• Title/Summary/Keyword: 유행예측

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Etiology and Clinical Features of Viral Lower-respiratory Tract Infections in Children in Winter, 2003 (2003년 겨울철 소아의 바이러스성 하기도 감염증에 대한 원인 및 바이러스별 임상양상)

  • Yun, Byung Ho;Lee, Hee Chul;Chun, Jung Mi;Yoon, So Young;Lee, Woo Gill;Shin, Son Moon
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.48 no.7
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    • pp.723-730
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : This study was performed to characterize the etiology and clinical features of acute viral lower-respiratory tract infections(LRI). Methods : Etiologic agents and clinical features of acute viral LRI were studied from October. 2003 through March. 2004 in hospitalized children with LRI(253 cases) at Samsung Cheil Hospital. The viruses were identified by indirect immunofluorescent method. Medical records of patients with proven viral LRI were reviewed retrospectively. Results : Ninety two cases(36.4%) were confirmed as viral infections. The identified pathogens were respiratory syncytial virus(RSV, 76.0%), adenovirus(ADV, 12.0%), influenza virus type A(INFA, 9.8 %), influenza virus type B(INFB, 1.1%) and parainfluenza virus(PIV, 1.1%). Eight four point eight% of patients were younger than 2 years of age. Clinical diagnosis of LRI were pneumonia(56.5%), bronchiolitis(35.9%), tracheobronchitis(4.3%) and croup(3.3%). The clinical symptoms and signs were cough(98.8%), rhinorrhea(82.6%), fever(70.7%), rale(67.4%), wheezing(29.3%), chest retraction(28.3%) and cyanosis(4.3%). The severe respiratory symptoms and signs were more common in RSV-infected patients, even cyanosis could be observed. Seventeen point four percent of patient had fever of $38.5^{\circ}C$ or higher and their most common etiologic agent was INFA(66.7%). Twenty three point nine percent had fever more than 5 days and common etiologic agent was INFA(77.8%). The elevated WBC count($>14{\times}10^3/{\mu}L$) was in 14.1%, and common etiologic agents were INFA(22.2%) and ADV(18.2%). C-reactive protein(CRP >4.0 mg/dL) was increased in 13.0%, and common in ADV(63.6 %). Increased aspartate aminotransferase(AST)/alanine aminotransferase(ALT) was detected in 10.9%, and the most common etiologic agent was RSV(12.9%). Conclusion : The common agents of acute viral LRI were RSV, ADV and INF, respectively. Because the etiologic agents present variable clinical features, it may be helpful to treat and to evaluate acute viral LRI that we should understand their etiologic variability.

A Study on Netwotk Effect by using System Dynamics Analysis: A Case of Cyworld (시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 이용한 네트워크 효과 분석: 싸이월드 사례)

  • Kim, Ga-Hye;Yang, Hee-Dong
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.161-179
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    • 2009
  • Nowadays an increasing number of Internet users are running individual websites as Blog or Cyworld. As this type of personal media has a great influence on communication among people, business comes to care about Network Effect, Network Software, and Social Network. For instance, Cyworld created the web service called 'Minihompy' for individual web-logs, and acquired 2.4milion users in 2007. Although many people assumed that the popularity of Minihompy, or Blog would be a passing fad, Cyworld has improved its service, and expanded its Network with various contents. This kind of expansion reflects survival efforts from infinite competitions among ISPs (Internet Service Provider) with focus on enhancing usability to users. However, Cyworld's Network Effect is gradually diminished in these days. Both of low production cost of service vendors and the low searching/conversing costs of users combine to make ISPs hard to keep their market share sustainable. To overcome this lackluster trend, Cyworld has adopted new strategies and try to lock their users in their service. Various efforts to improve the continuance and expansion of Network effect remain unclear and uncertain. If we understand beforehand how a service would improve Network effect, and which service could bring more effect, ISPs can get substantial help in launching their new business strategy. Regardless many diverse ideas to increase their user's duration online ISPs cannot guarantee 'how the new service strategies will end up in profitability. Therefore, this research studies about Network effect of Cyworld's 'Minihompy' using System-Dynamics method which could analyze dynamic relation between users and ISPs. Furthermore, the research aims to predict changes of Network Effect based on the strategy of new service. 'Page View' and 'Duration Time' can be enhanced for the short tenn because they enhance the service functionality. However, these services cannot increase the Network in the long-run. Limitations of this research include that we predict the future merely based on the limited data. We also limit the independent variables over Network Effect only to the following two issues: Increasing the number of users and increasing the Service Functionality. Despite of some limitations, this study perhaps gives some insights to the policy makers or others facing the stiff competition in the network business.

