• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험확률

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Clinical Experience of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (복부 대동맥류 수술의 임상적 고찰)

  • Kwak, Young-Tae;Lim, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Sak;Yoo, Kyung-Jong;Chang, Byung-Chul;Kang, Meyun-Shick;Hong, Yoo-Sun
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.261-266
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    • 2003
  • Background: Surgery of abdominal aortic aneurysm revealed high operative mortality. We reviewed our 11-years' experiences of abdominal aortic aneurysm operation and wish to obtain information on the treatment. Material and Method: From Jan. 1990 to Dec. 2000, 48 patients were operated due to abdominal aortic aneurysm in Yonsei Cardiovascular Center Mean age was $62.8{\pm}12.7$ and there were 40 males and 8 females. Among 48 patients, nine patients had ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm, and mean aneurysm diameter of non-ruptured cases was $8.8{\pm}2.4$cm. Result: There were 6 early deaths, and early mortality was 12.5%. Among 9 patients of preoperative aneurysm rupture, three patients died (33.3%), and among 39 patients of non-ruptured cases, 3 patients died (7.7%). Among preoperative variables, age (p<0.05), preoperative BUN level (p<0.05), and DM (p<0.05) were risk factors of early mortality. Among discharged 42 patients, 40 patients were followed up (f/u rate=95.2%) and mean follow up was $3.6{\pm}0.2$ years. During follow up periods, five patients died (late mortality=11.9%), and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed $81.7{\pm}7.6$% survival rate at five and ten year. Linealized incidence of graft related event was 3.53% per patient-year. Conclusion: Surgical mortality of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm was higher than non-ruptured cases; therefore, early resection of the aneurysm can decrease the surgical mortality.

Occupational Radiation Exposure to Hospital Workers: On the Effect of Hematological Change (병원 내 방사선 작업종사자의 만성적 방사선 피폭에 의한 혈액학적 성분 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Jae-Kwang;Jung, Woo-Young;Shin, Sang-Ki;Cho, Shee-Man;Dong, Kyung-Rae;Kim, Hyun-Soo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.157-170
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: This prospective study was conducted to reveal the haematological index change by low level radiation exposure in radiological environment our hospital workers. Materials and Method: We gathered the cumulative dose by Thermoluminenscent Dosimeters (TLD) over 9-yr period and examined hematological index counts change (RBC, Hb, Platelet, WBC, Monocyte, Lymphocyte, Neutrophilic, Basophilic, Eosinophilic) both occupational workers and controls. Of a total 370 occupational workers and 335 controls were compared. Results: This analysis has led to the following general observations 1) The average cumulative dose in male and female were $9.65{\pm}15.2\;mSv$, $4.82{\pm}5.55\;mSv$ respectively. 2) In both male and female, there were very low relationship between occupation period and cumulative dose (r< ${\pm}0.25$). 3) Occupation period was more increased, in male, WBC counts decreased and increased workers, RBC counts decreased workers were more than controls group (p<0.05). In female, WBC counts decreased and increased workers and W-eosino counts decreased workers were more than controls group (p<0.01). 4) Cumulative dose was more increased, in male, W-Lympho counts decreased workers and Platelet counts deceased workers were more than controls group (p<0.05). In female, W-lympho counts decreased workers and RBC counts decreased workers were more than controls group (p<0.05). Conclusions: We can find some kinds of blood index abnormal distribution in occupational radiation workers by comparing with controls. Occupational workers cannot avoid radiation exposure, in spite of the control it. Actually low level radiation adverse effect occurred not dose but probability. So workers must always try to reduce exposure by ourselves, furthermore as long as possible the government should provide rapidly that national system on radiation control for worker's health.

