• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.485-492
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• 2014

In regards to natural disasters, vulnerability analysis is a component of the disaster risk analysis with one of its objectives as a basis for planning priority setting activities. The volcano eruption raises many casualties and property in the surrounding area, especially when the volcano located in densely populated areas. Volcanic eruptions cannot be prevented, but the risk and vulnerability can be reduced which involve careful planning and preparations that anticipate a future crisis. The social vulnerability as social inequalities with those social factors can influence the susceptibility of various groups to harm and govern their ability to respond. This study carried out the methods of Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) to measure the socially created vulnerability of the people living in Merapi proximal hamlets in Central Java, Indonesia that refers to the socioeconomic and demographic factors that affect the resilience of communities in order to describe and understand the social burdens of risk. Social vulnerability captured here, using a qualitative survey based-data such as interviews to local people with random ages and background to capture the answer vary, also interviews to stakeholders to help define social vulnerability variables. The paper concludes that by constructing the vulnerability index for the hamlets, the study reveals information about the distribution and causes of social vulnerability. The analysis using SoVI confirms that this method works well in ensuring that positive values indicating high social vulnerability and vice versa.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.148-153
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• 2009

Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is one of most widely used methods in modem engineering system to investigate potential failure modes and its severity upon the system. FMECA evaluates criticality and severity of each failure mode and visualize the risk level matrix putting those indices to column and row variable respectably. Generally, those indices are determined subjectively by experts and operators. However, this process has no choice but to include uncertainty. In this paper, a method for eliciting expert opinions considering its uncertainty is proposed to evaluate the criticality and severity. In addition, a fuzzy expert system is constructed in order to determine the crisp value of risk level for each failure mode. Finally, an illustrative example system is analyzed in the case study. The results are worth considering while deciding the proper policies for each component of the system.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.107-120
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• 2017

There are many wildfire risk indices worldwide, but objective comparisons between such various wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices have not been conducted for the wildfire cases in Korea. This paper describes a sensitivity analysis on the wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices for Korea using LDAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System) meteorological dataset on a 1.5-km grid and MODIS(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite images on a 1-km grid. We analyzed the meteorology-based wildfire risk indices such as the Australian FFDI(forest fire danger index), the Canadian FFMC(fine fuel moisture code), the American HI(Haines index), and the academically presented MNI(modified Nesterov index). Also we examined the satellite-based surface dryness indices such as NDDI(normalized difference drought index) and TVDI(temperature vegetation dryness index). As a result of the comparisons between the six indices regarding 120 wildfire cases with the area damaged over 1ha during the period between January 2013 and May 2017, we found that the FFDI and FFMC showed a good predictability for most wildfire cases but the MNI and TVDI were not suitable for Korea. The NDDI can be used as a proxy parameter for wildfire risk because its average CDF(cumulative distribution function) scores were stably high irrespective of fire size. The indices tested in this paper should be carefully chosen and used in an integrated way so that they can contribute to wildfire forecasting in Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.194-200
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 하천부터 하구까지의 댐 구조물 건설로 인해 해안으로의 표사 공급원이 감소하는 것을 정량적으로 검토하였다. 내륙과 해양의 전이역인 연안은 농수산업, 임해산업단지, 발전소 및 항만과 같은 산업 인프라, 관광 및 레크리에이션 등의 다양한 편익을 제공하여 높은 경제 사회 환경적 가치가 있다. 그러나 80년대 이후 무분별하게 추진되어온 각종 연안 개발은 직 간접적인 해안의 침식문제를 발생시켰다. 우리나라 서해의 경우 하천으로부터의 토사 유입 차단은 심각한 수준이다. 아직 그 영향이 해안으로 완전히 파급되지 못하여 그로 인한 장기 해안 침식이 두드러지지 않고 있으나 고파랑에 의한 빈번한 침식과 저질의 세립화 현상을 통하여 현재 진행형임을 알 수 있다. 그러나 일단 피해가 심각해지기 시작하면 돌이킬 수 없는 재앙이 될 측면도 많다. 따라서 우리나라 유역의 개발과 수리구조물 건설 현황을 살펴 이로 인한 해안 침식 결과가 얼마나 심각할 수 있는 지를 살펴본다. 본 연구에서는 수리구조물로 인한 토사량 감소 중 가장 주요한 토사 공급원 감소 원인인 댐으로 인한 토사량 감소율에 대한 연구를 진행한다. 먼저 각 댐의 건설 전, 유역면적당 토사량과 댐 건설 후, 해안 유입 토사량 사이에 감소율을 계산하고, cascade 방법에 의하여 댐군에 의한 토사감소율을 산정한다. 유입 토사량 감소율을 산정하고 토사 공급원 감소로 인한 표사 수지 분석을 통해 해안 침식 폭의 위험도 평가를 실시한다.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2015

