• Title/Summary/Keyword: 일반화 교차타당성

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Quantile regression using asymmetric Laplace distribution (비대칭 라플라스 분포를 이용한 분위수 회귀)

  • Park, Hye-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.1093-1101
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    • 2009
  • Quantile regression has become a more widely used technique to describe the distribution of a response variable given a set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a novel modelfor quantile regression using doubly penalized kernel machine with support vector machine iteratively reweighted least squares (SVM-IRWLS). To make inference about the shape of a population distribution, the widely popularregression, would be inadequate, if the distribution is not approximately Gaussian. We present a likelihood-based approach to the estimation of the regression quantiles that uses the asymmetric Laplace density.

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Varying coefficient model with errors in variables (가변계수 측정오차 회귀모형)

  • Sohn, Insuk;Shim, Jooyong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.971-980
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    • 2017
  • The varying coefficient regression model has gained lots of attention since it is capable to model dynamic changes of regression coefficients in many regression problems of science. In this paper we propose a varying coefficient regression model that effectively considers the errors on both input and response variables, which utilizes the kernel method in estimating the varying coefficient which is the unknown nonlinear function of smoothing variables. We provide a generalized cross validation method for choosing the hyper-parameters which affect the performance of the proposed model. The proposed method is evaluated through numerical studies.

A Study on Exploration of the Recommended Model of Decision Tree to Predict a Hard-to-Measure Mesurement in Anthropometric Survey (인체측정조사에서 측정곤란부위 예측을 위한 의사결정나무 추천 모형 탐지에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, J.H.;Kim, S.K.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.923-935
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    • 2009
  • This study aims to explore a recommended model of decision tree to predict a hard-to-measure measurement in anthropometric survey. We carry out an experiment on cross validation study to obtain a recommened model of decision tree. We use three split rules of decision tree, those are CHAID, Exhaustive CHAID, and CART. CART result is the best one in real world data.

Estimation of nonlinear GARCH-M model (비선형 평균 일반화 이분산 자기회귀모형의 추정)

  • Shim, Joo-Yong;Lee, Jang-Taek
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.831-839
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    • 2010
  • Least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is a kernel trick gaining a lot of popularities in the regression and classification problems. We use LS-SVM to propose a iterative algorithm for a nonlinear generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model in the mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate the mean and the conditional volatility of stock market returns. The proposed method combines a weighted LS-SVM for the mean and unweighted LS-SVM for the conditional volatility. In this paper, we show that nonlinear GARCH-M models have a higher performance than the linear GARCH model and the linear GARCH-M model via real data estimations.

A generalized self organizing evolutionary algorithm and its efficient application to control problems (일반화된 자기 형성 진화 알고리즘의 개발과 제어 문제에 대한 효율적 응용에 대한 연구)

  • Jeong, Il-Gwon;Lee, Ju-Jang
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.259-264
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    • 1997
  • 널리 쓰이는 진화 알고리즘은 크게 두가지가 있다. 유전 알고리즘과 진화 기법이 그것이다. 이들 알고리즘은 실행 전에 사용자가 정해주어야 하는 변수들을 가지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 이 두 알고리즘을 일반화시키고 집단의 크기, 교차변이 연산자 적용 확률 그리고 돌연변이 연산자 적용 확률과 같은 변수들을 알고리즘이 수행되는 동안 스스로 정하는 일반화된 자기 형성 진화 알고리즘을 제안한다. 제안된 알고리즘의 타당성과 효용성은 시스템 동정화와 다개체 시스템 제어의 두가지 복잡한 제어 문제에 대한 적용을 통해 보여진다.

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Estimating GARCH models using kernel machine learning (커널기계 기법을 이용한 일반화 이분산자기회귀모형 추정)

  • Hwang, Chang-Ha;Shin, Sa-Im
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.419-425
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    • 2010
  • Kernel machine learning is gaining a lot of popularities in analyzing large or high dimensional nonlinear data. We use this technique to estimate a GARCH model for predicting the conditional volatility of stock market returns. GARCH models are usually estimated using maximum likelihood (ML) procedures, assuming that the data are normally distributed. In this paper, we show that GARCH models can be estimated using kernel machine learning and that kernel machine has a higher predicting ability than ML methods and support vector machine, when estimating volatility of financial time series data with fat tail.

