• Title/Summary/Keyword: 조류예측

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Enhancing Red Tides Prediction using Fuzzy Reasoning and Naive Bayes Classifier (나이브베이스 분류자와 퍼지 추론을 이용한 적조 발생 예측의 성능향상)

  • Park, Sun;Lee, Seong-Ro
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.1881-1888
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    • 2011
  • Red tide is a natural phenomenon to bloom harmful algal, which fish and shellfish die en masse. Red tide damage with respect to sea farming has been occurred each year. Red tide damage can be minimized by means of prediction of red tide blooms. Red tide prediction using naive bayes classifier can be achieve good prediction results. The result of naive bayes method only determine red tide blooms, whereas the method can not know how increasing of red tide algae density. In this paper, we proposed the red tide blooms prediction method using fuzzy reasoning and naive bayes classifier. The proposed method can enhance the precision of red tide prediction and forecast the increasing density of red tide algae.

A new numerical algorithm of tsunami models for considering tide-tsunami interaction (조석-지진해일 상호작용을 고려한 지진해일 예측 알고리즘)

  • Yoon, Jae Seon;Ha, Taemin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.104-104
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    • 2021
  • 연안에 발생하는 지진해일은 많은 인명 및 재산 피해를 유발할 수 있다. 이에 따라 주요 선진국은 자국의 피해 뿐 아니라 세계 주요도시에 거주하는 자국민의 안전과 대피에 대한 경보발령을 목적으로 전지구 지진해일 시스템을 구축하여 상시 운영중에 있다. 우리나라의 지진해일 예측시스템은 지진해일의 발생과 전파, 그리고 전세계 주요 연안에 도달할 때의 해일고 모의 등에서 우수한 성과를 보이는 것으로 인정되고 있으나, 실제적인 위험경보를 발령하기 위해서 필요한 해일도달 시 조위와의 상호작용에 대한 기능은 현재 없는 상태이다. 해일에 의한 주된 피해는 연안으로의 범람에 대한 것으로 이를 파악하기 위해서는 해일 도달 당시의 조위를 예측하고 해일과 조석과의 상호작용을 반영한 예측시스템 구축이 필요하다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 현재 사용되고 있는 지진해일 예측모델에서 조석-지진해일 상호작용을 고려하기 위해 조석과 지진해일을 동시에 모의할 수 있는 예측 알고리즘을 제시한다. 지진해일의 전파 및 범람에 조석이 상당한 영향을 미칠 수 있음은 관련 연구자들에 의해 꾸준히 지적되어왔으나 과거 연구는 이상적인 지형이나 조석 조건에 대해서만 일부 이루어졌으며, 아직까지 실제 조석을 활용한 충분한 연구는 미흡한 실정이다. 향후 실제 조석에 의한 지진해일의 변화를 모의하기 위해 지진해일 예측모델에서 실제 조석과 조류 조건에서 지진해일을 동시에 모의할 수 있도록 예측 알고리즘을 개발하였다.

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Effects of weather change, human disturbance and interspecific competition on life-history and migration of wintering Red-crowned cranes (기후변화와 인간의 방해 및 종간경쟁이 두루미 월동생태와 이동에 미치는 영향)

  • Hong, Mi-Jin;Lee, Who-Seung;Yoo, Jeong-Chil
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.681-692
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    • 2015
  • It is well documented that physiological and nutritional condition of wintering birds is strongly related to migration success to breeding sites, and also breeding success. However, how abiotic factors during winter affect the migration and breeding successes still remains unclear. Thus, this study developed a dynamic-state-dependent model for wintering life-history to identify the potential impact on the life-history, success to breeding site and breeding success of wintering birds, which are related to temperature fluctuation, interspecific competition and human disturbance at the wintering sites. To find the best-fit-model, we referred to the existing research data on wintering ecology of Red-crowned cranes (Grus japonensis) in Cheolwon, Korea, which is well documented as a long-term wintering study. Our model predicted that the higher temperature fluctuation and a higher rate of human disturbance are negatively related to migration success to breeding sites and their fitness, ultimately breeding success via changing of proportion in resource allocation (for e. g., lower energy compensation or higher level of stress accumulation). Particularly, the rate of body mass compensation after arrival at wintering sites may be accelerated when there are less temperature fluctuations and a lower rate of human disturbance. In addition, the rate of interspecific competition sharing the wintering foraging sites is negatively related to the rate of body mass compensation. Consequently, we discussed the conservation strategies of wintering birds based on the outcomes of the model.