This study was performed to determine risk ranking of the combination of pathogen-livestock or livestock products to identify the most significant public health risks and to prioritize risk management strategies. First, we reviewed foodborne outbreak data related to livestock products and determined main vehicles and pathogens according to the number of outbreak and case. Second, expert's opinion about management priority of pathogen-livestock product pairing was surveyed with 19 livestock experts in the university, research center, and government agency. Lastly, we used the outcome of Risk Ranger (semi-quantitative risk ranking tool) of 14 combinations of pathogen and livestock or livestock products. We have classified the combination of pathogen-livestock products into group I (high risk), II (medium risk), and III (low risk) according to their risk levels and management priority. Group I, which is the highest risk for foodborne outbreak, includes Salmonella spp./egg and egg products, Campylobacter spp./poultry, pathogenic E. coli/meat and processed ground meat. In conclusion, the results of this study will provide the specific guideline of mid- and long-term planning for risk assessment and risk management prioritization of the combination of pathogen and livestock, or livestock product.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.10
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• pp.179-186
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• 2019

Based on the characteristics of the weapon system, a government-funded research institute or a defense industry company is selected as the R&D supervision institution. On the other hand, research for the selection of a R&D supervision institution has not been conducted actively. This paper proposes a methodology for selecting R&D supervision institutions, such as procedure and indices. First, candidates of the index were obtained using data investigation and consulting, and five indices were deduced using Delphi. The weight of the indices was set using AHP. The high element consisted of 'Technical elements' and 'Business element'. The low element of 'Technical elements' consisted of 'Possession and readiness of critical technology' and 'Experience of similar R&D'. The low element of 'Business element' consisted of 'Base circumstance of the project', 'Risk management', and 'Will for the project'. The total weights of the indices were 'Possession and readiness of critical technology' 0.405, 'Experience of similar R&D' 0.297, 'Base circumstance of the project' 0.124, 'Risk management' 0.127, and 'Will for the project' 0.047. The indices were applied to the 00 weapon system and the result was deduced.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.109 no.3
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• pp.259-270
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• 2020

Extreme weather events, such as heat and drought, have occurred frequently over the past two decades. This has led to continuous reports of cases of forest damage due to physiological stress, not pest damage. In 2014, pine trees were collectively damaged in the forest genetic resources reserve of Sogwang-ri, Uljin, South Korea. An investigation was launched to determine the causes of the dieback, so that a forest management plan could be prepared to deal with the current dieback, and to prevent future damage. This study aimedto 1) understand the topographic and structural characteristics of the area which experienced pine tree dieback, 2) identify the main causes of the dieback, and 3) predict future risk areas through the use of machine-learning techniques. A model for identifying risk areas was developed using 14 explanatory variables, including location, elevation, slope, and age class. When three machine-learning techniques-Decision Tree, Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to the model, RF and SVM showed higher predictability scores, with accuracies over 93%. Our analysis of the variable set showed that the topographical areas most vulnerable to pine dieback were those with high altitudes, high daily solar radiation, and limited water availability. We also found that, when it came to forest stand characteristics, pine trees with high vertical stand densities (5-15 m high) and higher age classes experienced a higher risk of dieback. The RF and SVM models predicted that 9.5% or 115 ha of the Geumgang Pine Forest are at high risk for pine dieback. Our study suggests the need for further investigation into the vulnerable areas of the Geumgang Pine Forest, and also for climate change adaptive forest management steps to protect those areas which remain undamaged.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.101-101
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• 2017

