• Title/Summary/Keyword: 일치 불확실성

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Shape Oscillation and Detachment of Droplet on Vibrating Flat Surface (진동하는 평판 위의 액적의 형상 진동 및 제거 조건에 대한 연구)

  • Shin, Young-Sub;Lim, Hee-Chang
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.337-346
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    • 2014
  • This study aimed to understand the mode characteristics of a droplet subject to periodic forced vibration and the detachment of a droplet placed on a plate surface. An surface was coated with Teflon to clearly observe the behavior of a droplet. The contact angle between the droplet and surface and the hysteresis were found to be approximately $115^{\circ}C$ and within $25^{\circ}C$, respectively. The coating process was performed in a clean room that had an environment with a low level of contaminants and impurities such as air dust, detergents, and particles. To predict the resonance frequency of a droplet, theoretical and experimental approaches were applied. Two high-speed cameras were configured to acquire side and top views and thus capture different characteristics of a droplet: the mode shape, the detachment, the separated secondary droplet, and the waggling motion. A comparison of the theoretical and experimental results shows no more than 18 discrepancies when predicting the resonance frequency. These differences seem to be caused by contact line friction, nonlinear wall adhesion, and the uncertainty of the experiment. For lower energy inputs, the contact line of the droplet was pinned and the oscillation pattern was axisymmetric. However, the contact line of the droplet was de-pinned as the oscillation became more vigorous with increased energy input. The size of each lobe at the resonance frequency is somewhat larger than that at the neighboring frequency. A droplet in mode 2, one of the primary mode frequencies, exhibits vertical periodic movement as well as detachment and secondary ejection from the main droplet.

Forecasting Birthrate Change based on Big Data (빅데이터 기반의 출산율 변동 예측)

  • Joo, Se-Min;Ok, Seong-Hwan;Hwang, Kyung-Tae
    • Informatization Policy
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.20-35
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    • 2019
  • We empirically analyze the effects of psychological factors, such as the fear of parenting, on fertility rates. An index is calculated based on the share of negative news articles on child care in all social articles from 2000 to 2018. The analysis result shows that as the index increases, the fertility rate after three years falls. This result is repeated in the correlation analysis, simple regression, and VAR analysis. According to Granger causality analysis, it is found that the relation between the index and the fertility rate after three years is not just a simple correlation but a causal relationship. There are differences among age groups. The fertility rate of women in their 20s and 30s shows a significant response to the index, but that of the 40s does not. The index affects the birthrate of first child, but do not affect the birthrate of second or more children. These results are consistent with the intuition that younger women are more likely to be affected by the negative articles about parenting, but not to those who have already experienced childbirth. This study is meaningful in that a significant index for predicting social phenomena is extracted beyond the limited use of news big data such as a simple keyword mention volume monitoring. Also, this big data-based index is a 3-year leading indicator for fertility, which provides the advantage of providing information that helps early detection.

A Study on Regionalization of Parameters for Sacramento Continuous Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Watershed Characteristics (유역특성인자를 활용한 Sacramento 장기유출모형의 매개변수 지역화 기법 연구)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Jeong, Ga-In;Kim, Ki-Young;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.10
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    • pp.793-806
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    • 2015
  • The simulation of natural streamflow at ungauged basins is one of the fundamental challenges in hydrology community. The key to runoff simulation in ungauged basins is generally involved with a reliable parameter estimation in a rainfall-runoff model. However, the parameter estimation of the rainfall-runoff model is a complex issue due to an insufficient hydrologic data. This study aims to regionalize the parameters of a continuous rainfall-runoff model in conjunction with a Bayesian statistical technique to consider uncertainty more precisely associated with the parameters. First, this study employed Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme for the estimation of the Sacramento rainfall-runoff model. The Sacramento model is calibrated against observed daily runoff data, and finally, the posterior density function of the parameters is derived. Second, we applied a multiple linear regression model to the set of the parameters with watershed characteristics, to obtain a functional relationship between pairs of variables. The proposed model was also validated with gauged watersheds in accordance with the efficiency criteria such as the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, index of agreement and the coefficient of correlation.

