• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.16 no.7
• /
• pp.4863-4870
• /
• 2015

Currently, as a priority to secure the safety of the railway signalling system, verification for satisfy of the safety integrity requirements(SIR) is required to the essential elements. Safety Integrity Requirements(SIR) verification is performed based on the system safety analysis. But the probability of securing basic data for system safety analysis significantly dropped because there is no experience yet performed in the country. Therefore we are had to rely on a qualitative analysis. There are methods such as qualitative risk analysis matrix, and risk graphs. The qualitative analysis is wide, the width of the accident. However, the reliability of the result is significantly less has a disadvantage. Therefore, it should be parallel quantitative safety analysis of the system/products in order to compensate for the disadvantages of the qualitative analysis. This paper presents a quantitative safety analysis method to overcome the disadvantages of the qualitative analysis. And through a result, highly reliable Safety Integrity Requirements(SIR) verification measures proposed. Verification results, the dangerous failure incidence for vital data processing device was calculated to be $1.172279{\times}10^{-9}$. The result was verified to exceed the required safety integrity targets more.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.17 no.8
• /
• pp.105-113
• /
• 2019

The purpose of this study is to analyze cyber security risk modeling of critical infrastructure, draw out limitations and improvement measures. This paper analyzed cyber security risk modeling of national critical infrastructure like as electricity sector, nuclear power plant, SCADA. This paper analyzed the 26 precedent research cases of risk modeling in electricity sector, nuclear power plant, SCADA. The latest Critical Infrastructure is digitalized and has a windows operating system. Critical Infrastructure should be operated at all times, it is not possible to patch a vulnerability even though find vulnerability. This paper suggest the advanced cyber security modeling characteristic during the life cycle of the critical infrastructure and can be prevented.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.231-252
• /
• 2002

2000년 7월부터 채권시가평가의 실행으로 채권운용자들도 채권포트폴리오의 위험을 채권선물을 이용하여 통제하거나 감소시키기 위해 헤지를 하여야 한다. 이때 헤지비율을 추정하는 방법으로는 전통적 회귀분석모형, 백터오차수정모형(Vector Error Correction Model : VECM)과 VAR모형(Vector AutoRegressive Model)이 있다. 전통적인 회귀분석모형에 의하여 추정된 헤지비율은 시계열자료의 불안정성(nonstationary) 등으로 인하여 잘못 추정될 가능성이 있어 면밀한 검토와 분석 후 사용하여야 한다. 시계열자료의 불안정성으로 말미암아 야기되는 문제점들을 개선할 수 있는 모형으로서 VECM과 VAR모형이 널리 이용되고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 VECM과 VAR모형을 사용하여 추정된 헤지비율과 전통적 회귀분석모형을 사용하여 추정한 헤지비율을 비교하여 어떤 모형으로 추정한 헤지비율이 더 정확한지를 평가하는데 목적을 두고 있다. 즉, 본 연구는 KTB 현 선물의 헤징에 대한 연구로 2000년 1월 4일부터 2001년 7월 27일까지 385일간의 KTB 현 선물 자료와 불룸버그 국채지수를 대상으로 VECM 및 VAR모형과 전통적 회귀분석모형에 의한 헤지비율을 추정하고 각 모형의 설명력과 예측력을 비교하고자 한다. 이 연구의 실증분석 결과, KTB 현물가격과 KTB 선물가격간, 블룸버그 국채지수와 KTB 선물가격간에는 공적분 관계가 존재하며, VECM 및 VAR와 전통적 회귀분석모형을 이용하여 추정한 최적헤지비율의 크기는 대동소이(大同小異)하며, 전통적 회귀분석방법을 이용하는 것이 VECM과 VAR모형을 이용할 때 보다 설명력과 예측력이 우월한 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.40 no.1
• /
• pp.27-34
• /
• 2016

For the prevention of marine casualties, international bodies have mainly focused on strengthening ship's stability and design, maritime education and training, and improving maritime traffic environment. Statistics analysis on marine casualties showed that most of casualties occurred in coastal waters, especially by human elements. In order to review the conformity of existing prevention measures with the result of the statistics analysis, the IMO's SHELL model was applied to the established measures. As a result, ergonomic approaches were needed for the prevention of human errors in coastal waters, so that the priority should be given to the interface between ship's operator and navigational environment. For this study, Rasmussen's SRK pyramid, which showed decision making mechanism of human, and the US Coast Guard's investigation manual on marine casualties concerning the collapse of safe maritime transportation system were reviewed, and the merits and demerits within the risk assessment tools such as IWRAP, PAWSA, ES model, PARK model, and NURI model were also studied. Although the effectiveness of the existing risk assessment models was proved in ports and approaching channels, it is concluded that the need of new models for converting Korean seafarers' qualitative risk to quantitative risk was proposed so as to print hazard maps which make seafarers instinctively recognize comparative hazard levels of coastal waters.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartC
• /
• v.10C no.4
• /
• pp.423-432
• /
• 2003

It is essential suity management and standardized asset analysis for telecommunication networks, however existing risk analysis methods and tools are not enough to give shape of the method to evaluate value and asset. they only support asset classification schemes. Moreover, since the existing asset classification schemes are to evaluate comprehensive general risk, they are not appropriate for being applied telecommunication networks and they can´t offer any solutions to an evaluator´s subjectivity problem. In this paper, to solve these problems, we introduce the standardized definition of asset evaluation model new asset classification scheme, two-dimensional asset process classification scheme to consider business process and asset, various evaluation standards for quantitative value and qualitative evaluation. To settle an valuator´s subjectivity problem, we proposed $\beta$-distribution Delphi method.

