• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.1-29
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• 1994

재무관리의 모든 영역을 완벽하게 이해하기 위하여는 기업재무관리와 투자론을 비롯하여 금융산업 전체에 대한 연역적 방법에 의한 이론의 정립과 실증분석을 통한 이론의 정립이 관건이라 할 수 있다. 이 논문에서는 실증 분석을 수행함에 있어 우리나라에서 활발하게 논의가 진행되지 않는 시계열분석의 영역을 살펴보았다. 그것은 이와 같은 분야를 천착해 봄으로써 이 분야가 재무관리에 대한 통찰력과 현실 적합성의 판단력을 배양하는데 큰 공헌을 할 수 있으리라는 믿음 때문이다. 이 논의를 통하여 시계열 분석에 대한 활발한 연구가 진행되기를 기대하고 있다. 시계열 확률과정에 대한 재무관리이론을 연역적으로 도출하기는 용이하지 않다. 시계열 분석에서 제시되는 여러 방법론을 재무관리의 시계열에 적용하여 그 시계열의 성질과 특성을 파악하면 그것이 그대로 현실에 적용될 수 있을 것이다. 이러한 연구의 결과는 어떤 형태로든 연역적 방법에 의한 이론의 정립에 깊은 영향을 미칠 것이다. 뿐만 아니라 연속시간의 틀과 이시적(異時的) 양태하(樣態下)에서 많은 재무관리 모형들이 개발되고 있으며, 동태적 상황을 해명하는 의도에서 이 모형들이 연구되고 있는 만큼 시계열 분석은 이 분야에 직접적으로 이용될 수 있다. 시계열 분석에서 제시된 많은 모형들이 재무관리의 실증적 현상을 설명하는데 효과적으로 활용될 수 있다. 뿐만 아니라 현재 연역적으로 개발된 모형들이 설명할 수 없는 부분을 시계열 분석이 직접적으로 해명할 수 있는 능력을 확보하고 있음도 제시되었다. 증권의 현가모형(現價模型), 이자율의 기간구조, 효율적 시장가설도 주가의 변동성 등은 시계열 분석의 다양한 기법을 사용하여 검증되어야 하며, 이 경우 특히 분산의 추정방법을 여러 측면에서 개발해 야 할 것이다. 시계열 분석에서는 두개 또는 그 이상의 기법을 하나로 통합하는 방법이 있을 수 있다. ARIMA와 ARCH가 결합되는 것을 본 바 있다. 구조적(構造的) 변화(變化)(structural change)모형(模型)과 ARCH의 결합도 가능하다. 다른 분야로서는 변동성(變動性)에 관한 연구이다. 변동성(變動性)에 관한 연구는 variance bounds test에 한정된 감이 있으나 정보와 변동성의 관계가 중요시되고 있는 만큼 정보집합과 시계열 분석 기법의 결합은 변동성의 연구에 새로운 지평을 열어줄 것으로 보인다. 따라서 정보집합의 형성에 따라 새로운 추정방법이 개발될 여지가 풍부하다.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.1-26
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• 2013

The objectives of this paper are to analyze the effect of government R&D expenditure on employment in the Korean manufacturing sector in which employment is rapidly declining. According to the results of our empirical analysis, government R&D expenditure decreases the level of employment in Korean manufacturing sector in short term period, but it has positive effect on employment by compensation effect in the middle and long term period. Second, the effect of private R&D expenditure on job creation is three times larger than that of government R&D expenditure. Third, costs of labor and capital has negative effect on employment. This study is believed to help understanding the relation between R&D expenditure and employment, and providing policy implications of how to plan and manage government R&D expenditure as a tool of job creation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.191-201
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• 2010

The breakwaters are designed by considering the cost optimization because a human risk is seldom considered. Most breakwaters, however, were constructed without considering the cost optimization. In this study, the optimum return period, target failure probability and the partial safety factors were evaluated by applying the cost optimization to the rubble mound breakwaters in Korea. The applied method was developed by Hans F. Burcharth and John D. Sorensen in relation to the PIANC Working Group 47. The optimum return period was determined as 50 years in many cases and was found as 100 years in the case of high real interest rate. Target failure probability was suggested by using the probabilities of failure corresponding to the optimum return period and those of reliability analysis of existing structures. The final target failure probability is about 60% for the initial limit state of the national design standard and then the overall safety factor is calculated as 1.09. It is required that the nominal diameter and weight of armor are respectively 9% and 30% larger than those of the existing design method. Moreover, partial safety factors considering the cost optimization were compared with those calculated by Level 2 analysis and a fairly good agreement was found between the two methods especially the failure probability less than 40%.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.19-43
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• 2016

This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.