A Study on the Liturgical Vestments of Catholic-With reference to the Liturgical Vestments Firm of Paderborn and kevelaer in Germany (카톨릭교 전례복에 관한 연구-독일 Paderborn 과 kevelaer의 전례복 회사를 중심으로)

  • Yang, Ri-Na
    • The Journal of Natural Sciences
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    • v.7
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    • pp.133-162
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    • 1995
  • Paderborn's companies, Wameling and Cassau, produce the liturgical vestments, which have much traditional artistic merit. And Kevelaerer Fahnen + Paramenten GmbH, located in Kevelater which is a place of pilgrimage of the Virgin Mary, was known to Europe, Africa, America and the Scandinavia Peninsula as the "Hidden Company" of liturgical vesments maker up to now. Paderborn and Kevelaer were the place of the center of the religious world and the Catholic ceremony during a good few centries. The Catholic liturgical vestiments of these 3 companies use versatile design, color, shape and techniques. These have not only the symbolism of religion, but also can meet our's expectations of utilization of modern textile art, art clothing and wide-all division of design. These give the understanding of symbolic meanings and harmony according to liturgical vestments to the believers. And these have an influence on mental thinking and induction of religious belief to the non-believers as the recognition and concerns about the religious art. The liturgical vestments are clothes which churchmen put on at the all ceremonial function of a mass, a sacrament, performance and a parade according to rules of church. These show the represen-tation of "Holy God" in silence and distinguish between common people and churchmen. And these represent a status and dignity of churchmen and induce majesty and respect to churchmen. Common clothes of the beginning of the Greece and Rome was developed to Christian clothes with the tendency of religion. There were no special uniforms distinguished from commen people until the Christianity was recognized officially by the Roman Emperor Constantinus at A.D.313. The color of liturgical vestments was originally white and changed to special colors according to liturgical day and each time by the Pope Innocentius at 12th century. The color and symbolic meaning of the liturgical vestments of present day was originated by the Pope St. Pius(1566-1572). Wool and Linen was used as decorations and materials in the beginnings and the special materials like silk was used after 4th century and beautiful materials made of gold thread was used at 12th century. It is expected that there is no critical changes to the liturgical vestments of future. But the development of liturgical vestments will continues slowly by the command of conservative church and will change to simple and convenient formes according to the culture, the trend of the times and the fashion of clothes. The companies of liturgical vestments develop versatile design, embroidery technique and realization of creative design for distinction of the liturgical vestments of each company and artistic progress. The cooperation of companies, artists and church will make the bright future of these 3 companies. We expect that our country will be a famous producing center of the liturgical vestments through the research and development of companies, participation of artists in religeous arts and concerts of church.

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Extension Method of Association Rules Using Social Network Analysis (사회연결망 분석을 활용한 연관규칙 확장기법)

  • Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2017
  • Recommender systems based on association rule mining significantly contribute to seller's sales by reducing consumers' time to search for products that they want. Recommendations based on the frequency of transactions such as orders can effectively screen out the products that are statistically marketable among multiple products. A product with a high possibility of sales, however, can be omitted from the recommendation if it records insufficient number of transactions at the beginning of the sale. Products missing from the associated recommendations may lose the chance of exposure to consumers, which leads to a decline in the number of transactions. In turn, diminished transactions may create a vicious circle of lost opportunity to be recommended. Thus, initial sales are likely to remain stagnant for a certain period of time. Products that are susceptible to fashion or seasonality, such as clothing, may be greatly affected. This study was aimed at expanding association rules to include into the list of recommendations those products whose initial trading frequency of transactions is low despite the possibility of high sales. The particular purpose is to predict the strength of the direct connection of two unconnected items through the properties of the paths located between them. An association between two items revealed in transactions can be interpreted as the interaction between them, which can be expressed as a link in a social network whose nodes are items. The first step calculates the centralities of the nodes in the middle of the paths that indirectly connect the two nodes without direct connection. The next step identifies the number of the paths and the shortest among them. These extracts are used as independent variables in the regression analysis to predict future connection strength between the nodes. The strength of the connection between the two nodes of the model, which is defined by the number of nodes between the two nodes, is measured after a certain period of time. The regression analysis results confirm that the number of paths between the two products, the distance of the shortest path, and the number of neighboring items connected to the products are significantly related to their potential strength. This study used actual order transaction data collected for three months from February to April in 2016 from an online commerce company. To reduce the complexity of analytics as the scale of the network grows, the analysis was performed only on miscellaneous goods. Two consecutively purchased items were chosen from each customer's transactions to obtain a pair of antecedent and consequent, which secures a link needed for constituting a social network. The direction of the link was determined in the order in which the goods were purchased. Except for the last ten days of the data collection period, the social network of associated items was built for the extraction of independent variables. The model predicts the number of links to be connected in the next ten days from the explanatory variables. Of the 5,711 previously unconnected links, 611 were newly connected for the last ten days. Through experiments, the proposed model demonstrated excellent predictions. Of the 571 links that the proposed model predicts, 269 were confirmed to have been connected. This is 4.4 times more than the average of 61, which can be found without any prediction model. This study is expected to be useful regarding industries whose new products launch quickly with short life cycles, since their exposure time is critical. Also, it can be used to detect diseases that are rarely found in the early stages of medical treatment because of the low incidence of outbreaks. Since the complexity of the social networking analysis is sensitive to the number of nodes and links that make up the network, this study was conducted in a particular category of miscellaneous goods. Future research should consider that this condition may limit the opportunity to detect unexpected associations between products belonging to different categories of classification.

