• Title/Summary/Keyword: 재해예측

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Storm Surge Height on Busan and Gyeongnam coastal region by an Attack of Super-Typhoon (슈퍼태풍 내습 시.부산 경남 연안역의 폭풍해일고)

  • Hur, Dong-Soo;Lee, Hyeon-Woo;Lee, Woo-Dong;Bae, Ki-Sung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.128-136
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    • 2008
  • Recently, the unusual climate change is happening from the global warming in the whole world, the Korean peninsula is also no exception. It is predicted by many researchers that, in the near future, the Super-Typhoon of overwhelming power will occur due to rising temperatures on the sea surface around the Korean peninsula. In this study, numerical simulation has been performed with the Super-Typhoons which combined route of Typhoon Maemi with typhoon conditons of Hurricane Katrina (New Oleans in U.S.A, 2005), Typhoon Durian (philippine, 2006) and Typhoon Vera (Ise Bay in Japan, 1959) at Busan and Gyeongnam coastal area which has been badly damaged due to storm surge every year. From the numerical results, it is revealed that the storm surge heights of the Super-Typhoons are higher than that of Maemi, specially the storm surge height in the case of Katrina is about 4 times larger. So, it can be pointed out that the construction of countermeasures against disasters are very important in order to prepare against an attack of the Super-Typhoons.

A Study on Generating a Coastal Flood Hazard Map Using GIS (GIS를 활용한 연안침수지도 제작에 관한 연구)

  • Won, Dea-Hee;Kim, Kye-Hyun;Park, Tae-Og;Choi, Hyun-Woo;Kwak, Tae-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.12 no.1 s.28
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2004
  • Since there are a lot of changes in climate on domestic and natural disasters owing to the disturbance-development of the land, damages of properties and human life frequently occur due to the coastal floodings. Accordingly, it is necessary to find the area where the danger of flooding coasts is relatively high and to inform resident the characteristics of the area As a part of preventive land management to minimize the flooding damages of the coastal area, this study suggested the generation of the coastal flood hazard map that provides detailed information such as refuge path, a place of refuge, and the location of medical supplies, food, and main rescue equipment, etc. This study selected the southern region of Daebu-do as an exemplary area, conducted a document study to establish GIS data, secured pre-structured data, and suggested the method of establishing GIS data fit to the study area. In particular, it emphasized the efficient construction of the geographical spatial data that were accurate, economic, objective, and realistic in supporting the modeling to predict the flooding zone. The specific type of established database was divided into flooding risk area, flooding warning area, and flooding-volume area. The prototype of coastal flood hazard map can be widely used for efficient disaster management. Furthermore, it is considered that the map could be applied for arousing residents' attentions to the flooding, prior education, and local governments' management actions against the danger of flooding.

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Development of interception capacity equations according to grate inlet types (빗물받이 형상에 따른 차집량 산정식 개발)

  • Choi, Sung Yeul;Eom, Kwangho;Choi, Seungyong;Cho, Jaewoong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.10
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    • pp.851-861
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    • 2016
  • Recently, natural disasters, which are hard to predict and prevent, are rapidly increasing due to climate change worldwide. Particularly the damage scale of urban areas is increasing because of local torrential rainfall. In urban areas, the rain water cannot flow to pipes well due to the high percentage of impervious areas by the indiscriminate development. As a result, the inundation damage is getting higher in urban areas. So we need to characterize the interception of the grate inlets to ensure good drainage in impervious areas. But Korean installation criteria of grate inlets does not reflect road and drainage sector characteristics so the grate inlets do not function properly in many areas. In this study, we suggest the interception capacity equations about grate inlets through hydraulic experiments in various conditions. Therefore, the interception capacity changes are analyzed according to bearing bar slopes of grate inlets, grate inlet sizes and shapes and connecting pipe numbers. Though this, we developed the interception capacity equations about domestic grate inlets.