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A Methodology for Evaluating Regional and Structural Safety to Each District (지자체별 지역 및 시설물별 안전도 평가 방안)

  • Park, Moo-Jong;Jun, Hwan-Don;Jung, Sang-Man
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.361-365
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    • 2007
  • 자연재난은 발생원인에 따라 바람, 강우, 적설, 파고등으로 구분할 수 있다. 이러한 재난원인은 자연현상의 일부로 발생하였으나, 경제가 발전함에 따라 과거에 비해 재해에 안전한 사회를 요구하게 되어 재해저감을 위한 투자와 방재정책 개발의 필요성이 증대되고 있다. 기존에는 자연재난을 저감시키기 위하여 연최대치 강우를 통계 분석하고 강우-유출관계를 이용하여 장래에 발생할 홍수량을 예측하여 자연재난을 저감할 수 있도록 설계하는 것이 일반적인 재난저감계획 수립으로 간주되었다. 그러나, 재해예방을 위해서는 과거에 발생한 재난의 지역적 특성을 분석하여 재난발생 위험과 피해규모를 파악함으로써 재난계획 수립의 기초자료로 활용할 필요성이 있다. 이러한 자연재난에 대한 대책수립은 국가차원에서 필요하며 이를 위해서는 지역별 안전도 평가의 필요성이 증가하게 된다. 그러나 이러한 연구를 수행하기 위해서는 방대한 자료를 바탕으로 풍수해 발생특성을 분석하는 연구와 지자체 또는 지역별 재난피해저감 능력을 수치적으로 나타낼 필요성이 있다. 따라서, 공학적인 면뿐만 아니라 행정적인 면을 동시에 고려하는 학제간 연구가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라에서 주로 발생하는 풍수해에 의한 자연재난 특성을 파악하고 재난발생 확률을 고려한 재난피해규모와 재난피해 저감능력을 비교하여 전국 234개 지자체별 지역 및 시설물별 안전도를 평가하고자 한다. 과거 10년간 재해연보에 수록된 지자체별 피해현황을 지자체별 특성을 고려하여 분석, 지자체별 연평균 피해규모를 소방방재청의 지역별 안전도 지침서에 의거, 10등급으로 분석하였다. 또한, 지자체별로 투자우선순위 및 방재예산편성의 효율성 극대화를 위해 지자체별 시설물별 피해현황을 분석하는 기법을 개발하여 지자체별 시설물별 안전도 진단지표를 설정하였다. 분석된 결과는 지자체별 시설물별 재해저감을 위한 풍수해저감 종합계획 재난보험제도 도입등의 기초자료로 적용될 수 있다.로 나타났다. 이는 두 흐름에 의해 와(vortex)가 크게 형성되어 하상의 세굴에 영향을 미치기 때문으로 판단되었다.보다 본질부가 차지하는 면적이 월등히 적고 제1차 및 제2차섬유가 차지하는 면적이 많았다. 따라서 고섬유함량인 대마의 품종개량에 있어서는 가능한 한 본질부가 차지하는 면적은 축소시키고 제1차 및 제2차섬유가 차지하는 면적은 증대시켜야 할 것으로 본다.우리 나라 수도의 작기는 앞으로 당기는 것이 좋다고 고찰된다. 6. 우리 나라의 현행 수도작기로 본 기온 및 일조조건은 수도의 분얼전기에 대해서는 호조건하에 놓여 있으나, 분얼후기인 7월 중ㆍ하순 경의 일조부족과 고온다습조건은 병해, 특히 도열병의 유발원인이 되고 있다. 7. 우리 나라의 현행수도작기로 본 전국각지의 수도의 출수기는 모두 일조시간이 적은 부적당한 시기에 처해 있다. 8. 출수후 40일간의 평균기온에 의한 적산온도 88$0^{\circ}C$의 출현기일은 수원에서 8월 23일이었고, 년간편차를 고려한 안전출수기일은 8월 19일로서 적산온도면에서는 관행 출수기일은 약간 늦다고 보았다. 9. 등열기의 평균기온에 의한 적산온도는 현행 수도작기로서는 최종한계시기에 놓여 있으며, 평균기온의 년간편차와 우리 나라의 최저기온이 낮은 점을 고려할 때, 현행출수기는 다소 늦은 것으로 보았다. 10. 생육단계별의 수도체내의 질소함량은 영양생장기의 질소함량이 과다하였으며, 출수 이후에 영양조락을 여하히 방지하느냐가 문제된다고 보았다. 11. 수리불안전답 및 천수답이 차지하는 전답면적의 비율은 차차 감소되고 있는데, 이와 전체 10a당 수량의 증가율과의 상관계수를 산출하였는데, 수리불안전답과의 상관계수 (4)는 +0.525였으며, 천수답과는 r=+0.832, 그리고 수리불안전답과 천수답을 합계한 것과의 상관계수 (r)는 +0.841로서 후2자와는 고도의 정(+) 상관을 보여 천수답이 차지하는 면적비율이 작