A study on semi-supervised kernel ridge regression estimation (준지도 커널능형회귀모형에 관한 연구)

  • Seok, Kyungha
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.341-353
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    • 2013
  • In many practical machine learning and data mining applications, unlabeled data are inexpensive and easy to obtain. Semi-supervised learning try to use such data to improve prediction performance. In this paper, a semi-supervised regression method, semi-supervised kernel ridge regression estimation, is proposed on the basis of kernel ridge regression model. The proposed method does not require a pilot estimation of the label of the unlabeled data. This means that the proposed method has good advantages including less number of parameters, easy computing and good generalization ability. Experiments show that the proposed method can effectively utilize unlabeled data to improve regression estimation.

Mixed effects least squares support vector machine for survival data analysis (생존자료분석을 위한 혼합효과 최소제곱 서포트벡터기계)

  • Hwang, Chang-Ha;Shim, Joo-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.739-748
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    • 2012
  • In this paper we propose a mixed effects least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) for the censored data which are observed from different groups. We use weights by which the randomly right censoring is taken into account in the nonlinear regression. The weights are formed with Kaplan-Meier estimates of censoring distribution. In the proposed model a random effects term representing inter-group variation is included. Furthermore generalized cross validation function is proposed for the selection of the optimal values of hyper-parameters. Experimental results are then presented which indicate the performance of the proposed LS-SVM by comparing with a standard LS-SVM for the censored data.

A Study for the Drivers of Movie Box-office Performance (영화흥행 영향요인 선택에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yon Hyong;Hong, Jeong Han
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.441-452
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    • 2013
  • This study analyzed the relationship between key film and a box office record success factors based on movies released in the first quarter of 2013 in Korea. An over-fitting problem can happen if there are too many explanatory variables inserted to regression model; in addition, there is a risk that the estimator is instable when there is multi-collinearity among the explanatory variables. For this reason, optimal variable selection based on high explanatory variables in box-office performance is of importance. Among the numerous ways to select variables, LASSO estimation applied by a generalized linear model has the smallest prediction error that can efficiently and quickly find variables with the highest explanatory power to box-office performance in order.

The Family Relationship Scale : Re-validation ("가족관계척도" 활용을 위한 타당도 연구)

  • Yang, Ok-Kyung;Lee, Min-Young
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.54
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    • pp.5-33
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    • 2003
  • This study is about the re-validation evaluation of the family Relationship Scale (FRS), developed to measure the family relationship in the social work practice. This study aims at re-validating the FRS, developed and validated in by Yang in 2001 for more general utilization. The sample was married mates and females residing in Seoul. For Face Validity, the content analysis was performed, and the FRS was re-validated in the dimensions of Love & Caring, Acceptance, and Recognition, positive affection, empathy, and autonomy and flexibility for each area. Internal reliability was .93, and internal consistency among three dimensions was 93%. For Empirical Validity, the Construct validity, the Criterion validity, and the Discriminant validity were performed. Construct Validity was validated through factor analyses. Commonalities for the factor analysis was 54%, and the factor loading for each factor was over .45. The confirmative factor analysis also confirmed the fitness of the scale. For Predictive Validity of Criterion Validity, regression analysis showed that the family stress scores became lower as the scores of the family relationship became higher; the discriminant analysis revealed that the family stress turned low ill tile group of high scores of family relationship. The Correlation analysis for Concurrent Validity was performed and the results showed the positive and significant relationship with a couple communication level (r=54) and a parent-child communication level (r=64). Life satisfaction and mental health level also revealed significantly positive correlation to prove Convergent Validity. Physical health level revealed a weak relationship with family relationship providing the evidence of Discriminant Validity. Discriminance was also proved by the analysis of variance with demographics. Thus, Cross Validation was confirmed the validation of the FRS through the various analyses with the married population. This study result improved the validity generalization of the Scale and verify the generalized usage of this sociometric scale in the field of social work practice.

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