• Proceedings of the Population Association of Korea Conference
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• 2006.12a
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• pp.193-230
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• 2006

본 논문은 국가별 추계인구와 미래 9개년 인구관련 설명변수들의 추정값을 통하여 적정인구 모형을 구형하고 한국의 적정인구를 추정하는데 목적이 있다. 후생을 고려한 생산함수 확장모형, 세계 176개국의 표본자료 그리고 다중회귀분석을 이용하여 $2000{\sim}2300$년 한국의 적정인구를 추정하고 그 추세곡선을 나타내는 것이다. 모형의 종속변수는 UN에 의한 세계각국의 추계인구이고, 설명변수는 9개 변수 즉 PPP GDP, 인접지역 경제통합율, 교육수준, 영어구사비율, 국토유효면적, 에너지량, 기온, 수자원량, 무역거리이다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. $2000{\sim}2300$년 한국의 적정인구는 $4,350{\sim}4,950$만명으로 추정되며, 2000년${\sim}$2050년은 $4,700{\sim}5,010$만명, 2050년${\sim}2100$년은 $4,770{\sim}4,400$만명이 된다. 2125년 최저점 4,350만명을 통과한 후 점진적으로 2300년의 4,870만명으로 접근해 갈 것으로 추정된다. 연구결과의 시사점은 네 가지이다. 첫째 한국의 적정인구가 2125년을 기준으로 이전은 감소 이후는 증가 추세일 것이므로 정책결정시 적정한 목표인구를 설정해야 한다는 점이다. 둘째 현 추세로 진행되면 2050년 이후 적정인구가 추계인구보다 $500{\sim}600$만명 더 많아진다는 점이다. 셋째 2125년 이전의 적정인구는 좁게 $4,770{\sim}4,545$만명으로서, 출산율 향상을 통한 적정인구의 유지 노력이 필요하다는 점이다. 넷째 적정인구 추세의 기복은 출산기피로 인한 인구감소 때문으로 출산지원과 입양 및 이민 유입의 정책에 따라 변화될 수 있다는 점이다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.209-239
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• 2006

본 연구는 총부양비를 최소화하는 적정인구성장률을 인구학적 부양비와 경제적 부양비로 나누어 계산하구 그것이 무엇을 의미하가를 연구하는 것이 목적이다. 이 연구를 위하여 연구모형을 제시하고, 합계출산율과 적정인구성장률의 관계를 명시하며, 그것이 궁극적으로 적정인구 규모에 어떤 의미를 갖는가를 탐색한다. 인구학적 부양비를 최소화하는 인구성장률은 $-0.03%{\sim}0.15%$의 범위에 있으며, 그것은 합계 출산율로는 $2.1{\sim}2.2$명에 해당한다. 경제적 부양비를 최소화하는 인구성장률은 유년층과 노년층의 상대적 개인 소비비중에 따라 인구성장률과 그것이 함의하는 합계출산율은 달라진다. 예컨대, $u_1:u_3=2:1$일 때 적정인구성장률은 $-1.17{\sim}-0.93%$, 그것이 함의하는 합계출산율은 $1.5{\sim}1.6$명이다. 한편 유년층 대비 노년층의 상대적 소비비중이 증가하는 경우에는 적정인구성장율이 높아져야 한다. 예컨대 $u_1:u_2=1:1.2$일 때 적정인구성장률은 $0.42{\sim}0.45%$이고, 그것이 함의하는 합계출산율은 $2.3{\sim}2.4$명이다. 본 연구에서 적정인구추계를 위한 기초 여론조사에 따라 진행된 상대적 소비비중을 계산한 결과에 따르면, 유년층과 노년층의 상대적 개인 소비비중은 $u_1:u_2=1.25:1$이며, 이에 따른 현재의 상황에서 한국의 적정출산율은 $1.9{\sim}2.0$명 수준으로, 이에 해당하는 적정인구성장률은 대략 약간의 네거티브 성장을 하는 경우라고 할 수 있을 것이다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.269-292
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• 2006

