• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.98-120
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• 2012

The main objective of this study is to conduct subnational population projections of Korea based on a multiregional cohort-component method. This objective is accomplished by: (i) establishing a viable framework to implement the multiregional cohort-component method with reference to the Markov chain model and Rogers' multiregional population projection model; (ii) applying the established framework to subnational population projections of Korea, 2005~2030. The main results are twofold. First, the proposed method turns out to be highly valid in a methodological sense, which is seen from a high level of coincidence between the estimated and the observed. Second, the projection results turn out to be highly useful in the sense that interregional migration flow matrices are resulted for projection periods. The projected migration flows are expected to provide invaluable information for an understanding of future population change and for a formulation of policy alternatives. This study is strongly inspired by the multiregional perspective emphasizing the evolution of multiple regional populations interconnected by interregional migration flows rather than the overall national change.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.61-89
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• 2004

1990년 이후 중국 조선족 사회는 급격한 변화의 소용돌이에 휩싸여있다. 그 핵심에는 조선족 공동체의 총체적인 재구조화가 자리하고 있다. 조선족 집거지로부터 대규모의 이촌 현상이 나타나고 있으며 동북3성에 집중되어 있던 조선족은 전 중국으로 흩어지고 있다. 이러한 조선족의 이동은 조선족 공동체의 해체현상으로 이해되는 경향이 있다. 이 연구는 바로 인구이동이 조선족 사회와 공동체에 어떠한 영향을 주는지에 대한 물음에서 출발한다. 그리고 영향은 이동의 기원지인 농촌과 다양한 목표지의 현황과 조건, 이를 둘러싼 사회경제적 상황을 중심으로 다룬다. 이를 위해 사례연구를 실시하였으며, 필요한 자료는 선택된 마을의 방문과 현지에서의 심층면접을 통해 수집하였다. 연구의 결과는 조선족의 대규모, 원거리 이동이 조선족 공동체의 해체를 뜻하는 것은 아니라는 점을 명백히 보여준다. 인구유출로 도시 또는 조선족 중심지에서 떨어진 농촌 마을에서 공동체의 해체는 빠른 속도로 이루어진다. 그러나 조선족은 새로운 목표지에서는 새로운 유형의 집중현상을 보인다. 한마디로 조선족의 이동은 조선족 사회의 도시화의 경향과 함께, 보다 넓은 지역으로의 공동체의 분산과 공동체내에서의 높은 민족 집중성을 특징으로 전개되고 있다. 또한 조선족 도시 공동체는 거주지역의 격리보다는 민족성을 기초로 한 문화적 정체성에 대한 강조를 특징으로 한다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.42-79
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• 1998

There was a rapid population change accompanied with changes in population structure recently in Korea. The changes were nationwide though greater in rural, where the population decreased steeply, through the internal migration from rural to urban. There, in the structure of Gun's population, severely distorted features have been shown in the study. Also, the structure differ greatly by Gun. It indicated that the rural problems were much more serious than anticipated when analyzed generally. It tells us that we should consider the problems related with different population structure in developing the programs for the rural.

• Proceedings of the Population Association of Korea Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.171-189
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• 2007

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.71-78
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• 2020

Recently, as the issue of gentrification emerges, it becomes important to understand the dynamics of local commercial district, which plays the important role for facilitating the local economy and building the community in a city. This paper attempts to provide the framework for systemically analyzing and understanding the local commercial district. Then, this paper empirically analyzes the patterns of sales and flow of floating population by focusing on two representative local commercial districts in Seoul. In addition, the floating population data from telecommunication bases is further modeled with Markov chain for systemically understanding the local commercial districts. Finally, the transition patterns and consumption amounts of floating population are comprehensively analyzed for providing the implications on the evolutions of local commercial districts in a city. We expect that findings of our study could contribute to the economic growth of local commercial district, which could lead to the continuous development of city economy.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.907-914
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• 2015

Reduction in the number of students due to the low birth rate has notice very many changes in the national education policies. The purpose of this study is to propose a method for estimation of the number of students (the population) by age or grade promotion rate of progression rate to estimate the exact number of students (the population) by 2032. It was suggested the nth moving average proportional method and the weighted proportional moving average method as the method of population projections. It presents the means and standard deviations of the measurement errors of the suggested methods by Monte Carlo simulation. Measured in this study are predicted result was a phenomenon is estimated lower than the actual value.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.479-492
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• 2020

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of regional characteristics on population movement on the Seoul metropolitan areas. Method: To this end, 66 basic entities in the Seoul metropolitan area were divided into three regions by analyzing the demographic movement data from 2010 to 2016 and the factors for determining population movement within and between regions were identified by applying a stepwise regression technique. Result: The major analysis confirmed that the increase in the number of apartments in all areas of the Seoul metropolitan area, the increase in the number of single-family homes, the increase in the number of employees, the increase in manufacturers, the growth rate of knowledge, culture, and leisure industries, the increase rate of GRDP, and the opening of new subway stations. In particular, the growth rate of the number of apartments, the growth rate of the knowledge, culture and leisure industries, the increase rate of GRDP, and the opening of new subway stations played a positive role in increasing population inflow. Conclusion: The result showed that by region, the growth rate of knowledge, culture and leisure industries contributed greatly to the inflow of population in the first region, and that the opening of new subway stations and the increase of GRDPs were the main factors. The increase in the number of apartments and subway stations were the main factors in the three areas.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.107-120
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• 2001

This study is concerned with providing a reliable procedure of calibrating a set of places specific distance parameters and with applying it to U.S. inter-State migration flows between 1985 and 1900. It attempts to conform to recent advances in quantitative geography that are characterized by an integration of ESDA(exploratory spatial data analysis) and local statistics. ESDA aims to detect the spatial clustering and heterogeneity by visualizing and exploring spatial patterns. A local statistic is defined as a statistically processed value given to each location as opposed to a global statistic that only captures an average trend across a whole study region. Whereas a global distance parameter estimates an averaged level of the friction of distance, place-specific distance parameters calibrate spatially varying effects of distance. It is presented that a poisson regression with an adequately specified design matrix yields a set of either origin-or destination-specific distance parameters. A case study demonstrates that the proposed model is a reliable device of measuring a spatial dimension of migration, and that place-specific distance parameters are spatially heterogeneous as well as spatially clustered.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.86-103
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• 1989

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.91-103
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• 1990