• Title/Summary/Keyword: 인구분포 예측

Search Result 64, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

An Analysis Locational Value of the Commercial Facilities by the Internalization of Street (가로의 내부화에 따른 상가 입지가치 분석)

  • Kim, Jin-Sik;Kim, Whoi-Yul;Kim, Byeoung-Su;Ahn, Byung-Ju;Lee, Yun-Seon;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • 2007.11a
    • /
    • pp.876-879
    • /
    • 2007
  • Large scale composition facility gives in commerce and space structure effect. therefore, this study will estimating locational value of the commercial facilities by separating space analyze to the topological property, predict a pattern and distribution of passenger's routes through the space syntax on the basis of analysis about the topological property which quantitatively using a estimating tool. Moreover, this study should suggest some of present issues at the aspects of inside city plan and design fitting the internalization of street for propelling efficient the locational strategy.

  • PDF

Evaluation of Hazardous Zones by Evacuation Scenario under Disasters on Training Ships (실습선 재난 시 피난 시나리오 별 위험구역 평가)

  • SangJin Lim;YoonHo Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.30 no.2
    • /
    • pp.200-208
    • /
    • 2024
  • The occurrence a fire on a training ship with a large number of people on board can lead to severe casualties. Hence the Seafarers' Act and Safety Life At Sea(SOLAS) emphasizes the importance of the abandon ship drill. Therefore, in this study, the training ship of Mokpo National Maritime University, Segero, which has a large number of people on board, was selected as the target ship and the likelihood and severity of fire accidents on each deck were predicted through the preliminary hazard analysis(PHA) qualitative risk assessment. Additionally, assuming a fire in a high-risk area, a simulation of evacuation time and population density was performed to quantitatively predict the risk. The the total evacuation time was predicted to be the longest at 501s in the meal time scenario, in which the population distribution was concentrated in one area. Depending on the scenario, some decks had relatively high population densities of over 1.4pers/m2, preventing stagnation in the number of evacuees. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data to develop training scenarios for training ships by quantifying evacuation time and population density according to various evacuation scenarios, and the research can be expanded in the future through comparison of mathematical models and experimental values.

The Analysis of Relationship between Forest Fire Distribution and Topographic, Geographic, and Climatic Factors (산불 발생 분포와 지형, 지리, 기상 인자간의 관계 분석)

  • Kwak, Han-Bin;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Lee, Si-Young;Won, Myoung-Soo;Lee, Myoung-Bo;Koo, Kyo-Sang
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
    • /
    • 2008.06a
    • /
    • pp.465-470
    • /
    • 2008
  • 우리나라는 산림은 단순림이 많고 밀도가 높기 때문에 산불이 한번 발생하면 대형 산불로 확산될 우려가 크다. 이 때문에 산불 발생을 미리 예측하여 대응할 필요가 있다. 산불 발생예측을 위해서는 산불 발생에 영향을 미치는 인자와 산불 발생의 관계를 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 본 연구는 1997년부터 2006년까지 발생한 전국에서 발생한 산불의 point data를 이용하였다. 산불 발생 지점의 지형인자와 지리인자, 그리고 산불 발생 당시의 기상인자로 DB를 구축하고 산불 발생과의 관계를 구명하였다. 지형인자 분석은 고도, 방위, 경사에 따른 산불 발생 빈도를 분석하였고, 그 상관관계를 분석하였다. 지리인자 분석에서는 인구밀도, 산불 발생지역의 접근성(도로에 따른 접근성, 대도시와의 거리에 따른 접근성)에 대한 산불 발생의 상관관계를 분석하였다. 기상인자와 산불 발생의 관계는 전국 76개소에서 관측된 온습도 데이터를 보간한 자료와 산불 발생과의 관계를 분석하였다. 기상인자 분석은 산불이 가장 빈번하게 발생하는 3월 하순, 4월 초순, 4월 중순 자료를 평균하여 산불 발생 빈도와의 상관관계를 분석하고 산불 발생 위험지역을 도출하였다. 본 연구를 통해서 각 인자와 산불 발생의 관계를 분석해보았다. 하지만 각 인자간의 관계를 분석하지 못한 것이 한계점이라고 할 수 있다. 차후 연구에서는 각 인자간의 관련성을 분석하고 산불 발생의 원인과 인자간의 구체적인 인과관계를 밝히는 것도 필요할 것으로 보인다.

  • PDF

A Study on Construction policy for Seoul Metropolitan Railway (서울 도시철도 건설방향에 대한 연구)

  • Woo, Nam-Jik;Lee, Won-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
    • /
    • v.8 no.6
    • /
    • pp.67-71
    • /
    • 2008
  • This study is to retest of seoul traffic, all sorts of statistical data, the present condition of urban railway that local government and all sorts of research institution had researched. Even though, or something else with population and regional industrial distribution of seoul with worker and the present condition of the registrated cars and the change of increase, we have predicted the medium term and long-range solution. we have proposed the alternative plan about both of the problem that is the developmental construction direction of seoul urban railway and the resource insurance for urban railway construction.