The current environmental problem is global, and threatens the very existence of human beings. Many factors have been argued as the causes of environmental problem. The examples include anthroponcentric human perspective on nature, increase in the knowledge on nature, development of technology, economic growth and unequal distribution, and population increase, etc. The scholars who argues population increase have focused on over-population. However, the estimation of optimum population size has not been attempted in terms of environmental carrying capacity. In such a context, this paper aims at estimating optimum population size in South Korea in terms of environmental carrying capacity. The estimation was done from two approaches. One was based on the state of environment, the other was based on 'the desirable state of environment' Koreans expect. The former is termed an objective approach, while the latter is termed an approach based on social consensus. About 47.5 millions were estimated from the former approach, and 48.5 millions from the latter approach. However, optimum population size increase by 50.5 millions if government increase environmental budget to 2.00% among total budget. As such, different optimum population size is estimated according to the values of variables. The most significant variable determining optimum population size is environmental budget, and followed by supply of clean energy. The estimated optimum population size was based on the time-series data from 1993 to 2002. Therefore, time-series data collected from other years will result in different estimation model, and then different optimum population size will be estimated.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.241-268
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• 2006

This study aim to examine the optimum population in Korea, which has the lowest fertility rate in the world. This study has significance because this rapid decline in the fertility rate is expected to bring the decrease of the population and unbalance in the population composition in Korea. From the social welfare perspective, the optimum population is guided by maximization of the social welfare level per person or the social welfare level in a society. The optimum population can be defined as follows: The proportion of older adults 65 and over is 15-17%, the proportion of work force is 64-69%, the index of aging is 72-104. Within the current population and population composition, the optimum population is estimated as 4.85-4.95 million. These findings imply that we need to remove causes of low fertility rate and prepare for policies encouraging immigration of labor force from foreign countries. In addition, policies and programs where children can be grown up in good environments and women and older adults can participate in labor force should be established.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.1-32
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• 2005

The optimum population of a society or country can be defined as 'the population growth path that maximizes the welfare level of the society over the whole generations of both the present and the future, under the paths allowed by its endowments of production factors such as technology, capital and labor'. Thus, the optimum size or growth rate of population depends on: (i) the social welfare function, (ii) the production function, and (iii)demographic economic interrelationship which defines how the national income is disposed into consumption(birth and education of children included) and savings on the one hand and how the demographic and economic change induced thereby, in turn, affect production capacities on the other. The optimum population growth path can, then, be derived in the process of dynamic optimization of (i) under the constraints of (ii) and (iii), which will give us the optimum population growth rate defined as a function of parameters thereof. This paper estimates the optimum population growth rate of Korea by: specifying (i), (ii), and (iii) based on the recent development of economic theories, solving the dynamic optimization problem and inserting empirical estimates in Korea as the parametric values. The result shows that the optimum path of population growth in Korea is around TFR=1.81, which is affected most sensitively, in terms of the size of the partial elasticity around the optimum path, by the cost of children, share of capital income, consumption rate, time preference, population elasticity of utility function, etc. According to a survey implemented as a follow up study, there are quite a significant variations in the perceived cost of children, time preference rate, population elasticity of utility across different socio-economic classes in Korea, which implied that, compared to their counterparts, older generation and more highly educated classes prefer higher growth path for the population of Korea.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.487-497
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• 2010

This paper estimates theoretically optimal sizes of urban population for major metropolitan areas using an urban economy system with utility maximizing household, profit maximizing producer and government providing public goods. This finds that the optimal size of urban population is determined by technological levels and public services. The population sizes of Seoul, Busan, Daegu and Incheon are higher than their optimal levels, while Gwangju, Daejeon and Ulsan need to increase the population for production efficiency.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.171-201
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• 2004

