• Title/Summary/Keyword: 이익 예측능력

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The Effect of Managerial Ability on Analysts' Earnings Forecast (경영자 능력이 재무분석가 이익예측 정보에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Bo-Young
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.213-227
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the effects of managerial ability on information asymmetry. We use analyst forecast errors as a proxy for information asymmetry, because analysts are referred to as efficient users using firm-level data. The sample consists of 2,246 non-banking firm-years listed in Korea Stock Exchange(KOSPI) during the period 2000 to 2013. We measure managerial ability using DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) following Demerjian et al.(2012). Using those measures, we examines the effects of managerial ability on analysts' earnings forecast errors and analysts' earnings forecast bias. The results of this study are as follows. First, we find that managerial ability are positively associated with analysts' earnings forecast accuracy. Second, we show that the firms with higher managerial ability tend to have lower the optimistic errors in analysts' earnings forecasts. This study could be useful for outside stakeholders to understand the importance of managerial ability.

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K-IFRS Reconciliations and Predicting Future Earnings (K-IFRS 도입 시점의 전환조정이 이후 기간의 미래이익 예측력에 미치는 영향)

  • Ji, Sang-Hyun;Kwak, Young-Min
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.12
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    • pp.283-291
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    • 2017
  • This Study analyzes the predictability of accounting information from mandatory K-IFRS adoption using the K-IFRS reconciliations information. We use the sample of 2,557 firm-year Korea listed companies belonging to non-financial corporate sector during 2010-2016. Specifically, we examine whether K-IFS reconciliation would improve or reduce the predicting power for future earnings after K-IFRS adoption. The results of empirical analyses show that reconciliation information from discretionary judgement tend to reduce the predicting power of K-IFRS based accounting earnings for future earnings. This result indicates that managers are likely to use the adjustments process to reconcile K-GAAP accounting numbers with corresponding K-IFRS as means to realize the various private utility. This study is expected to provide useful information by suggesting the need for more rigid screening schemes for the K-IFRS reconciliation process and also for adequate measures to be taken to ensure that the interests of the outside investors are properly protected.

The effect of managerial ability on income smoothing (경영자 능력이 이익유연화에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Eun-Ju
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.157-166
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    • 2020
  • Firms perform various actions that affect management performance measurement by managing the volatility and capital cost of reported income through income smoothing. This study attempted to analyze with a focus on the relationship between managerial competence and income smoothing. Therefore, this study attempted to analyze and focus on the relationship between managerial competency and profit softening using a measure of managerial competency presented in Demerjian et al. (2012). The results of the analysis are as follows. It was confirmed that there was a significant positive relationship between manager ability and income smoothing at the 1% level. When managers make income, it can be interpreted that managers with superior ability can make profits better by accurately predicting the future. It is the same result as the expectation of this study that managers with excellent ability have high incentives to soften profits by reducing profit volatility through more accurate forecasting. Therefore, this study empirically analyzed that managers with excellent abilities are more effective in implementing income smoothing strategies.

The Effect of Management Forecast Precision on CEO Compensation-Accounting Performance (경영자 이익예측 정확성이 성과-보상에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Eun-Ju;Sim, Won-Mi;Kim, Jeong-Kyo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.10
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    • pp.125-132
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of managerial predictive accuracy on managerial performance-compensation. In this study, we compared managerial performance with managerial performance, And to analyze the relationship between manager compensation and manager compensation using managerial profit prediction accuracy. As a result of this study, there is a significant positive relationship between profit prediction accuracy and manager compensation, which can be interpreted as a result of manager's ability to compensate manager's ability to predict the future well. In this paper, we propose a new methodology that can be used to analyze the effects of managerial compensation on managerial compensation. This is because there is a difference in that it is proved to be a factor. Therefore, it is important to note that the prediction of the future of the company also identifies the additional determinants that affect manager compensation contracts with the key managerial capabilities.

A Comparison of Earnings Quality Between KOSPI Firms and KOSDAQ Firms (상장기업과 코스닥기업의 회계이익의 질 비교)

  • Moon, Hyun-Ju
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.129-141
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed and compared the accounting earnings quality after the adoption of K-IFRS, targeting the stock exchange-listed firms (KOSPI, KOSDAQ). The analysis first revealed that KOSPI had higher quality accruals, and better persistence and predictability of the reported earnings and cash flows, compared to KOSDAQ. Second, in both KOSPI and KOSDAQ, the predictability of future cash flow showed that the accounting earnings was better than the cash flows. Third, for the persistence and predictability of earnings associated with the degree of accruals, in KOSPI and KOSDAQ both all, groups with better accruals quality had greater persistence and predictability of earnings, and a better future cash flow predictability of accounting earnings.

The Impacts of Managers' Earning Forecast Information on Manager Compensation. -Focused on Accounting Conservatism- (경영자의 이익예측정보가 경영자 보상에 미치는 영향 -회계보수주의를 중심으로-)

  • Jeon, MiJin;Sim, Weon-Mi
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.393-400
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    • 2022
  • In a situation where the company handles accounting conservatively, the management's earnings forecasting information will be more conservative, and the conservativeness of this earnings forecasting information will have a differential effect in evaluating the performance of managers and paying compensation. This study aims to examine how the level of corporate accounting conservatism affects the forecast information of managers and how this affects the compensation of managers. This study establishes a hypothesis on the effect of the level of accounting conservatism on the earnings forecasting information and compensation of managers, and examines the relationship between managerial profit forecasting information & manager compensation according of conservatism in corporate accounting that can vary depending on the manager's disposition. As a result of the analysis, conservative managers are also conservative in earnings forecasting disclosure, and when corporate managers are highly conservative, they show their ability by making earnings forecasts disclosures more frequently and more accurately than corporate managers with low conservatism. It will help reduce the forecasting errors of stakeholders. Therefore, it is expected that this will play an important role in judging the manager's ability and determining compensation. Therefore, when a company handles accounting conservatively, management's earnings forecasts are also measured conservatively, which is expected to provide useful information on the basis and form of management's compensation to stakeholders.