• Review of KIISC
• /
• v.29 no.3
• /
• pp.29-36
• /
• 2019

폭발적으로 성장하는 소셜 미디어 서비스로 인해 개인간의 연결이 강화된 환경에서는 URL로써 전파되는 피싱 공격의 위험성이 크게 강조된다. 최근 텍스트 분류 및 모델링 분야에서 그 성능을 입증받은 딥러닝 알고리즘은 피싱 URL의 구문적, 의미적 특징을 각각 모델링하기에 적절하지만, 기존에 사용하는 규칙 기반 앙상블 방법으로는 문자와 단어로부터 추출되는 특징간의 비선형적인 관계를 효과적으로 융합하는데 한계가 있다. 본 논문에서는 피싱 URL의 구문적, 의미적 특징을 체계적으로 융합하기 위한 컨볼루션 신경망 기반의 퓨전 신경망을 제안하고 기계학습 방법 중 최고의 분류정확도 (0.9804)를 달성하였다. 학습 및 테스트 데이터셋으로 45,000건의 정상 URL과 15,000건의 피싱 URL을 수집하였고, 정량적 검증으로 10겹 교차검증과 ROC커브, 정성적 검증으로 오분류 케이스와 딥러닝 내부 파라미터를 시각화하여 분석하였다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.42 no.1
• /
• pp.11-21
• /
• 2022

Drought occurs extensively over a long period and causes great socio-economic damage. Since drought risk consists of social, environmental, physical, and economic factors along with meteorological and hydrological factors, it is important to quantitatively identify their impacts on drought risk. This study investigated the relationship among drought hazard, vulnerability, response capacity, and risk in Chungcheongbuk-do using a structural equation model and evaluated their impacts on drought risk using Bayesian networks. We also performed sensitivity analysis to investigate how the factors change drought risk. Overall results showed that Chungju-si had the highest risk of drought. The risk was calculated as the largest even when the hazard and response capacity were changed. However, when the vulnerability was changed, Eumseong-gun had the greatest risk. The sensitivity analysis showed that Jeungpyeong-gun had the highest sensitivity, and Jecheon-si, Eumseong-gun, and Okcheon-gun had highest individual sensitivities with hazard, vulnerability, and response capacity, respectively. This study concluded that it is possible to identify impact factors on drought risk using regional characteristics, and to prepare appropriate drought countermeasures considering regional drought risk.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
• /
• v.12 no.4
• /
• pp.23-44
• /
• 2013

Climate change affects human and natural environment. Many countries, including Korea, are trying to develop climate change adaptation strategies to minimize adverse impacts of climate change. To deal with climate change efficiently, decisions have to be made among many options. The objectives of this paper is to analyzes methodologies for prioritizing climate change adaptation measures. Each methodology has strength and weakness and information requirements are differ. We find multi-criteria analysis is one of useful tools considering current level of understanding on climate change adaptation. We suggest climate change risks(timing, likelihood, intensity of climate change impacts), feasibility of policy (equity, main-streaming, democracy), effectiveness (economic effectiveness, co-benefits, propagation effects) of adaptation measures as main evaluation criteria of prioritization.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2012.06a
• /
• pp.366-368
• /
• 2012

선박조종시뮬레이션의 평가항목 중 운항자[주관적] 평가는 선박조종 시뮬레이션을 선박운항자가 안전진단대상사업으로 인하여 느끼는 심리적 부담 또는 위험도를 평가하는 것이다. 해상교통안전진단 시행지침 상 운항자[주관적] 평가의 결과가 평균-2.0이상인 경우 해상교통환경 변화에 따른 통항 및 접이안 안전성 확보가 가능하다고 평가하고 있으나 정성적인 평가기준 -2.0에 대한 명확한 근거가 부족하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 현재까지 제출된 진단보고서 중 116건의 시뮬레이션 결과 나타난 운항자[주관적] 평가값을 사업대상별로 분류하여 톤수, 선종, 입출항별 분석을 통한 문제점을 도출하고 이에 대한 기술기준 개선(안)을 제시하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
• /
• v.11 no.4
• /
• pp.404-409
• /
• 2008

This paper consists largely of two parts: the first part introduces the revised railway human reliability analysis (R-HRA) method which is to be used under the railway risk assessment framework, and the second part presents the features of a computer software which was developed for aiding the R-HRA process. The revised R-HRA method supplements the original R-HRA method by providing a specific task analysis guideline and a classification of performance shaping factors (PSFs) to support a consistent analysis between analysts. The R-HRA software aids the analysts in gathering information for HRA, qualitative error prediction including identification of external error modes and internal error modes, quantification of human error probability, and reporting the overall analysis results. The revised R-HRA method and software are expected to support the analysts in an effective and efficient way in analysing human error potential in railway event or accident scenarios.