Water Quality Assessment in Hwangryong River Basin using GIS (GIS를 이용한 황룡강 유역의 수질오염평가)

  • 김철;김석규
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
    • /
    • 1999.12a
    • /
    • pp.39-43
    • /
    • 1999
  • 유역의 수질오염 평가는 GIS의 이용으로 더욱 발달되었는데 이 방법에서는 일반적으로 이용 할 수 있는 자료 즉, 소유역 구분도 및 하천망도, DEM, 강우자료, 유량측정지점 및 측정자료, 오염부하량 원단위자료, 수질측정자료, 토지이용자료, 점오염원(축산농가, 인구, 산업체)자료 등을 사용하여 유역에 대한 연간 평균 오염부하량과 오염농도를 계산할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 장성과 광주 일부분을 유역으로 하는 황룡강 유역에 대해 GIS를 이용하여 수질오염을 평가하였다. 점오염원의 오염부하량은 수계 내에서 발생하는 점오염원의 위치를 기준으로 원단위를 적용하여 오염부하량을 구하였다 비점오염원 농도는 연평균 오염부하량을 총연간 누적유량으로 나눔으로써 계산하였다. 유역의 연평균 오염부하량에 대한 공간분포 그리드를 만들기 위해 각각의 그리드 셀에 대해 오염농도와 유출량을 곱한 값을 하류방향으로 누적하여 계산하였다. 이와 같은 방법을 사용하여 대상 유역에 대한 비점오염원 수질 농도의 예측치를 계산하였며, 이 예측치와 실측치를 비교 분석함으로서 개발된 모형을 검증하였다. 대상유역의 자료를 사용하여 황룡강 유역에 대한 개략적인 수질오염을 평가한 결과 BOD 유달율은 약 20%정도로 나타났다.

  • PDF

Variation and Forecast of Rural Population in Korea: 1960-1985 (농촌인구(農村人口)의 변화(變化)와 예측(豫測))

  • Kwon, Yong Duk;Choi, Kyu Seob
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
    • /
    • v.8
    • /
    • pp.129-138
    • /
    • 1990
  • This study investigated the relationship between the cutflow of rural population and agricultural policy by using time series method. For the analytical tools, decomposition time series methods and regression technique were employed in computing seasonal fluctuation and cyclical fluctuation of population migration. Also, this study predicted farmhouse, rural population till the 2000's by means of the mathematical methods. The analytical forms employed in forecasting farmhouse, rural population were Exponential curve, Gompertz curve and Transcendental form. The major findings of this study were identified as follows: 1) Rural population and farmhouse population began to decrease from 1965 and hastily went down since 1975. Rural population which accounted for 36.4 percent, 35.6 percent of national population respectively in 1960 diminished about two times: 17.5 percent, 17.1 percent respectively. 2) The rapid decreasing of the rural population was caused because of the outflow of rural people to the urban regions. Of course, that was also caused from the natural decreases but the main reason was heavily affected more the former than the latter. In the outflowing course shaped from rural to the urban regions, rural people concentrated on such metropolis as Seoul, Pusan, Keanggi. But these trends were diminishing slowly. On the other hand, compared with that of the 1970's the migration to Keanggi was still increasing in the 1980's. That is, people altered the way of migration from the migration to Seoul, Pusan to the migration to the out-skirts of Seoul. 3) The seasonal fluctuation index of population migration has gone down since the June which the request of agricultural labor force increases and has turned to be greatly wanted in the March as result of decomposition time series method. As result of cyclical analysis, the cyclical patterns of migration have greatly 7 cycle. 4) As result of forecasting the rural and farmhouse population, rural and farmhouse population in the 2000 will be about 9,655(thousand/people) and 4,429(thousand/people) respectively. Thus, it is important to analyze the probloms that rural and farmhouse population will decrease or increase by the degree. But fairly defining the agricultural into a industry that supply the food, this problem - how much our nation need the rural and farmhouse population - is greatly significant too. Therefore, the basic problems of the agricultural including the outflows of rural people are the earning differentials between rural and urban regions. And we should regard the problems of the gap of relative incomes between rural and urban regions as the main task of the agricultural policy and treat the agricultural policy in the viewpoint of developing economic equilibrium than efficiency by using actively the natural resources of the rural regions.

