirical analysis. The study finds factors that affect ridership at the station level. As a case study, the proposed approach is tested using 54 light railway transit stations. The results of this empirical study demonstrate its applicability to improve the error rates of the predicted ridership at the station level.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.13D no.6 s.109
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• pp.775-788
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• 2006

Many disaster monitoring systems are constantly studied to prevent disasters such as environmental pollution, the breaking of a tunnel and a building, flooding, storm earthquake according to the progress of wireless telecommunication, the miniaturization of terminal devices, and the spread of sensor network. A disaster monitoring system can extract information of a remote place, process sensor data with rules to recognize disaster situation, and provide work for preventing disaster. However existing monitoring systems are not enough to predict and prevent disaster, because they can only process current sensor data through utilizing simple aggregation function and operators. In this paper, we design and implement a disaster prevention system to predict near future dangerous area through using outside sensor network and spatial Information. The provided prediction technique considers the change of spatial information over time with current sensor data, and indicates the place that could be dangerous in near future. The system can recognize which place would be dangerous and prepare the disaster prevention. Therefore, damage of disaster and cost of recovery would be reduced. The provided disaster prevention system and prediction technique could be applied to various disaster prevention systems and be utilized for preventing disaster and reducing damages.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.780-790
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• 2022

Quantitative risk levels must be presented by analyzing the causes and consequences of accidents and predicting the occurrence patterns of the accidents. For the analysis of marine accidents related to vessel traffic, research on the traffic such as collision risk analysis and navigational path finding has been mainly conducted. The analysis of the occurrence pattern of marine accidents has been presented according to the traditional statistical analysis. This study intends to present a marine accident prediction model using the statistics on marine accidents related to vessel traffic. Statistical data from 1998 to 2021, which can be accumulated by month and hourly data among the Korean domestic marine accidents, were converted into structured time series data. The predictive model was built using a long short-term memory network, which is a representative artificial intelligence model. As a result of verifying the performance of the proposed model through the validation data, the RMSEs were noted to be 52.5471 and 126.5893 in the initial neural network model, and as a result of the updated model with observed datasets, the RMSEs were improved to 31.3680 and 36.3967, respectively. Based on the proposed model, the occurrence pattern of marine accidents could be predicted by learning the features of various marine accidents. In further research, a quantitative presentation of the risk of marine accidents and the development of region-based hazard maps are required.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.1145-1153
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• 2009

The problem of Korean registered population is that population classified by age increases as one grows older until 6 age or 7 age. This paper is to suggest an algorithm of the re-projection under 7 age on Korean registered population and to analysis of comparison with the reported population statistical data. As the result, the reprojections population is trusted in the number of 0 age on the comparison of other reported population statistical data.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.156-163
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• 2017

In the major operation sections of the urban railway, there has been habitual delay, and delay propagation; another problem is the increase of crowds and of inconvenience to passengers. The urban railway has different characteristics from rural railways, such as uncertainty of demand and irregularity of train operation. In urban railways, recently, operators manage quality indicators of service using operation results, such as the delay of train operation and the congestion of trains. However, because the urban railway has characteristics in which demand, passenger behavior, and train operation mutually affect each other, it is difficult to express the quality of service that passengers actually feel. In this paper, we suggest a quality indicator of service from the viewpoint of passengers, and present a demand responsive multi-train simulation method to predict dynamic dwell time and train operation status; we also use simulation results to consider changes in the quality indicator of service.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.16 no.3 s.49
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• pp.265-273
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• 2006

Face mapping during tunnel construction is useful and critical to predict the characteristics and stability condition of following tunneling sections and to select optimum support pattern. Therefore, a detailed geological survey of the tunnel faces, as important as a routine underground survey and a RMR evaluation, should provide critical information of the tunnel face condition in terms of the engineering geological condition and the safety of working environment for the following tunneling section. But the results of the face investigation have not been applied satisfactorily during tunneling due to limitation of technique, experience and time. This study analyze problems of face mapping in tunnel construction site by using statistical results of face mapping sheets obtained from completed tunnels, and suggest several opinions to improve face mapping during tunnel construction.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.65-76
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• 2017

The purpose of this study was to present a prediction model that reflects crime risk area analysis, including factors and spatial characteristics, as a precursor to preparing an alternative plan for crime prevention and design. This analysis of criminal cases in high-risk areas revealed clusters in which approximately 25% of the cases within the study area occurred, distributed evenly throughout the region. This means that using a multiple linear regression model might overestimate the crime rate in some regions and underestimate in others. It also suggests that the number of deserted houses in an analyzed region has a negative relationship with the dependent variable, based on the multiple linear regression model results, and can also have different influences depending on the region. These results reveal that closure signs in a study area affect the dependent variable differently, depending on the region, rather than a simple or direct relationship with the dependent variable, as indicated by the results of the multiple linear regression model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.5 s.91
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• pp.89-108
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• 2006

Korea has been entering the ageing society as the population of age over 65 shared over 7% since the year 2000. The ageing society needs to have transportation facility considering elderly people's travel behavior. This study aims to understand the elderly people's travel behavior using recent data in Korea. The activity schedule approach begins with travel outcomes are part of an activitv scheduling decision. For tho?e approach. used discrete choice models (especially. Nested Logit Model) to address the basic modeling problem capturing decision interaction among the many choice dimensions of the immense activity schedule choice set The day activity schedule is viewed as a sot of tours and at-home activity episodes tied togather with overarching day activity pattern using the Seoul Metropolitan Area Transportation Survey data, which was conducted in June, 2002. Decisions about a specific tour in the schedule are conditioned by the choice of day activity pattern. The day activity scheduling model estimated in this study consists of tours interrelated in a day activity pattern. The day activity pattern model represents the basic decision of activity participation and priorities and places each activity in a configuration of tours and at-home episodes. Each pattern alternative is defined by the primary activity of the day, whether the primary activity occurs at home or away, and the type of tour for the primary activity. In travel mode choice of the elderly and non-workers, especially, travel cost was found to be important in understanding interpersonal variations in mode choice behavior though, travel time was found to be less important factor in choosing travel mode. In addition, although, generally, the elderly was likely to choose transit mode, private mode was preferred for the elderly over 75 years old owing to weakened physical health for such things as going up and down of stairs. Therefore. as entering the ageing society, transit mode should be invested heavily in transportation facility Planning tor improving elderly transportation service. Although the model has not yet been validated in before-and-after prediction studies. this study gives strong evidence of its behavioral soundness, current practicality. and potential for improving reliability of transportation Projects superior to those of the best existing systems in Korea.