• Title/Summary/Keyword: 집계예측

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Investigating Optimal Aggregation Interval Size of Loop Detector Data for Travel Time Estimation and Predicition (통행시간 추정 및 예측을 위한 루프검지기 자료의 최적 집계간격 결정)

  • Yoo, So-Young;Rho, Jeong-Hyun;Park, Dong-Joo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.109-120
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    • 2004
  • Since the late of 1990, there have been number of studies on the required number of probe vehicles and/or optimal aggregation interval sizes for travel time estimation and forecasting. However, in general one to five minutes are used as aggregation intervals for the travel time estimation intervals for the travel time estimation and/or forecasting of loop detector system without a reasonable validation. The objective of this study is to deveop models for identifying optimal aggregation interval sizes of loop detector data for travel time estimation and prediction. This study developed Cross Valiated Mean Square Error (CVMSE) model for the link and route travel time forecasting, The developed models were applied to the loop detector data of Kyeongbu expressway. It was found that the optimal aggregation sizes for the travel time estimation and forecasting are three to five minutes and ten to twenty minutes, respectively.

Determining Optimal Aggregation Interval Size for Travel Time Estimation and Forecasting with Statistical Models (통행시간 산정 및 예측을 위한 최적 집계시간간격 결정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Dong-Joo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.55-76
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    • 2000
  • We propose a general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes as a function of the traffic dynamics and frequency of observations for four cases : i) link travel time estimation, ii) corridor/route travel time estimation, iii) link travel time forecasting. and iv) corridor/route travel time forecasting. We first develop statistical models which define Mean Square Error (MSE) for four different cases and interpret the models from a traffic flow perspective. The emphasis is on i) the tradeoff between the Precision and bias, 2) the difference between estimation and forecasting, and 3) the implication of the correlation between links on the corridor/route travel time estimation and forecasting, We then demonstrate the Proposed models to the real-world travel time data from Houston, Texas which were collected as Part of the Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. The best aggregation interval sizes for the link travel time estimation and forecasting were different and the function of the traffic dynamics. For the best aggregation interval sizes for the corridor/route travel time estimation and forecasting, the covariance between links had an important effect.

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Analysis of Multiple Dimension Hierarchies of OLAP Cubes (OLAP 큐브의 다중 차원계층구조에 대한 분석)

  • 박영선;김지현;임윤선;김명
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2004.10b
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    • pp.115-117
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    • 2004
  • 롤업과 드릴다운은 다차원 데이터 분석을 위한 주요 연산으로, 각 차원에 정의된 계층구조를 통해 상세 데이터로부터 점차적으로 되는 정보를 분석가에게 제공한다. 이러한 연산 속도를 고속화하기 위해 OLAP 시스템은 사전에 집계 테이블들을 생성해 놓는다. 각 차원은 다중 계층구조를 가질 수도 있으며, 이런 경우 집계 테이블들을 모두 생성하게 되면 데이터 폭발 현상이 발생하게 된다. 본 연구에서는 다중계층 구조를 분류하고, 집계 테이블과 데이터 큐브의 크기를 계산하는 모델을 정립하였다. 이를 통해 분석가는 다중 계층구조에 따른 큐브 크기를 미리 예측할 수 있으며 계층 구조의 모양과 개수를 변경하여 데이터의 양을 조절할 수 있다.

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로지트 모델 시물레이션에 의한 도시교통안전계획에 관한 연구

  • 김용수;이근철
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.103-120
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    • 1989
  • 최근 도시교통계획분야에 있어서 교통수요의 예측모델 또는 교통정책의 평가 모델로서 비집계(非集計) 모델에 관한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 이 비집계모델은 개개의 의사결정단위에 있어서 선택행동을 영역마다 집계하는 것이 아니고 의사결정레벨의 데이터률 그대로 모델로 구성할 경우 이 데이터를 이용함으로써 의사결정단위의 선택행동을 모델화 할 수 있다는 특징을 갖고 있다. 한편 비집계모델의 사용목적은 여러가지로 생각되나 이것을 교통수요의 목적이나 교통정잭의 평가를 위한 모델로 이용할 때는 파라미터의 추정값이나 선택비율의 추정값에 대한 안정성이 매우 중요한 문제가 되고 있다.

