• Title/Summary/Keyword: 재해예측

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Sensitivity Analysis on Ecological Factors Affecting Forest Fire Spreading: Simulation Study (산불확산에 영향을 미치는 생태학적 요소들간의 민감도 분석: 시뮬레이션 연구)

  • Song, Hark-Soo;Lee, Sang-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.178-185
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    • 2013
  • Forest fires are expected to increase in severity and frequency under global climate change and thus better understanding of fire dynamics is critical for mitigation and adaptation. Researchers with different background, such as ecologists, physicists, and mathematical biologists, have developed various simulation models to reproduce forest fire spread dynamics. However, these models have limitations in the fire spreading because of the complicated factors such as fuel types, wind, and moisture. In this study, we suggested a simple model considering the wind effect and two different fuel types. The two fuels correspond to susceptible tree and resistant tree with different probabilities of transferring fire. The trees were randomly distributed in simulation space with a density ranging from 0.0 (low) to 1.0 (high). The susceptible tree had higher value of the probability than the resistant tree. Based on the number of burnt trees, we then carried out the sensitivity analysis to quantify how the forest fire patterns are affected by wind and tree density. The statistical analysis showed that the total tree density had greatest effect on the forest fire spreading and wind had the next greatest effect. The density of the susceptible tree was relatively lower factor affecting the forest fire. We believe that our model can be a useful tool to explore forest fire spreading patterns.

The evaluation of Soil Erosion Risk of Urban Area based on Geospatial Information (공간정보를 활용한 도심지 토사유실 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Geun-Sang
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2015
  • Recently, soil erosion have been thickening from heavy rainfall according to climate change. These soil erosion is main reason to cause landslide, the water quality, agricultural counterproductivity and so on. Therefore, it is important to find out the main source area to cause soil erosion using geospatial data including DEM, soil map and land cover those are very sensitive to soil erosion modeling. This study evaluated soil erosion using RUSLE model. Hyoja 4-Dong and Pyonghwa 2-Dong among Wansan-Gu showed high as 10,869 ton/yr and 10,477 ton/yr respectively and Ua 2-Dong of Deokjin-Gu showed high as 17,603 ton/yr in soil erosion. And Hyoja 1-Dong and Pyonghwa 1-Dong among Wansan-Gu showed high as $1,485.7ton/km^2$ and $1,297.0ton/km^2$ respectively and Inhu 3-Dong of Deokjin-Gu showed high as $2,557.7ton/km^2$ in unit soil erosion that was applied to the evaluation of soil erosion potential. It is anticipated that achievement of this study can apply to forecast and prepare the risk of soil erosion and debris flow in urban area.

Regional Frequency Analysis for Future Precipitation from RCP Scenarios (대표농도경로 시나리오에 의한 미래 강수량의 지역빈도해석)

  • Kim, Duck Hwan;Hong, Seung Jin;Choi, Chang Hyun;Han, Dae Gun;Lee, So Jong;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2015
  • Variability of precipitation pattern and intensity are increasing due to the urbanization and industrialization which induce increasing impervious area and the climate change. Therefore, more severe urban inundation and flood damage will be occurred by localized heavy precipitation event in the future. In this study, we analyze the future frequency based precipitation under climate change based on the regional frequency analysis. The observed precipitation data from 58 stations provided by Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) are collected and the data period is more than 30 years. Then the frequency based precipitation for the observed data by regional frequency analysis are estimated. In order to remove the bias from the simulated precipitation by RCP scenarios, the quantile mapping method and outlier test are used. The regional frequency analysis using L-moment method(Hosking and Wallis, 1997) is performed and the future frequency based precipitation for 80, 100, and 200 years of return period are estimated. As a result, future frequency based precipitation in South Korea will be increased by 25 to 27 percent. Especially the result for Jeju Island shows that the increasing rate will be higher than other areas. Severe heavy precipitation could be more and more frequently occurred in the future due to the climate change and the runoff characteristics will be also changed by urbanization, industrialization, and climate change. Therefore, we need prepare flood prevention measures for our flood safety in the future.

