• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.31-38
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• 2000

Relationships between hydrologic variables are often nonlinear. Usually the functional form of such a relationship is not known a priori. A multivariate, nonparametric regression methodology is provided here for approximating the underlying regression function using locally weighted polynomials. Locally weighted polynomials consider the approximation of the target function through a Taylor series expansion of the function in the neighborhood of the point of estimate. The utility of this nonparametric regression approach is demonstrated through an application to nonparametric short term forecasts of the biweekly Great Salt Lake volume.volume.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2006.05a
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• pp.804-808
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• 2006

유량자료를 이용한 매개변수적 빈도해석 방법은 주관적인 분포형 선정문제를 안고 있다. 이러한 분포형 선택문제는 수문자료의 오랜 축척에 따른 통계적 분석을 통해 하나의 확률분포형을 선택할 수 있는 경우 극복될 수 있을 것이다. 그러나, 일반적으로 수문자료의 관측 기간이 짧아 하나의 분포형을 선택하는데 어려움을 갖고 있다. 반면에, 지역가중다항식을 이용한 빈도해석의 경우 단일분포형 선택문제가 아닌 자료로 부터 매개변수를 선택하고 추정함으로서 White noise를 제거 또는 감소하며 자연계의 이질적, 다중변수적 그리고 시공간적 특성을 잘 반영할 수 있는 것으로 알려져 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 단일 주관분포 선택문제가 아닌 자료로부터 매개변수의 선택 추정이 이루어지는 지역가중다항식을 이용한 빈도해석을 수행하였다. 분석에는 서울강우자료로 매개변수적 빈도해석을 수행하는 경우 Gumbel, GEV(Type I Extreme Value) 그리고 LN2 (Log-Normal 2) 등의 분포형을 적용하여 지역 가중다항 추정자의 산출 결과와 비교 검토하였다. 또한 각각의 방법을 적용해 이중첨두(bimodal) 분포형에 대한 모형의 적합성을 도시적으로 비교 산정하였다.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.02b
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• pp.139.1-139.1
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• 2009

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.9
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• pp.681-690
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• 2009

In this research, design precipitation was calculated by reflecting the climatic indices and its uncertainty assessment was evaluated. Climatic indices used the sea surface temperature and moisture index which observed globally. The correlation coefficients were calculated between the annual maximum precipitation and the climatic indices. and then climatic indices which have the larger correlation coefficient were selected. Therefore, the regression relationship was established by a locally weighted polynomial regression. Next, climatic indices were generated by montecarlo simulation using kernel function. Finally, the design rainfall was calculated by the locally weighted polynomial regression using generated climatic indices. At the result, the comparison of design rainfall between the reflection of the climatic indices and the frequency analysis did not indicate a significant difference. Also, this result can be used as basic data for calculation of probability precipitation to reflect climate change.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.2B
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• pp.193-205
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• 2009

Typhoons occurred in the tropical Pacific region, these might be affected the Korea moving toward north. The strong winds and the heavy rains by the typhoons caused a natural disaster in Korea. In the research, the heavy rainfall events based on typhoons were evaluated quantitative through various statistical techniques. First, probability precipitation and typhoon probability precipitation were compared using frequency analysis. Second, EST probability precipitation was calculated by Empirical Simulation Techniques (EST). Third, NL probability precipitation was estimated by coupled Nonparametric monte carlo simulation and Locally weighted polynomial regression. At the analysis results, the typhoons can be effected Gangneung and Mokpo stations more than other stations. Conversely, the typhoons can be effected Seoul and Inchen stations less than other stations. Also, EST and NL probability precipitation were estimated by the long-term simulation using observed data. Consequently, major hydrologic structures and regions where received the big typhoons impact should be review necessary. Also, EST and NL techniques can be used for climate change by the global warming. Because, these techniques used the relationship between the heavy rainfall events and the typhoons characteristics.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.471-482
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• 2010

Rainfall events in the hydrologic circulation are closely related with various meteorological factors. Therefore, in this research, correlation relationship was analyzed between sea surface temperature of typical meteorological factor and monthly rainfall on Korean peninsula. The cluster analysis was performed monthly average rainfall data, longitude and latitude observed by rainfall observatory in Korea. Results from cluster analysis using monthly rainfall data in South Korea were divided into 4 regions. The principal components of monthly rainfall data were extracted from rainfall stations separated cluster regions. A correlation analysis was performed with extracted principal components and sea surface temperatures. At the results of correlation analysis, positive correlation coefficients were larger than negative correlation coefficients. In addition, The 3 month of principal components on monthly rainfall predicted by locally weighted polynomial regression using observed data of sea surface temperature where biggest correlation coefficients have. The result of forecasting through the locally weighted polynomial regression was revealed differences in accuracy. But, this methods in the research can be analyzed for forecasting about monthly rainfall data. Therefore, continuous research need through hydrological meteorological factors like a sea surface temperature about forecasting of the rainfall events.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.29-41
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• 2010