근래에 대한민국 담수계에 조류 대발생으로 인한 수질악화 문재가 대두되고 있다. 또한 독성물질을 생성하는 남조류종이 우점하는 현상으로인해 수질문제와더불에 생태계와 인간의 건강도 잠재적인 위험을 받고있는 실정이다. 이와같은 조류 대발생으로인한 피해를 최소화하기위해 효과적인 수질관리가 필수적이다. 원격탐사기술은 조류의 공간적인 분포를 해석하고 농도를 정량화하기위해 이용되고 있다. 현재까지 많은 분광알고리즘들이 개발되어 담수유역에 적용이 되고 있다. 수체마다 다른 분광특성 때문에 알고리즘내의 파라미터 및 분광밴드 조정이 필수적이다. 하지만 대부분의 연구에선 파라미터와 밴드의 변경에 따른 결과향상에만 초점이 맞춰지고 있어 분광알고리즘내의 파라미터와 분광밴드사이의 관계 이해 뿐만아니라 알고리즘 최종 산출물에 대한 영향에 관한 설명이 전무한 실정이다. 본 연구에선, 대한민국 백제보를 대상으로 현장모니터링 및 조류추출 실험을 진행하였고, 이를 기반으로 5가지 클로로필a 알고리즘과 2가지 피코시아닌 알고리즘을 구축하였다. 알고리즘내에서 변수들의 관계와 영향을 알아보기위해 민감도 분석을 실시하였다. 민감도 분석 조건을 기반으로 one-objective 최적화 및 multi-objective 최적화를 실시하여 백제보수계를 대표할 수 있는 최적 변수들을 모의하였다. 민감도 분석결과 후방산란계수에 영향을 미치는 파라미터와 조류 생체량에 영향을 미치는 파라미터가 다른 변수들 및 알고리즘 농도산정결과에 가장 민감한 것으로 나타났다. multi-objective 최적화 결과가 one-objective 결과 및 reference 결과보다 대부분 정확도가 향상되었고 흡광도 계수를 함께 고려할 수 있기 때문에 백제보 수계의 분광특성을 함께 고려하여 대표할 수 있는 장점을 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서, 본 연구는 민감도 분석을 활용하여 분광알고리즘 내의 변수들의 이해를 도모하였고, 최적화 기법 중, multi-objective 최적화 기법이 백제보의 분광특성을 대변하는 최적변수를 제시할 수 있음과 동시에 보다 나은 정확성을 제고할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.34-43
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• 2020

Purpose: In this study, we will try to find out problems and improvements of the policies in order to verify whether the plans contribute to the health and welfare of the firefighters properly. Method: By the Delphi analysis by experts. Result: There are problems such as absence of Firefighters' hospital, insufficient mental health education program in fire department, lack of on-site risk assessment system, problem on ineffectiveness of mental and physical health care business, lack of substantiality on mental and physical stability program, absence of mental health education, ensuring the confidentiality for users of mental health programs, lack of support for parent firefighters, lack of firefighters' retirement design and insufficient treatment for female firefighters. Conclusion: There are Improvements such as establishing Firefighters' hospital, improving mental health education and training CISD leaders in the fire department, preparing disaster risk assessment system, effectiveness measurement for visiting psychological counseling projects, improving the program through customer satisfaction surveys, establishment of mental health education system, ensuring confidentiality by improving personnel systems, encourage childcare leave and introduce childcare facilities at fire stations, revitalizing retirement Firefighters and policy development for female firefighters.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.21 no.spc
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• pp.149-156
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• 2019

Assessing the hydrological safety of existing dams against climate change and providing appropriate adaptation measures are important in terms of sustainable water supply and management. Korean major dams ensure their safety through periodic inspections and maintenance according to 'Special Act on the safety control and maintenance of establishments'. Especially when performing a full safety examination, principal engineer must assess the hydrological safety and prepare for potential risks. This study employed future probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimated using outputs of regional climate models based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse-gas emission scenarios to assess climate change impact on existing dam's future hydrological safety. The analysis period was selected from 2011 to 2040, from 2041 to 2070, and from 2071 to 2100. Evaluating the potential risk based on the future probable maximum flood (PMF) for four major dams (A, B, C, I) showed that climate change could induce increasing the overflow risk on three dams (A, B, I), although there are small differences depending on the RCP scenarios and the analysis periods. Our results suggested that dam managers should consider both non-structural measures and structural measures to adapt to the expected climate change.