The Study of Relationship between Berm Width and Debris Flow at the Slope (사면에서 토석류와 소단폭의 관계성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sungduk;Oh, Sewook;Lee, Hojin
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the behavior and the mechanism of debris flow at the end of mountain side when a berm was set on the inclined plane. The numerical model was performed by using the Finite Difference Method(FDM) based on the equation for the mass conservation and momentum conservation. In order to measure the behavior of the debris flow, the debris flow of a straight channel slope and the debris flow of channel slope with 3 types of berms were compared. First, the flow discharge and the sediment volume concentration at the downstream of the channel slope, depending on the various berm width and the different inflow discharges at the upstream of the channel were analyzed. The longer the berm width, the flow discharge at the downstream of the channel was decreased and the high flow fluctuation was reduced by a berm. And it means that a berm can effect for the delay of the debris flow. Through Root Mean Square ratio(RMS) comparison, the flow discharge of the channel slope with a berm was lower than that of a straight channel slope. The longer the berm width, for the sediment volume concentration, an inflection point did not show but mild curve. Because the low sediment concentration with water mixture by a berm continuously flow at the downstream end, it will be effect for reducing the disaster caused by debris flow. The results of this study will provide useful information in predicting and preventing disaster caused by the debris flow.

A Dominant Discharge Estimate for Channel Characteristics Quantity Survey (하도특성량 조사를 위한 지배유량의 산정)

  • Im, Chang-Su;Lee, Joon-Ho;Kim, Tae-Hee;Lee, Jae-Chul;Yoon, Sei-Eui
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.66-71
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    • 2006
  • 최근에 하도계획의 주된 과제는 하천환경의 보전과 창조를 위한 비용의 최소화이며, 침식과 세굴에 대한 하천관리 시설의 안정성을 확보하기 위한 질적 안전도의 최대화에 있다. 이를 위해 하도의 변화를 전제로 이동상 현상을 고려하고 저수로의 특성을 파악하여 하도계획에 반영하는 것이 필요하다. 이러한 하도계획과 관리를 위한 주요한 도구로서 하도특성조사가 제시되고 있다. 우리나라에서는 수변 생태환경의 기능회복으로의 하천환경에 관심을 기울이기 시작한 단계에 머물러 있다. 국내에서도 일본 등 선진 외국과 같이 홍수시 재해를 크게 경감하고, 자연환경을 실질적이고 체계적으로 배려하면서 경제적 하도계획 및 관리에 역점을 두어야 할 시점에 이르렀다. 이를 위해서는 우선적으로 하천이 갖고 있는 고유 특성인 하도특성에 대한 조사가 선행되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 대상하천을 선정하고 측량, 하상재료 채취 및 분석, 유사량 채취 등의 기초조사를 수행하였으며, 이에 따른 하도특성량을 분석하였다. 대상하천은 금강유역의 지천 하류부의 약 2km 구간을 선정하였으며, 2003년${\sim}$2004년에 3회에 걸쳐 측량을 실시하고, 구간내 구룡수위표에서 유량 몇 유사량을 측정하였다. 또한 대상구간내 14개 지점에서 하상토를 채취하여 입도분석을 실시하였으며, 구룡수위표 자료를 이용하여 수문자료를 구축하였다. 수집된 기초자료를 이용하여 대상구간의 강턱유량, 특정재현기간유량, 유효유량을 산정하여 지배유량을 결정하였다. 산정된 지배유량을 이용하여 하상경사, 대표입경, 저수로내 평균수심, 에너지 경사, 마찰속도, 무차원소류력, 하폭-수심비, 수심-입경비 등의 하도특성량을 산출하여 하천환경정비를 위한 기초자료로서 활용 될 수 있도록 하였다.구에 맞는 작물 생산 및 농촌관광단지 조성을 통해 부가가치증대 및 소득증대를 꾀함으로 농촌문제 해결에 도움이 될 것으로 기대된다. 본 연구를 통해 GIS 와 RS의 기술이 농촌분야에 더 효율적으로 적용될 것으로 기대되며, 농업기술센터를 통한 정보제공을 함으로써 대농민 서비스 및 농업기관의 위상이 제고 될 것으로 기대된다.여 전자파의 공간적인 가시화를 수행할 수 있었다. 본 전자파 시뮬레이션 기법이 실무에 이용될 경우, 일반인이 전자파의 분포에 대한 전문지식을 습득할 필요 없이, 검색하고자 하는 지역과 송전선, 전철 등 각종 전자파의 발생 공간 객체를 선택하여 실생활과 관련된 전자파 정보에 예측할 수 있어, 대민 환경정보 서비스 질의 개선측면에서 획기적인 계기를 마련할 것으로 사료된다.acid$(C_{18:3})$가 대부분을 차지하였다. 야생 돌복숭아 과육 중의 지방산 조성은 포화지방산이 16.74%, 단불포화지방산 17.51% 및 다불포화지방산이 65.73%의 함유 비율을 보였는데, 이 중 다불포화지방산인 n-6계 linoleic acid$(C_{18:2})$와 n-3계 linolenic acid$(C_{18:3})$가 지질 구성 총 지방산의 대부분을 차지하는 함유 비율을 나타내었다.했다. 하강하는 약 4일간의 기상변화가 자발성 기흉 발생에 영향을 미친다고 추론할 수 있었다. 향후 본 연구에서 추론된 기상변화와 기흉 발생과의 인과관계를 확인하고 좀 더 구체화하기 위한 연구가 필요할 것이다.게 이루어질 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.는 초과수익률이 상승하지만, 이후로는 감소하므로, 반전거래전략을 활용하는 경우 주식투자기간은 24개월이하의 중단기가 적합함을 발견하였다. 이상의 행

