• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험지 예측

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GAM: A Criticality Prediction Model for Large Telecommunication Systems (GAM: 대형 통신 시스템을 위한 위험도 예측 모델)

  • Hong, Euy-Seok
    • The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2003
  • Criticality prediction models that determine whether a design entity is fault-prone or non fault-prone play an important role in reducing system development costs because the problems in early phases largely affect the quality of the late products. Real-time systems such as telecommunication systems are so large that criticality prediction is mere important in real-time system design. The current models are based on the technique such as discriminant analysis, neural net and classification trees. These models have some problems with analyzing causes of the prediction results and low extendability. This paper builds a new prediction model, GAM, based on Genetic Algorithm. GAM is different from other models because it produces a criticality function. So GAM can be used for comparison between entities by criticality. GAM is implemented and compared with a well-known prediction model, BackPropagation neural network Model(BPM), considering Internal characteristics and accuracy of prediction.

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Decision-making system for the resource forecasting and risk management using regression algorithms (회귀알고리즘을 이용한 자원예측 및 위험관리를 위한 의사결정 시스템)

  • Han, Hyung-Chul;Jung, Jae-Hun;Kim, Sin-Ryeong;Kim, Young-Gon
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.311-319
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, in order to increase the production efficiency of the industrial plant, and predicts the resources of the manufacturing process, we have proposed a decision-making system for resource implementing the risk management effectively forecasting and risk management. A variety of information that occurs at each step efficiently difficult the creation of detailed process steps in the scenario you want to manage, is a frequent condition change of manufacturing facilities for the production of various products even within the same process. The data that is not contiguous products production cycle also not constant occurs, there is a problem that needs to check the variation in the small amount of data. In order to solve these problems, data centralized manufacturing processes, process resource prediction, risk prediction, through a process current status monitoring, must allow action immediately when a problem occurs. In this paper, the range of change in the design drawing, resource prediction, a process completion date using a regression algorithm to derive the formula, classification tree technique was proposed decision system in three stages through the boundary value analysis.

The Prediction of Hazard Area Using Raster Model (Raster 모델을 이용한 재해위험지 예측기법)

  • Kang, In-Joon;Choi, Chul-Ung;Cheong, Chang-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.2 no.2 s.4
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 1994
  • GSIS(geo-spatial information system), particularly when utilized in hazard management decision, is one of hazard analysis tool. Data of GSIS input from digitizing or scanning of map or aerial photos. This paper focuses upon the hazard prediction in GSIS and RS analysis to assess map, aerialphotos, satellite imagery and soil map. This study found computation of hazard area analysis. the results is formed as raster data model of quadtree. Authors knew more accurate results of overlay. This paper shows building up integrated data base as well as search of hazard area in aerial photographs.

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DDoS Prediction Modeling Using Data Mining (데이터마이닝을 이용한 DDoS 예측 모델링)

  • Kim, Jong-Min;Jung, Byung-soo
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2016
  • With the development of information and communication technologies like internet, the environment where people are able to access internet at any time and at any place has been established. As a result, cyber threats have been tried through various routes. Of cyber threats, DDoS is on the constant rise. For DDoS prediction modeling, this study drew a DDoS security index prediction formula on the basis of event data by using a statistical technique, and quantified the drawn security index. It is expected that by using the proposed security index and coming up with a countermeasure against DDoS threats, it is possible to minimize damage and thereby the prediction model will become objective and efficient.

A review of using Function Point for the successful project (성공적인 프로젝트 수행을 위한 FP의 활용방안 검토)

  • Hwang, In-Soo;Oh, Eun-Sung;Kim, Heung-Shik
    • 한국IT서비스학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2002.06a
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    • pp.165-172
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    • 2002
  • 전통적으로 소프트웨어 프로젝트는 납기지연, 예산초과, 높은 결함율 등으로 타 산업분야의 프로젝트에 비해 매우 높은 실패율을 기록하고 있는 것으로 알려져 있다. 이 같은 소프트웨어 프로젝트의 실패원인에 대한 많은 연구결과는 소프트웨어가 갖고 있는 범위와 요구사항 정의의 어려움, 비가시성으로 인한 초기견적의 부정확성, 역시 가시성의 부족으로 진행상황파악의 어려움에 따른 진척관리의 애로, 더욱 큰 문제는 변경의 용이성과 변경에 대한 추적의 어려움 등을 지적하고 있다. 실패한 프로젝트들의 내용을 보면 대부분 계획의 부정확성이나 위험에 대한 대처의 부족 또는 진행 중 발생하는 변경에 대한 통제의 실패에서 찾아 볼 수 있다. 정확한 예측과 위험 예방 그리고 효과적인 통제대책이 소프트웨어 프로젝트를 성공으로 이끄는 3두 마차라는 지적이다. 정확한 예측의 핵은 프로젝트 산출물인 제품에 대한 정확한 규모측정에 있고, 위험 예방은 복잡도가 높거나 불확실성이 높은 컴포넌트의 자원소요에 대한 예측과 이에 대한 준비의 소홀에서 찾을 수 있으며, 효과적인 통제대책은 프로젝트 관리 프레임워크가 튼튼하지 못하거나 이의 준수를 위한 노력의 결핍에서 찾을 수 있을 것이다. 본 논문에서는 이 3두 마차 중 가장 근간이 되고 시발점이 되는 제품의 규모에 대한 예측에 초점을 맞추어 규모측정에 가장 합리적이고 객관적이며 실용성이 높다고 현재 국제적으로 높은 평가를 받고 있는 기능점수를 프로젝트 관리에 어떻게 활용해야 프로젝트를 성공시킬 수 있을 지의 방법에 대한 검토 결과를 제시고자 한다.