Modern sciences in the West are deeply rooted in the Greek and Roman cultural heritage. Consequently, the academic achievements accomplished by the scholars of the Arabs including Persian world, the profound thoughts developed in the Indian subcontinent, and the excellent works made by the East Asian scholars have mostly been neglected in the past. This paper attempts to compare the thoughts and theories on population developed by the Western scholars with those of East Asian scolars, in chronological order, ancient, mediaeval, and modern period before Malthus. The thesis that excessive population growth may reduce output per worker, depress levels of living for the masses and engender strife is of great antiquity. In fact, overpopulation in East Asia, especially in China, goes back to very ancient times, most Confucian scholars maintained the notion of a numerical balance between population and environment. They also looked for means to check the increase in numbers. The foundations of a theory of optimum population level, fully developed in the twentieth century, can be found in their writings. Although early population thoughts in China had not advanced far in the analysis of the significance of population size and growth, it had taken only a few steps forward. At some times and to some observers, populousness appeared desirable; at other times and to other observers, it seemed all too evident that the number of people could become too great. These viewpoints foreshowed some of the later developments. The early population literatures reviewed here seem to consist of a number of quite isolated contributions. In fact, however, there may have been a greater continuity of thought than now appears, for many of the contributions may have been lost and there are many gaps in the record. An intensive review on comparing two works, those of Malthus' and Hong, Liang-chi's, are presented in this paper. Only five years before Malthus published his famous work, An Essay on the Principle of Population, Hong published his theories on population. Some of them, Hong insisted, are very similar to the Malthusian concepts of geometrical increase, natural and artificial checks of population. Despite the excellent works in the ancient period, this paper concludes with an investigation of the reasons why modem achievements in scientific areas in the East Asia have been far behind that of the West.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.61-67
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• 2021

In this study, the adequacy of water supply critical factors of urban design was examined. The supply of water supply is analyzed in various ways as the design progresses. Starting with basic data collection and analysis a supply and demand plan is established to calculate the amount of water supply and in this study the adequacy of population estimation and original unit calculation was evaluated. Among the second new cities where actual data can be secured Wirye New Town was selected as the study target area. Related data were analyzed to confirm the future population and the original unit and compared with the measured data. As of September 2020, the population of Wirye New Town was 93,977, showing the appropriateness of about 84% with a planned population of 110,990 confirming that the planned population and the actual population were almost similar. In the case of the original unit, it was calculated as 314 liters per person in Seoul and 320 liters per person in Seongnam at the time of design. As a result, it was found that there was some agreement in the population estimation while examining the supply in the planned city. In the case of Korea, there is a lot of interest in revitalizing the existing city, away from continuous development. Therefore it is judged that there is a need for further research on the adequacy of supply for the old city center.

• Journal of Families and Better Life
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.106-117
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• 1994

본연구는 부부의 경제생활 만족도를 파악하기 위하여 가정의 사회인구학적 변인과 가정의 경제환경에 대한 지각정된 주관적 경제수준 평가 및 부부가 참여하는 가계관리 행동 변인들이 부부의 가정의 경제생활 만족도에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 검증하여 비교 분석 하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 조사대상자는 서울시 거주의 1자녀 이상을 둔 부부로서 500쌍의 설문지 중 367쌍이 본 연구자료로 사용되었다. 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과같다. 남편의 경 제생활 만족도에 여향을 미치는 변인은 소득 적정감 자원 지각도, 상대적 비교감, 자원기여 평가도 경제소준 향상감, 가계관리 참여도, 월평균 가계속득이었으며 부인의 경우에는 소득 적정감 상대적 비교감 자원기여 평가도 자가주택 소유여부 남편의 직업으로 나타났다 남편 과 부인 모두의 경제생활 만족도에 대한 예측력이 가장 큰 변인은 소득 적정감으로 나타났 다 부부의 경제생활 만족도는 주관적 경제수준 평가의 영향력이 사회인구학적 변인의 영향 력보다 상대적으로 큰 것으로 나타났다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.1-31
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• 2007

Korea, China and Japan have been undergoing economic development, demographic transition and population aging, in a speed unparalleled in world history. This paper examines, for each of these countries, on (i) the trend and prospect of the effective dependency burden (EDB) in terms of stable population and (ii) the optimum fertility path which will lead to a stable population with the minimum level of EDB under the trend and prospect of decreasing age specific mortality rates. It then evaluates (iii) the transitory EDB costs of pro-natal policies during the adjustment process of stabilization and (iv) the effectiveness of other supplementary policies which influence EDB parameters.