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Development of Turbidity Management System for Nakdong River using Water Quality Model (수질모형을 이용한 낙동강 탁도관리시스템 구축)

  • Kim Young Do;Noh Joonwoo;Ko Ick Hwan;Kim Woo Gu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.1378-1382
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    • 2005
  • 여름철 집중강우시 유입되는 고탁수층은 저수지의 밀도성층으로 인하여 표수층 하부에 위치하며, 이를 적기에 배제하지 않을 경우에는 수평방향의 확산현상과 연직방향의 전도현상으로 인해 저수지 전역에 분포하게 되어, 탁수현상의 장기화를 유발한다. 이와 같은 탁수장기화에 대한 저수지내 대책의 하나로서 홍수유입후 탁도가 높은 물을 단기간동안 방류하고, 갈수기에는 탁도가 낮은 물을 방류하는 선택취수 기법을 적용할 수 있다. 임하댐의 경우, 2004년 태풍 '디앤무'와 태풍 '메기'로 인해 발생한 탁수를 선택취수를 통하여 조기에 배제함으로써 호내탁도를 저감시킨 바 있다. 그러나 이와 같은 고탁수 우선배제 기법은 반드시 하류하천의 영향범위를 사전에 분석검토하고, 하류하천의 수질현황을 고려한 합리적인 운영방안이 제시되어야 한다. 2004년 태풍 '디앤무' 발생직후의 댐방수로에서 170 NTU의 고탁수를 방류한 경우, 유하거리 250 km인 지점까지 30 NTU이상 유지된 바 있으며, 태풍 '메기'에 의한 고탁수 유입시, 임하댐 방류수 157 NTU, 안동댐 방류수 37 NTU인 경우에 임하댐 하류 113 km인 구미 선산 취수장까지 63 NTU의 탁도가 유지된 바 있다. 현재 임하댐의 경우, 하류하천으로의 방류수 수질을 모니터링할 수 있는 자동수질측정시스템이 발전취수탑 전면 1개소, 조정지댐 1개소에 설치되어 있다. 본 연구에서는 자동수질측정시스템과 연계하여 수질모형을 통하여 임하댐 하류하천인 낙동강 본류의 탁도관리시스템을 구축하고자 하였다. 환경부의 수질측정망 자료를 통하여 최근 3년간의 부유사농도의 변화양상을 분석하였으며, 태풍 직후의 낙동강 주요지점별 탁도측정자료를 이용하여 임하댐 고탁도방류에 의한 영향범위를 분석하였다. 또한 하천수질모형을 이용하여 탁수예측방법에 대하여 검토하였고, 이를 이용한 탁도관리시스템 구축을 위한 기본 방향을 제시하고자 한다.함께, 2단계에 (주)웹솔루스에서 자체적으로 설치 운영하고 있는 2개소의 하수관거 모니터링 관측시설, 그리고 안양시에서 운영하고 있는 5개소의 강우관측소와 7개소의 수위관측소를 모두 통합하여 실시간 자료를 제공하고 있다. 수위자료는 10분단위의 텍스트정보와 그래프형태로 지원되며, 검색기간 설정을 통해 원하는 기간내의 자료를 선별, 검색할 수 있다.. 또한 이와 같은 기초적인 정보를 바탕으로 하류하천의 탁수 피해를 최소화할 수 있는 선택취수탑의 운영방안을 수립할 수 있다 본 연구에서는 이를 위해 선택취수탑 주위의 성층흐름을 기존의 실험자료와 수치해석을 통하여 분석하였고, 온도성층구조나 취수구의 위치변화에 따른 방류수 수질특성을 조사하였다.쇄파대(artifical reef)와 같은 완충지대를 갖는 호안을 축조함으로써 월파량을 감소시키는 대안으로 제시하고자 한다. 본 연구 수행을 통해 태풍 내습시 발생 가능한 자연재해에 대한 사전 방지를 목적으로 태풍피해의 원인을 제시하고 이를 해결하여 현재의 방재대책이 항구적인 방재대책으로 전환될 수 있는 방안 마련의 기초 자료로 활용되기를 기대한다., L-arabinose, 및 D-galactose; 제3차(第三次) 가수분해물(加水分解物)(C)에서 L-rhamnose, D-xylose, L-arabinose 및 D-galactose, 비가수분해물(非加水分解物)(C')에서 D-xylose와 D-galactose를 검출(檢出)하였다. (4) 구성당(構成糖)의 형태(形態)와 구조(構造)를 밝히기 위(爲)해 polysaccharide C에 대한 periodate산화(酸化) 실험(實驗)을 하여 $C_5H_8O_4$당(當) periodate의 소비(消費)와 formic acid의 생성량(生成量)을 측정(測定)하였는데 periodate의 소비량(消費量)은 1.23 mole, formic acid의 생성량(生成量)

