• Korean Journal of Logic
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.89-114
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• 2009

We have many causal beliefs, and they play an important role in our decision making. Unlike evidential decision theory, causal decision theory claims that an account of rational choice must use causal beliefs to identify the considerations that make a choice rational. I claim that evidential decision theory is refuted by the original Newcomb's problem but not by the medical Newcomb problem. The latter is taken to be the best example to point out the weakness of evidential decision theory. However, by the explicit statement about causal relations, I argue that the medical Newcomb problem loses its strength in refuting evidential decision theory. With this argument, this paper clarifies the difference between evidential decision theory and causal decision theory.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.201-209
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• 2012

This study aims to explore patterns and characteristics of coordination between evidence and theories which were found in pre-service elementary teachers' writing for their science inquiry. Five science inquiry activities and a total of 115 writings of the participant teacher at the elementary teacher preparation university in Korea were collected and analyzed for this study. Based on the writing analyses there were found four types of coordination between the evidence and theory. We proposed four types as: Type 1-Consistency of evidence and theory; Type 2-Consistence of evidence and theory including more extension or elaboration of theory; Type 3-Inconsistence of evidence and theory Type 4-Inconsistence of evidence and theory followed by coordination of them. Firstly the findings indicated that the most to least frequent types were Type 1, Type 3, Type 2, and Type 4. The most frequent type was Type 1. It is interpreted that theory in the inquiry questions were frequently figured out by participants and they selected supporting evidence out of data found. There were rarely found relations between activity topics and frequencies of coordination types except in activity 1. The findings in this study will connect to the point of how students collaborate their previously owned knowledge with experiment planning, data analysis and interpretation and making of their own scientific claims.

• Journal of Korea Fair Competition Federation
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• no.113
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• pp.15-31
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• 2005

최근 미국의 법원은 담합을 입증하려는 시도를 주로 경제적 증거에 입각하여 분석하는 추세를 보여 왔다. 하지만 담합의 존재를 입증하는데 있어서 경제분석의 역할에도 많은 이견이 날카롭게 표출되었다. 담합의 존재에 관한 경제적 증거를 분석하는 데에 있어 유일한 합리적 근거는 최신과점이론(Modern oligopoly theory)이다. 그런데 증인으로 나선 많은 경제학자들과 법원이 최신과점이론에 자신들의 분석을 뚜렷이 기초하지 않았기 때문에, 판례법의 현 상태가 불만족스럽다고 주장하는 것이 본 논문의 핵심적 내용이다. 셔먼법 제1조는 ''계약, 결합, 공모(contract, combination, or conspiracy)에 의해 초래되는 거래(즉 경쟁)의 불합리한 제한을 규제''하는데, 이러한 계약 결합, 공모의''용어들은 합의라는 하나의 개념으로 통합하여 이해''할 수 있다. 제 1조는 다수의 당사자가 ''단일한 목적, 공통된 의도와 의견의 일치, 혹은 의사의 합치(Meeting of minds)'', 즉 ''공통된 계획에 대한 의식적 참가(consious commitment to a common scheme)''를 합의한 모든 협약을 규제한다. 셔먼법 제 1조 위반을 입증하기 위해서는 일치된 행동이 합의 하에서 일어났음을 입증해야 한다. 미국 법원은 합의를 추론할 수 있는 증거력 있는 정황증거(admissible circumstantial evidence)의 원칙을 확립하였다. 독점가격에 가까운 수준의 과점가격 설정은 ''조정되었다(coordinated)''라고 칭해지는데, 이는 ''구두 합의''와 ''암묵적 합의''의 두 가지 형태로 나뉜다. 한편, 일회게임 과점 모형과 반복게임 모형은 과점이론의 핵심을 이룬다. 과점에 대한 Chamberlin의 견해는 본래 게임과 Stigler의 모형은 그와 같은 생각의 오류를 가르쳤다. 그러나 판례법은, Petroleum products antitrust litigation사건과 reserve supply사건에서 볼 수 있듯이 종종 그러한 교훈을 망각했다. 최신과정이론과 판례를 종합해 보면, 합의의 존재에 관해 경제학자가 이끌어내는 추론과 법원이 이끌어내는 추론을 포괄하는 다음의 네 가지 일반적 원칙이 도출된다. 1. 합의가 추론되기 위해서는 상호의존성을 넘는 무언가가 먼저 제시되어야 한다. 2. 합의의 존재는 일회게임 과점 모형에서의 비협조적 내쉬균형과 일치하는 행동으로부터는 추론될 수 없다. 3. 합의의 존재는, 비록 무한반복 과점게임에서의 비협조적 내쉬균형(혹은 Chamberlin-Fellner식의 과점)과 일치하더라도, 일회게임 과점 모형에서의 비협조적 내쉬균형과 일치하지 않는 행동으로부터 추론될 수 있다. 4. 증거는 구두합의의 존재를 뒷받침해야만 한다. 이러한 원칙에서 얻을 수 있는 가장 중요한 교훈은, 합의가 존재하지 않을 경우 과점상황으로부터는 독점가격이 예상될 수 없다는 사실을 법원이 인식하는 것만으로도 합의의 추론에서 범하기 쉬운 가장 큰 오류를 회피할 수 있다는 것이다.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.118-131
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• 2021