Effect of Ocean Renewable Energy on the Ecosystem (해양 신.재생에너지 개발이 생태계에 미치는 영향)

  • Myung, Cheol-Soo;Yoo, Jeong-Kyu;Lee, Kwang-Soo;Koo, Bon-Joo;Choi, Joong-Ki
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.138-140
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    • 2006
  • 해양 신 재생에너지 개발에 의해 생태계에 미치는 영향을 최소화하기 위한 방안을 모색하기 위하여 환경변화 사례와 예측하였다 해양에너지의 개발은 필수적으로 해양환경 및 생태계에 변화를 초래하여 조력발전시설의 경우 조간대에 서식하는 저서생물의 종다양성을 감소시키고 철새 등의 조류의 종수 및 개체수의 변화를 가져오고 조력 및 조류발전 터빈시설은 수생생물의 기계적 충돌에 의한 사망률을 증가시킨다 이러한 해양 신 재생에너지의 개발과 더불어 생태계의 영향을 최소화하기 위한 조사 및 연구가 병행되어야 개발 후 상용화단계에서 가장 합리적인 자연보전의 방안을 제시하고 지역사회와의 갈등을 최소화 할 수 있는 과학적인 자료를 도출 할 수 있다.

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Routes Analysis of HPAI Propagation using Sequential Pattern Mining (순차패턴 마이닝을 이용한 HPAI 확산경로 분석)

  • Xu, Zhenshun;Lee, Jeonguk;Park, Daihee;Chung, Yongwha
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2016.04a
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    • pp.616-619
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    • 2016
  • 고병원성 조류 인플루엔자는 빠른 확산과 높은 치사율로 인하여 발병 초기에 질병의 확산경로 및 확산범위를 예측한다는 것은 매우 어려운 문제이면서 동시에 반듯이 해결해야만 하는 중요한 과제이다. 본 연구에서는 공개된 법정 고병원성 조류인플루엔자의 발병데이터를 기반으로 순차패턴 마이닝을 적용하여 질병의 순차적인 확산경로 규칙을 도출한 후, 그 결과를 바탕으로 지역개념계층(location concept hierarchy)에 따른 추상화 레벨의 점진적인 조절을 통하여 지역 원도우의 확대와 축소를 적용함으로써 도시(city)레벨부터 리(street)레벨까지의 질병확산경로 그래프와 GIS기반의 질병확산경로에 대한 분석을 시도하였다.

Oil Spill Behavior forecasting Model in South-eastern Coastal Area Of Korea (한국 동남해역에서의 유출유 확산예측모델)

  • Ryu Cheong Ro;Kim Jong Kyu;Seol Dong Guan;Kang Dong Uk
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.52-59
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    • 1998
  • Many concerns are placed on preservation of coastal environment from the spilled oil contaminant in the coastal area. And the use of computer simulation model to combat with oil spill has come to play mote important role in forecasting the oil spill trajectory so as to protect coastal area and minimize the damage from oil contaminants. The main concerns of this study is how the movements of spilled oil are affected by currents including tidal, oceanic, and wind-driven currents. Especially, in the present paper, the oil spill trajectory can be predicted by a real-time system that allows prediction of circulation and wind field. The harmonic methods are adopted to simulate the tidal currents as well as it can be possible to achieve the wind-field data and oceanic current data from the established database. System performance is illustrated by the simulation of oil spill in the south-eastern coastal area of Korea. Simulation results are compared with the observed one.

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Geovisualization of Coastal Ocean Model Data Using Web Services and Smartphone Apps (웹서비스와 스마트폰앱을 이용한 연안해양모델 예측자료의 시각화시스템 구현)

  • Kim, Hyung-Woo;Koo, Bon-Ho;Woo, Seung-Buhm;Lee, Ho-Sang;Lee, Yang-Won
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2014
  • Ocean leisure sports have recently emerged as one of so-called blue ocean industries. They are sensitive to diverse environmental conditions such as current, temperature, and salinity, which can increase needs of forecasting data as well as in-situ observations for the ocean. In this context, a Web-based geovisualization system for coastal information produced by model forecasts was implemented for use in supporting various ocean activities. First, FVCOM(Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model) was selected as a forecasting model, and its data was preprocessed by a spatial interpolation and sampling library. The interpolated raster data for water surface elevation, temperature, and salinity were stored in image files, and the vector data for currents including speed and direction were imported into a distributed DBMS(Database Management System). Web services in REST(Representational State Transfer) API(Application Programming Interface) were composed using Spring Framework and integrated with desktop and mobile applications developed on the basis of hybrid structure, which can realize a cross-platform environment for geovisualization.