Spatial Integration of Multiple Data Sets regarding Geological Lineaments using Fuzzy Set Operation (퍼지집합연산을 통한 다중 지질학적 선구조 관련자료의 공간통합)

  • 이기원;지광훈
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.49-60
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    • 1995
  • Features of geological lineaments generally play an important role at the data interpretation concerned geological processes, mineral exploration or natural hazard risk estimation. However, there are intrinsically discordances between lineaments-related features extracted from surficial geological syrvey and those from satellite imagery;nevertheless, any data set contained those information should not be considred as less meaningful within their own task. For the purpose of effective utilization task of extracted lineaments, the mathematical scheme, based on fuzzy set theory, for practical integration of various types of rasterized data sets is studied. As a real application, the geological map named Homyeong sheet(1:50,000) and the Landset TM imageries covering same area were used, and then lineaments-related data sets such as lineaments on the geological map, lineaments extracted from a false-color image composite satellite, and major drainage pattern were utilized. For data fusion process, fuzzy membership functions of pixel values in each data set were experimentally assigned by percentile, and then fuzzy algebraic sum operator was tested. As a result, integrated lineaments by this well-known operator are regarded as newly-generated reasonable ones. Conclusively, it was thought that the implementation within available GISs, or the stand-alone module for general applications of this simple scheme can be utilized as an effective scheme can be utilized as an effective scheme for further studies for spatial integration task for providing decision-supporting information, or as a kind of spatial reasoning scheme.

Revolutionary Evolution on the Hydrological Climatology using 4-dimensional Rain Indexes (4차원 강수지수를 이용한 강수기후연구의 혁명적 진화)

  • BYUN, Hi Ryong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.648-648
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    • 2015
  • 이 연구는 수자원 환경을 전반적으로 객관화, 계량화하는 새로운 방법이 성공적임을 소개한다. 기존의 계량법이 일강수량, 월 강수량, 년 강수량 등등, 단순한 수학적 합계에 치중한 결과 가중 중요한 강수의 시간 분포를 간과하였다. 이 단점을 해결하여, 1) 구체적으로 매 시간, 매일 남아 있다고 추정되는 물의 양 만을 합산하는 방법을 택했다. 시간적 감소함수를 이용하여, 강수 후 유출과 증발 등으로 사라지는 물의 양을 고려한 것이다. 2) 합산기간을 객관화하였다. 기본 합산 기간을 365일로 하고, 물 부족 또는 물 과잉이 지속될 경우는 지속되는 기간만큼, 합산기간을 늘이는 방법을 택했다. 따라서 다른 지수들이 임의로 3개월 또는 12개월 등등으로 기간을 결정하는 단점을 해결했다. 이렇게 계산되는 4차원 강수지수(4-Dimensional Rain Index, 4RI)는 1) 일별유효강수지수 (AWRI), 2) 일별가뭄지수(EDI), 3) 일별 홍수지수(FI), 4) 시간별 장기 물지수(LWI), 5) 시간별 단기 물지수(SWI) 등 5개가 기본지수이다. AWRI는 매일 남아 있는 물의 양이다. 이로 인해, 전 지구의 수자원과 재해위험의 시공간적 분포의 정량화 분석이 정밀해졌다. 지구상에서 물 집중이 가장 강한 곳은 캄보디아 내의 한 지점이며 시기는 7월 말이고, 가장 약한 곳은 사하라 사막의 한 지역임이 확인되었다. 또 한국에서 발생하는 갈수기와 풍수기가 정의되었고, 이들의 각 지역별 특성과 차이가 정량적으로 드러났다. 시간적 분포 또한 명확하게 드러나, 각종 저수지의 물 관리나 농?임산물의 생산관리에 획기적 전환점이 마련되었다. 각 국가별로, 각 지역별로 이런 분석은 향후도 무수히 시도되어야 할 것이다. EDI는 매일의 AWRI를 그 날짜의 평균치와 비교한 값이다. 장기가뭄 및 단기가뭄의 강도를 모두 가장 정밀하게 표현한다. FI는 일별로 홍수, 산사태, 침수, 토사 (이하 홍수 등이라 칭함)의 위험을, LWI는 장기 누적된 강수량에 의한 돌발적 홍수 등의 위험을, SWI는 단기 누적된 강수량에 의한 돌발적 홍수 등의 위험을 잘 반영한다. 이들은 모두 시간적으로 산발적인 호우에 의한 홍수 등의 위험을 한 개의 지수로 표현해 주는 장점이 있다. 강수 후 홍수가 발생하기 까지는 시간차이가 있기 때문에, 특히 호우 경보에는 SWI가, 홍수 경보에는 LWI가 아주 효과적이다. 결론적으로 5개의 4차원 강수지수는 물환경의 시공간적 분포진단과 예측, 그리고 조기경보에 혁명적 진화를 초래함이 확인되었다. 따라서 추후 모든 강수기후와 연관된 연구는 연강수량 등의 단순 합산보다, 4차원 강수지수를 먼저 사용하는 것이 바람직 할 것임이 제안되었다.

