• Title/Summary/Keyword: 인지 불확실성

Search Result 113, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

A development of hierarchical bayesian model for changing point analysis at watershed scale (유역단위에서의 연강수량의 변동점 분석을 위한 계층적 Bayesian 분석기법 개발)

  • Kim, Jin-Guk;Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Yoon-Hee;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.50 no.2
    • /
    • pp.75-87
    • /
    • 2017
  • In recent decades, extreme events have been significantly increased over the Korean Peninsula due to climate variability and climate change. The potential changes in hydrologic cycle associated with the extreme events increase uncertainty in water resources planning and designing. For these reasons, a reliable changing point analysis is generally required to better understand regime changes in hydrologic time series at watershed scale. In this study, a hierarchical changing point analysis approach that can apply in a watershed scale is developed by combining the existing changing point analysis method and hierarchical Bayesian method. The proposed model was applied to the selected stations that have annual rainfall data longer than 40 years. The results showed that the proposed model can quantitatively detect the shift in precipitation in the middle of 1990s and identify the increase in annual precipitation compared to the several decades prior to the 1990s. Finally, we explored the changes in precipitation and sea level pressure in the context of large-scale climate anomalies using reanalysis data, for a given change point. It was concluded that the identified large-scale patterns were substantially different from each other.

Division of Labour in Risk Governance: Cases of Public Deliberation for Radioactive Waste Management in the UK and Korea (기술위험 거버넌스에서의 역할분담: 영국과 한국의 방사성폐기물 관리 공론화 사례)

  • Lee, Yun Jeong
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.159-191
    • /
    • 2016
  • In order to deal with uncertainty and conflicting interests in technological risk policy-making, various participatory decision-making models have been practiced. This participatory approach is an alterative to the traditional process of science and technology policy-making where scientific experts provide evidence and government officials make decisions. However, there still remain different opinions on who should play what kind of role in decision-making process. Therefore this paper examines the division of labour in the public deliberations for radioactive waste management policy carried out in the UK and Korea. It discusses the ways in which various actors are defined, and the rationales are employed for allocating actors to certain roles and participatory methods. In so doing, this paper unfolds the ways in which the participatory decision-making process for risk governance is delivered in real policy context. Similarities and differences revealed in the division of labour of two cases contribute to development of radioactive waste management policy and the policy instruments for risk governance.

The Effects of Cognitive Bias on Entrepreneurial Opportunity Evaluations through Perceived Risks in Entrepreneurial Self-Efficacy (창업가의 인지편향이 지각된 위험과 조절된 창업효능감에 따라 창업기회평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Daeyop;Park, Jaehwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.95-112
    • /
    • 2020
  • This paper is to investigate how cognitive bias of college students and entrepreneurs relates to perceived risks and entrepreneurial opportunities that represent uncertainty, and how various cognitive bias and entrepreneurial efficacy In the same way. The purpose of this study is to find improvement points of entrepreneurship education for college students and to suggest problems and improvement possibilities in the decision making process of current entrepreneurs. This empirical study is a necessary to improve the decision-making of individuals who want to start a business at the time when various attempts are made to activate the start-up business and increase the sustainability of the existing SME management. And understanding of the difference in opportunity evaluation, and suggests that it is necessary to provide good opportunities together with the upbringing of entrepreneurs. In order to achieve the purpose of the study, questionnaires were conducted for college students and entrepreneurs. A total of 363 questionnaire data were obtained and demonstrated through structural equation modeling. This study confirms that there is some relationship between perceived risk and cognitive bias. Overconfidence and control illusions among cognitive bias have a significant relationship between perceived risk and wealth. Especially, it is confirmed that control illusion of college students has a significant relationship with perceived risk. Second, cognitive bias demonstrated some significant relationship with opportunity evaluation. Although we did not find evidence that excess self-confidence is related to opportunity evaluation, we have verified that control illusions and current status bias are related to opportunity evaluation. Control illusions were significant in both college students and entrepreneurs. Third, perceived risk has a negative relationship with opportunity evaluation. All students, regardless of whether they are college students or entrepreneurs, judge opportunities positively if they perceive low risk. Fourth, it can be seen from the college students 'group that entrepreneurial efficacy has a moderating effect between perceived risk and opportunity evaluation, but no significant results were found in the entrepreneurs' group. Fifth, the college students and entrepreneurs have different cognitive bias, and they have proved that there is a different relationship between entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation and perceived risk. On the whole, there are various cognitive biases that are caused by time pressure or stress on college students and entrepreneurs who have to make judgments in uncertain opportunities, and in this respect, they can improve their judgment in the future. At the same time, university students can have a positive view of new opportunities based on high entrepreneurial efficacy, but if they fully understand the intrinsic risks of entrepreneurship through entrepreneurial education and fully understand the cognitive bias present in direct entrepreneurial experience, You will get a better opportunity assessment. This study has limitations in that it is based on the fact that university students and entrepreneurs are integrated, and that the survey respondents are selected by the limited random sampling method. It is necessary to conduct more systematic research based on more faithful data in the absence of the accumulation of entrepreneurial research data. Second, the translation tools used in the previous studies were translated and the meaning of the measurement tools might not be conveyed due to language differences. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a more precise scale for the accuracy of the study. Finally, complementary research should be done to identify what competitive opportunities are and what opportunities are appropriate for entrepreneurs.