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Taxonomy Framework for Metric-based Software Quality Prediction Models (소프트웨어 품질 예측 모델을 위한 분류 프레임워크)

  • Hong, Euy-Seok
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.134-143
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    • 2010
  • This paper proposes a framework for classifying metric-based software quality prediction models, especially case of software criticality, into four types. Models are classified along two vectors: input metric forms and the necessity of past project data. Each type has its own characteristics and its strength and weakness are compared with those of other types using newly defined criteria. Through this qualitative evaluation each organization can choose a proper model to suit its environment. My earlier studies of criticality prediction model implemented specific models in each type and evaluated their prediction performances. In this paper I analyze the experimental results and show that the characteristics of a model type is the another key of successful model selection.

The Prediction of Landslide Potential Area Using SHALSTAB (SHALSTAB을 이용한 산사태 위험지 예측)

  • Jang, Hyeon Seok;Lee, Sang Hee;Kim, Je Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.103 no.2
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    • pp.218-225
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    • 2014
  • Landslides, one of earth's natural disasters, increase every year due to heavy rainfall, and cause damage to human life and assets. This study used the SHALSTAB to predict places at risk of landslides, in accordance with the intensity of rainfall. The parameter value of transmissivity was $19.58m^2/day$, the internal friction angle $36.3^{\circ}$, and the saturated unit weight $2.03t/m^3$. The slope stability status was classified into four categories, namely: unconditionally stable, stable, unstable and unconditionally unstable. In order to evaluate the applicability of the SHALSTAB, actual landslide areas were checked, with the unstable area under 263 mm rainfall. 85.1% of them were consistent. And so we can identify the distribution of places at risk of landslides, on the basis of the intensity of rainfall by means of SHALSTAB.

A Study on the Anomaly Prediction System of Drone Using Big Data (빅데이터를 활용한 드론의 이상 예측시스템 연구)

  • Lee, Yang-Kyoo;Hong, Jun-Ki;Hong, Sung-Chan
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2020
  • Recently, big data is rapidly emerging as a core technology in the 4th industrial revolution. Further, the utilization and the demand of drones are continuously increasing with the development of the 4th industrial revolution. However, as the drones usage increases, the risk of drones falling increases. Drones always have a risk of being able to fall easily even with small problems due to its simple structure. In this paper, in order to predict the risk of drone fall and to prevent the fall, ESC (Electronic Speed Control) is attached integrally with the drone's driving motor and the acceleration sensor is stored to collect the vibration data in real time. By processing and monitoring the data in real time and analyzing the data through big data obtained in such a situation using a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm, we proposed a prediction system that minimizes the risk of drone fall by analyzing big data collected from drones.

Usefulness of Triglyceride and Glucose Index to Predict the Risk of Hyperuricemia in Korean Adults (한국 성인에서 고요산혈증 위험을 예측하기 위한 중성지방-혈당 지수의 유용성)

  • Shin, Kyung-A;Kim, Eun Jae
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.283-290
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the triglyceride and glucose(TyG) index to predict the risk of hyperuricemia in Korean adults. This study included 14,266 men and 9,033 women over 20 years old who underwent health screenings from 2017 to 2019 at a general hospital in Seoul. To confirm the risk of hyperuricemia and predictive ability of the TyG index, logistic regression analysis and ROC curves were obtained. The accuracy of the TyG index for predicting hyperuricemia was 0.68, 0.61 for men and 0.67 for women(respectively p<0.001). The risk of hyperuricemia in the TyG index was 1.69 times higher in the fourth quartile than in the first quartile, 2.03 times higher in men and 2.07 times higher in women(respectively p<0.05). Thus the TyG index was not of high diagnostic usefulness as a screening test for hyperuricemia, but it was related to the TyG index and hyperuricemia.

VTS 해역에서 주묘 사례를 통한 주묘 위험성 판단 프로그램의 활용과 시스템 개선방안에 관한 연구

  • Im, Se-Uk;Ji, Min-Gu;Jeong, Chang-Hyeon;Kim, Ju-Seong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2019.11a
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    • pp.1-3
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    • 2019
  • 최근 선박의 대형화, 태풍 및 돌풍 등 급격한 자연환경의 변화, 한정된 정박지의 과밀 등으로 VTS 해역에서 선박 주묘가 자주 발생하고 있다. 선박의 주묘를 예측하기 위해서는 기상 조건에 의한 외력과 선박의 묘, 묘쇄 등 대항력의 정확한 비교, 현수부 및 파주부를 고려한 주묘 발생 가능 시점 예측 등의 노력이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 VTS 관제 구역에서의 주묘 사고 사례 분석을 통하여 주묘 위험성 판단 프로그램을 검증하고, 관제 시스템에서 활용을 위한 시스템 개선 방안을 제안하고자 한다. 향후 관제 시스템의 주묘 위험성 판단 기능 도입을 통하여 주묘 사고의 예방 및 조기 대응이 가능할 것으로 기대한다.

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