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Soil Salinity and Vegetation Distribution at Four Tidal Reclamation Project Areas (4개 간척 지구에 분포하는 식생과 토양 염류농도)

  • Lee, Seung-Heon;Ji, Kwang-Jae;An, Yeoul;Ro, Hee-Myong
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2003
  • This research was conducted to present reference data to be used as newly reclaimed tidal land management. We investigated vegetation succession at 4 reclaimed/reclaiming project areas and discussed relationship with soil and vegetation trhrough investigation and analysis soil chemical characteristics at 2 areas. 14 families 58 kinds were investigated. Vegetation were variou at Dea-Ho conservation polt and Seok-Mun National Industrial Area which are maintaining naturally. Vegetation were simple at Hong-Bo and Dongjin and MinKyong river areas which effected sea water. Common species that were investigated at 9 sites were Suaeda asparagoides, Aster tripolium, Phragmites australis, Suaeda maritima, Suaeda japonica, Carex scabrifolis. As soil desalinization progressing, soil classified at first saline-soidc soil, the nest saline soil and then normal soil. Chenopodiaceae revealed at about 30 dS/m of soil ECe and existed to 10 dS/m of soil ECe. At about 20 dS/m of soil ECe. Aster tripolium, Calamagrostis epigeios, and Sonchus brachyotus revealed and then non-halophytes and common plants at inland revealed at low soil ECe of about 10 dS/m. However it was not to progress vegetation sucdession and soil desalinization at the same time, owing to input of seeds or plants ect from out-ecosystem. So for promotion of vegetation at newly reclaimed tidal land, we proposed that it was very effective to plant artificially halophytes or suitable species through soil test.

Severity of Comorbidities among Suicidal Attempters Classified by the Forms of Psychiatric Follow-up (자살시도자의 정신건강의학과 치료 연계 형태에 따른 동반질병 심각도의 차이)

  • Lee, Hyeok;Oh, Seung-Taek;Kim, Min-Kyeong;Lee, Seon-Koo;Seok, Jeong-Ho;Choi, Won-Jung;Lee, Byung Ook
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.74-82
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    • 2016
  • Objectives : Suicide attempters have impaired decision making and are at high risk of reattempt. Therefore it is important to refer them to psychiatric treatment. Especially, People with medical comorbidity are at higher risk of suicidal attempt and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the characteristics of suicidal attempters and to analyze the influence of the medical comorbidity on decision to receive psychiatric treatment after visit to an emergency department. Methods : One hundred and thirty two patients, who visited the emergency room of a general hospital in Gyeonggi-do between January, 2012 and December, 2012 were enrolled as the subjects of this study. After reviewing each subject's medical records retrospectively, demographic and clinical factors were analyzed. Results : Regardless of the engagement type, either via admission or outpatient clinic, the determinant factors of psychiatric treatment engagement were psychiatric diagnosis, employment status, previous psychiatric treatment history, and previous attempt history. Comparison of severity of medical comorbidity(Charlson Comorbidity Index) showed that suicide attempters who received psychiatric treatment via admission or refused the treatment tended to have higher level of medical comorbidity than who received psychiatric treatment via outpatient department. Conclusions : Our findings showed that medical comorbidity of suicide attempters affected the decision to accept psychiatric treatment. All psychiatrists should evaluate the presence and the severity of medical comorbidity of the suicide attempters and consider implementing more intervention for the medically ill attempters who are willing to discharge against advice.