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Water supply shortage cost estimation for drought impact assessmen (가뭄 영향평가를 위한 생·공용수 공급지장비용 추정기법)

  • Lee, Jeong Ju;Shin, Hyun Sun;Kim, Mihyun;Chun, Gun Il
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.55-55
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    • 2017
  • 가뭄은 국민생활 및 경제 등에 막대한 손실을 초래하며, 지역사회 공동체나 사회기능에 심각한 영향을 끼칠 수 있는 재해이다. 가뭄피해 최소화를 위해서는 단기대응, 복구지원 등의 사후대책에서 사전대비 및 예방으로의 정책 전환이 필요하며, 이러한 정책 수립을 뒷받침하기 위해서는 가뭄에 따른 정량적인 피해영향 평가가 우선적으로 필요하다. 하지만 가뭄 피해의 범위 및 형태는 워낙 광범위하기 때문에, 피해추정을 위한 잣대라 할 수 있는 영향평가 기법조차 제대로 정립되지 못하고 있는 실정이다. 국내에서는 분야별(기상, 농업, 수문)로 지수화 된 지표를 이용한 가뭄 평가가 주로 수행되고 있으며, 경제적 영향평가는 방법론에 대한 시범 연구 수준이다. 가뭄기록조사 등 과거 가뭄피해 자료에서도 피해액의 금액환산이 되지 않은 사례가 대부분이며 급수차지원, 관정개발 등 사후복구비 위주의 일부 자료만이 피해금액으로 제시되어 있을 뿐이다. 댐, 저수지 등에 의한 용수공급 안정성으로 인해, 기상학적인 가뭄이 즉시 물부족으로 인한 피해로 이어지지는 않지만, 물부족이 발생하거나 부족량이 예측되는 상황에서 피해규모를 시스템적으로 추정 및 비교할 수 있는 기법 개발의 필요성에 의해 잠재피해액 개념의 공급지장비용 추정기법을 개발하였다. 공급지장비용 또는 편익 도출을 위한 이론적 배경으로, 경제적 가치 또는 파급효과를 분석하기 위한 방법은 경제학적 접근법과 비경제학적 접근법으로 구분된다. 경제학적 접근법에서 사용하는 진술선호 기법의 경우 전국을 대상으로 설문 등의 과정을 거쳐 지불의사액을 도출하는 과정이 필요하기 때문에 많은 조사비용이 소요된다. 비경제학적 또는 공학적 접근법으로 분류되는 대체비용법은 이론적 배경이 약하고 대체항목의 선택에 주의가 필요하다는 단점이 있으나, 물가자료, 산업통계, 수자원통계 등 기초자료의 주기적 업데이트가 유리하며, 정신적 피해를 제외할 경우 피해비용 추정결과의 편차가 진술선호기법 보다는 작은 장점이 있다. 본 연구에서는 피해비용의 과대추정에 유의하여 대체비용법에 기반한 일본 후생노동성의 감 단수피해추정기법을 우리나라 자료에 맞게 수정하여 공급지장비용을 추정하였으며, 경제학적 접근법에 의한 용수의 한계가치비용 등과 비교를 통해 적용성을 검토하였다.

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Classification of Soil Creep Hazard Class Using Machine Learning (기계학습기법을 이용한 땅밀림 위험등급 분류)

  • Lee, Gi Ha;Le, Xuan-Hien;Yeon, Min Ho;Seo, Jun Pyo;Lee, Chang Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2021
  • In this study, classification models were built using machine learning techniques that can classify the soil creep risk into three classes from A to C (A: risk, B: moderate, C: good). A total of six machine learning techniques were used: K-Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting and then their classification accuracy was analyzed using the nationwide soil creep field survey data in 2019 and 2020. As a result of classification accuracy analysis, all six methods showed excellent accuracy of 0.9 or more. The methods where numerical data were applied for data training showed better performance than the methods based on character data of field survey evaluation table. Moreover, the methods learned with the data group (R1~R4) reflecting the expert opinion had higher accuracy than the field survey evaluation score data group (C1~C4). The machine learning can be used as a tool for prediction of soil creep if high-quality data are continuously secured and updated in the future.