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Analysis of Using and Gathering of Distribution ERP in Massfeeding (집단급식사업에서의 유통 ERP 사용과 집계 분석)

  • Lim, Sang-Sun;Park, Dea-Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2011.06a
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    • pp.143-147
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    • 2011
  • 집단급식사업을 할 때 재료의 신선한 공급을 위한 신속성, 음식의 매출액과 재료비, 인건비, 경비 등의 관련비용 집계에 대한 정확성과 기업회계 결산에 대한 어려움이 있다. 집단급식사업은 통신과 컴퓨터를 이용하여 유통 ERP를 구축하고, 사업장을 여러 군데로 확장하여 정확한 정보의 집계와 전달에 관한 연구가 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 집단급식사업의 유통 ERP를 연구하고, 구축 운영하여 급식 매출과 원가의 요소를 집계한다. 또한 집단급식사업장 단위의 매출액에 대한 재료비, 인건비, 경비 등 요소를 집계하고, 급식 자재의 유통을 위한 구매 발주와 낙찰된 식자재의 계약과 결과 값으로 예측 Simulation하여 본다. 집단급식 사업장 단위에서 마감되면 시도 단위와 전국 단위의 자산 및 손익 계산을 하는 ERP를 연구한다. 본 논문 연구를 통하여 집단급식사업의 ERP 발전과 물류 유통 산업 발전에 기여하게 될 것이다.

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Development of Time-based Safety Performance Function for Freeways (세부 집계단위별 교통 특성을 반영한 고속도로 안전성능함수 개발)

  • Kang, Kawon;Park, Juneyoung;Lee, Kiyoung;Park, Joonggyu;Song, Changjun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.203-213
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    • 2021
  • A vehicle crash occurs due to various factors such as the geometry of the road section, traffic, and driver characteristics. A safety performance function has been used in many studies to estimate the relationship between vehicle crash and road factors statistically. And depends on the purpose of the analysis, various characteristic variables have been used. And various characteristic variables have been used in the studies depending on the purpose of analysis. The existing domestic studies generally reflect the average characteristics of the sections by quantifying the traffic volume in macro aggregate units such as the ADT, but this has a limitation that it cannot reflect the real-time changing traffic characteristics. Therefore, the need for research on effective aggregation units that can flexibly reflect the characteristics of the traffic environment arises. In this paper, we develop a safety performance function that can reflect the traffic characteristics in detail with an aggregate unit for one hour in addition to the daily model used in the previous studies. As part of the present study, we also perform a comparison and evaluation between models. The safety performance function for daily and hourly units is developed using a negative binomial regression model with the number of accidents as a dependent variable. In addition, the optimal negative binomial regression model for each of the hourly and daily models was selected, and their prediction performances were compared. The model and evaluation results presented in this paper can be used to determine the risk factors for accidents in the highway section considering the dynamic characteristics. In addition, the model and evaluation results can also be used as the basis for evaluating the availability and transferability of the hourly model.

2000년대까지 OECD각국의 원자력발전과 핵연료주기

  • 한국원자력산업회의
    • Nuclear industry
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    • v.7 no.8 s.54
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    • pp.18-19
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    • 1987
  • 경제협력개발기구/원자력기관(OECD/NEA)은 6월 17일 가맹국의 원자력발전과 핵연료주기에 관한 테이터를 집계, 공표하였다. 다음은 이중에서 원자력발전량과 우라늄농축 등에 관한 2000년대까지의 OECD 각국의 규모, 유급예측 등을 소개한 것이다(수치는 잠정치, 예측치 등을 포함)

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Real-Time Traffic Information Provision Using Individual Probe and Five-Minute Aggregated Data (개별차량 및 5분 집계 프로브 자료를 이용한 실시간 교통정보 제공)

  • Jang, Jinhwan
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.56-73
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    • 2019
  • Probe-based systems have been gaining popularity in advanced traveler information systems. However, the high possibility of providing inaccurate travel-time information due to the inherent time-lag phenomenon is still an important issue to be resolved. To mitigate the time-lag problem, different prediction techniques have been applied, but the techniques are generally regarded as less effective for travel times with high variability. For this reason, current 5-min aggregated data have been commonly used for real-time travel-time provision on highways with high travel-time fluctuation. However, the 5-min aggregation interval itself can further increase the time-lags in the real-time travel-time information equivalent to 5 minutes. In this study, a new scheme that uses both individual probe and 5-min aggregated travel times is suggested to provide reliable real-time travel-time information. The scheme utilizes individual probe data under congested conditions and 5-min aggregated data under uncongested conditions, respectively. As a result of an evaluation with field data, the proposed scheme showed the best performance, with a maximum reduction in travel-time error of 18%.

Efficient Privacy-Preserving Metering Aggregation in Smart Grids Using Homomorphic Encryption (동형 암호를 이용한 스마트그리드에서의 효율적 프라이버시 보존 전력량 집계 방법)

  • Koo, Dongyoung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.685-692
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    • 2019
  • Smart grid enables efficient power management by allowing real-time awareness of electricity flows through two-way communication. Despite its various advantages, threats to user privacy caused by frequent meter reading hinder prosperous deployment of smart grid. In this paper, we propose a privacy-preserving aggregation method exploiting fully homomorphic encryption (FHE). Specifically, it achieves privacy-preserving fine-grained aggregation of electricity usage for smart grid customers in multiple electrical source environments, while further enhancing efficiency through SIMD-style operations simultaneously. Analysis of our scheme demonstrates the suitability in next-generation smart grid environment where the customers select and use a variety of power sources and systematic metering and control are enabled.