• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.726-730
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• 2007

우리나라는 6월부터 9월까지의 우기에 강우가 집중 발생하는 기상특성으로 인해 자연재해의 95% 이상이 집중호우와 태풍에 의한 풍수해로 집계되고 있을 만큼 홍수피해에 취약하며, 오래전부터 홍수방어에 대한 구조적 대책이 시행되어왔다. 본 연구의 목적은 의사결정기법인 Decision Tree(의사결정나무)를 활용하여 유역종합치수계획의 구조적 홍수방어 최적대안 선정을 위한 후보대안들을 제시하여 홍수저감능력을 효율적으로 극대화 하는데 그 목적이 있다. 본 연구는 유역이 가지고 있는 치수적 기능을 최대한 살리고 상 하류의 유기적인 방어 기능을 도모하고자 하였으며, 또한 도시유역 홍수방어 대안 조합 지침을 마련하여 실무에 적용가능한 안을 제시하였다.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.42 no.3
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• pp.195-200
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• 2018

When a ship accident occurs, it is imperative that the captain makes a prompt decision because the accident directly leads to the loss of human lives. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively analyze the main factors and to provide basic data for making decisions in case of ship related contingencies. Experts were surveyed using questionnaires containing eight main factors. The priorities based on relative importance of those factors were determined using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). As a result, the main priority factors were capsizing (heeling occurs), and fire/explosion, which could have the greatest impact on decision making. We plan to do a larger, more detailed scale survey to improve the reliability of the results. The results above will be used as a basis for the main factors of ships and passenger evacuation decision-making procedures.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.11-26
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• 2013

This study examined the applicability of robust decision making (RDM) over standard decision making (SDM) by comparing each result of water supply planning under climate change uncertainties for a Korean dam case. RDM determines the rank of alternatives using the regret criterion which derives less fluctuating alternatives under the risk level regardless of scenarios. RDM and SDM methods were applied to assess hypothetic scenarios of water supply planning for the Andong dam and Imha dam basins. After generating various climate change scenarios and six assumed alternatives, the rank of alternatives was estimated by RDM and SDM respectively. As a result, the average difference in the rank of alternatives between RDM and SDM methods is 0.33~1.33 even though the same scenarios and alternatives were used to be ranked by both of RDM and SDM. This study has significance in terms of an attempt to assess a new approach to decision making for responding to climate change uncertainties in Korea. The effectiveness of RDM under more various conditions should be verified in the future.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.1 s.162
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• pp.35-46
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• 2006

In this study, we proposed a layout of the integrated decision support system in order to prevent the contamination and to manage risk in water supply networks for safe and smooth water supply. We evaluated the priority of risk factors to detect anomaly in water supply networks using PROMETHEE and ANP techniques, which are applied to various Multi-Criteria Decision Making area in Europe and America. To develop the model, we selected pH, residual chlorine concentration, discharge, hydraulic pressure, electrical conductivity, turbidity, block leakage and water temperature as the key data item. We also chose pipe corrosion, pipe burst and water pollution in pipe as the criteria and then we present the results of PROMETHEE and ANP analysis. The evaluation results of the priority of risk factors in water supply networks will provide basic data to establish a contingency plan for accidents so that we can establish the specific emergency response procedures.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.106-115
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• 2007

The size and length of road tunnels have been gradually expanded as industry developed. Consequently, the risk has been increased. The decision making process for ventilation system for road tunnels involves a large amount of information on economic feasibility, construction methods, and safety etc. In situation where systematically structured decision making process is unavailable, almost decisions about ventilation systems are made based on engineers' private knowledge and experiences. Procedure and criteria to choose the best optimized ventilation system among many alternatives are proposed, breaking away from the economic dependency-oriented decision making. This paper presents a Multi-Attribute Utility Theory and AHP based function with which planners can calculate overall utility of each alternative. It is anticipated that the effective use of the proposed methodology for decision making on ventilation systems ould be able to reduce the likelihood of the occurrence of potential safety risks as well as increase the overall ventilation performance.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.455-455
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• 2011

