• Title/Summary/Keyword: 절대상대오차

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Comparison of Rainfall Quantile using At-site Frequency Analysis and Scale Invariance Property (빈도해석과 스케일 성질을 이용한 확률강우량의 비교)

  • Jung, Young-Hun;Kim, Soo-Young;Kim, Tae-Soon;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.164-168
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    • 2008
  • 일반적으로 확률강우량은 관측지점에서 관측된 연최대 강우량자료를 바탕으로 빈도해석을 적용하여 산정한다. 그러나 국내에서는 매시각별로 관측된 자료가 대부분이기 때문에 단기간 혹은 장기간의 지속기간에 대한 확률강우량을 산정하는 것은 쉽지 않다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 매시각단위의 지속기간 강우자료를 바탕으로 다양한 지속기간에 대한 확률 강우량을 산정할 수 있는 스케일 성질을 적용하여 확률강우량을 산정하여 정확성을 판단하였다. 강우자료는 비교적 신뢰성이 높고 자료기간이 긴 기상청 지점 22개 자료를 사용하였으며, 2003년까지의 관측된 자료를 이용하여 확률강우량을 산정한 후 지점빈도해석 프로그램인 FARD2006과 비교하여 지점빈도해석의 결과 값을 참값으로 절대상대오차를 산정하여 비교하였다. 산정한 방법은 기준이 되는 확률강우량을 산정한 후 그보다 긴 지속기간에 대한 확률강우량을 산정하는 방법인 상향스케일링 (Up-scaling)과 그 보다 짧은 지속기간에 대한 확률강우량을 산정하는 방법인 하향스케일링(Down-scaling)의 두 가지 방법으로 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 두 방법 모두 1시간$\sim$24시간의 지속기간에 대한 확률강우량을 2년$\sim$500년의 재현기간에 대하여 확률강우량을 산정하였으며, 빈도해석으로 산정한 FARD2006의 결과값과 비교하여 절대상대오차를 산정하였다. 그 결과, 시간단위자료를 사용할 경우 대부분 절대상대오차가 10% 미만인 결과를 얻을 수 있었으며, 14개의 재현기간 중에서 8개 이상의 재현기간에 대해 적용이 가능한 것으로 나타났다. 지속기간 1시간 강우자료를 기준 지속기간으로 1시간 미만의 지속기간에 대한 확률강우량을 추정한 결과 10분을 제외하고는 대부분 절대상대오차가 10% 내외의 정확도를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 스케일 성질을 이용하여 미계측 강우지속기간의 확률강우량을 추정할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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A Study of New Modified Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model Development Using Direct Parameter Estimation (직접적인 매개변수 추정방법을 이용한 새로운 수정된 Neyman-Scott 구형펄스모형 개발 연구)

  • Shin, Ju-Young;Joo, Kyoung-Won;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.135-144
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    • 2011
  • Direct parameter estimation method is verified with various models based on Neyman-Scott rectangular pulse model (NSRPM). Also, newly modified NSRPM (NMSRPM) that uses normal distribution is developed. Precipitation data observed by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for 47 years is applied for parameter estimation. For model performance verification, we used statistics, wet ratio and precipitation accumulate distribution of precipitation generated. The comparison of statistics indicates that absolute relative error (ARE)s of the results from NSRPM and modified NSRPM (MNSRPM) are increasing on July, August, and September and ARE of NMNSRPM shows 10.11% that is the smallest ARE among the three models. NMNSRPM simulates the characteristics of precipitation statistics well. By comparing the wet ratio, MNSRPM shows the smallest ARE that is 16.35% and by using the graphical analysis, we found that these three models underestimate the wet ratio. The three models show about 2% of ARE of precipitation accumulate probability. Those results show that the three models simulate precipitation accumulate probability well. As the results, it is found that the parameters of NSRPM, MNSRPM and NMNSRPM are able to be estimated by the direct parameter estimation method. From the results listed above, we concluded that the direct parameter estimation is able to be applied to various models based on NSRPM. NMNSRPM shows good performance compared with developed model-NSRPM and MNSRPM and the models based on NSRPM can be developed by the direct parameter estimation method.

