• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1117-1120
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• 2009

최근 이상기후와 같은 기후변화로 인한 기온, 강수 등의 변화는 안정적인 수자원 확보에 큰 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단되고 수자원을 필요로 하는 사회 모든 분야에 있어 큰 영향을 끼친다. 특히 농업, 공업, 도시의 용수 공급에 있어 변화는 더욱 심해질 것으로 판단되며 기후변화로 인한 기온, 강수 등의 변화의 정확한 분석이 필요로 한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 동아시아 해수면 온도와 우리나라 강수량에 대한 MSSA (Multi-channel Singular Spectrum Analysis)를 실시함으로 두 시계열 사이에 공통적으로 나타나는 변화, 즉 특정 상관 주기 변동을 분석함으로 두 변수 사이에 변화 상관 분석을 실시하였다. 우리나라 강수량 자료로는 현재 기상청에서 운영 중인 지상 기상관측소 76개소 중 가용관측소 61개소 자료에 대하여 1973년 1월부터 2008년 12월까지의 자료를 수집하여 월 평균값을 사용하였고 동아시아 해수면 온도 자료로는 한반도 근해 해수면 온도 변화, 남중국해 해수면 온도 변화, 인도양 해수면 온도 변화, 적도 해수면 온도 변화 등을 선택하여 관측시점부터 2008년 12월까지 자료를 수집하여 사용하였다. 분석 자료에 대해 선형 회귀분석을 통한 선형추세 제거와 정규화한 자료를 사용하여 각각의 지수에 대해 MSSA 분석을 실시하였다. 이때 window length는 Vautard 등(1992)이 제시한 N/5$^{\sim}$N/3의 값인 108의 값을 사용하였고 이때 각각의 고유치는 전체 공분산에 대한 각 요소의 비율을 설명한다. 상관분석 결과는 각 지수와 강수자료 사이에 높은 상관성을 가지는 장단주기 변화가 존재함을 보여주었다. 그럼에도 불구하고 우리나라 월강수자료의 전체 변화는 계절변화를 제외하고도 장단 주기를 가지는 시간변화가 자료 전체 변화의 절반에 해당하며 장주기 변화가 나타내는 부분이 미미하다. 이는 계절 주기를 제외한 자료들 사이의 상관변화가 설명할 수 있는 부분이 미미 하며 여러 기상지수들과 국내 강수량사이의 MSSA 분석을 통하여 제시 할 수 있는 변화의 정량적 정도가 매우 제한됨을 보여준다. 그럼에도 불구하고 이러한 접근을 통하여 강수 변화의 불확실성을 줄여나가는 노력이 필요하다고 하겠다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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• 2002.06a
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• pp.199-204
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• 2002

본 연구에서는 저압 증기 터빈블레이드의 안전성 확보를 위하여 작용응력 및 강도의 변동성을 고려한 확률론적 해석을 수행하였다. 정상상태에서 작용응력은 이론 및 유한요소해석에 의해서 얻을 수 있으며, 최대 von-Mises 응력은 215.4MPa이다. 회전굽힘 하중하에서의 피로한도는 응력비 R= -1에서 계단식 시험법을 이용하여 구하였으며, 이의 확률론적 특성에 가장 적합한 분포는 3 모수 와이블 분포이다. 그리고 신뢰성에 미치는 다양한 인자들의 영향은 영향계수(sensitivity factor)를 이용하여 정량적으로 평가하였다.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.13 no.8
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• pp.1647-1652
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• 2009

Generally the neural network and the fuzzy compensative algorithm are applied to forecast the time series for power demand with a characteristic of non-linear dynamic system, but it has a few prediction errors relatively. It also makes long term forecast difficult for sensitivity on the initial condition. On this paper, we evaluate the chaotic characteristic of electrical power demand with analysis methods of qualitative and quantitative and perform a forecast simulation of electrical power demand in regular sequence, attractor reconstruction, time series forecast for multi dimension using Lyapunov exponent quantitatively. We compare simulated results with the previous method and verify that the purpose one being more practice and effective than it.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.5-17
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• 2000

The physical and mechanical properties of the sedimentary rocks deposited in Taegu and Kyongbuk region have been measured in the laboratory and at the field. Four kinds of rocks such as the shale, the mudstone, the siltstone and the sandstone were the object of this study. In sedimentary rock joint, bedding made it impossible to extract cores for uniaxial compressive test. Some correlations between the uniaxial compressive strength and the other characteristic values such as Point load index, Schmidt hammer rebound, Brazilian strength, P-wave velocity and Absorption ratio are made. The chemical and mineral compositions are also investigated by the XRF and XRD analysis. In addition, the weathering grade of rocks are classified by the quantitative indices of Point load index, Schmidt hammer rebound and Absorption ratio.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.171-174
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• 2009