A Study on Virtual Environment Platform for Autonomous Tower Crane (타워크레인 자율화를 위한 가상환경 플랫폼 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Myeongjun;Yoon, Inseok;Kim, Namkyoun;Park, Moonseo;Ahn, Changbum;Jung, Minhyuk
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.3-14
    • /
    • 2022
  • Autonomous equipment requires a large amount of data from various environments. However, it takes a lot of time and cost for an experiment in a real construction sites, which are difficulties in data collection and processing. Therefore, this study aims to develop a virtual environment for autonomous tower cranes technology development and validation. The authors defined automation functions and operation conditions of tower cranes with three performance criteria: operational design domain, object and event detection and response, and minimum functional conditions. Afterward, this study developed a virtual environment for learning and validation for autonomous functions such as recognition, decision making, and control using the Unity game engine. Validation was conducted by construction industry experts with a fidelity which is the representative matrix for virtual environment assessment. Through the virtual environment platform developed in this study, it will be possible to reduce the cost and time for data collection and technology development. Also, it is also expected to contribute to autonomous driving for not only tower cranes but also other construction equipment.

Korean representation of biotechnology : For college students and lay adults (생명공학에 대한 한국인들의 표상: 대학생들과 일반 성인들을 중심으로)

  • Kyo-Heon Kim
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.165-187
    • /
    • 2002
  • This study examines Korean representation of the biotechnology and psychological factors which can influence lay people's perception and attitude about biotechnology. Korean college students(N=433) and lay adults(N=90) whom had college education participated in the study. Participants of the study 1 were asked to list words which comes to mind when associate with the biotechnology in broad sense, and several specific applications in health, medicines, agriculture and research. Participants of the study 2 were asked to list possible benefits and costs of biotechnology and their specific applications. In study 3, Participants responded the questionnaires about perceptions and attitudes of biotechnology. Korean people associated the biotechnology with its costs or risks and benefits. Korean college students mainly got the informations of the biotechnology from TV, newspapers, or internet. They trusted the scientist group and NGO group on their judgements about the assessment of risk and benefit of the biotechnology. College students showed the positive attitude with the applications in medicines and negative attitude with the applications in agriculture and public using of individual's genetic information. The radicalism, sensitivity in behavioral activation system, and trust/cynicism were to be found as a significant influencing factor for interest/knowledge and behavioral intention in related with biotechnology. Finally, more extensive knowledge of biotechnology did not lead to greater acceptance of it.

  • PDF

Drivers Detour Decision Factor Analysis with Combined Method of Decision Tree and Neural Network Algorithm (의사결정나무와 신경망 모형 결합에 의한 운전자 우회결정요인 분석)

  • Kang, Jin-Woong;Kum, Ki-Jung;Son, Seung-Neo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.13 no.3
    • /
    • pp.167-176
    • /
    • 2011
  • This study's purpose is to analyse factors of determination about detouring for makinga standard model in regard of unfavorableness and uncertainty when unspecified individual recipients make a decision at the time of course detour. In order to achieve this, we surveyed SP investigation whether making a detour or not for drivers as a target who take a high way and National highway. Based on this result, we analysed detour determination factors of drivers, establishing a combination model of Decision Tree and Neural Network model. The result demonstrates the effected factors on drivers' detour determination are in ordering of the recognition of alternative routevs, reliable and frequency of using traffic information, frequency of transition routes and age. Moreover, from the outcome in comparison with an existing model and prediction through undistributed data, the rate of combination model 8.7% illustrates the most predictable way in contrast with logit model 12.8%, and Individual Model of Decision Tree 13.8% which are existed. This reveals that the analysis of drivers' detour determination factors is valid to apply. Hence, overall study considers as a practical foundation to make effective detour strategies for increasing the utility of route networking and dispersion in the volume of traffic from now on.

