• Title/Summary/Keyword: 중러관계

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Recent Changes and Prospects in the China-Russia-North Korea triangle and the three bilateral relationships (북중러 삼각관계와 3개의 양자관계의 최근 변화와 전망)

  • Jae-kwan Kim
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.7-44
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    • 2024
  • This article attempts to analyze the changes and prospects of the Northeast Asian security environment in the era of New-Cold War & multipolarity that has been spreading since the outbreak of the US-China strategic competition and the war in Ukraine. Since the war in Ukraine, changes in the new strategic triangle between the United States, China, and Russia have begun to have an unprecedented impact on the Northeast Asian security environment. This article analyzes how the two factors, the U.S.-China strategic competition and the war in Ukraine, have led to changes in the Northeast Asian security environment. More specifically, the recent changes and prospects of the China-Russia-North Korea triangle and the three bilateral relationships, China-Russia, China-North Korea, and Russia-North Korea. To analyze this research topic, the research design is based on three variables: independent, mediating, and dependent variables. The independent variables are changes in U.S.-China relations and changes in U.S.-Russia relations. The mediating variables are the US-China strategic competition and the war in Ukraine. On the one hand, the confrontation between the U.S.-China relationship led to a strategic competition, and on the other hand, the conflict between the U.S.-Russia relationship led to the war in Ukraine. In addition, the two independent variables can only be influenced by the two mediating variables. In particular, we assume that the domestic political factors of the three major powers, the United States, China, and Russia, played a significant role in causing the two mediating variables. The independent variables and mediating variables work together to promote the Northeast Asian security crisis. As a result, threats to the Northeast Asian security environment have emerged as the dependent variable. The dependent variables are the North Korea-China-Russia triangle, changes in the three bilateral relationships within the triangle, and the confrontation of Northern Triangle versus Southern Triangle. The first mediating variable, strategic competition, has led to several changes in the Northeast Asian security environment: the quasi-alliance of Sino-Russian relations, the restoration and strengthening of North Korea-China relations, the strengthening of trilateral security cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea, and the increasing necessity of Sino-Russian-North Korean trilateral cooperation. The second mediating variable, the war in Ukraine, has led to the strengthening of Sino-Russian relations, re-alignment of North Korea-Russia relations, the promotion of the US-Japan-ROK triangular alliance, and the emergence of the China-Russia-North Korea triangular cooperation.

Eurasian Naval Power on Display: Sino-Russian Naval Exercises under Presidents Xi and Putin (유라시아 지역의 해군 전력 과시: 시진핑 주석과 푸틴 대통령 체제 하에 펼쳐지는 중러 해상합동훈련)

  • Richard Weitz
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.1-53
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    • 2022
  • One manifestation of the contemporary era of renewed great power competition has been the deepening relationship between China and Russia. Their strengthening military ties, notwithstanding their lack of a formal defense alliance, have been especially striking. Since China and Russia deploy two of the world's most powerful navies, their growing maritime cooperation has been one of the most significant international security developments of recent years. The Sino-Russian naval exercises, involving varying platforms and locations, have built on years of high-level personnel exchanges, large Russian weapons sales to China, the Sino-Russia Treaty of Friendship, and other forms of cooperation. Though the joint Sino-Russian naval drills began soon after Beijing and Moscow ended their Cold War confrontation, these exercises have become much more important during the last decade, essentially becoming a core pillar of their expanding defense partnership. China and Russia now conduct more naval exercises in more places and with more types of weapons systems than ever before. In the future, Chinese and Russian maritime drills will likely encompass new locations, capabilities, and partners-including possibly the Arctic, hypersonic delivery systems, and novel African, Asian, and Middle East partners-as well as continue such recent innovations as conducting joint naval patrols and combined arms maritime drills. China and Russia pursue several objectives through their bilateral naval cooperation. The Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation Between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation lacks a mutual defense clause, but does provide for consultations about common threats. The naval exercises, which rehearse non-traditional along with traditional missions (e.g., counter-piracy and humanitarian relief as well as with high-end warfighting), provide a means to enhance their response to such mutual challenges through coordinated military activities. Though the exercises may not realize substantial interoperability gains regarding combat capabilities, the drills do highlight to foreign audiences the Sino-Russian capacity to project coordinated naval power globally. This messaging is important given the reliance of China and Russia on the world's oceans for trade and the two countries' maritime territorial disputes with other countries. The exercises can also improve their national military capabilities as well as help them learn more about the tactics, techniques, and procedures of each other. The rising Chinese Navy especially benefits from working with the Russian armed forces, which have more experience conducting maritime missions, particularly in combat operations involving multiple combat arms, than the People's Liberation Army (PLA). On the negative side, these exercises, by enhancing their combat capabilities, may make Chinese and Russian policymakers more willing to employ military force or run escalatory risks in confrontations with other states. All these impacts are amplified in Northeast Asia, where the Chinese and Russian navies conduct most of their joint exercises. Northeast Asia has become an area of intensifying maritime confrontations involving China and Russia against the United States and Japan, with South Korea situated uneasily between them. The growing ties between the Chinese and Russian navies have complicated South Korean-U.S. military planning, diverted resources from concentrating against North Korea, and worsened the regional security environment. Naval planners in the United States, South Korea, and Japan will increasingly need to consider scenarios involving both the Chinese and Russian navies. For example, South Korean and U.S. policymakers need to prepare for situations in which coordinated Chinese and Russian military aggression overtaxes the Pentagon, obligating the South Korean Navy to rapidly backfill for any U.S.-allied security gaps that arise on the Korean Peninsula. Potentially reinforcing Chinese and Russian naval support to North Korea in a maritime confrontation with South Korea and its allies would present another serious challenge. Building on the commitment of Japan and South Korea to strengthen security ties, future exercises involving Japan, South Korea, and the United States should expand to consider these potential contingencies.

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