Comparison Impulse Response Method with Method of Characteristics for Transient Analysis in a Pipeline System with hydraulic devices (수리구조물이 부착된 관망에서의 천이류 해석에 대한 임펄스응답법과 특성선방법의 비교 연구)

  • Song, Yong-Seok;Jang, Il;Kim, Sang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.1179-1183
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    • 2007
  • 관망 내에서 흐름의 연속 방정식과 운동량 방정식을 상 미분으로 전개하여 해석한 특성선 방법은 주로 가압 관망체계(Pressurized Pipeline System)에서의 부정류 해석(Unsteady Analysis)에 사용 된다. 그러나 이특성선 방법은 천이류 해석을 위한 관망 재구성 과정에서 Courant수 조건의 만족을 위한 관의 재배열에 천문학적인 계산용량과 시간이 필요하다는 단점이 있다. 이는 현장 적용 시 압력파 전파속도의 불확실성과 연계되어 상당한 장해요소가 되고 있다. 이에 대안적인 방법으로서 임펄스응답법이 개발되었다. 이는 경계지점에서 복소수 유량에 대한 복소수 수두의 비율로써 정의된 관망에서의 수리임피던스를 역퓨리에 변환에 적용하여, 주파수 영역의 수치를 시간 영역으로 변환하여 응답함수를 산출한 후, 산출된 응답함수와 구해진 경계지점에서의 유량과의 적분을 통하여 임의의 지점에서의 수두 및 유량을 계산하는 방법이다. 임펄스 응답법은 관 부속물관의 특성을 기술하는 수학적 표현의 난해함으로 인해 지금까지는 단일관에 대한 연구에만 국한되어 왔다. 본 연구에서는 임펄스응답법을 수리구조물이 부착된 관망에 적용하여 다양한 조건에서 천이류 분석을 시행하였다. 즉, 에어챔버 및 서지탱크와 같은 수리구조물을 각각에 대한 수리임피던스를 구하고, 가지관 및 통합 관성항으로 취급하여 수리구조물을 처리하였다. 그리고 이러한 결과를 특성선방법과 비교하여 그 적절성을 검증하였는데, 특성선 방법에 의한 모의 결과와 비교하였을 때, 일치하는 결과를 나타내었다. 임펄스응답법에 의한 모의 결과에서 감쇄효과를 과대평가하는 경향이 관찰되었다. 이는 임펄스 응답법의 가정에 기인한 것으로써 난류 상태의 흐름에서 상당한 불일치를 가져올 수 있으나, 수리 구조물에 의한 수격압이 감쇄되는 과정에서 대부분 흐름이 층류 상태로 전환된다고 가정 할 때는 상당한 적용성이 있다. 본 연구는 수리구조물이 부착된 관망의 해석함에 있어서 임펄스응답법의 적용이 가능함을 보였고, 이는 보다 복잡한 관망에서의 천이류 해석이 가능함을 시사한다.

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Evaluation of Factors Used in AAPM TG-43 Formalism Using Segmented Sources Integration Method and Monte Carlo Simulation: Implementation of microSelectron HDR Ir-192 Source (미소선원 적분법과 몬테칼로 방법을 이용한 AAPM TG-43 선량계산 인자 평가: microSelectron HDR Ir-192 선원에 대한 적용)

  • Ahn, Woo-Sang;Jang, Won-Woo;Park, Sung-Ho;Jung, Sang-Hoon;Cho, Woon-Kap;Kim, Young-Seok;Ahn, Seung-Do
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.190-197
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    • 2011
  • Currently, the dose distribution calculation used by commercial treatment planning systems (TPSs) for high-dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy is derived from point and line source approximation method recommended by AAPM Task Group 43 (TG-43). However, the study of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is required in order to assess the accuracy of dose calculation around three-dimensional Ir-192 source. In this study, geometry factor was calculated using segmented sources integration method by dividing microSelectron HDR Ir-192 source into smaller parts. The Monte Carlo code (MCNPX 2.5.0) was used to calculate the dose rate $\dot{D}(r,\theta)$ at a point ($r,\theta$) away from a HDR Ir-192 source in spherical water phantom with 30 cm diameter. Finally, anisotropy function and radial dose function were calculated from obtained results. The obtained geometry factor was compared with that calculated from line source approximation. Similarly, obtained anisotropy function and radial dose function were compared with those derived from MCPT results by Williamson. The geometry factor calculated from segmented sources integration method and line source approximation was within 0.2% for $r{\geq}0.5$ cm and 1.33% for r=0.1 cm, respectively. The relative-root mean square error (R-RMSE) of anisotropy function obtained by this study and Williamson was 2.33% for r=0.25 cm and within 1% for r>0.5 cm, respectively. The R-RMSE of radial dose function was 0.46% at radial distance from 0.1 to 14.0 cm. The geometry factor acquired from segmented sources integration method and line source approximation was in good agreement for $r{\geq}0.1$ cm. However, application of segmented sources integration method seems to be valid, since this method using three-dimensional Ir-192 source provides more realistic geometry factor. The anisotropy function and radial dose function estimated from MCNPX in this study and MCPT by Williamson are in good agreement within uncertainty of Monte Carlo codes except at radial distance of r=0.25 cm. It is expected that Monte Carlo code used in this study could be applied to other sources utilized for brachytherapy.

