• Title/Summary/Keyword: 조류예측

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Water Quality Variations due to Operation of Yeongju Dam (영주댐 운영에 따른 수질 변화)

  • Lee, Dong Yeol;Kim, Seong Eun;Baek, Kyong Oh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.179-179
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    • 2022
  • 최근 화두가 되고 있는 환경문제 중 하나로 녹조현상을 꼽을 수 있다. 녹조란 남세균이 대량 증식함으로써 물빛이 녹색으로 변하는 현상으로, 영양염류 및 수온 등 이화학적 요소뿐만 아니라체류시간과 같은 수리학적 요인까지 모두 충족되었을 때 발생한다. 심하면 고밀도의 스컴(scum)을 형성하며 독소와 악취를 동반하기도 한다. 유해 남세균이 생성하는 마이크로시스틴(microcystin, MC)이 함유된 물을 입 또는 코로 섭취시 간을 손상시킨다는 보고가 있으며, 최근 해외에서는 MC가 미세먼지처럼 공기 중에 떠다니다 수변에서 생활하는 사람의 호흡기로 들어가 건강 피해를 줄 수 있다는 연구가 속속 나오고 있다. 본 연구는 우리나라 최초의 수질개선용 댐인 영주댐을 연구 대상으로 삼아 수질 모델링을 구축하고 영주댐 운영에 따른 댐 상·하류 조류 변화를 정량적으로 분석하였다. 조류의 강도를 추정하는데 클로로필-a 농도를 사용하였으며, 분석 도구로는 국립환경과학원이 수질예측 및 평가 시 사용하는 EFDC(Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) 모형을 활용하였다. 대상 구간의 실제 폭, 하상고 분포 등을 고려하여 수표면 격자망을 구현하였으며, 환경부에서 제공하는 수위 및 DO, TN, T-P, 클로로필-a 등을 활용하여 EFDC 모형의 수리 및 수질 재현성 검토를 하였다. 검·보정된 EFDC 모형으로 영주댐의 방류량 변화 및 댐의 개방과 같은 수리학적 요인을 제어하여 특정 지점의 조류 변화를 분석하였다.

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Weekdays Load forecasting of Domestic Power System Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경회로망을 이용한 계통 주중 전력수요예측)

  • Jeon, Seung-Wook;Park, Woo-Jae;Park, Jung-Wook
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2011.07a
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    • pp.610-611
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    • 2011
  • 전력 계통의 운용 계획을 최적화하기 위해서 연간 최대전력수요와 시간별 전력수요에 대한 장단기간의 수요 예측에 관한 연구가 활발하게 진행 중이다. 특히, 단기 수요 예측은 발전비용과 신뢰도에 크게 영향을 주며, 전력계통의 제어 및 단기계획, 경제급전, 전력조류계산 등의 입력 자료로 활용된다. 많은 예측 문제에 폭넓게 사용되고 있는 인공신경회로망은 전력수요 예측에도 자주 쓰이는 기법이다. 본 논문에서는 이를 보다 정확히 하기 위해 기존의 인공신경회로망 기법을 개선하여 보다 정확한 예측을 보였다.

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Red Tide Blooms Prediction using Fuzzy Reasoning (퍼지 추론을 이용한 적조 발생 예측)

  • Park, Sun;Lee, Seong-Ro
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.18B no.5
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    • pp.291-294
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    • 2011
  • Red tide is a temporary natural phenomenon to change sea color by harmful algal blooms, which finfish and shellfish die en masse. There have been many studies on red tide due to increasing of harmful algae damage of fisheries in Korea. Particularly, red tide damage can be minimized by means of prediction of red tide blooms. However, the most of red tide research in Korea has been focused only classification of red tide which it is not enough for predicting red tide blooms. In this paper, we proposed the red tide blooms prediction method using fuzzy reasoning.

Simulations of the Effect of Flow Control and Phosphate Loading on the Reduction of Algae Biomass in Gangjeong-Goryong Weir (유량 조절과 인 부하 변동에 따른 강정고령보 조류저감 효과 수치 모의)