An Analysis of the National Suicide Rate in Korea during 2005 (2005년 전국 자살실태 분석)

  • Kim, Gi-Jeong;Kwak, Jyung-Sik
    • Journal of forensic and investigative science
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.5-22
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    • 2007
  • From the numerous social problems generated by the unbalanced social development and the social trend of belittling life overall, we found the causes of suicide getting worse in its seriousness day by day. In reality, the problem has been approached in a collateral level in contrast with other social problems. There have been an active involvement in studying the definition, causes and ways of prevention of suicide theoretically until now. However, different from other social problems, it is almost impossible to treat or fix the problem of suicide. Only ways to treat or fix the problem is when the suicide has ended in failure. Thus, this study intends to examine the suicide rate among the total accidents during the year 2005, perform the analyses on the actual causes according to the relations such as the means of suicide, occupation, age group, educational background, etc. In order to present a solution to the issue of suicide becoming serious each day. Among the total accidents in 2005, the suicide rate came out to be approximately 52.4%. Among the result, 52.4%, male with 69% resulted higher than female with 31%, which appears to be related to the social functions. While men tends to take more active(80%) means of suicide like jumping off, poison, hanging, etc., women tends to take more passive(60%) means of suicide like sleeping pills, slitting wrist, etc. In terms of the cause, pessimism, illness, denial, mental disorder, etc resulted more than 75%, and there were many cases of suicide after exhibiting the signs of depression. Also there were higher suicide rate of the unemployed engaged in direct labor with educational background lower than college level related to the pessimism regarding the family living cost. We were able to determine the recent increase in the suicidal tendency of the educated people higher than the college level and the retired people with depression caused by the sudden change in social status. Overall there are several reasons for suicide, however, in most cases the signs of depression were exhibited until the final suicide, which tells us the serious psychological problem of suicide. Assuming that the current development of suicide will continue in future, the result of this study will guide the corresponding social policies, be utilized in preparing the insurance or management at the national level dealing with the real social problems that are not just a conflict of an individual, but could spread like a fad and become much bigger than the present by the continuous support at the environmental, social and political levels, and be utilized as the basic data to establish the research plan.

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Exploring Sport Consumption Style of Generation Z that the 4th Industrial revolution paid attention to: Applying Decision Tree Analysis based on Data Mining (4차 산업혁명이 주목한 Z세대의 스포츠 소비 스타일 탐색: 데이터마이닝 기반 의사결정 나무 분석 적용)

  • Shin, Jin-Ho;Lim, Young-Sam;Kim, Ji-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.1208-1221
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to provide basic data for predicting the sports consumption market that Generation Z will lead by applying data mining based decision tree analysis to explore Generation Z sports consumption style. Therefore, the survey was conducted by selecting males and females aged 19 or older as a sample among Generation Z, and data of 429 people were used for the final analysis. For data processing, frequency analysis, exploratory factor analysis, retest and reliability analysis, and decision tree analysis were performed using the SPSS statistics (ver. 21.0) program. The main results of this study are as follows. First, if the rational efficiency index is high and the aesthetic consumption index is low, the probability of being classified as a group of female was 96.8%. On the other hand, if the rational efficiency and perception of price index were low, the probability of being classified as a male group was 100%. Second, if the brand orientation, perception of price, and rational efficiency index were high, the probability of being classified as a capital area group was 97.3%. Contrary to the results presented above, the probability of being classified as a other area group was 82.1% when the brand orientation, commemoration rites, and status symbol index were low. Third, the status symbol and trend oriented index were high, and if the functionality index was low, the probability of being classified into daily life and fashion groups was 77.6%. On the contrary, if the status symbol index is low, the retention of membership and enjoy consumption index is high, the probability of being classified into exercise and competition groups was 81.0%.

