• Title/Summary/Keyword: 정상적 예측 방법

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Design a Realtime Network Traffic Prediction System based on Timeseries Analysis (시계열 분석을 이용한 실시간 네트워크 트래픽 예측 시스템의 설계)

  • Jung, Sang-Joon;Kwon, Young-Hun;Choi, Hyck-Su;Kim, Chong-Gun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2001.10b
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    • pp.1323-1326
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    • 2001
  • 서브네트워크에서 실시간으로 통신 트래픽을 감시하고, 트래픽 정보를 바탕으로 시계열 분석을 이용해 트래픽의 변화추이를 예측할 수 있는 시스템을 설계 및 구현한다. SNMP를 이용한 MIB-II 정보를 바탕으로 하는 분석 방법은 누적 데이터를 기본으로 하는 관리 방법으로 이상 징후의 판단이 실시간 감시에는 적합하지 않은 점이 있다. 따라서, 본 논문에서는 실시간 트래픽 감시를 위해 서브네트워크에 들어오거나 나가는 트래픽의 양을 측정하여 분석하고, 이 정보를 바탕으로 특정 시점 이후의 트래픽 추이를 시계열 분석 방법을 이용하여 미래의 트래픽 양을 예측하는 알고리즘을 시스템으로 구현한다. 예측 알고리즘으로는 AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA 모델중에 평균 제곱 오차를 최소로 가지는 알고리즘을 선택하여 예측하도록 설계한다. 개발되는 시스템을 망 관리자가 전체 통신 네트워크의 부하 상태를 예상할 수 있게 하여 신속하고 예방적인 대응을 할 수 있다.

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Fast Detection of Abnormal Data in IIoT with Segmented Linear Regression (분할 선형 회귀 분선을 통한 IIoT의 빠른 비정상 데이터 탐지)

  • Lee, Tae-Ho;Kim, Min-Woo;Lee, Byung-Jun;Kim, Kyung-Tae;Youn, Hee-Yong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2019.07a
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    • pp.101-102
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    • 2019
  • 산업용 IoT (IIoT)는 최근들어 제조 시스템의 중요한 구성 요소로 간주된다. IIoT를 통해 시설에서 감지된 데이터를 수집하여 작동 조건을 적절하게 분석하고 처리한다. 여기서 비정상적인 데이터는 전체 시스템의 안전성 및 생산성을 위해 신속하게 탐지되어야한다. 기존 임계 값 기반 방법은 임계 값 미만의 유휴 오류 또는 비정상적인 동작을 감지 할 수 없으므로 IIoT에 적합하지 않다. 본 논문에서는 예측 구간과 우선 순위기반 스케줄링을 이용한 분할 선형 회귀 분석을 기반으로 비정상적인 데이터를 검출하는 새로운 방법을 제안한다. 시뮬레이션 결과 제안한 기법은 비정상적인 데이터 검출 속도에서 임계치, 일반 선형 회귀 또는 FCFS 정책을 사용하는 기존의 기법보다 우수함을 알 수 있었다.

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An evaluation of the adequacy of pont's index (Pont 지수의 임상적 적합성에 대한 평가)

  • Kim, Seong-Hun;Lee, Ki-Soo
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.30 no.1 s.78
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 2000
  • Dental arch expansion is one of the method used to solve the dental crowding problem by non-extraction. Many formulae using tooth size have been suggested to predict ideal inter-premolar and inter-molar width. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the adequacy of some upper dental arch width prediction methods, namely Pont's method, Schmuth's method and Cha's method. The sample consisted of the casts of 119 Korean young adults who had no muscular abnormality, no skeletal discrepancy, and Angle's Class I molar relationships. Measurements were obtained directly from plaster casts; they Included mesiodistal crown diameters of the four maxillary incisors, as well as maxillary inter-first-premolar and inter-first-molar arch widths as specified by Pont. The correlation coefficients between the sum of incisors(SI) and upper dental arch width were calculated. The differences between predicted width and actual width were classified as overestimated, properestimated, and underestimated. The data obtained from each group were analyzed for statistical differences. The results were as follows : 1. Upper dental arch width indices were calculated from SI in normal occlusion (81.96 : premolar index, 62.55 : molar index). 2. Low correlations between SI and arch width were noted in normal occlusion (0.50 in the inter-premolar width, 0.39 in the inter-molar width). 3. Pont's formula and Schmuth's formula tended to overestimate the inter-premolar width. A more even distribution of estimates was noted in Cha's fomula. 4. Cases within $\pm$1 mm range of observed inter-premolar width were $45\%$ in the Cha's formula, $40\%$ in the Pont's formula, and $39\%$ in the Schmuth's formula. 5. All formulae had a tendency to underestimate the inter-molar width, but Cha's formula had better predictability than others. 6. Cases within $\pm$1 mm range of observed inter-molar width were $40\%$ in the Cha's formula, $29\%$ in the Pont's formula, and $13\%$ of Schmuth's formula. The data presented in this study does not support the clinical usefulness of ideal arch width prediction methods using the mesiodistal width of maxillary incisors.

