• Title/Summary/Keyword: 전염병 확산 시뮬레이션

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Patch Model-Based Epidemic Simulation System (패치 모델 기반의 전염병 시뮬레이션 시스템)

  • Choi, Hoon;Park, Dong-In
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2010.11a
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    • pp.1465-1468
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    • 2010
  • 지난 몇 년 동안 전염병 확산을 분석하기 위해 InfluSim 을 기반으로 한 시뮬레이션 모델에 대한 연구가 진행되어 왔다. InfluSim 은 국내 각 지역의 인구 통계학적 특성과 인구 이동 등을 고려하지 않는 한계점이 있다. 이러한 이유로 InfluSim 에 의한 시뮬레이션 결과로부터 전염병 확산에 대한 방역 대책을 마련하는 것은 부적절한 측면이 있다. 이러한 문제점을 극복하기 위해, 우리는 패치 모델을 개발하였다. 패치 모델은 전국을 16 개 권역으로 나누어 각 지역의 인구 통계학적인 특성을 고려하고, 각 지역 간의 인구 이동을 고려한다. 패치 모델은 InfluSim 모델을 기반으로 하고, 16 개 지역의 인구 통계학적 특성 및 지역 간의 인구 이동량을 네트워크 모델로 보완하였다. 본 논문은 패치 모델 기반의 시뮬레이션 시스템에 대해 서술한다.

Foot-and-mouth disease spread simulation using agent-based spatial model (행위자 기반 공간 모델을 이용한 구제역 확산 시뮬레이션)

  • Ariuntsetseg, Enkhbaatar;Yom, Jae-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.209-219
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    • 2013
  • Epidemiological models on disease spread attempt to simulate disease transmission and associated control processes and such models contribute to greater understanding of disease spatial diffusion through of individual's contacts. The objective of this study is to develop an agent-based modeling(ABM) approach that integrates geographic information systems(GIS) to simulate the spread of FMD in spatial environment. This model considered three elements: population, time and space, and assumed that the disease would be transmitted between farms via vehicle along the roads. The model is implemented using FMD outbreak data in Andong city of South Korea in 2010 as a case study. In the model, FMD is described with the mathematical model of transmission probability, the distance of the two individuals, latent period, and other parameters. The results show that the GIS-agent based model designed for this study can be easily customized to study the spread dynamics of FMD by adjusting the disease parameters. In addition, the proposed model is used to measure the effectiveness of different control strategies to intervene the FMD spread.

A Study on the Agent Based Infection Prediction Model Using Space Big Data -focusing on MERS-CoV incident in Seoul- (공간 빅데이터를 활용한 행위자 기반 전염병 확산 예측 모형 구축에 관한 연구 -서울특별시 메르스 사태를 중심으로-)

  • JEON, Sang-Eun;SHIN, Dong-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.94-106
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    • 2018
  • The epidemiological model is useful for creating simulation and associated preventive measures for disease spread, and provides a detailed understanding of the spread of disease space through contact with individuals. In this study, propose an agent-based spatial model(ABM) integrated with spatial big data to simulate the spread of MERS-CoV infections in real time as a result of the interaction between individuals in space. The model described direct contact between individuals and hospitals, taking into account three factors : population, time, and space. The dynamic relationship of the population was based on the MERS-CoV case in Seoul Metropolitan Government in 2015. The model was used to predict the occurrence of MERS, compare the actual spread of MERS with the results of this model by time series, and verify the validity of the model by applying various scenarios. Testing various preventive measures using the measures proposed to select a quarantine strategy in the event of MERS-CoV outbreaks is expected to play an important role in controlling the spread of MERS-CoV.

A Simulation Output Analysis Environment by utilizing Elastic Stack (Elastic Stack을 이용한 시뮬레이션 분석 환경 구성)

  • Hwang Bo, Seong Woo;Lee, Kang Sun;Kwon, Yong Jun
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we propose a simulation output analysis environment using Elastic Stack technology in order to reduce the complexity of the simulation analysis process. The proposed simulation output analysis environment automatically transfers simulation outputs to a centralized analysis server from a set of simulation execution resources, physically separated over a network, manages the collected simulation outputs in a fashion that further analysis tasks can be easily performed, and provides a connection to analysis and visualization services of Kibana in Elastic Stack. The proposed analysis environment provides scalability where a set of computation resources can be added on demand. We demonstrate how the proposed simulation output analysis environment can perform the simulation output analysis effectively with an example of spreading epidemic diseases, such as influenza and flu.

System Dynamics Approach to Epidemic Compartment Model: Translating SEIR Model for MERS Transmission in South Korea (전염병 구획 모형에 대한 시스템다이내믹스 접근법: 국내 MERS 전염 SEIR 모형의 해석 및 변환)

  • Jung, Jae Un
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.259-265
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    • 2018
  • Compartment models, a type of mathematical model, have been widely applied to characterize the changes in a dynamic system with sequential events or processes, such as the spread of an epidemic disease. A compartment model comprises compartments, and the relations between compartments are depicted as boxes and arrows. This principle is similar to that of the system dynamics (SD) approach to constructing a simulation model with stocks and flows. In addition, both models are structured using differential equations. With this mutual and translatable principle, this study, in terms of SD, translates a reference SEIR model, which was developed in a recent study to characterize the transmission of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in South Korea. Compared to the replicated result of the reference SEIR model (Model 1), the translated SEIR model (Model 2) demonstrates the same simulation result (error=0). The results of this study provide insight into the application of SD relative to constructing an epidemic compartment model using schematization and differential equations. The translated SD artifact can be used as a reference model for other epidemic diseases.

