• Title/Summary/Keyword: 의사결정나무 분석

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Weighted Hot-Deck Imputation in Farm and Fishery Household Economy Surveys (농어가경제조사에서 가중핫덱 무응답 대체법의 활용)

  • Kim Kyu-Seong;Lee Kee-Jae;Kim Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.311-328
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    • 2005
  • This paper deals with a treatment of nonresponse in farm and fishery household economy surveys in Korea. Since the samples in two surveys were selected by stratified multi-stage sampling and weighted sample means has been used to estimate the population means, we choose a weighted hot-deck imputation method as an appropriate method for two surveys. We investigate the procedure of the weighted hot-deck as well as an adjusted jackknife method for variance estimation. Through an empirical study we found that the method worked very well in both mean and variance estimation in two surveys. In addition, we presented a procedure of forming imputation class and formed four imputation classes for each survey and then compared them with analysis. As a result, we presented two most efficient imputation classes for two surveys.

Binary Forecast of Asian Dust Days over South Korea in the Winter Season (남한지역 겨울철 황사출현일수에 대한 범주 예측모형 개발)

  • Sohn, Keon-Tae;Lee, Hyo-Jin;Kim, Seung-Bum
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.535-546
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    • 2011
  • This study develops statistical models for the binary forecast of Asian dust days over South Korea in the winter season. For this study, we used three kinds of data; the rst one is the observed Asian dust days for a period of 31 years (1980 to 2010) as target values, the second one is four meteorological factors(near surface temperature, precipitation, snowfall, ground wind speed) in the source regions of Asian dust based on the NCEP reanalysis data and the third one is the large-scale climate indices. Four kinds of statistical models(multiple regression models, logistic regression models, decision trees, and support vector machines) are applied and compared based on skill scores(hit rate, probability of detection and false alarm rate).

Research on the R&D Support Plan for Disabled Enterprise (장애인기업의 연구개발 지원 방안 연구)

  • Yun, Choon-Sik;Ko, Eun-Yung;Choe, Yoowha
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.317-325
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the current status and R&D activities of disabled enterprise, and to find ways to support R&D. Through this study, the company's demand for R&D and the characteristics of companies with active R&D activities were derived, and the research and development support plan was proposed by integrating them. As a result of comparing the location quotient (LQ) of small and medium-sized businesses and disabled enterprise by industry, the number of workers with disabilities showed great specialization by business type. R&D was active in companies with sales of over 2 billion won in four industries including manufacturing. As a result of the research, R&D support for disabled enterprise needs to be supported by categorizing them into field-hardened technology-oriented and innovative technology-oriented, depending on the type of business and the size of the company.

Development of Predictive Model of Social Activity for the Elderly in Korea using CRT Algorithm (CRT 알고리즘을 이용한 우리나라 노인의 사회활동 영향요인 예측 모형 개발)

  • Byeon, Haewon
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.9 no.10
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    • pp.243-248
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    • 2018
  • The social activities of the elderly are important in successfully achieving aging by providing opportunities for social interaction to enhance life satisfaction. The purpose of this study is to identify the related factors of the elderly social activities and build a statistical classification model to predict social activities. Subjects were 1,864 elderly people (829 males, 1,035 females) who completed the community health survey in 2015. Outcome variables were defined as the experience of social activity during the past month(yes, no). The prediction model was constructed using decision tree model based on Classification and Regression Trees (CRT) algorithm. The results of this study were subjective health, frequency of meeting with neighbors, frequency of meeting with relatives, and living with spouse were significant variables of social participation. The most prevalent predictor was the subjective health level. In order to prepare for the successful aging of the super aged society based on the results of this study, social attention and support for the social activities of the elderly are required.

An Analysis of Ordinary Mail Service Quality Attributes using Kano Model and Decision Tree Model (카노모형에서 의사결정나무모형을 이용한 통상우편서비스 품질속성 분석)

  • Choi, Hyeon Deok;Riew, Moon Charn
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.883-895
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: The demand for ordinary mail services supplied by 'Korea POST' is decreasing due to the opening of mail service market and the growth of alternative communication media such as e-mail and SNS. To overcome this situation it is urgent to introduce new services that can be able to appeal customers and to improve existing services. Methods: A field survey is conducted to corporate customers who send ordinary mails and individual customers who receive these mails, respectively. Quality attributes of ordinary mail services are classified by two-dimensional perspectives in terms of Kano model. Decision tree model is utilized for classifying the quality attributes. Comparative analyses are done whether there are perceived differences on each quality attributes between corporate customers and individual customers. Results: Quality attributes such as 'discount postal charges', 'sending small packages by simply dropping it into a mail box', 'sending a mail of any appearance', 'delivering a mail anywhere', and 'receiving a mail at a preferred time where a customer is located ' are classified differently according to some market segments, while most of the quality attributes are classified as attractive or one-dimensional. Conclusion: Decision tree model has been found to be most effective to classify quality attributes for each market segment especially when trying to classify quality attributes belonging to 'gray areas'. Based on the perceived differences on quality attributes among customers, strategic implications are suggested to obtain potential customers and to have competitive advantages.

An Optimized Combination of π-fuzzy Logic and Support Vector Machine for Stock Market Prediction (주식 시장 예측을 위한 π-퍼지 논리와 SVM의 최적 결합)

  • Dao, Tuanhung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.43-58
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    • 2014
  • As the use of trading systems has increased rapidly, many researchers have become interested in developing effective stock market prediction models using artificial intelligence techniques. Stock market prediction involves multifaceted interactions between market-controlling factors and unknown random processes. A successful stock prediction model achieves the most accurate result from minimum input data with the least complex model. In this research, we develop a combination model of ${\pi}$-fuzzy logic and support vector machine (SVM) models, using a genetic algorithm to optimize the parameters of the SVM and ${\pi}$-fuzzy functions, as well as feature subset selection to improve the performance of stock market prediction. To evaluate the performance of our proposed model, we compare the performance of our model to other comparative models, including the logistic regression, multiple discriminant analysis, classification and regression tree, artificial neural network, SVM, and fuzzy SVM models, with the same data. The results show that our model outperforms all other comparative models in prediction accuracy as well as return on investment.