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Forecasting High-Level Ozone Concentration with Fuzzy Clustering (퍼지 클러스터링 이용한 고농도오존예측)

  • 김재용;김성신;왕보현
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.336-339
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    • 2001
  • The ozone forecasting systems have many problems because the mechanism of the ozone concentration is highly complex, nonlinear, and nonstationary. Especially, the performance of the prediction results in the high-level ozone concentration are not good. This paper describes the modeling method of the ozone prediction system using neuro-fuzzy approaches and fuzzy clustering methods. The dynamic polynomial neural network (DPNN) based upon a typical algorithm of GMDH (group method of data handling) is a useful method for data analysis, the identification of nonlinear complex systems, and prediction of dynamical systems.

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Real-time Aircraft Upset Detection and Prevention Based On Extended Kalman Filter (확장칼만필터를 이용한 항공기 비정상 비행상황 판단 및 방지를 위한 실시간 대처법 연구)

  • Woo, Beomki;Park, On;Kim, Seungkeun;Suk, Jinyoung;Kim, Youdan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.45 no.9
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    • pp.724-733
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    • 2017
  • Accidents caused by upset condition leads to fatal damage to both manned and unmanned aircraft. This paper deals with real-time detection of these aircraft upset situations to prevent further severe situations. Firstly, the difference between sensor measurement and predicted measurement from Extended Kalman filter is monitored to determine whether a target aircraft goes into an upset condition or not. In addition, repeating the time update stage of the Extended Kalman filter for a specific length of time can enable future upset situation prediction. The results of aforementioned both the approaches will build a bridge to upset prevention for future generation of manned/unmanned aircraft.

Dynamic Capacity Concept and its Determination for Managing Congested Flow (혼잡교통류 관리를 위한 동적 용량의 개념 및 산정방법)

  • Park, Eun-Mi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.3 s.74
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    • pp.159-166
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    • 2004
  • The capacity concept presented in the Highway Capacity Manual is for steady-state traffic flow assuming that there is no restriction in downstream flowing, which is traditionally used for planning, design, and operational analyses. In the congested traffic condition, the control objective should be to keep the congested regime from growing and to recover the normal traffic condition as soon as possible. In this control case, it is important to predict the spatial-temporal pattern of congestion evolution or dissipation and to estimate the throughput reduction according to the spatial-temporal pattern. In this context, the new concept of dynamic capacity for managing congested traffic is developed in terms of spatial-temporal evolution of downstream traffic congestion and in view of the 'input' concept assuming that flow is restricted by downstream condition rather than the 'output' concept assuming that there is no restriction in downstream flowing (e.g. the mean queue discharge flow rate). This new capacity is defined as the Maximum Sustainable Throughput that is determined based on the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of downstream congestion. And the spatial-temporal evolution pattern is estimated using the Newell's simplified q-k model.