개발로 인한 환경변화는 관련 분석모형을 통해 직접적으로 예측하기 하는 것이 가장 바람직하지만 데이터 취득의 어려움, 분석 방법론의 부재 등의 이유로 정량적 평가가 어려운 현실이다. 그렇기 때문에 수자원사업을 계획시 대부분 환경적인 영향을 매우 정성적인 형태로 평가하거나 수질과 같은 대표적인 항목에 대해서만 예측하는 수준이다. 기존의 연구 또한, 유역 또는 행정구역의 현재의 현 상황을 평가하기 위한 것이 주이며, 수자원사업과 관련성이 적은 항목도 일부 포함되어 있기 때문에 수자원사업의 특수성을 반영하기에 한계가 있다. 현 상황의 이러한 문제점을 인식하여 본 연구는 오늘날 대표적 의사결정 기법이라 할 수 있는 계층화분석과정(AHP)과 다속성효용이론(MAUT)을 활용하여 향후 수자원사업과 관련된 다기준의 사결정 과정에서의 환경성 평가방안을 제시하였다. 환경성 평가기준은 수질, 경관, 생태계 이렇게 세 가지 항목으로 구성하였고, 각 평가기준에 대한 수준을 직접적으로 대변 가능한 정량화 방안을 제시하였다. 그리고 앞서 정량화된 값을 표준화하기 위하여 MAUT 기법으로부터 평가기준별 효용함수를 도출하였다. 한편, 사업을 시행함에 따라 예상되는 환경성변화는 사업전 환경성과 사업 후 환경성을 비교하도록 하였고, 이때 해당사업의 특수성을 반영하고자 별도의 설문과정을 통해 평가기준별 가중치를 결정하였다. 본 연구는 환경성 검토시 생태학적, 물리적 분석에 기반을 둔 정량적 예측의 어려움을 보완하기 위해 정성적 예측을 추가적으로 제시하였고, 사업의 특수성과 평가항목이 갖는 일반성을 명확히 구분하여 의사결정 과정에서 주관적인 요소를 최소화하였다. 또한, 평가항목별 사업전후의 환경성을 비교, 검토함으로써 실제 사업추진 과정에서 개발로 인한 부정적 영향의 사전예방에 도움을 줄 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.159-165
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• 2008

The ROK army has equipped ATCIS (Army Tactical Control Information System) for the Corps echelon to visualize the battlefield and reduce the reaction time. Due to the information&surveillance equipment, uncertainty and variance of the battlefield have been decreased. However decision making for the ground operations has not changed as it depends on knowledge of the commander and staffs. The War game process to select and assess the best CoA (Course of Action) also depends on the pros and cons due to the limitation of time and capability. For the balanced development between intangible and tangible military strength, a new decision making process which is quantitative and useful for the military is needed. In this study, we suggest a Fuzzy-AHP based decision making model to improve troop leading procedure which is useful to evaluate and reflect intangible characteristics of the battlefield.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.299-307
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• 2012

Data mining is a method of searching for an interesting relationship among items in a given database. The decision tree is a typical algorithm of data mining. The decision tree is the method that classifies or predicts a group as some subgroups. In general, when researchers create a decision tree model, the generated model can be complicated by the standard of model creation and the number of input variables. In particular, if the decision trees have a large number of input variables in a model, the generated models can be complex and difficult to analyze model. When creating the decision tree model, if there are marginally conditional variables (intervening variables, external variables) in the input variables, it is not directly relevant. In this study, we suggest the method of creating a decision tree using marginally conditional variables and apply to actual data to search for efficiency.

• Journal of Information Technology and Architecture
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.43-55
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• 2012

In recent years, outsourcing of information systems, including decision support systems has become a key method for managing the system portfolio of a corporation. Since the outsourced DSSs provide their own models and solvers, which may be created on the basis of different modeling practices and system platforms, the decision maker wishing to solve business problems using the outsourced DSSs frequently faces a difficulty in selecting and/or applying appropriate models and solvers to the problems on hand. This paper proposes a DSS outsourcing architecture that enables a user to discover and execute appropriate models and solvers, even though the user is not knowledgeable enough about all the details of the models and solvers. Specifically, this paper adopts a Web services approach to integrate the heterogeneous models and solvers by encapsulating individual models and solvers as Web services and hiding all system specific implementation details from the users.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.19 no.7
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• pp.99-109
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• 2019

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a non-parametric productivity analysis tool, has become an accepted approach for assessing efficiency in a wide range of fields. Despite of its extensive applications, some features of DEA remain bothersome. For example DEA is good at estimating "relative" efficiency of a DMU(Decision Making Unit), it only tells us how well we are doing compared with our peers but not compared with a "theoretical maximum." Thus, in order to measure efficiency of a new DMU, we have to develop entirely new DEA with the data of previously used DMUs. Also we cannot predict the efficiency level of the new DMU without another DEA analysis. We aim to show that DEA can be used to evaluate the efficiency of ports and suggest the methodology which overcomes the limitation of DEA through hybrid analysis utilizing DEA along with C5.0. We can generate classification rules C5.0 in order to classify any new Port without perturbing previously existing evaluation structures by proposed methodology.