Implementation of integrated monitoring system for trace and path prediction of infectious disease (전염병의 경로 추적 및 예측을 위한 통합 정보 시스템 구현)

  • Kim, Eungyeong;Lee, Seok;Byun, Young Tae;Lee, Hyuk-Jae;Lee, Taikjin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2013
  • The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.

Hierarchical Agent Synthesis Framework using Discrete Event System Specification and System Entity Structure (이산사건시스템 명세와 체계 요소 구조를 활용한 계층적 에이전트 합성 프레임워크)

  • Choi, Changbeom
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2019
  • An agent-based simulation is a popular simulation tool to solve various problems, such as stock market, population prediction, disease prediction, and development of a traffic system. As the agents are developed and researched in different application fields, the agent has a rigid structure and may not acceptable in different domains. As a result, it is a challenging problem to define a structure for an agent structure to reflect the researcher's simulation objective. This research proposes an extendable form for an agent and its modeling environment. In order to propose a standard structure, this study adopts system entity structure and discrete event system specification formalism. Also, this research introduces the SESManager which supports the proposed specification method. The proposed environment can hierarchically define the agent structure and synthesize the agent so that it can perform the agent simulation according to the user's simulation purpose.

An Explorator Spatial Analysis of Shigellosis (세균성 이질의 탐색적 공간분석)

  • 박기호
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.473-491
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    • 1999
  • 세균성 이질은 국내 제1종 법정 전염병으로 분류되어 관리되고 있는 질환으로서 1998년 이후 그 발병 사례가 급속히 증가하고 있다. 본 연구는 1999년 3월 부산시 사상구에서 집단 발병한 세균성 이질을 대상으로 하여, 각 환자들의 발병 시점과 장소의 분포패턴에 대한 지리학적 고찰을 목적으로 한다. 환자분포의 특징적 공간패턴과 그들의 시계열적 확산 양상 등을 탐색하기 위한 방법론은 보건지리학과 지도학 및 공간통계학에 기반을 둔 공간분석기법을 중심으로 설정하였다. 분석자료는 해당 지역의 수치지형도, 지적도, 인구 센서스 자료를 포함한 GIS 데이터베이스로 구축되었다. 인구분포를 감안한 밀도구분도를 바탕으로 개별환자의 위치자료와 동 단위로 집계된 자료를 자료의 형태에 따라 분석기법을 달리하였으며, 환자 발생 밀도, 상대적 위험지수 등을 지도화하여 역학자료의 시각적 통계적 분석을 수행하였다. 환자분포의 공간적 중심위치와 분산의 변화 등 기술적 통계분석과 함께 제1차 공간속성을 커널추정법으로 찾아보았다. 이와 더불어 ‘공간적 의존성’과 관련된 제2차 공간속성은 K-함수와 시뮬레이션을 통해 분석하여 군집성 등이 통계적으로 확인되었다. 본 연구를 통해 역학조사시 GIS의 활용사례가 제시되었으며, 모집단 인구를 고려한 확률지도 작성 기법과 다양한 데이터 가시화 방법, 그리고 시계열별 발생 환자들의 지리적 변이를 분석 하는데 따르는 문제들이 논의되었다.

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A study on the spread of the foot-and-mouth disease in Korea in 2010/2011 (2010/2011년도 한국 발생 구제역 확산에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Jihyun;Oh, Changhyuck
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2014
  • Foot-and-mouth Disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and fatal viral livestock disease that affects cloven-hoofed animals domestic and wild and the FMD outbreak in Korea in 2010/2011 was a disastrous incident for the country and the economy. Thus, efforts at the national level are put to prevent foot-and-mouth disease and to reduce the damage in the case of outbreak. As one of these efforts, it is useful to study the spread of the disease by using probabilistic model. In fact, after the FMD epidemic in the UK occurred in 2001, many studies have been carried on the spread of the disease using a variety of stochastic models as an effort to prepare future outbreak of FMD. However, for the FMD outbreak in Korea occurred in 2010/2011, there are few study by utilizing probabilistic model. This paper assumes a stochastic spatial-temporal susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic model for the 2010/2011 FMD outbreak to understand spread of the disease. Since data on infections of FMD disease during 2010/2011 outbreak of Aniaml and Plant Quarantine Agency and on the livestock farms from the nationwide census in 2011 of Statistics Korea do not have detail informations on address or missing values, we generate detail information on address by randomly allocating farms within corresponding Si/Gun area. The kernel function is estimated using the infection data and by using simulations, the susceptibility and transmission of the spatial-temporal stochastic SIR models are determined.

Generating GAN-based Virtual data to Prevent the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza(HPAI) (고위험성 조류인플루엔자(HPAI) 확산 방지를 위한 GAN 기반 가상 데이터 생성)

  • Choi, Dae-Woo;Han, Ye-Ji;Song, Yu-Han;Kang, Tae-Hun;Lee, Won-Been
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted with the support of the Information and Communication Technology Promotion Center, funded by the government (Ministry of Science and ICT) in 2019. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is an acute infectious disease of birds caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza virus infection, causing serious damage to poultry such as chickens and ducks. High pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is caused by focusing on winter rather than year-round, and sometimes does not occur at all during a certain period of time. Due to these characteristics of HPAI, there is a problem that does not accumulate enough actual data. In this paper study, GAN network was utilized to generate actual similar data containing missing values and the process is introduced. The results of this study can be used to measure risk by generating realistic simulation data for certain times when HPAI did not occur.