A Study on the Effects of the Dine-out Franchise Headquarter's Management and Support Policies and Franchise Business Operator's Managerial Characteristics on the Bilateral Relationship and Franchise Store's Satisfaction (외식 프랜차이즈 가맹본부의 관리 및 지원정책과 가맹점 사업자의 경영자적 특성이 양자간 관계와 가맹점의 만족에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, SangYun;Jang, JaeNam
    • Journal of Distribution Research
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.81-101
    • /
    • 2012
  • A franchise system develops competitive products for a franchise store through the system established by the franchise head office. Therefore, it has advantages of expanding the marketing effect since the risk of failure is reduced for a founder and the franchise head office supports the overall sales, advertisement and promotional activities. Also, a franchise store has advantages of fulfilling necessary facilities and tools on advantageous terms, reducing expenses by purchasing in bulk, and getting a supply of products with stable qualities. However, aside from such advantages, franchise head offices are forcing franchise stores to make unnecessary investments in equipments and remodel the interior. Also, franchise business operators are being made to share the cost of marketing and multiple franchise stores are being approved within the same business district, and franchise business operators are suffering damages. Therefore, cases of shutting down a franchise store or not renewing the contract are frequent. From the position of a franchise head office, profits that are generated from franchise fees, interior remodeling fees and supplying facilities and materials will increase as the number of new franchise stores increases. However, franchise stores are faced with difficulties due to excessive competitions between similar types of businesses and the overlapping of business districts that come from increases in the number of stores, and they eventually end up shutting down. Therefore, in order for a franchise business operator and franchise head office to grow and develop continuously, opening new stores is important, but successfully renewing the contract by maintaining a relationship with an existing franchise business operator is desirable. In this aspect, a study that examines the elements that can affect the relationship between a franchise business operator and franchise head office is believed to be important for the development of the franchise industry and creating safe jobs for the public. With an emphasis on the relationship between a franchise head office and franchise store, this study attempted to examine the effect of characteristics of a franchise head office and franchise business operator on the bilateral relationship such as the faith and immersion, and wished to review the effects of such faith and immersion on the satisfaction of a franchise store, including an intention of renewing the contract. In particular, in the current situation of great uncertainties in the market, this study also wished to examine how uncertain market elements will affect the relationship between the characteristics of a franchise head office and franchise business operator, and the faith and immersion. The study revealed that among the characteristics of a franchise head office, the standardization management of a franchise head office hinders a franchise store's faith and immersion in a franchise head office. Also, a franchise head office's support was shown to increase a franchise store's faith and immersion. However, it was revealed that a franchise head office's regulation and incentive policies for a franchise store do not affect a franchise store's faith and immersion. Among characteristics of a franchise business operator, a franchise store's healthy financial status and entrepreneur spirits were shown to enhance the faith and immersion in a franchise head office. However, it was shown that excellent business abilities of a franchise business operator actually reduce the immersion for a franchise head office. Also, the faith and immersion in a franchise head office were shown to enhance the intention of renewing the contract by increasing the satisfaction for a franchise head office. In addition, it was originally believed that the effects of a franchise business operator's characteristics on the faith and immersion in a franchise head office will vary depending on the market uncertainty, but the effect of a franchise business operator's characteristics depending on the recognition of uncertainties was shown to be insignificant. Such findings show that instead of making a franchise store pay for equipment investments and marketing and obtaining profits by force, a franchise head office should actively support a franchise store so that a franchise store's business activities can be conducted well, which will bring profits to a franchise store and ultimately to a franchise head office. This is a more desirable direction for the development of both parties. Implications of such findings are summarized as follows. First, it was shown that a franchise head office's standardization management actually reduces a franchise store's faith and immersion. Therefore, it is believed that instead of conducting standardization managements for regulating and managing franchise stores, measures should be developed so that franchise stores can actually participate voluntarily. For this, a head office should put in efforts to develop and provide standardized manuals, and make sure that a self-review system takes root. Second, a franchise head office's incentives did not have significant effects on the faith and immersion, but the support was shown to be effective. Therefore, it can be seen that instead of taking post-measures for a franchise store, taking pre-measures of actively supporting is more effective in maintaining a franchise store. Third, among characteristics of a franchise head office, it was shown that a franchise store's healthy financial status increased the faith and immersion in a franchise head office. Therefore, when selecting a franchise business operator, instead of thoughtlessly opening up franchise stores for the profit of a head office, it is believed that reviewing a franchise business operator's financial firepower and credit status is necessary. As for academic implications, previous studies examined the relationship by focusing on the characteristics of a franchise head office and franchise store, but this study focused on the characteristics of a franchise business operator. Therefore, this study dealt with the importance of a franchise business operator's competence, and is significant because it revealed the fact that a franchise business operator's excellent commercialization ability can become an element that hinders the immersion in a franchise head office. It was originally believed that a franchise store's characteristics will have different effects on the faith and immersion depending on the market uncertainty, but it was shown that the effect of a franchise store's characteristics depending on the recognition of uncertainties was insignificant, and that is the limitation of this study.