A New Horizon of Understanding of the Faith Community Based on the Concept of Immunity between Ecclesia and Esposito (에클레시아와 에스포지토의 면역 개념에 입각한 신앙공동체 이해의 새 지평)

  • Yang, Seung-Joon
    • Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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    • v.62
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    • pp.161-186
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted with the aim of opening a new horizon in understanding the church, which is a community of faith, in the context of losing social credibility with selfishness and closedness, and spreading social distance due to the epidemic. First, the concept and meaning of 'Ecclesia', a representative term for the church, was studied historically, biblically, and theologically, and Paul's intention was frequently used. Second, we explored the new horizons of the community of faith through a discussion of Roberto Esposito's Communitas and Immunitas, which unraveled the relationship between community and individual with an immunological concept. Not only dis lose social trust for a variety of reasons, but it has been pointed out as a target of social distancing due to the spread of the epidemic virus and is facing a crisis of weakening or loss of the faith community of the "church". Since the second epidemic has been predicted since Covid-19, the partial loss of daily life and the weakening and loss of meeting worship and fellowship in the church are inevitable. The church in the future needs to transform and build a true community of faith that understands the concept of immunity and can lead the transformation of society while revealing the spirit and life scent of Jesus Christ. To this end, innovation and practice of the paradigm of the community of faith appropriate to the rapidly changing times and situations is required. In Chapter 1 of this paper, we propose innovation by pointing out the problems of the church and the faith community, which have lost social credibility, and which are the objects of social distance, with selfishness and closedness. Chapter 2 studies and analyzes the 'Ecclesia' used in ancient Greek to transform the paradigm of the faith community, and identifies the intention of the apostle Paul to apply the 'Ecclesia' to the church's faith community. Chapter 3-4 discusses the concept of immunity, summarizes the reinterpretation of Esposito, who looked at the relationship between the individual and the community through the concept of positive immunity beyond negative immunity. And It draws application points for transforming the faith community of various communities, individuals, and churches. In conclusion, Chapter 5 restores precious gatherings and participation that are weakened and lost through the meaning of 'Ecclesia' and suggests expansion to higher level public gatherings and democratic participation. In addition, based on the reinterpretation of the concept of immunity, we present unity in diversity and diversity in unity as alternatives to the church and community of faith.

A Study on 21st Century Fashion Market in Korea (21세기 한국패션시장에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Hye-Young
    • The Journal of Natural Sciences
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.209-216
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    • 1998
  • The results of the study of diving the 21st century's Korea fashion market into consumer market, fashion market, and a new marketing strategy are as follows. The 21st consumer market is First, a fashion democracy phenomenon. As many people try to leave unconditional fashion following, consumer show a phenomenon to choose and create their own fashion by subjective judgements. Second, a phenomenon of total fashion pursuit. Consumer in the future are likely to put their goals not in differentiating small item products, but considering various fashion elements based on their individuality and sense of value. Third, world quality-oriented. With the improvement of life level, it accomplishes to emphasize consumers' fashion mind on the world wide popular use of materials, quality, design and brand image. Fourth, with the entrance of neo-rationalism, consumers show increasing trends to emphasize wisdom, solidity in goods strategy pursuing high quality fashion and to demand resonable prices. Fifth, concept-oriented. Consumers are changing into pursuing concept appropriate to individual life scene. Prospecting the composition of the 21st century's fashion market, First, sportive casual zone will draw attention more than any other zone. This is because interest in sports will grow according to the increase of leisure time and the expasion of time and space in the 21st century, and also ecology will become the important issue of sports sense because of human beings's natural habit toward nature. Second, the down aging phenomenon will accelerate its speed as a big trend. Third, a retro phenomenon, a concept contrary to digital and high-tech, will become another big trend for its remake, antique, and classic concept in fashion market with ecology trend. New marketing strategy to cope with changing fashion market is as follows. First, with the trend of borderless concept, borders between apparels are becoming vague, for example, they offer custom-made products to consumers. Second, as more enterprises take the way of gorilla and guerrilla where guerrillas who aim at niche market show up will develop. Basically, they think highly of individual creative study, and pursue the scene adherence with high sensitiveness. However this polarization becomes mutually-supplementing relationship showing gorilla's guerilla movement, and guerilla's gorilla high-tech. Third with the development of value retailing, enterprises pursuing mass merchandising of groups called category killers are expanded and amplified to new product fields, and expand business' share. Fourth, using outsourcing, the trend to use exterior function leaving each enterprise's strength by inspecting its own work is gradually strong. Fifth, with the expansion of none store sale, the entrance of the internet and the CD-ROM sales added to communication sales such as catalogues are specified. An eminent American think tank expect that 5-5% of the total sale of clothes and home goods in 2010 will be done by none store sale. Accordingly, to overcome the problems, First international, global level marketing, Second, the improvement of technology, Third, knowledge-creating marketing are needed.