  • Park, Dae-Yeon;Kim, Sung-Jin;Park, Hyung-Seok;Chung, Se-Woong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.507-524
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to validate the EFDC model for the weir pool of Gangjeong-Goryong Weir located in Nakdong River, and evaluate the effect of flow control and phosphate loading reduction on the water quality and algae biomass by group (Diatom, Green, Cyanobacteria). As a result of model validation using 2018 experimental data,the time series of water level and vertical distribution of water temperature, DO, organic matter, nitrogen, and phosphorus time series were properly simulated. Seasonal fluctuations of algae biomass by group were adequately reproduced, but the deviations between measured and simulated values were significant in some periods. As a result of scenario simulations to control the water level and flow rate, the thermal stratification was resolved as the water level was lowered and the flow rate increased. The flow velocity at which the water temperature stratification was resolved was about 0.1 m/s, which is consistent with the previous study results of Baekje Weir in Geum River. Simulations of the 2Q flow scenario showed that Chl-a decreased by 8.7% and the cell density of diatom and green algae declined. The cell density of cyanobacteria increased, however, because the high concentrations of cyanobacteria in the upstream boundary conditions directly affected downstream due to increased flow velocity. In the scenario simulation of reducing the influent phosphate load concentration (average 0.056 mg/L) to 50%, Chl-a decreased by 13.6%.The results suggest that the upstream algae concentration and phosphorus load reduction should be considered simultaneously with hydraulic control to prevent algal overgrowth of Gangjeong-Goryong Weir.

Analysis of influential factors of cyanobacteria in the mainstream of Nakdong river using random forest (랜덤포레스트를 이용한 낙동강 본류의 남조류 발생 영향인자 분석)

  • Jung, Woo Suk;Kim, Sung Eun;Kim, Young Do
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the main influencing factors of the occurrence of cyanobacteria at each of the eight Multifunctional weirs were derived using a random forest, and a categorical prediction model based on a Algal bloom warning system was developed. As a result of examining the importance of variables in the random forest, it was found that the upstream points were directly affected by weir operation during the occurrence of cyanobacteria. This means that cyanobacteria can be managed through efficient security management. DO and E.C were indicated as major influencers in midstream. The midstream section is a section where large-scale industrial complexes such as Gumi and Gimcheon are concentrated as well as the emissions of basic environmental facilities have a great influence. During the period of heatwave and drought, E.C increases along with the discharge of environmental facilities discharged from the basin, which promotes the outbreak of cyanobacteria. Those monitoring sites located in the middle and lower streams are areas that are most affected by heat waves and droughts, and therefore require preemptive management in preparation for the outbreak of cyanobacteria caused by drought in summer. Through this study, the characteristics of cyanobacteria at each point were analyzed. It can provide basic data for policy decision-making for customized cyanobacteria management.

Effects of Climate-Changes on Patterns of Seasonal Changes in Bird Population in Rice Fields using a Prey-Predator Model (포식자-피식자 모델을 이용하여 기후변화가 논습지를 이용하는 조류 개체군 동태에 미치는 영향 예측)

  • Lee, Who-Seung
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.294-303
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    • 2013
  • BACKGROUND: It is well known that rice-fields can provide excellent foraging places for birds including seasonal migrants, wintering, and breeding and hence the high biodiversity of rice-fields may be expected. However, how environmental change including climate-changes on life-history and population dynamics in birds on rice-fields has not been fully understood. In order to investigate how climate-change affects population migratory patterns and migration timing, I modeled a population dynamics of birds in rice-fields over a whole year. METHODS AND RESULTS: I applied the Lotka-Volterra equation to model the population dynamics of birds that have been foraging/visiting rice-fields in Korea. The simple model involves the number of interspecific individuals and temperature, and the model parameters are periodic in time as the biological activities related to the migration, wintering and reproduction are seasonal. As results, firstly there was a positive relationship between the variation of seasonal population sizes and temperature change. Secondly, the reduced lengths of season were negatively related to the population size. Overall, the effects of the difference of lengths of season on seasonal population dynamics were higher than the effects of seasonal temperature change. CONCLUSION(S): Climate change can alter population dynamics of birds in rice-fields and hence the variation may affect the fitness, such as reproduction, survival and migration. The unstable balances of population dynamics in birds using paddy rice field as affected by climate change can reduce the population growth and species diversity in rice fields. The results suggest that the agricultural production is partly affected by the unstable balance of population in birds using rice-fields.

Prediction of Highy Pathogenic Avian Influenza(HPAI) Diffusion Path Using LSTM (LSTM을 활용한 고위험성 조류인플루엔자(HPAI) 확산 경로 예측)

  • Choi, Dae-Woo;Lee, Won-Been;Song, Yu-Han;Kang, Tae-Hun;Han, Ye-Ji
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2020
  • The study was conducted with funding from the government (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs) in 2018 with support from the Agricultural, Food, and Rural Affairs Agency, 318069-03-HD040, and in based on artificial intelligence-based HPAI spread analysis and patterning. The model that is actively used in time series and text mining recently is LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory Models) model utilizing deep learning model structure. The LSTM model is a model that emerged to resolve the Long-Term Dependency Problem that occurs during the Backpropagation Through Time (BPTT) process of RNN. LSTM models have resolved the problem of forecasting very well using variable sequence data, and are still widely used.In this paper study, we used the data of the Call Detailed Record (CDR) provided by KT to identify the migration path of people who are expected to be closely related to the virus. Introduce the results of predicting the path of movement by learning the LSTM model using the path of the person concerned. The results of this study could be used to predict the route of HPAI propagation and to select routes or areas to focus on quarantine and to reduce HPAI spread.