  • PDF

The Mediating Effect of Learning Agility in the Relationship between Issue Leadership and Innovative Behavior (이슈 리더십이 혁신 행동에 미치는 영향 연구 : 학습 민첩성의 매개효과)

  • Park, Sung-ryeul;Chung, Byoung-gyu
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
    • /
    • v.4 no.3
    • /
    • pp.69-87
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study was conducted focusing on the innovative behavior necessary for the long-term survival of an organization in a business environment in which uncertainty and complexity are increasing. To this end, the relationship between issue leadership and innovative behavior of organizational members was investigated from the perspective of Signaling theory, Path-Goal theory and Job Demands-Resources theory. In addition, the mediating role of learning agility and sub-components of learning agility was empirically analyzed. For empirical analysis, a survey was conducted with a total of 252 team leaders and team members working in multinational companies (142 in Korea, 110 in the US). The results of this study are as follows. Issue leadership was analyzed to have a positive (+) effect on the innovative behavior of employees. Learning agility was found to play a mediating role between issue leadership and innovative behavior. On the other hand, the mediating effect was tested for each of the sub-components of learning agility, such as feedback seeking, information seeking, reflecting, experimenting, agility. As a result, all five sub-components were found to play a mediating role between issue leadership and innovative behavior. In particular, it was analyzed that the mediating effect of agility was the largest. Next, information seeking appeared to be large. Although there are some studies that have identified the mediating role of learning agility between issue leadership and innovative behavior, this study is considered to have academic implication as there are few cases of subdivided study. At the practical level, it is expected to provide implications for where to focus more when trying to improve an organization's learning agility and innovation behavior

The Effect of Attribute Alignability and Certainty on Consumer Preference (제품속성의 정렬 가능성과 확실성이 제품 선호도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Soo-Young;Song, Ju-Hun;Sohn, Young-Woo
    • Science of Emotion and Sensibility
    • /
    • v.11 no.2
    • /
    • pp.153-172
    • /
    • 2008
  • Products can maintain a high level of market share for many years by succeeding early in the development of a market. To overcome the benefit of pioneering a market, late entrants to the market can use differentiation strategies: developing novel attributes or enhancing preexisted attributes. In general, preexisted attributes are more memorable, but novel attributes can be weighted as heavily as preexisted attributes by contextual constraints. Based on the research of appraisal-congruent judgement, certainty appraisal dimension may affect the degree to which people engage in systematic or heuristic processing. This study examines the effects of alignability (the ease with which the attributes of one object can be aligned or mapped onto another object) of product attributes and certainty on consumer preferences for late entrants. Participants were induced to experience certainty and then completed a questionnaire. As predicted, participants induced certainty were likely to engage in heuristic processing, while participants induced uncertainty were likely to engage in systematic processing. This study provides an implication that companies should additionally consider consumers' feeling of certainty when launching a new brand.

  • PDF

Diachronic Network Analysis on Variable Factors for enhancing the Values of Apparel Industry in South Korea -Focused on Fashion Newspaper Articles- (한국 어패럴 산업의 가치 제고를 위한 변수 요인의 통시적 연결구조 분석 -패션 신문 기사를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Jang-Hyeon;Lee, Ji-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.21 no.2
    • /
    • pp.551-564
    • /
    • 2020
  • The fashion industry in Korea has grown into a core sector that contributes to the development of national industries, but it has shown negative growth due to the advent of a low-growth era. This study aims to explore core texts related to variable factors affecting the apparel industry in Korea (and the environmental change factors of apparel companies) by using network analysis from a diachronic point of view. In addition, we discuss the implications of enhancing the value of fashion industries in Korea based on articles in fashion newspapers over five years. The conclusion of this study is as follows. First, as a suggestion for political and economic aspects, the government should minimize the damage caused by political influence by presenting new policies, or by communicating about the practical aspects of geopolitical issues and changes linked to the fashion industry. Second, as a suggestion of socio-cultural aspects, it is necessary to reduce uncertainty about the future by establishing a strategic system through cooperation with institutions that can predict future directions. Third, as a suggestion for management changes in the apparel industry, apparel companies in Korea should recognize the importance of consciousness of promoting development for a better society from coexistence, rather than corporate profit.