The Effect of Management Forecast Precision on CEO Compensation -Focusing on Bad news Firm- (악재를 경험한 기업의 경영자 이익예측 정확성이 경영자 보상에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Eun-Ju;Kim, Ha-Eun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzes the effect of the accuracy of future management performance, which managers voluntarily announce in the previous year's disclosure, on managers compensation. In the case of a company that disclosed the bad news in the previous year, the ability to predict uncertain future will be more important, and expects executives with better predictability to receive more compensation. The results of this study show that there is a significant negative(-) relationship between the accuracy of the manager's earnings forecast and the performance - compensation of the firms that disclosed the bad news in the previous year. The accuracy of the manager's disclosure is important, and it is confirmed that the manager's compensation increases as the incentive of the manager's effort to reduce future uncertainty. The results of this study are as follows: there is a positive relationship between the managerial performance and the managerial competence of managers. It is important to note that there is a difference and that we have identified additional determinants of the manager compensation contract.

Does the Geography Matter for Analysts' Forecasting Abilities and Stock Price Impacts? (기업 본사 소재지에 따른 애널리스트의 이익 예측능력 및 주가영향력 차이가 존재하는가?)

  • Kim, Dong-Soon;Eum, Seung-Sub
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2008
  • We empirically examined the forecasting abilities of analysts in the Korean stock market with regard to their earnings estimates, and the impacts of their reports on stock prices. Further, we also examine if there is any difference in analysts' forecasting accuracy and stock prices impacts depending upon the geographical distance between analysts and companies they follow. We found the following interesting empirical results. First, analysts have tendency to overestimate sales, operating income, and net income, consistent with the previous literature. Second, the degree of overestimation depends upon the geography of companies. That is, it is smaller for companies headquartered in Seoul than companies in local provinces. Third, analysts' earnings estimates are also more accurate for companies located in Seoul. So, we conjecture that analysts have easier access to the information for the companies. Fourth, when analysts downgrade target prices, companies in Seoul are less negatively affected than those in local provinces. Even when analysts revise downward stock recommendations, stock prices of companies in Seoul go up. Overall, analysts' price impacts are more favorable for Seoul-located companies. Last, but not least, when foreign ownership is higher, investors react less negatively to downward revisions of stock recommendation, but react more negatively to downward revisions of target prices.

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Kinetic Studies of Nucleophilic Substitution Reaction of para-Substituted Benzoyl Compounds with Pyridines (파라치환 벤조일화합물과 피리딘의 친핵성치환반응에 대한 속도론적 연구)

  • Jeong Wha Kim;Tae Sup Uhm;Ik Choon Lee;In Sun Koo
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.15-22
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    • 1985
  • Kinetic studies of nucleophilic substitution reaction of substituted benzoyl cyanides and benzoyl chlorides with pyridines were conducted at 25$^{\circ}C$ in pure acetone solvent. Results showed that (ⅰ) magnitudes of $_{\rho}_S$, $_{\rho}_N$ and ${\beta}$ associated with a change of substituent in the nucleophile indicate relatively advanced bond-formation in the transition state, (ⅱ) the potential energy surface model is able to predict the reaction mechanism, but it is unable to predict the transition state variation to a more product-like transition state, where bond-formation is much more progressed than bond breaking, upon changing the leaving group to that with better leaving ability (ⅲ) the quantum mechanical model predicted the product-like transition state and slightly better leaving ability of CN- as compared with Cl-.

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Estimation Model for Freight of Container Ships using Deep Learning Method (딥러닝 기법을 활용한 컨테이너선 운임 예측 모델)

  • Kim, Donggyun;Choi, Jung-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.574-583
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    • 2021
  • Predicting shipping markets is an important issue. Such predictions form the basis for decisions on investment methods, fleet formation methods, freight rates, etc., which greatly affect the profits and survival of a company. To this end, in this study, we propose a shipping freight rate prediction model for container ships using gated recurrent units (GRUs) and long short-term memory structure. The target of our freight rate prediction is the China Container Freight Index (CCFI), and CCFI data from March 2003 to May 2020 were used for training. The CCFI after June 2020 was first predicted according to each model and then compared and analyzed with the actual CCFI. For the experimental model, a total of six models were designed according to the hyperparameter settings. Additionally, the ARIMA model was included in the experiment for performance comparison with the traditional analysis method. The optimal model was selected based on two evaluation methods. The first evaluation method selects the model with the smallest average value of the root mean square error (RMSE) obtained by repeating each model 10 times. The second method selects the model with the lowest RMSE in all experiments. The experimental results revealed not only the improved accuracy of the deep learning model compared to the traditional time series prediction model, ARIMA, but also the contribution in enhancing the risk management ability of freight fluctuations through deep learning models. On the contrary, in the event of sudden changes in freight owing to the effects of external factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the accuracy of the forecasting model reduced. The GRU1 model recorded the lowest RMSE (69.55, 49.35) in both evaluation methods, and it was selected as the optimal model.