The purpose of this study was to investigate the characteristics of evidence-based reasoning practiced by middle school gifted students. Data were collected through an online task in which middle school students in gifted education institutes of a university located in the metropolitan area, Korea, performed inquiry about the shape of a planet's orbit. The students were given data of Mercury's greatest elongations and asked to draw the planet's orbit with the data. Each of the students was also asked to provide his or her hypothesis of Mercury's orbit before the drawing and to reason about the orbit again using his or her own drawing as evidence. The content analysis of the students' reports revealed 5 different types of judgement about the shape of Mercury's orbit, 4 types of reasoning about the hypothesis and evidence, and the characteristics of evidence-based reasoning within the judgement types. Based upon the analysis results, the importance of proper interpretations of evidence in evidence-based reasoning, the core role of the theory-evidence coordination, and the usefulness of working with multiple hypotheses were discussed. In addition, implications for earth science education were suggested.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.283-296
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• 1998

This study was to identify middle school and college of education students' preconceptions about dielectric polarization and explore the students' reponses on the supporting or conflictual evidences on their preconceptions by letting them observe the demonstrations using electroscope, charged material, six conductor rods and six insulator rods. Letting students select the demonstrations to be observed by themselves, students' evidence selection types were classified as two : to select the evidences to testify their uncertain preconceptions, and to obtain the confirmation evidences about their preconceptions. And each evidence selection types, again, could be subclassified as three and two respectively. When students observed the conflictual observations, all accepted the observation itself. For supporting observational evidences, almost of all students showed the error of 'acceptance of antecedent' in the syllogism, that is, they did not required the succeeding supporting observations. Students' reponses on the conflictual observational evidences were classified as two: to reject the hard core of preconceptions, and to modify the students' auxiliary ideas related to the hard core with preserving the hard core. The first type reponses were, again, could be classified as three subtypes but, in all cases, students introduced new concept to explain the conflictual evidences. This responses indicated that Lakatosian rather than Popperian view is more acceptable to understand the students' reponses on the conflictual evidences. The second type reponses also were classified as three subtypes, and it was found that more middle school students than college education students were involved in this second type. That is, students who did not have perfect understanding of auxiliary ideas related with the hard core of preconceptions were more apt to change or modify theses auxiliary ideas rather than reject the hard core, this means that the quality of understanding of auxiliary ideas also take an important role in the change of hard core concept.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.128-142
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• 2011