Positional Accuracy Analysis of Permanent GPS Sites Using Precise Point Positioning (정밀절대측위를 이용한 상시관측소 위치정확도 분석)

  • Kang, Joon-Mook;Lee, Yong-Wook;Kim, Min-Gyu;Park, Joon-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.529-536
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    • 2008
  • Researches about 3-D Positioning system using GPS were carried out many-sided by national organs, laboratories, the worlds of science. And most of researches were development of relative positioning algorithm and its applications. Relative positioning has a merit, which can eliminate error in received signals. But its error increase due to distance of baseline. GPS absolute positioning is a method that decides the position independently by the signals from the GPS satellites which are received by a receiver at a certain position. And it is necessary to correct various kinds of error(clock error, effect of ionosphere and troposphere, multi-path etc.). In this study, results of PPP(Precise Point Positioning) used Bernese GPS software was compared with notified coordinates by the NGII(National Geographic Information Institute) in order to analyze the positional accuracy of permanent GPS sites. And the results were compared with results of AUSPOS - Online GPS Processing Service for comparison with relative positioning.

Estimation of Average Low Flow Using Base Flow Index for Ungaged Basin (기저유량비를 이용한 미계측 유역의 평균 갈수량 산정)

  • Lee, Si Yoon;Kim, Chi Young;Lee, Jong so;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.415-420
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    • 2017
  • 유량자료는 연속적으로 관측하기가 쉽지 않을 뿐 아니라 모든 관측소에서 매년 적정한 유량자료를 생산하는 것 또한 매우 어려운 실정이다. 이에 따라 미계측 유역에 대한 유량 산정을 위해 많은 연구가 진행되고 있다. 영국의 "Low Flow Studies report(Institute of Hydrology, 1980)"에서는 갈수량 산정과 관련하여 기저유량비(Base Flow Index, BFI)를 사용하는 것을 추천하였다. 국내에서는 이와 관련한 적용 사례가 없기 때문에 본 연구에서는 BFI를 적용하여 미계측 유역의 갈수량을 산정하고자 하였다. 대상유역은 낙동강 권역의 22개 지점을 대상으로 실시하였으며, 기저유량비 및 평균 갈수량과 유역 및 수문인자들의 상관분석을 수행하였다. 분석을 통하여 기저유량비는 토양군 C와 지하수위를 독립변수로, 평균 갈수량은 기저유량비, 유역면적, 강수량을 독립변수로 선정하여 회귀분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과 개발한 기저유량비 지역회귀모형의 상대오차는 -26.5%(기계2)~57.2%(구영)의 범위로 분포하였고, 절대오차의 평균은 17.2%로 산정되었다. 평균 갈수량 지역회귀모형은 상대오차가 -38.4%(도천)~184.4%(길안)의 범위에서 분포하고 있으며, 절대오차의 평균은 47.3%이다. 그러나 소토, 기계2, 길안 지점을 제외하면 절대오차는 30.6%이다. 상대오차는 다소 부정적이지만 기존에 개발된 지역회귀모형으로 평균 갈수량을 산정한 결과와 비교하면 상대적으로 양호한 것으로 판단된다. 사용한 자료의 기간이 6년으로 통계적인 결과로 보기에는 다소 미흡한 측면이 있지만, 유역인자로서 BFI가 미계측 유역의 갈수량 특성을 설명할 수 있는 우수한 인자라고 판단하였다.

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Geodetic Point Positioning using the GPS Csrrier Phase (GPS 반송파 위상을 이용한 측지학적인 절대위치 결정)

  • 강준묵;정용식;최종현
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.181-188
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    • 1996
  • Geodetic Satellite Positioning Techniques (NNSS, Transit, Doppler, VLBI, SLR etc.) still have much difficulty in surveying and necessity of point positions is being amplified in korea. Therefore some research institutes have being investigated point positioning using the GPS. In this study, 1 arranged the theory deal with point positioning using GPS carrier beat phase of dual frequency and estimated corrections of errors that be included in GPS observable. Also, 1 determined point position by the differencing scheme of GPS carrier phase, and analyzed the accuracy of point position. 1 suggested potentiality of geodetic point positioning using GPS carrier phase by comparing result of relative positioning with result of point positioning and analyzing result of network adjustment fixed any point position.