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A Study for an Educational Direction in Fashion Design Subjected to Digital Environment I (디지털 환경에 따른 패션분야의 디자인 교육방향 연구 I)

  • 이미량
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 1999
  • Fashion is subjected to newness and change by itself. Fashion trend and tendency which could predict next season akeady indicated that digital and cybel11ation environment lliould be factors in fashion. Changes in future life styles and values caused by digital environment must be variables as fashion objects by themselves. Therefore digital environment of a fashion itself and that all encountered in fashion will not only be an existing situation but also an objective and a factor which must be pursued with fashionable sense in future fashion. Advanced technology and social change in relation to digital environment requires that educational method as well as its content will be changed on the scene of education for future. Thus we should seek an educational direction in fashion design for future society in which digital environment requires new paradigm. Subject to these backgrounds this study has an intension to study the change in fashion extensively influenced by expanded digital environment on a limited situational level of fashion design education and to suggest an educational direction for professional in future fashion design who will serve as a core of fashion area in the future. It is essential that education of professional in fashion for future should be achieved by digital-minded level that eagerly understands and accepts future society in which digital environment will be a main axis. It is necessary for this to make them expetience computers, digital media including CAD program. We have to note that education of digital media is more effective and applicable when accomplished in CAI level which can be related and expetienced with fashion education rather than mere functional training in media themselves. Intellectual creativity will be a vety source of producing values and national competence in 21st centtury. Education of design professional in fashion area must positively accept these environmental charactetistics in future society, as well as deeply reflect the education for the future.

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Preparation and Measures for Elderly with Dementia in Korea : Focus on National Strategies and Action Plan against Dementia (한국의 치매에 대한 대응과 대책 : 국가 전략과 활동계획)

  • Lee, Moo-Sik
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.11-27
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    • 2019
  • Dementia is major epidemic disease of the 21st century in the world. Dementia is one of the major issues in public health globally. Also in Korea, the estimated prevalence of dementia was 8.7%(0.47 million) in 2010, the number will reach the 1 million mark in 2024, it will become a 15.1%(2.71 million) by 2050. Among Koreans aged 65 or older, 725,000 are estimated to be suffering from dementia in 2017. Against dementia, Korea developed three National Dementia Plans in 2008, 2012, and 2016. The 1st plan was came into effect in 2008 and focused on prevention, early diagnostic, development and coordination of infrastructures and management, and improving awareness. The 2nd plan was launched in 2012, addressed the same priorities but had a stronger focus on supporting family members. In 2012 the Dementia Management Act established a statutory basis for organization of the National Dementia Plans. Under the Dementia Management Act, the government is required to produce a comprehensive plan for dementia every 5 years. The Act also orders that the government should register the dementia patients and collect statistics on epidemiology and the management of the dementia conditions. The Dementia Management Act of Korea required the operation of the National Institute of Dementia and Metropolitan/Provincial Dementia Centers to make and carry out dementia management plans throughout the nation. The Act also mandate to establish Dementia Counselling Centers in every public health center and the National Dementia Helpline. The 3rd National Dementia Plan of 2016 aims to build a dementia friendly community to ensure people with dementia and their carer live well. This plan focus on community-based prevention and management of dementia, convenient and safe diagnosis, treatment, and care for people with dementia, the reduction of the care burden for family care-givers of people with dementia, and support for dementia research through research, statistics and technology. In 2017, Moon's government will introduce the "National Dementia Responsibility System," which guarantees most of the burden caused by dementia. This plan include that the introduction of a ceiling on self-pay for dementia diseases, expansion of the application of dementia care standards through alleviating the support criteria for long-term care insurance for mild dementia, expansion of dementia support centers, expansion of national and public dementia care facilities. In the meantime, Korea has accomplished many accomplishments by establishing many measures related to dementia and promoting related projects in a short time, but there are still many challenges.