The Application of an Algal Fence for the Reduction of Algal Intake into the Water Intake Facility (조류펜스의 조류 저감 효과에 대한 실험적인 평가)

  • Jang, Min-Ho;Park, Sung-Bae;Jung, Jong-Mun;Roh, Jae-Soon;정광석, Kwang-Seuk;Joo, Gea-Jae
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.36 no.4 s.105
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    • pp.467-472
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    • 2003
  • In this study, an algal fence was developed and applied to reduce the input of algal scum into the water intake facility. The effectiveness of vertical algal fences(overlapped three types of meshes, (312 ${\mu}m$ ${\times}$ 375 ${\mu}m$, 390 ${\mu}m$ ${\times}$ 450 ${\mu}m$, and 0,7 cm ${\times}$ 1cm; vertical depth, 1.5 m; length of fence, about 120 m)) was experimentally tested at a water intake facility (Mulgum, lower Nakdong River). The application of the fence resulted in the statistically significant difference of algal biomass between inside and outside of the fence. According to ANOVA test, chi. a concentration in Day-1showed large difference at each depth of 0, 1, 2 m (0.001> p at each depth, n = 16 respectively). Especially large difference was observed at 0 and 1 m depth. However, the fence was only effective for a short period and its efficiency declined by Day-5after the installation. When better maintenance options for the fence are prepared, e.g. mechanical installation and periodic backwashing of the fence, the performance of algal fence may be sustained. In addition, reliable models for bloom prediction are required to provide an advanced indication of the optimal timing for the installation so that effective operation would be achieved.

Analytical Study for the Safety of the Bird Strike to the Small Aircraft Having a Composite Wing (복합재 주익을 갖는 소형항공기 조류충돌 시 안전성에 관한 해석적 연구)

  • Park, Ill-Kyung;Kim, Seung-Jun;Choe, Ik-Hyun;An, Seok-Min;Yeo, Chan-Hong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.117-124
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    • 2010
  • The bird strike to small aircraft has not been an issue because of its low speed and usage as a private aircraft. So, the compliance of the bird strike regulation is limited to large fixed-wing aircraft such as the commuter category in FAR Part 23 and the civil aircraft in FAR Part 25, generally. However, the forecast of dramatic increasing of VLJ(Very Light Jet), the usage of a composite material for an aircraft structure and flight time of general aviation due to Air-taxi for the point to point transportation, would rise up the need of bird strike regulations and a safety enhancement in normal and utility categorized aircraft. In this study, the safety of bird strike to small aircraft wing leading edge made of a metal and a composite material were compared using the explicit finite element analysis.

Study of the Mitigation of Algae in Lake Uiam according to the Operation of the Chuncheon Dam and the Soyang Dam (춘천댐 및 소양강댐 운영에 따른 의암호 조류 저감 연구)

  • Lee, Dong Yeol;Baek, Kyong Oh
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2022
  • In this study, the characteristics of algae mitigation according to dam operation were quantitatively analyzed for Uiam Lake, where the Chuncheon Dam is located upstream of the main stream, Uiam Dam is located downstream, and Soyang Dam is located in the tributary stream. Nine dam operation scenarios were applied to the event of the summer of 2018 (at that time an algae alert occurred) using the EFDC model, which is capable of calculating three-dimensional hydrodynamics and water quality levels such as those associated with chlorophyll-a. The dam operation scenarios were set to generate a flushing effect via discharges in the form of pulse waves from the upstream dams and by lowering the water level at the downstream dam. At Uiam Lake, the flushing effect was different depending on the operation of the dam, and the amount of algae reduction at each point was different owing to topographic characteristics and the different base water temperatures from BukHan River and Soyang River. With regard to a point located on the left bank, it was predicted that the peak level of chlorophyll-a would be reduced by approximately 50 % or more upon pulsed discharge at 50 m3/s for three days at Soyang Dam. However, for the right bank, the amount of discharge from Soyang Dam had little effect on algae mitigation. Therefore, an appropriate dam operation could be effective for algae mitigation at specific points in the water body where large dams exist upstream and downstream, such as at Uiam Lake, in an emergency situation in which algal blooms rapidly.