Estimation of Heading Date using Mean Temperature and the Effect of Sowing Date on the Yield of Sweet Sorghum in Jellabuk Province (평균온도를 이용한 전북지역 단수수의 출수기 추정 및 파종시기별 수량 변화)

  • Choi, Young Min;Choi, Kyu-Hwan;Shin, So-Hee;Han, Hyun-Ah;Heo, Byong Soo;Kwon, Suk-Ju
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.64 no.2
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    • pp.127-136
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    • 2019
  • Sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench), compared to traditional crops, has been evaluated as a useful crop with high adaptability to the environment and various uses, but cultivation has not expanded owing to a lack of related research and information in Korea. This study was conducted to estimate heading date in 'Chorong' sweet sorghum based on climate data of the last 30 years (1989 - 2018) from six regions (Jeonju, Buan, Jeongup, Imsil, Namwon, and Jangsu) in Jellabuk Province. In addition, we compared the growth and quality factors by sowing date (April 10, April 25, May 10, May 25, June 10, June 25, and July 10) in 2018. Days from sowing to heading (DSH) increased to 107, 96, 83, 70, 59, 64, and 65 days in order of the sowing dates, respectively, and the average was 77.7 days. The effective accumulated temperature for heading date was $1,120.3^{\circ}C$. The mean annual temperature was the highest in Jeonju, followed in descending order by Jeongup, Buan, Namwon, Imsil, and Jangsu. The DSH based on effective accumulated temperature gradually decreased in all sowing date treatments in the six regions during the last 30 years. DSH of the six regions showed a negative relationship with mean temperature (sowing date to heading date) and predicted DSH ($R^2=0.9987**$) calculated by mean temperature was explained with a probability of 89% of observed DSH in 2017 and 2018. At harvest, fresh stem weight and soluble solids content were higher in the April and July sowings, but sugar content was higher in the May 10 ($3.4Mg{\cdot}ha^{-1}$) and May 25 ($3.1Mg{\cdot}ha^{-1}$) sowings. Overall, the April and July sowings were of low quality and yield, and there is a risk of frost damage; thus, we found May sowings to be the most effective. Additionally, sowing dates must be considered in terms of proper harvest stage, harvesting target (juice or grain), cultivation altitude, and microclimate.

A Systematic Review of Community Elder Abuse Studies in South Korea (한국 지역사회 거주 노인학대 연구의 체계적 고찰)

  • Kim, Dong Ha;Kang, Serin;Lee, Yoon Kyoung;Cha, Ye Won;Yoo, Seunghyun;Kim, Hongsoo
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.1003-1024
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    • 2016
  • The human rights of older people have gotten more attention recently in South Korea, a country that is in transition to a super-aged society. This study aimed to systematically review studies on elder abuse and related factors among community-dwelling older adults in South Korea over twenty years (1994-2016). We searched major databases (Riss, DBpia, KISS, KMbase, and PubMed) and identified published studies relevant to the topic. Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria related to study quality, a total of 31 studies were selected for this review. We examined types, measurements, and risk factors of elder abuse as well as study designs in the selected studies, guided by Johannesen's theoretical framework on elder abuse. All of the reviewed studies on elder abuse in Korea were cross-sectional studies, most of which focused on older people living in urban areas, using a non-random sampling method. All of the studies focused on certain types of elder abuse only. Some adopted elder-abuse instruments that were not validated, and others used self-developed instruments without psychometric tests. As for the risk factors of elder abuse in South Korea, the physical and mental health of the victims and aggressors impacted the risk of elder abuse, but general sociodemographic factors such as age, sex, and education were less likely to be related to the risk. In addition, decreasing caregiver burden and building elder-friendly communities are important for the prevention of elder abuse. Needed are further empirical studies on elder abuse with a theoretical framework that gives consideration to the unique sociocultural contexts of Korea. It is also recommended to develop instruments to measure elder abuse reflecting the sociocultural contexts of Korea, and to examine the multi-dimensional risk factors of elder abuse.