Impact Assessment of Spatial Resolution of Radar Rainfall and a Distributed Hydrologic Model on Parameter Estimation (레이더 강우 및 분포형 수문모형의 공간해상도가 매개변수 추정에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Noh, Seong Jin;Choi, Shin Woo;Choi, Yun Seok;Kim, Kyung Tak
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.1443-1454
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    • 2014
  • In this study, we assess impact of spatial resolution of radar rainfall and a distributed hydrologic model on parameter estimation and rainfall-runoff response. Radar data measured by S-band polarimetric radar located at Mt. Bisl in the year of 2012 are used for the comparative study. As different rainfall estimates such as R-KDP, R-Z, and R-ZDR show good agreement with ground rainfall, R-KDP are applied for rainfall-runoff modeling due to relatively high accuracy in terms of catchment averaged and gauging point rainfall. GRM (grid based rainfall-runoff model) is implemented for flood simulations at the Geumho River catchment with spatial resolutions of 200m, 500m, and 1000m. Automatic calibration is performed by PEST (model independent parameter estimation tool) to find suitable parameters for each spatial resolution. For 200m resolution, multipliers of overlandflow and soil hydraulic conductivity are estimated within stable ranges, while high variations are found from results for 500m and 1000m resolution. No tendency is found in the estimated initial soil moisture. When parameters estimated for different spatial resolution are applied for other resolutions, 200m resolution model shows higher sensitivity compared to 1000m resolution model.

Redescription and Multivariate Analysis of Genus Phintella (Araneae, Salticidae) from Korea (한국산 Phintella속(거미목, 깡충거미과)의 재기재와 다변량분석)

  • Bo-Keun Seo
    • Animal Systematics, Evolution and Diversity
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.183-197
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    • 1995
  • Description and identifications of 6 species belonging to genus Phintella from Korea are in insufficient and inaccurate situation. In the present paper, redescriptions illustrations and identification key are provided for 7 species of genus Phintella including P. popovi newly recorded in Korean spider fauna, and Ocius munitus described by Wesolowska (1981s) was synonymized to P.cavaleriei. For the author's identiication and pairing to be valid multivariate analysis was performed with 13 RVCs below STD 0.05 to 134 individuals. The result of discriminant analysis carried out with 13 RVCs of 134 individuals was not satisfactory, but cluster analysis performed with mean ratio values of 14 OTUs to 13 RVCs showed the same result with author's pairing except P.abnormis , which has larger dissimilarity than the pairs of the others. So pairing of 7 species was possible as a whole because one species only failed in pairing , even though this is imperful result. This method to be helpful to pairing test and identification if it were to improve.

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Discharge Measurement by Ultrasonic Discharge Measurement System (초음파 유량측정 시스템에 의한 유량측정)

  • Kim, Chi Young;Yoon, Gwang Suk;Kim, Dong Gu;Kim, Won
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.1198-1202
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    • 2004
  • 초음파를 이용한 측정은 하천의 반대편에 흐름방향에 경사지게 초음파를 발사하여 다시 반사되어 오는 시간차를 기록함으로써 주어진 길이에서 유속을 연속적으로 측정하는 것이다. 하류로 내려가는 음파는 음향 측선(acoustic path)과 평행한 유속 성분 때문에 상류로 올라가는 음파보다 빠른 속도를 가진다. 탄천 및 괴산댐에 초음파 유량 측정시스템을 시험 설치하고 운영 결과를 검토하였다. 시험적용결과 연속적인 유량자료 획득이 가능하였으며, 기존 유속면적법 대비 $4.21\%$의 상대오차를 지니고 있어 기존 방법과 비교적 일치하는 측정결과를 나타냈다. 또한 지표유속(Index Velocity)를 활용한 단일회선 유량산정법을 검토한 결과, 다회선에 의해 운영한 결과와 평균 $2.9\%$의 상대오차를 지니고 있었다. 이 방법은 조석구간 및 배수영향을 받는 구간에서 작은 비용으로 연속유량자료를 획득할 수 있는 방법으로 판단된다. 시험적용 결과 개선해야 할 사항으로는 안정적인 자료 획득을 위한 초음파 변환기의 개선, 자료의 필터링 기술의 정밀화, 그리고 유량산정 방법에서 정확도 향상 기술 개발 등이 도출되었다. 초음파 유량 측정시스템은 자료의 연속성을 확보할 수 있는 점에서 매우 중요한 의미를 지니고 있다. 지금까지의 연속 유량 산출법은 연속적인 수위를 측정하고 각 수위에 따른 유량 측정 후 수위-유량관계를 통하여 연속적인 유량을 산출하였다. 그러나 초음파 유량 측정 시스템은 직접 유속과 수위를 측정하여 연속유량이 산출되기 때문에 연속유량 산출에 비교적 간편하다고 할 수 있다. 또한 정확도 면에서 기존 유량 측정법인 유속-면적법의 불확실도 $5\%\~10\%$에 비교하여 $5\%$ 내외의 정확도 수준을 지니고 있어 정확도 향상을 기대할 수 있다. 경제적인 측면에서도 매년 측정사업에 소요되는 비용과 비교하였을 때 장기적으로는 경제적인 방법이 될 수 있다.