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The ETCCDI and Frequency Analysis using RCP Scenarios (RCP 시나리오를 고려한 극치통계분석 및 빈도해석)

  • Kim, Duck Hwan;Kim, Yon Soo;Hong, Seung Jin;Ly, Sidoeun;Jung, Younghun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.595-607
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    • 2013
  • In this study we estimated ETCCDI and frequency based precipitation using observed precipitation and precipitation from Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) scenarios for 58 weather stations which have the recorded data more than 30 years. We tried to eliminate the bias by Quantile Mapping and tested for outliers of simulated data under climate change scenario. Then we estimated ETCCDI related to precipitation and frequency based precipitation for the future. In addition to this study examined the changes of frequency based precipitation for the future target periods. According to the result, dry days will be increased in Korean Peninsula in the 2090s. Also it showed that the number of heavy precipitation day more than 80mm/day tends to be increased in 3~7% in the future. The precipitation of 24-hour duration under climate change will be increased by 17.7% for 80-year frequency, 18.2% for 100-year frequency and 19.6% for 200-year frequency in 2090s. In the 21st century, the damage caused by natural disasters is expected to be increased due to increase of precipitation and the change of runoff characteristics under climate change. Therefore, the proposed ETCCDI and precipitation frequency under climate change are expected to be used for the future natural disaster plan.