Generally the neural network and the fuzzy compensative algorithm are applied to forecast the time series for power demand with a characteristic of non-linear dynamic system, but it has a few prediction errors relatively. It also makes long term forecast difficult for sensitivity on the initial condition. On this paper, we evaluate the chaotic characteristic of electrical power demand with analysis methods of qualitative and quantitative and perform a forecast simulation of electrical power demand in regular sequence, attractor reconstruction, time series forecast for multi dimension using Lyapunov exponent quantitatively. We compare simulated results with the previous method and verify that the purpose one being more practice and effective than it.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.145-156
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• 2005

An artificial disturbance like forest fragmentation has affected the sustainability of forest ecosystem. Therefore, in order to manage the forest ecosystem efficiently needed to analyze quantity and quality (structural pattern) of forest simultaneously. This study analyzed the structural patterns of forest landscape to provide a basic data for evaluation and management of forest ecosystem in Nakdong River Basin during 10 years from 1980s to 1990s using landscape indices and GIS methods. Forest distribution maps and 6 landscape indices(LPI, PD, ED, MSI, CPLAND, IJI) for the analysis were reconstructed from land-cover maps constructed by Ministry of Environment and pearson correlation analysis. According to the structural analysis of forest landscape using landscape indices, the forest fragmentation of watersheds along the main stream of the Nakdong river was more severe than any other watersheds. Futhermore, the Nakong-sangju and Nakdong-miryang watersheds had unstable forest structures as well as least amount of forest quantity. Thus, these watersheds need significant amount of forest through a new forest management policy considering local environmental conditions. The connectivity between forests in local regions should be considered as well.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.3 s.164
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• pp.199-214
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• 2006

The efficient management strategies of reservoirs in periods of drought event are an essential element for drought planning. A Water Supply Capacity Index (WSCI) has been developed for the evaluation and effective monitoring of the supply capacity of a reservoir during a drought event. The WSCI is a measure of the duration that a reservoir can supply a required demand under the worst drought condition. The WSCI is not only a useful standard to refer to when making decisions on reservoir operations in a period of drought, but it can be also applied for setting the drought trigger in water demand sites supplied from the reservoir. The correlation between the standardized WSCI and existing drought indices such as PDSI, SPI and SWSI has been analyzed to the applicability of WSCI.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.95 no.6
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• pp.723-728
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• 2006

Since the forest succession is changing process in the structure and function of a forest for the long period of time, the objectivity of the process could be improved through the development of model or statistical methodology. This study was carried out to estimate succession index based on climax index and species composition parameters, thereupon to compare the succession index with life form and species diversity so as to grasp the information of quantitative successional process for the six community types in the natural deciduous forest of Mt. Jumbong area. The results indicated that Quercus mongolica-Tilia amurensis community had the greatest succession index of 67.5, followed by Abies holophylla-Fraxinus mandshurica community with 67.4. Juglans mandshurica-Cornus controversa community was recorded the smallest value of 60.5. The succession index of overstory tended to increase considerably at the stage of steady state for all community types except Quercus mongolica-Tilia amurensis community. However, The index of midstory hardly varied as the forest succession would progress for all community types. The succession index was negatively correlated to wind-water dispersion type of life form and positively to animal dispersion type at the 5% probability level. On the other hand, the index was not significantly correlated to the species richness and Shannon's species diversity index.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.8
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• pp.639-652
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• 2011

In this study, the suitability of drought indices was analyzed using the quantified drought records from official reports, newspapers and drought indices estimated using precipitation and air temperature data of 69 weather stations from 1973 to 2009. Test statistics of the suitability of meteorological drought indices were evaluated using the ROC analysis. Results demonstrated that PN shows the best relationships with drought records. SPI3 and Deciles Distribution Ratio also show good relationships with drought records and their variability according to the administrative divisions is relatively small. Results of the analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of drought and the accuracy of the drought indices can be used to evaluate the accuracy of drought indices in drought monitoring and prediction, and to select the best index in drought management.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.383-396
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• 2004

The application of spatial statistics to obtain the spatial uncertainty distributions in classification of remote sensing images is investigated in this paper. Two quantitative methods are presented for describing two kinds of uncertainty; one related to class assignment and the other related to the connection of reference samples. Three quantitative indices are addressed for the first category of uncertainty. Geostatistical simulation is applied both to integrate the exhaustive classification results with the sparse reference samples and to obtain the spatial uncertainty or accuracy distributions connected to those reference samples. To illustrate the proposed methods and to discuss the operational issues, the experiment was done on a multi-sensor remote sensing data set for supervised land-cover classification. As an experimental result, the two quantitative methods presented in this paper could provide additional information for interpreting and evaluating the classification results and more experiments should be carried out for verifying the presented methods.