Distress and Associated Factors in Patients with Breast Cancer Surgery : A Cross-Sectional Study (유방암 수술환자의 디스트레스 및 연관인자 : 단면연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Shin;Rim, Hyo-Deog;Woo, Jungmin
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 2018
  • Objectives : This study aimed to investigate the level of distress using the distress thermometer (DT) and the factors associated with distress in postoperative breast cancer (BC) patients. Methods : DT and WHOQOL-BREF (World Health Organization Quality of Life Scale Abbreviated Version) along with sociodemographic variables were assessed in patients undergoing surgery for their first treatment of BC within one week postoperatively. The distress group consisted of participants with a DT score ${\geq}4$. The prevalence and associative factors of distress were examined by descriptive, univariable, and logistic regression analysis. Results : Three hundred seven women were recruited, and 264 subjects were finally analyzed. A total of 173 (65.5%) were classified into the distress group. The distress group showed significantly younger age (p=0.045), living without a spouse (p=0.032), and worse quality of life (QOL) as measured by overall QOL (p=0.009), general health (p=0.005), physical health domain (p<0.000), and psychological health domain (p=0.002). The logistic regression analysis showed that patients aged 40-49 years were more likely to experience distress than those aged ${\geq}60years$ (Odds ratios [OR]=2.992, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.241-7.215). Moreover, the WHOQOL-BREF physical health domain was a predictive factor of distress (OR=0.777, 95% CI 0.692-0.873). Conclusions : A substantial proportion of patients are experiencing significant distress after BC surgery. It would be expected that distress management, especially in the middle-aged patients and in the domain of physical QOL (e.g., pain, insomnia, fatigue), from the early BC treatment stage might reduce chronic distress.

The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF (증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측)

  • Yang, Suyeon;Lee, Chaerok;Won, Jonggwan;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.237-262
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    • 2022
  • There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

Preliminary Inspection Prediction Model to select the on-Site Inspected Foreign Food Facility using Multiple Correspondence Analysis (차원축소를 활용한 해외제조업체 대상 사전점검 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Hae Jin Park;Jae Suk Choi;Sang Goo Cho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.121-142
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    • 2023
  • As the number and weight of imported food are steadily increasing, safety management of imported food to prevent food safety accidents is becoming more important. The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety conducts on-site inspections of foreign food facilities before customs clearance as well as import inspection at the customs clearance stage. However, a data-based safety management plan for imported food is needed due to time, cost, and limited resources. In this study, we tried to increase the efficiency of the on-site inspection by preparing a machine learning prediction model that pre-selects the companies that are expected to fail before the on-site inspection. Basic information of 303,272 foreign food facilities and processing businesses collected in the Integrated Food Safety Information Network and 1,689 cases of on-site inspection information data collected from 2019 to April 2022 were collected. After preprocessing the data of foreign food facilities, only the data subject to on-site inspection were extracted using the foreign food facility_code. As a result, it consisted of a total of 1,689 data and 103 variables. For 103 variables, variables that were '0' were removed based on the Theil-U index, and after reducing by applying Multiple Correspondence Analysis, 49 characteristic variables were finally derived. We build eight different models and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold cross validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated. The research purpose of selecting companies subject to on-site inspection is to maximize the recall, which is the probability of judging nonconforming companies as nonconforming. As a result of applying various algorithms of machine learning, the Random Forest model with the highest Recall_macro, AUROC, Average PR, F1-score, and Balanced Accuracy was evaluated as the best model. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the selection reason for nonconforming facilities of individual instances, and discuss applicability to the on-site inspection facility selection system. Based on the results of this study, it is expected that it will contribute to the efficient operation of limited resources such as manpower and budget by establishing an imported food management system through a data-based scientific risk management model.