The 1:5,000 Forest Soil Map: Current Status and Future Directions (1:5,000 산림입지토양도의 제작과 활용 및 향후 발전 방향)

  • Kwon, Minyoung;Kim, Gaeun;Jeong, Jinhyun;Choi, Changeun;Park, Gwansoo;Kim, Choonsig;Son, Yowhan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.110 no.4
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    • pp.479-495
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    • 2021
  • To improve on the efficient management of forest resources, it is necessary to create a forest soil map, which represents a comprehensive database of forest lands. Although a 1:25,000 scale forest site map has been used in Korea, the need for a large-scale forest soil map with high precision and information on forest lands that is specialized for individual purposes has been identified. Moreover, to keep pace with the advancement in forest management and transition to a digital society, it is essential to develop a method for constructing new forest soil maps that can diversify its use. Therefore, this paper presented a developmental process and used a 1:5,000 scale forest soil map to propose future directions. National maps showing the soil type, depth, and texture were produced based on the survey and analysis of forest soils, followed by the Forest Land Soil Map (1:5,000) Production Standard Manual. Alternatively, forest soil map data were the basis on which various other maps that can be used to prevent and predict forest disasters and evaluate environmental capacities were developed. Accordingly, ways to provide appropriate information to achieve the national forest plan, secure forestry big data, and accomplish sustainable forest management that corresponds to the national development plan are proposed based on results from the current study.

Vulnerability Assessment of Landslide by Heavy Rain to Establish Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Local Governments (지자체 기후변화 적응계획 수립지원을 위한 집중호우에 의한 산사태 취약성 평가)

  • Lee, Dong-kun;Kim, Ho Gul;Baek, Gyoung Hye;Seo, Changwan;Kim, Jaeuk;Song, Changkeun;Yu, Jeong Ah
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2012
  • KMA(Korea Meteorological Administration) projected that annual mean temperatures of South Korea will rise $3.8^{\circ}C$ and the annual total precipitation will increase by 17 percent by 2100. Rainfall is concentrated during the summer in South Korea. Thus the risk of landslide by heavy rain is expected to increase. After the landslide of Mt. Umyeon occurred in July 2011, disaster of forest sector is highlighted. Therefore vulnerability assessment of landslide is urgent. However, vulnerability assessment based on local governments was not done yet. In this study, we assess vulnerability of landslide by heavy rain for local governments. We used several scenarios to consider uncertainty of climate change. Through this study, local governments can use the results to establish adaptation plans. Also, the results could be used to decrease vulnerability of landslide.

Real-time Reservoir Dam Status Evaluation System Using Wireless Sensor Network System (무선 센서 네트워크 시스템을 이용한 실시간 저수지 댐의 상태평가 시스템)

  • Yoo, Chanho;Kim, Seungwook;Hwang, Jungsoon;Na, Gihyuk;You, Kwangho
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.41-46
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    • 2018
  • The wireless sensor network system has the advantage of confirming the behavior of the entire facility by improving the disadvantages of conventional monitoring system. As a result, it is widely proposed as safety diagnosis and measurement of structures, water management systems, and management systems for dam structures. However, there is a lack of research that can evaluate the condition of facilities such as safety at the same time as monitoring. In this study, it is proposed a wireless sensor network system which can evaluate the behavior characteristics of facilities and evaluate the safety status for improving the technical disadvantages on conventional monitoring system. The geotechnical risk factors for the reservoir dam facility were evaluated and the limit values for the risk factors causing the failure of the facility were set. In other words, the system was set up so that the risk factors can be measured and the limit status can be evaluated immediately for each factor. In this study, numerical analysis is carried out for seepage and slope stability analysis using the typical cross section for reservoir dams. The stress-porewater coupling finite difference numerical analysis is performed for establishing the limit displacement for reservoir dam structures. It is developed a system that can estimate the time to reach the critical value by regression analysis using the measured datas.