Effects of Ancillary Actvities on Passenger Flows in Airport Terminals (공항청사의 부대시설이 여객동선에 미치는 영향)

  • 박창호
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.17-31
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    • 1984
  • 공항의 용량측정은 수요군의 흐름에서 발생하는 소비시간분석을 요구하며 공항체계 의 대부분 시설에서는 흐름의 시간변위를 연속대기례에 의한 비효율적방법으로 예측할수도 있으나 청사내의 여객동선에 대해서는 여러 시설을 활용하려는 여객의 선택선호로 인하여 확률적 접근이 바람직하다. 본 논문은 공항의 청사내에서 부대시설에 의하여 소비되는 여객 의 이완시간을 예측하는 모형을 개발하였다. 총이완시간은 여객이 각 시설을 이용하는 확률 과 이용시간의 기대치에 대한 함수로서 계산되었으며 정상적인 여객의 동선이 이들 시설에 의하여 영향을 받을 경우에만 정의되도록 하였다. 이 이완도는 연속된 청사의 기능시설에 대한 여객동선분포의 입력과 출력을 설명하는데 쓰이게 되며 나아가서는 청사전반의 용량산 정을 위한 지표를 제공한다. 모형 검증을 위한 자료는 매표대와 보안검사대 사이의 부대시 설을 중심으로 수집되었으며 자료의 특성과 모형의 심요성이 논의되었다.

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Efficient Prediction of Broadband Noise of a Centrifugal Fan Using U-FRPM Technique (U-FRPM 기법을 이용한 원심팬 광대역소음의 효율적 예측)

  • Heo, Seung;Cheong, Chulung
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.36-45
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    • 2015
  • Recently, a lot of studies have been made about the methods used to generate turbulent velocity fields stochastically in order to effectively predict broadband flow noise. Among them, the FRPM (Fast Random Particle Mesh) method which generates turbulence with specific statistical properties using turbulence kinetic energy and dissipation obtained from the steady solution of the RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes) equations has been successfully applied. However, the FRPM method cannot be applied to the flow noise problems involving intrinsic unsteady characteristics such as centrifugal fan. In this paper, to effectively predict the broadband noise generated by centrifugal fan, U-FRPM (unsteady FRPM) method is developed by extending the FRPM method to be combined with the unsteady numerical solutions of the unsteady RANS equations to generate the turbulence considered as broadband noise sources. Firstly, an unsteady flow field is obtained from the unsteady RANS equations through CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics). Then, noise sources are generated using the U-FRPM method combined with acoustic analogy. Finally, the linear propagation model which is realized through BEM (Boundary Element Method) is combined with the generated sources to predict broadband noise at the listeners' position. The proposed technique is validated to compare its prediction result with the measured data.

Identification of Foreign Objects in Soybeans Using Near-infrared Spectroscopy (근적외선 분광법을 이용한 콩과 이물질의 판별)

  • Lim, Jong-Guk;Kang, Sukwon;Lee, Kangjin;Mo, Changyeon;Son, Jaeyong
    • Food Engineering Progress
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.136-142
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this research was to classify intact soybeans and foreign objects using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Intact soybeans and foreign objects were scanned using a NIR spectrometer equipped with scanning monochromator. NIR spectra of intact soybeans and foreign objects in the wavelength range from 900 to 1800 nm were collected. The classification of intact soybeans and foreign objects were conducted by using partial least-square discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and soft independent modelling of class analogy (SIMCA) multivariate methods. Various types of data pretreatments were tested to develop the classification models. Intact soybeans and foreign objects were successfully classified by the PLS-DA prediction model with mean normalization pretreatment. These results showed the potential of NIR spectroscopy combined with multivariate analysis as a method for classifying intact soybeans and foreign objects.

Virtual Environment Hardware-In-the-Loop Simulation for Verification of OHT Controller (OHT 제어기 검증을 위한 가상환경 HIL 시뮬레이션)

  • Lee, Kwan Woo;Lee, Woong Geun;Park, Sang Chul
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2019
  • This paper presents a HILS(Hardware-In-the-Loop Simulation) approach for the verification of the OHT (Overhead Hoist Transport) controller in a semiconductor FAB. Since hundreds of OHTs can run simultaneously on the OHT network of a FAB, the full verification of the OHT controller is very essential to guarantee the stableness of the material handling system. The controller needs to fully consider not only normal situations but also abnormal situations that are difficult to predict. For the verification of the controller, we propose a HILS approach using a virtual environment including OHTs on a rail network, which can generate abnormal situations. The proposed HILS approach has been implemented and tested with various examples.