The goal of this study was to investigate how hypotheses were elaborated after their initial appearances in the context of scientific problem solving. Data were collected from a class in which preservice elementary school teachers in groups carried out abductive inquiry of earth science. The analysis revealed two major processes of hypothesis elaboration: theory-driven and evidence-driven. The theory-driven process was in turn distinguished into two kinds of subprocesses: one is in pursuit of internal coherence and the other external coherence. The evidencedriven elaboration also had two subprocesses, which were triggered by direct evidence and indirect or analogical evidence, respectively. In addition, hypotheses were more often than not modified by a wrong theory or evidence whether it was driven by a theory or evidence. Implications for science education and related research were discussed.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.599-608
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• 2015

This study aims to explore the characteristics of student inquiry found in project-based science practices. The participants were four high school students in a science research club and worked their own project for one semester. During the project, they made their research questions, planned and executed their research procedures, and made their own conclusion. Their activities during the project were videotaped and recorded. They were also interviewed. Group worksheets and written reports were all collected for analyses. The whole processes of the inquiry were analyzed and interpreted qualitatively. The characteristics of student inquiry were presented in the view of the theory-evidence-method coordination. Three different modes of the coordinations that were found recursively in their inquiry were the theory-evidence coordination, the evidence-method coordination, and the theory-evidence-method coordination. It was also revealed that students' tacit knowledge using various tools were exhibited and these skills improved during their group works. The implications for school science inquiry education and research based on this study are discussed.

• Cross-Cultural Studies
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• v.46
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• pp.297-325
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• 2017

In this paper, I would like to reconsider the evidential category (or the mediation category) in languages with language specific values, especially in Korean and French evidentials. We tried to analyze how the evidentials are represented in both languages including their linguistic markers (grammatical, lexical or discursive) and their semantic meanings. According to the precedent studies from the general linguistic point of view, we would like to reconsider the semantic meanings of both languages' grammatical markers, the so-called Korean retrospective marker '-te-' and French conditionals in the framework of the enunciative operation theory suggested by $Descl{\acute{e}}s$ & $Guentch{\acute{e}}va$ (2000), which proposed to classify the type of discourse by the language-independent description tools conceived after the enunciation theory suggested by Bally (1965), Benveniste (1956), Culioli (1973). Through this approach, we would like to contribute to establishing the linguistic basis not only for the general linguistic research to determine the invariant meaning of linguistic evidentials and their system, but also for the applied linguistics to the language engineering field.

• Korean Journal of Logic
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.399-424
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• 2014

The main objective of this paper is to examine critically White's claim that there is a conflict between Perceptual Dogmatism and Bayesian Theory of Confirmation. For this purpose, this paper is structured as follows: In Section 2, I will introduce White's argument. Section 3 is dedicated to explaining some elements of Bayesian Theory of Confirmation. In particular, I will provide an explanation of confirmation measures and Bayesian Favoring. Using these two conceptual apparatuses, it will be shown that, contrary to what White has thought, there is a way of supporting Perceptual Dogmatism by means of Bayesian Theory of Confirmation - in particular, Bayesian Theory of Favoring.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.1390-1394
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• 2010

Dempster-Shafer 이론은 미지의 매개변수 추정시 베이지안 기법의 제약을 완화시키기 위한 베이지안 접근법의 일반화로 해석될 수 있으며, 상호배타적인 싱글톤에만 확률이 할당되는 것이 아니라 가능한 결과의 부분집합들이 기본확률할당을 위한 대상으로 고려된다. 베이지안 접근은 우연적 불확실성 및 지식의 불확실성을 효율적으로 구분할 수 없으며, 특정도가 낮고 애매한 증거들을 다룰 수 없는 반면, Dempster-Shafer 증거추론은 이러한 문제들을 효율적으로 평가할 수 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 홍수위험평가 및 수자원 계획 수립시 가장 기본이 되는 강우빈도해석에서 확률분포의 매개변수에 대한 불확실성 고려한 확률강우량의 산정 및 불확실성의 영향을 평가하기 위하여 Dempster-Shafer 이론을 이용하여 불확실성을 고려한 강우빈도해석모델 구축 및 적용을 통해 홍수위험평가 및 수자원 계획 등에 있어서 불확실성 표현 및 처리기법을 제시하였다.