Operation Scheduling in a Commercial Building with Chiller System and Energy Storage System for a Demand Response Market (냉각 시스템 및 에너지 저장 시스템을 갖춘 상업용 빌딩의 수요자원 거래시장 대응을 위한 운영 스케줄링)

  • Son, Joon-Ho;Rho, Dae-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.8
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    • pp.312-321
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    • 2018
  • The Korean DR market proposes suppression of peak demand under reliability crisis caused a natural disaster or unexpected power plant accidents as well as saving power plant construction costs and expanding amount of reserve as utility's perspective. End-user is notified a DR event signal DR execution before one hour, and executes DR based on requested amount of load reduction. This paper proposes a DR energy management algorithm that can be scheduled the optimal operations of chiller system and ESS in the next day considering the TOU tariff and DR scheme. In this DR algorithm is divided into two scheduling's; day-ahead operation scheduling with temperature forecasting error and operation rescheduling on DR operation. In day-ahead operation scheduling, the operations of DR resources are scheduled based on the finite number of ambient temperature scenarios, which have been generated based on the historical ambient temperature data. As well as, the uncertainties in DR event including requested amount of load reduction and specified DR duration are also considered as scenarios. Also, operation rescheduling on DR operation day is proposed to ensure thermal comfort and the benefit of a COB owner. The proposed method minimizes the expected energy cost by a mixed integer linear programming (MILP).

Evaluation on Transverse Load Performance of Lightweight Composite Panels (경량 복합패널의 분포압 강도 성능 평가)

  • Kang, Su-Min;Hwang, Moon-Young;Kim, Sung-Tae;Cho, Young-Jun;Lee, Byung-yun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.146-157
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    • 2018
  • Over the last 10 years, the number of disasters has been increasing in Korea. As a result, the need for temporary residences or shelters for disaster conditions is increasing. In this study, post-disaster refugees housing was developed using lightweight composite panels that are lighter than the materials that make up the existing shelter. To accomplish this, the structural performance of the lightweight composite panel was validated. Among the performance tests on the panels, the transverse load test was conducted according to the ASTM E 72 criteria. As a result of the experiment, when each specimen was subjected to a uniformly distributed load, the allowable load was determined according to the span. All the experiments were ended due to a loss of adhesive at the junction of the skin and core. Further analysis was conducted to calculate the shear stress when the junction was dropped. The mean shear stress at the adhesive surface of a specimen, 150 mm and 200 mm in thickness, was 0.0170MPa and 0.0156MPa, respectively. This suggests that similar values were obtained from panels of equal thickness. In addition, this stress provides a criterion of judgment that could be used to inspect the structural performance of the panels. The performance of the panel was evaluated based on the allowable load, but it may be possible to increase the strength of the lightweight composite panel by improving the joining method to avoid separation from the junction.

Variation of Landslide Risk with Parameters (매개변수에 따른 산사태 위험도의 변화)

  • Lee, Jundae;Kwon, Youngcheul;Bae, Wooseok
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2018
  • In this study we performed risk evaluation based on parameters using the SINMAP, GIS-based extended program in order to predict ground disaster that is frequent recently. As for the risk evaluation, in order to understand the effects of parameters, we defined that the ranges of internal friction angles and T/R values as important variables had three and four patterns, respectively. The results of the interpretation were compared with those of the existing landslide in order to identify landslide flow and to evaluate the applicability of the parameters. The analysis of the geomorphologic saturated zone showed that the boundary saturated zone and the saturated zone were almost consistent with the site of avalanche of earth and rocks and the area of underground water convergence was correlated to the area where collapse started, indicating that the geomorphologic saturated zone may serve as an index for estimating possibility of landslide when used with slope distribution, colluvial soil, and structures inducing landslide in combination. When the lower limit of the internal friction angle increased more, the upper threshold decreased by 50 to 70% and the influence on the stability index was higher, but the influence was declined within the range of lower wetness index. The analysis of changes based on wetness index range showed that all the groups have similar SI distribution, except for the one in which mean altitude values are applied, indicating that the results are susceptible more by the internal friction angle than by the wetness index.