In this study, the prediction errors of various spatial interpolation methods used to model values at unmeasured locations was compared and the accuracy of these predictions was evaluated. The root mean square (RMS) was calculated by processing different parameters associated with spatial interpolation by using techniques such as inverse distance weighting, kriging, local polynomial interpolation and radial basis function to known elevation data of the east coastal area under the same condition. As a result, a circular model of simple kriging reached the smallest RMS value. Prediction map using the multiquadric method of a radial basis function was coincident with the spatial distribution obtained by constructing a triangulated irregular network of the study area through the raster mathematics. In addition, better interpolation results can be obtained by setting the optimal power value provided under the selected condition.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.34 no.8
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• pp.557-565
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• 2012

In this research, it was analyzed that the effect of the non-point source pollution that occurs in the lower reaches of the livestock area. The analysis on the hydro- and polluto-graphs showed that the concentration of pollution gradually increased as the flow rate increased and, after reaching the peak flow rate, the flow rate dropped drastically. For Event Mean Concentration (EMC), in the lower reaches of livestock area, TSS EMC was 146.80~424.95 mg/L, COD EMC 11.64~55.66 mg/L, BOD EMC 6.66~49.88 mg/L, T-N EMC 7.650~43.825 mg/L and T-P EMC 0.711~3.855 mg/L. According to the results of the analysis on the correlations between pollutants, TSS and BOD, COD, T-N and T-P had correlations at a 0.53~0.95 confidence level. In addition, according to the result of the analysis on the correlations between EMC (mg/L) and storm runoff ($m^3$), the correlation was well explained by a Cubic regression. In addition, among the determination coefficients, TSS and T-N were relatively high, at 0.767~0.835 and 0.773~0.901 respectively, which indicates that EMC goes up as the storm runoff increases. Therefore, it is expected that EMC can be forecasted according to the amount of runoff ($m^3$). The results of this research will be a practical information for the assessment of the non-point source pollution that occurs in the lower reaches of the livestock area.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1393-1396
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• 2009

일반적으로 확률강우량은 관측된 강우자료의 분석을 통해 산정하게 된다. 관측된 강우자료의 빈도해석을 통해 산정된 확률강우량은 기후변화 등을 반영하기 매우 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 통계적 기법을 이용하여 수문기상인자를 반영하여 서울지점의 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 수문기상인자와 연최대시간강우량사이의 상관관계에 기초하여 확률강우량을 산정할 수 있는 CPPM(Climate Pattern and Precipitation Model)을 구축하고 서울 지점을 대상으로 분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과에서 매개변수적 지점빈도해석의 결과와 CPPM 확률강우량은 비슷한 Qunatile을 산정하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 본 연구의 결과를 지구온난화 등에 따른 기후변화에 따라 극한강우인 연최대강우량의 변화를 예측하는데 있어 기초자료로 활용 할 수 있을 것으로 기대 된다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1998.05a
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• pp.137-142
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• 1998

이 연구의 목적은 혼합핵연료 장전노심에서와 같이 스펙트럼이 상이한 인접핵연료의 영향으로 나타나는 노드내 스펙트럼 이력효과를 보정해 주고자 하는 것이다. 이를 위해 이 연구에서는 노드내 13개 지역에서 국부적 미시연소를 수행하여 스펙트럼 이력이 각각 다른 13 개의 독립적인 핵단면적을 구하였고 이로부터 노드내 핵단면적의 분포를 다항식으로 근사하였다. 스펙트럼 이력구배 효과의 보정은 노드내 중성자속 가중평균 핵단면적과 노드내 핵단 면적의 분포에 따른 불연속인자로 보정하였다. 이 스펙트럼 이력구배 효과 보정방법을 혼합 핵연료와 우라늄핵연료가 Checkerboard 형으로 무한히 장전된 경우에 대하여 검증계산을 수행하여 참조해인 CASMO-3 결과와 비교하였다. 스펙트럼 이력분포가 고려되지 않은 경우는 연소도 40 MWD/kgHM에서 노심 반응도에서 약 0.38%, 봉출력에서 최대 11.2 %, 평균 4.3%의 오차를 보였으나 스펙트럼 이력분포를 반영함으로서 노심 반응도에서 0.12 %, 봉출력에서 최대 4.9%, 평균 1.3%의 오차를 보였다.