• Journal of the Korean housing association
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.97-104
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• 2005

The purpose of this study is to understand changes of the population and family composition in apartment houses. The main contents of this study is to find the way of housing planning through the analysis of the population and family composition by the unit types. The population and family composition were studied by computer data base program to 11,000 residents of selection 4 apartments houses. The structure of the family types proved to be constant by the result of analyzing the 10 family types. If the family types of certain resident's groups are given, this study will be able to estimate population structure to them. The transition of the population and the family composition changes to the unit types proved to be constant by the time. The distribution of manhood and matured children is tend to change according to how large the size of house is, and to change the structure of family composition.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 한국컴퓨터정보학회 2023년도 제67차 동계학술대회논문집 31권1호
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• pp.161-163
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• 2023

본 논문은 K-지방소멸지수를 바탕으로 지역 성장에 초점을 두어 지방소멸 대응 방향성을 제시한다. 연령별 추계인구 데이터와 총 요소 생산성 데이터를 비교하여 청년층의 감소가 지역 성장에 미치는 영향을 보여준다. 이에 따라 연도별 청년이 가장 많이 유출되는 지역을 샘플링하여 전출 사유를 알아보고 지역별 차별화된 대응 방향성을 제시한다.

• Journal of Teachers' Pension
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• 제2권
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• pp.181-206
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• 2017

출산율 하락과 기대여명 증가에 따라 인구구조의 고령화가 급격히 진행되고 있다. 이에 따라 소득보장이나 건강보장과 같은 사회보장제도의 장기 재정 불안정과 관련된 사회적 우려가 높다. 여러 세대를 거쳐 사회보장제도를 안정적으로 유지하기 위해서는 제도의 장기적 재정 상태에 대한 정확한 전망이 요청된다. 재정 상태에 대한 정확한 진단은 장기 재정 안정화를 위한 가장 기본적인 전제 조건이며, 정확한 재정 상태에 대한 평가 없이 재정 안정화를 위한 사회적 합의를 도출하는 것은 가능하지 않다. 본 연구는 사학연금의 장기 재정 전망에 필요한 사망률 전망 방법을 검토함으로써 사학연금 장기 재정 전망 작업의 정확성과 신뢰성을 높이고자 하는 목적을 가지고 있다. 보다 구체적으로, 본 연구는 연앙인구 및 사망 건수 자료가 제한적인 동시에 단기 시계열 자료만이 존재하는 사학연금 데이터베이스의 특성을 반영한 사망률 전망 모형을 구축하고 있다. 사학연금 남성 사망률 전망과 관련하여 본 연구에서 제안하는 모형은 목표 집단의 사망력 패턴과 밀접히 연관된 준거 집단을 통합적으로 모형화하는 정합적 사망률 모형(coherent mortality model)이다. 반면 관측된 사망 건수가 매우 제한적인 관계로 사학연금 데이터베이스에 기초하여 사망률을 전망하기 쉽지 않은 여성 사망률의 경우 통계청 장래인구추계에서 전망된 성별 사망확률 격차가 사학연금에도 적용될 수 있다는 가정하에 사학연금 여성 사망률을 전망하는 방법을 제안하고 있다.

• Survey Research
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.65-90
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• 2002

The purpose of this study is to develope an appropriate method of the household projection in Korea. Given the data constraints, the headship rate method is selected. This method is known to be responsive to changes in demographic factors related to household formation. To project future headship rates, the method of net transition rates based on the average of two-census intervals was adopted for household heads ages 35 and over, while the log-linear formula was employed for those aged under 35. The future headship rate of Korean males shows a one-peak pattern with plateau, whereas that of Korean females marks a two-peak pattern. For a better projection of household in the future, one-person households should be treated more carefully, because they are mostly either young adults or the elderly whose activities of household formation and dissolution are very hard to forecast.

• International Area Studies Review
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.145-166
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• 2009

This paper uses 192 urban data in 1990-2005, and Carlino model, estimate urban agglomeration economies, that is urbanization economies. The results of estimation of urban agglomeration economies suggests that the h value of 145 urban bigger than 1, and h value of 47 urban smaller than 1, that is most of urban has the positive urbanization economies. But the regional disparity is serious, Eastern region's urban agglomeration is obvious, and North-eastern region's urban agglomeration economies is not obvious, appears urban disagglomeration economies. For analyzing the relation between urban agglomeration economies and urban scale, this paper tested the function of urban agglomeration economies. The results suggests that urban agglomeration economies and urban scale has not the inverse U-type function.

• Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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• 제50권4호
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• pp.511-524
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to provide policy recommendations for manpower planning by forecasting the supply and demand of Medical Technologists. Supply was estimated using an in-and-out movement method with a demographic method based on a baseline projection model. Demand was projected according to a demand-based method using the number of clinico-pathologic examinations taken for Medical Technologists. Over- or undersupply of Medical Technologists will depend on the productivity scenario and assumptions and ultimately on governmental policy direction. In other words, whether the production of Medical Technologists is higher or lower than the current level depends on the government policy to consider insurance finances. In this study, we assessed 'productivity scenario 3' based on the productivity as of 2012, when the government's policy direction was not considered. Based on the demand scenario using the ARIMA model, the supply of Medical Technologists is expected to be excessive. This oversupply accounts for less than 10% of the total and therefore should not be a big problem. However, given that the employment rate of Medical Technologists is 60%, it is necessary to consider policies to utilize the unemployed. These measures should expand the employment opportunities for the unemployed. To this end, it is necessary to strengthen the functions of laboratories in the public health center, to increase the quota of Medical Technologists, to assure their status, to establish a permanent inspection system for outpatient patients, and to expand the export of Medical Technologists overseas.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.77-99
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• 2012

This study aimed at developing a model for estimating fertility rates for Korea under some conditions. The model is expected to provide the basic information for establishing and evaluating the polices in prompt and adequate response to low fertility and population ageing. The model was established on the basis of experiences by some OECD countries in Europe, having experienced the fertility increase trend and being economically well-developed, because Korea has never experienced the steady increase in fertility rate since 1960. This study collected about 20 years' time series data for each of selected countries and applied to the regression model, which is called a 'panel analysis' to take into considerations both cross-sectional and longitudinal aspects of fertility change simultaneously. Simulation of the model for Korea and some panel countries showed a very small difference, less than 0.1, between the estimated rate and the observed rate for each year during 2006~2010. Thus, the model, as established in this study, is evaluated as accurate or well-fitted to a considerable extent.

• Proceedings of the ESK Conference
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• 대한인간공학회 1993년도 추계학술대회논문집
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• pp.33-37
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• 1993

근래 우리나라에서도 평균수명이 길어져 노동의욕이 있는 중고령자가 증가하는 한편, 출산율이저 하되어 젊은 근로자의 수가 감소되고 있다. 통계청의 인구통계과의 추계에 의하면 2000년에는 60세 이 상이 총인구에 점하는 비율이 10.7%, 65세 이상은 6.8%가 되고, 2020년에는 60세 이상이 19.5%, 65세 이 상도 12.5%에 도달한다는 것이다. 인구노령화로 인한 고령화 사회에 대한 준비를 서둘러야 할 때라고 생각된다. 또 고령화 사회로 되면 젊은 연령층의 경제적 부담이 증가되므로 중고령자의 노동인구를 이대 로 방치해 두는 것은 국가적으로나 사회복지적으로나 불경제라고 할 수 있다. 그런데, 문제가 되는 것은, 중고령자를 취업시키는 것이 오히려 사회의 생산성을 저하시키거나 경제적으로 불리하게 되어서는 안되는 것과 중고령노동자 자신의 안전을 확보해야 하는 것이다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해서는 고용에 있어 서 어떠한 점에서 중고령노동자에게 특징과 문제가 있는가를 분명히 할 필요가 있다. 고령자는 청년자 보다 노동능력이 떨어지는 특징과 문제가 있는가를 분명히 할 필요가 있다. 고령자는 청년자 보다 노동능력이 떨어지는 경향이 있지만 개인차도 크고 고령자 중에는 청년자의 기능에 비교해도 뒤떨어지지 않는 자도 있다. 연령만으로 노동능력을 판정하는 것은 적절한 방법이라고 할 수 없다. 문헌에 의하면 역연령(chornological age)이 25세의 경우, 생리적 연령은 23세에서 27세로 4년 차이가 있다고 한다. 이러한 생리적 연령의 차이는 역연령이 더해감에 따라서 점차 크게 되어 역연령이 45세에서는 12년, 80세 에서는 20년이나 된다는 것이다. 이것은 인간에 있어서 시간적 경과를 나타내는 역연령 이외에 신체적 기능연령(functional age)가 있다는 것을 의미하는 것이다. 한편, 생산현장에서는 자동화, 기계화가 진보되어 육체적인 노동이 경감된 결과, 중고령자라도 할 수 있는 작업이 많아지고 있다. 또, VDT (Visual Dislay Terminal) 작업과 같은 정보처리 작업의 수요가 증가하여 그 인재의 부족이 지적되고 있다. 따라서 중고령자의 기능을 조사하여 어떠한 작업에 적합한가를 판단하는 것이 중요한 과제로 되었다. 그러나 노동에는 많은 기능이 관여 하고, 그 내용에 따라서 요구되는 기능이 서로 다르기 때문에 노동적응능력의 기본적인 기능으로 보여지는 것에 좁혀서 작업능력의 연령증가 변화에 대하여다원적 평가를 하는 것이 실제적이라고 할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 인간이 가지고 있는 다수의 기능중에서 수지교 치성과 연령증가와의 관계를 조사한다. 만약 연령증가 만으로 수지교치성을 평가 할 수 없는 경우에는 어떠한 요인이 수지기민성의 변화에 영향을 미치는가를 검토한다.

• Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.5-18
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• 2017

Purpose: This study was conducted to suggest a method for financial projection of health insurance expenditures that reflects future changes in demographic structure. Methods: Using data associated with the number of patients and health insurance cost per patient, generalized linear models (GLM) were fitted with demographic explanatory variables. Models were constructed separately for individual medical departments, types of medical service, and types of public health insurance. Goodness-of-fit of most of the applied GLM models was quite satisfactory. By combining estimates of frequency and severity from the constructed models and results of the population projection, total annual health insurance expenditures were projected through year 2060. Results: Expenditures for medical departments associated with diseases that are more frequent in elderly peoples are expected to increase steeply, leading to considerable increases in overall health insurance expenditures. The suggested method can contribute to improvement of the accuracy of financial projection. Conclusion: The overall demands for medical service, medical personnel, and relevant facilities in the future are expected to increase as the proportion of elderly people increases. Application of a more reasonable estimation method reflecting changes in demographic structure will help develop health policies relevant to above mentioned resources.

• Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.25-30
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• 2008

Purpose: In this paper, we have analyzed the problems of the Oh's report which is used to the basic data for supply and demand of medical technicians and studied a proposal for improvement to control system and supply and demand of korean optometrists. Methods: We have analyzed errors of Oh's report including supply and demand for medical technicians and management policy, expecting number for future optician, inaccurate estimation by limited data (employment rate, retirement rate, mortality rate) and an incorrect method of measurement for future supply and demand. Results: Oh's report showed the 18% error for estimation of supply which exclude the irregular entrance students. The estimation of supply was calculated by graduation rate 62.6% (college and University of Technology are 78.9% and 85.98% respectively), employment rate 65.8% (the average employment between 2002 and 2007 is 73.96%) and retirement rate is 2.3% (the retirement of pharmacists is 1.3%) but it showed the significant differences to objective data. For estimate the suitable ratio of optometrists to the population, the ratio use of medical facilities by an age group was used, and suggested spectacle wearers 1,280 persons (populations 2,928 persons) per optometrist but the different from reference of Germany (4,706 persons), America (1,789 persons) and Korea (1,825 persons/an optometrist) are applied to estimation on supply. This report applied the low employment rate and argued that maintain the present situation, but claimed that utilize unemployment persons. The above result has induced double weighting effect on estimation of supply. Conclusions: To solve the related problems of supply and demand, we have to make a search for exact data and optimum application model, have to take an example of nation similar job category as Germany and the research result of the job satisfaction into consideration. After we get the integrated research result, we must carried out the policy with fairness and balance for the estimation of supply and demand. Therefore exact research is required prior to beginning policy establishment, government and related group have to make a clear long-term plan and permanent organization for medical technician to establish supply and demand of medical technician.