  • PDF

A Study on the Construction of 3D Noisemap for Busan's Road Traffic Noise (부산시 도로교통소음의 3차원 소음지도제작에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hwa-Il;Han, Kyoung-Min
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
    • /
    • v.6 no.1
    • /
    • pp.111-132
    • /
    • 2007
  • The traffic noise of Busan, the second largest city in Korea, is polluting the area. Noise map is a map that shows data on an existing or predicted noise condition in terms of a noise indicator, breaches of a limit value, the number of dwellings exposed to certain values of a noise indicator in a certain area, or on cost-benefit ratios or other economic data on mitigation methods or scenarios with Geographic Information System. With noise map, the effect of traffic noise and the efficiency of city development plan are exactly estimated. So making systematic counteroffer is possible with it. This study is aimed to the construction of basis for noise map construction method for domestic use and the area focus is Busan.

  • PDF

Spatial Equality of Firefighting Service in Daejeon Metropolitan City (대전시 소방서비스의 공간적 형평성)

  • An, Yeoung-Ung;Leem, Yountaik;Lee, Sang Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.20 no.3
    • /
    • pp.560-571
    • /
    • 2020
  • Essential urban services that protect citizens' lives and property such as firefighting, disaster and crime prevention, should be provided equally to all citizens regardless of their location, personal status, and income. This paper analyzes the equality of firefighting services in spatial and social perspective in Daejeon Metropolitan City. For this the accessibility of fire service was analyzed for all settlements in the city. In addition, the distribution status of low-income class and forecasted income each region were compared to analyze whether the area where fire fighting service in 5 minutes was related to the distribution of income class. According to the analysis, the area where fire service can be provided within 5 minutes was 46.2% of Daejeon, and 98.0% of the population lived in this area. The proportion of old-age pensioners living in the area where fire service can't be provided within 5 minutes was 52.7%, reise than the average of 7.14% in Daejeon. In addition, in areas where the provision of firefighting services exceeds five minutes, the forecasted income tends to be lower in areas where service arrival is delayed. Therefore, it can be said that the economically vulnerable people living in the outskirts of Daejeon are not provided with equal urban services, and policy consideration is required accordingly.

Foundmental Study of Prediction of Natural Disaster Using the Aerial Photo Interpretation (항공사진판독에 의한 자연재해예측을 위한 기초적 연구)

  • Kang, In-Joon;Kwak, Jae-Ha;Jung, Jae-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.10 no.2
    • /
    • pp.57-62
    • /
    • 1992
  • As population is increased, land use types are changed mountainous areas from flatland in Korea. Because natural disaster as landslides occur of life, property, and environmental damage, prediction of landslides have become increasingly important. We focus on the issue for assessment of landslides, not slope stability analysis for a simple slope site. In this study, we could know the correlations of mean, standard deviation for brightness value of imagery by aerial photo scanning. The range of brightness values and standard deviation of landslide area is 35~65 and tend to increment of value, in the every years. When evaluating large regions with past occurrence of landslides, it is possible to search for correlation of site conditions such as degree of slope, soil characteristics, vegetative cover, and rainfall conditions in aerial photo interpretation data.

  • PDF

Water shortage evaluation of the future An-seong river basins considering the climate change (기후변화를 고려한 미래 안성천 유역의 물 부족 평가)

  • Lee, Dae-Wung;Kim, Jeong-Wook;Hong, Seung-Jin;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
    • /
    • 2015.11a
    • /
    • pp.189-190
    • /
    • 2015
  • 전 세계는 지난 135년간(1880~2014년) 지구온난화에 따른 빈번해진 이상기후로 평균 기온은 $0.85^{\circ}C$ 상승하였으며 이로 인해 강우강도, 강우량이 증가하고 있다. 이처럼 기후변화는 수문현상에 많은 영향을 미쳐 물 순환 과정의 정확한 파악을 더욱 어렵게 하고 있으며 안정적인 물 공급을 위한 수자원계획 수립에 불확실성을 증대 시키고 있기 때문에 정확한 물 수요 예측이 필요한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 한반도 중서부에 위치한 안성천을 대상으로 준 분포 강우-유출 모형인 SLURP모형에 기후변화 RCP8.5 시나리오를 적용하여 기후변화에 따른 안성천의 유출량을 산정하였다. 정확한 물 수요 예측을 위해 K-Weap(통합수자원평가계획모형)모형을 통해 유역별 네트워크 및 시나리오를 구성하고, 용수이용량(생활, 공업, 농업)의 과거자료를 선형예측함수식을 통해 장래 추정량을 생성 하였다. 이처럼 세분화된 자료를 통한 물 수지 분석 결과, 안성천 유역은 인구 증가, 급격한 도시화로 인한 용수 이용량 증가 그리고 기후변화에 따른 지구온난화로 인해 농업용수는 점차적으로 물 부족이 감소하고 있지만, 생활, 공업용수 이용량에 대한 물 부족량이 증가하고 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 본 연구에서는 물 부족을 해소할 수 있는 방안을 제시하고자 2가지의 대안을 구성해보았으며, 먼 미래의 물 부족시대에 대비할 수 있는 기초적인 자료로 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

  • PDF