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Reliability Analysis on Stability of Armor Units for Foundation Mound of Composite Breakwaters (혼성제 기초 마운드의 피복재 안정성에 대한 신뢰성 해석)

  • Cheol-Eung Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2023
  • Probabilistic and deterministic analyses are implemented for the armor units of rubble foundation mound of composite breakwaters which is needed to protect the upright section against the scour of foundation mounds. By a little modification and incorporation of the previous empirical formulas that has commonly been applied to design the armor units of foundation mound, a new type formula of stability number has been suggested which is capable of taking into account slopes of foundation mounds, damage ratios of armor units, and incident wave numbers. The new proposed formula becomes mathematically identical with the previous empirical formula under the same conditions used in the developing process. Deterministic design have first been carried out to evaluate the minimum weights of armor units for several conditions associated with a typical section of composite breakwater. When the slopes of foundation mound become steepening and the incident wave numbers are increasing, the bigger armor units more than those from the previous empirical formula should be required. The opposite trends however are shown if the damage ratios is much more allowed. Meanwhile, the reliability analysis, which is one of probabilistic models, has been performed in order to quantitatively verify how the armor unit resulted from the deterministic design is stable. It has been confirmed that 1.2% of annual encounter probability of failure has been evaluated under the condition of 1% damage ratio of armor units for the design wave of 50 years return period. By additionally calculating the influence factors of the related random variables on the failure probability due to those uncertainties, it has been found that Hudson's stability coefficient, significant wave height, and water depth above foundation mound have sequentially been given the impacts on failure regardless of the incident wave angles. Finally, sensitivity analysis has been interpreted with respect to the variations of random variables which are implicitly involved in the formula of stability number for armor units of foundation mound. Then, the probability of failure have been rapidly decreased as the water depth above foundation mound are deepening. However, it has been shown that the probability of failure have been increased according as the berm width of foundation mound are widening and wave periods become shortening.

Monte-Carlo Simulations of Non-ergodic Solute Transport from Line Sources in Isotropic Mildly Heterogeneous Aquifers (불균질 등방 대수층 내 선형오염원으로부터 기원된 비에르고딕 용질 이동에 관한 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션)

  • Seo Byong-min
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.20-31
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    • 2005
  • Three dimensional Monte-Carlo simulations of non-ergodic transport of a lion-reactive solute plume by steady-state groundwater flow under a uniform mean velocity in isotropic heterogeneous aquifers were conducted. The log-normally distributed hydraulic conductivity, K(x), is modeled as a random field. Significant efforts are made to reduce tile simulation uncertainties. Ensemble averages of the second spatial moments of the plume and plume centroid variances were simulated with 1600 Monte Carlo runs for three variances of log K, ${\sigma}_Y^2=0.09,\;0.23$, and 0.46, and three dimensionless lengths of line plume sources normal to the mean velocity. The simulated second spatial moment and the plume centroid variance in longitudinal direction fit well to the first order theoretical results while the simulated transverse moments are generally larger than the first order results. The first order theoretical results significantly underestimated the simulated dimensionless transverse moments for the aquifers of large ${\sigma}_Y^2$ and large dimensionless time. The ergodic condition for the second spatial moments is far from reaching in all cases simulated, and transport In transverse directions may reach ergodic condition much slower than that in longitudinal direction. The evolution of the contaminant transported in a heterogeneous aquifer is not affected by the shape of the initial plume but affected mainly by the degree of the heterogeneity and the size of the initial plume.