A Cause Analysis of Learning Environment Variables of Change in Science Attitudes on Elementary and Secondary School Students (초.중.고 학생들의 과학 태도 변화에 대한 학습환경의 원인 분석)

  • Kwon, Chi-Soon;Hur, Myung;Yang, Il-Ho;Kim, Young-Shin
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.1256-1271
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    • 2004
  • The importance of science attitudes is more increasing in science education. Science attitudes may influence students' attainment, consistency and quality of classwork as well as their later views of science education and scientific occupations. According to the international comparative researches and longitudinal studies on Korean students' science attitudes, it has shown that the more grade, the less science attitude. This research was survey the science attitudes and learning environment variables, and then make a inquiry that causes of decline of science attitudes. To study this purpose, the participating students in this study will be selected from 3th to 11th grade. 6,925 participants were administered 3 times in questionnaires of science attitudes and learning environment variables during a year. The result of this study showed that science attitude got low after June. Science attitude was changed from 4th grade to 8th grade students. Science attitude much more decrease second semester than first semester, high school students' science attitude fell much. It was experience about science that cause the biggest effect in science attitude and other learning environment variables influence in science attitude change. Learning environment variables made different influence from students of increased and declined science attitude. As category that influence in science attitude, in elementary school were gender, area and grade, in middle school were grade and area, and in high school was area.

Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting Online Peer-to-Peer(P2P) Loan Default (인공지능기법을 이용한 온라인 P2P 대출거래의 채무불이행 예측에 관한 실증연구)

  • Bae, Jae Kwon;Lee, Seung Yeon;Seo, Hee Jin
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.207-224
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    • 2018
  • In this article, an empirical study was conducted by using public dataset from Lending Club Corporation, the largest online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the world. We explore significant predictor variables related to P2P lending default that housing situation, length of employment, average current balance, debt-to-income ratio, loan amount, loan purpose, interest rate, public records, number of finance trades, total credit/credit limit, number of delinquent accounts, number of mortgage accounts, and number of bank card accounts are significant factors to loan funded successful on Lending Club platform. We developed online P2P lending default prediction models using discriminant analysis, logistic regression, neural networks, and decision trees (i.e., CART and C5.0) in order to predict P2P loan default. To verify the feasibility and effectiveness of P2P lending default prediction models, borrower loan data and credit data used in this study. Empirical results indicated that neural networks outperforms other classifiers such as discriminant analysis, logistic regression, CART, and C5.0. Neural networks always outperforms other classifiers in P2P loan default prediction.

A Study on the Factors of Normal Repayment of Financial Debt Delinquents (국내 연체경험자의 정상변제 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Sungmin Choi;Hoyoung Kim
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.69-91
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    • 2021
  • Credit Bureaus in Korea commonly use financial transaction information of the past and present time for calculating an individual's credit scores. Compared to other rating factors, the repayment history information accounts for a larger weights on credit scores. Accordingly, despite full redemption of overdue payments, late payment history is reflected negatively for the assessment of credit scores for certain period of the time. An individual with debt delinquency can be classified into two groups; (1) the individuals who have faithfully paid off theirs overdue debts(Normal Repayment), and (2) those who have not and as differences of creditworthiness between these two groups do exist, it needs to grant relatively higher credit scores to the former individuals with normal repayment. This study is designed to analyze the factors of normal repayment of Korean financial debt delinquents based on credit information of personal loan, overdue payments, redemption from Korea Credit Information Services. As a result of the analysis, the number of overdue and the type of personal loan and delinquency were identified as significant variables affecting normal repayment and among applied methodologies, neural network models suggested the highest classification accuracy. The findings of this study are expected to improve the performance of individual credit scoring model by identifying the factors affecting normal repayment of a financial debt delinquent.

A Study on the Analysis Effect Factors of Illegal Parking Using Data Mining Techniques (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 불법주차 영향요인 분석)

  • Lee, Chang-Hee;Kim, Myung-Soo;Seo, So-Min
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2014
  • With the rapid development in the economy and other fields as well, the standard of living in South Korea has been improved, and consequently, the demand of automobiles has quickly increased. It leads to various traffic issues such as traffic congestion, traffic accident, and parking problem. In particular, this illegal parking caused by the increase in the number of automobiles has been considered one of the main reasons to bring about traffic congestion as intensifying any dispute between neighbors in relation to a parking space, which has been also coming to the fore as a social issue. Therefore, this study looked into Daejeon Metropolitan City, the city that is understood to have the highest automobile sharing rate in South Korea but with relatively few cases of illegal parking crackdowns. In order to investigate the theoretical problems of the illegal parking, this study conducted a decision-making tree model-based Exhaustive CHAID analysis to figure out not only what makes drivers park illegally when they try to park vehicles but also those factors that would tempt the drivers into the illegal parking. The study, then, comes up with solutions to the problem. According to the analysis, in terms of the influential factors that encourage the drivers to park at some illegal areas, it was learned that these factors, the distance, a driver's experience of getting caught, the occupation and the use time in order, have an effect on the drivers' deciding to park illegally. After working on the prediction model, four nodes were finally extracted. Given the analysis result, as a solution to the illegal parking, it is necessary to establish public parking lots additionally and first secure the parking space for the vehicles used for living and working, and to activate the campaign for enhancing illegal parking crackdown and encouraging civic consciousness.