Analytical Study for the Safety Enhancement of the Bird Strike to Small Aircraft using a Crushable Foam (Crushable Foam을 이용한 소형항공기 조류충돌 안전성 향상에 관한 해석적 연구)

  • Park, Ill-Kyung;Choi, Ik-Hyun;Ahn, Seok-Min;Lee, Sang-Jong;Yeom, Chan-Hong
    • Aerospace Engineering and Technology
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2008
  • The Bird strike to small aircraft has not been an issue because of it's low speed and usage as a private aircraft. So, the compliance of the bird strike regulation is limited to large fixed-wing aircraft such as the commuter category in FAR Part 23 and the civil aircraft in FAR Part 25, generally. However, the forecast of dramatic increasing of VLJ(Very Light Jet) and (light time of general aviation due to Air-taxi for the point to point transportation, would rise up the need of bird strike regulations and a safety enhancement in normal and utility categorized aircraft. In this study, the safety enhancement concept using a crushable foam for the bird strike to small aircraft wing leading edge, and the evaluation about the safety of the bird strike to small aircraft are proposed using the explicit finite element analysis.

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The Relationships of Green Euglenoids to Environmental Variables in Jeonjucheon, Korea (전주천의 녹색 유글레나조류와 환경요인과의 상호관계)

  • Kim, Jun-Tae;Boo, Sung-Min
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.34 no.2 s.94
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    • pp.81-89
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    • 2001
  • In order to know relationships between green euglenoids and environmental factors, the species composition and density were assessed for 12 months together with environmental variables in the Jeonjucheon urban drainage, Korea. Nitrate was a high of 3.22 mg/1 in June and phosphate concentration was over 0.71 mg/l in the winter. The euglenoids totaled 5 genera and 71 species throughout the year, increasing in the early summer (35 to 42 texa) and decreasing in the winter (below 20 taxa). The number of green euglenoids positively correlated with surface water temperature. the total density of the green euglenoids showed a typical bimodal pattern, being maximal in the winter (5,394 cells/ml in June). The winter peak was a result of active growths of Euglena caudata, E. geniculata and E. viridis, however, each of which positively correlated with the phosphate. The early summer peak was attributed to Euglena deses, Lepocinclis ovum, and Phacus trypanon, each of which positively correlated with the ammonium and nitrate. The complete bimodal spectrum of species number and density of green euglenoids provides a sensitive image in detecting the changes of environmental variables in polluted waters such as Jeonjucheon.

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Analysis of Water Quality Variation by Lowering of Water Level in Gangjeong-Goryong Weirin Nakdong River (낙동강 강정고령보 수위저하 운영에 따른 수질 변동특성 분석)

  • Park, Dae-Yeon;Park, Hyung-Seok;Kim, Sung-Jin;Chung, Se-Woong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.245-262
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    • 2019
  • The objectives of this study were to construct a three-dimensional water quality model (EFDC) for the river reach between Chilgok Weir and Gangjeong-Goryong Weir (GGW) located in Nakdong River, and evaluate the effect of hydraulic changes, such as water level and flow velocity, on the control of water quality and algae biomass. After calibration, the model accurately simulated the temporal changes of the upper and lower water temperatures that collected every 10 minutes, and appropriately reproduced changes in organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus, and cyanobacteria. However, the simulated values were overestimated for the diatoms and green algae cell density, possibly due to the uncertainties of the parameters associated with algae metabolism and the lack of zooplankton predation function in the simulations. As a result of scenario simulation of running the water level of GGW from EL. 19.44 m to EL. 14.90 m (4.54 m drop), Chl-a and algae cell density decreased significantly.In particular,the cyanobacteria on the surface layer, which causes algal bloom, declined by 56.1% in the low water level scenario compared to the existing management level. The results of this study are in agreement with the previous studies that maintenance of critical flow velocity is effective for controlling cyanobacteria, and imply that hydraulic control such as decrease of water level and residence time in GGW is an alternative to limit the overgrowth of algae.