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A Precise Relative Positioning Method Based on Time-Differenced Carrier Phase Measurements from Low-Cost GNSS Receiver (저비용 GNSS 수신기를 이용한 반송파 위상 시각간 차분 측정치 기반의 정밀 상대위치 결정 기법)

  • Park, Kwi-Woo;Lee, DongSun;Park, Chansik
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.40 no.9
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    • pp.1846-1855
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, a precise relative positioning with TD(time differenced) carrier phase measurements from a low-cost GNSS(Global Navigation Satellite System) receiver is proposed and analysed. The proposed method is using carrier phase measurement from a single GNSS receiver that reference receiver is not required and stand alone positioning is possible. TD operation removes the troublesome integer ambiguity resolution problem, and if the time interval is short, other error, such as, ionospheric, tropospheric delay and ephemeris error are effectively eliminated. The error analysis of the proposed method shows that a precise and positioning with carrier phase is possible. The implemented system is evaluated using a real car experiments. The results show that the horizontal positioning error was less than 3m during 10 minutes experiments, which is 4 times more precise than the results of normal code based absolute positioning.

Integrated Position Estimation Using the Aerial Image Sequence (항공영상을 이용한 통합된 위치 추정)

  • Sim, Dong-Gyu;Park, Rae-Hong;Kim, Rin-Chul;Lee, Sang-Uk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics S
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    • v.36S no.12
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    • pp.76-84
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    • 1999
  • This paper presents an integrated method for aircraft position estimation using sequential aerial images. The proposed integrated system for position estimation is composed of two parts: relative position estimation and absolute position estimation. Relative position estimation recursively computes the current position of an aircraft by accumulating relative displacement estimates extracted from two successive aerial images. Simple accumulation of parameter values decreases reliability of the extracted parameter estimates as an aircraft goes on navigating, resulting in large position error. Therefore absolute position estimation is required to compensate for the position error generated in relative position estimation. Absolute position estimation algorithms by image matching or digital elevation model (DEM) matching are presented. In image matching, a robust oriented Hausdorff measure (ROHM) is employed whereas in DEM matching an algorithm using multiple image pairs is used. Computer simulation with four real aerial image sequences shows the effectiveness of the proposed integrated position estimation algorithm.

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The Application Assessment of Future Design Rainfall Estimation Method Using Scale Properties (스케일 특성을 이용한 미래 확률강우량 산정기법의 적용성 평가)

  • Lee, Moon-Hwan;Shin, Sang-Hoon;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.253-262
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    • 2012
  • The objectives of this study are to suggest the method for estimation of sub-daily extreme rainfall under climate change using scale properties and to assess the application in the 6 major weather stations including Seoul site. First, the proposed method was assessed by past observations. As the results, absolute relative errors of probability rainfall quantiles estimated by frequency analysis and scale property method show approximately 10% in the all durations. And as the result of application climate scenario, absolute relative errors of rainfall quantiles between two method show approximately 20%. From the results, the scale property method on this study will be derive as the reliable results.

An Application of Sampling to Determine a Proper Rate of Probe Vehicles for Macroscopic Traffic Flow Monitoring Indices (거시교통류 모니터링 지표산출을 위한 적정 프로브차량 비율 결정에 관한 연구)

  • Shim, Jung-Suk;Heo, Hyun-Moo;Eom, Ki-Jong;Lee, Chung-Won;Ahn, Su-Han
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we consider three macroscopic traffic flow monitoring indices, Travel Time Index(TTI), Acceleration Noise(AN) and Two Fluid(TF) and investigate how to determine a proper rate of probe cars for producing reliable values of these indices. For the analysis, we use classical sampling theories and provide numbers of probe rates using simulation data.