• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험성예측모델

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Method of Earthquake Acceleration Estimation for Predicting Damage to Arbitrary Location Structures based on Artificial Intelligence (임의 위치 구조물의 손상예측을 위한 인공지능 기반 지진가속도 추정방법 )

  • Kyeong-Seok Lee;Young-Deuk Seo;Eun-Rim Baek
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2023
  • It is not efficient to install a maintenance system that measures seismic acceleration and displacement on all bridges and buildings to evaluate the safety of structures after an earthquake occurs. In order to maintain this, an on-site investigation is conducted. Therefore, it takes a lot of time when the scope of the investigation is wide. As a result, secondary damage may occur, so it is necessary to predict the safety of individual structures quickly. The method of estimating earthquake damage of a structure includes a finite element analysis method using approved seismic information and a structural analysis model. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the seismic information generated at arbitrary location in order to quickly determine structure damage. In this study, methods to predict the ground response spectrum and acceleration time history at arbitrary location using linear estimation methods, and artificial neural network learning methods based on seismic observation data were proposed and their applicability was evaluated. In the case of the linear estimation method, the error was small when the locations of nearby observatories were gathered, but the error increased significantly when it was spread. In the case of the artificial neural network learning method, it could be estimated with a lower level of error under the same conditions.

A Study on the Flow Assurance in Subsea Pipeline Considering System Availability of Topside in LNG-FPSO (LNG-FPSO에서 상부구조물의 시스템 가용도를 고려한 해저 배관의 유동안정성 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Min;Choi, Jun-Ho;Lee, Jeong-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.18-27
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    • 2020
  • This study presents flow assurance analysis in subsea pipeline considering system availability of topside in LNG-FPSO. A hydrate management strategy was established, which consisted of PVCap experiments, system availability analysis of LNG-FPSO topside, hydrate risk analysis in the pipeline, and calculation of PVCap injection concentration. The experimental data required for the determination of PVCap injection concentration were obtained by measuring the hydrate induction time of PVCap at the subcooling temperatures of 6.1, 9.2, and 12.1℃. The availability of LNG-FPSO topside system for 20 years was 89.3%, and the longest downtime of 50 hours occurred 2.9 times per year. The subsea pipeline model for multiphase flow simulation was created using field geometry data. As a result of risk analysis of hydrate plugging using subsea pipeline model, hydrate was formed at the end of flowline in 23.2 hours under the condition of 50 hours shutdown. The injection concentration of PVCap was determined based on the PVCap experiment results. The hydrate plugging in subsea pipeline of LNG-FPSO can be completely prevented by injecting PVCap 0.25 wt% 2.9 times per year.

The Real Scale Fire Test for Fire Safety in Apartment Housing (실물화재실험을 통한 공동주택의 화재안전성 연구)

  • Yoo, Yong-Ho;Kweon, Oh-Sang;Kim, Heung-Youl
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2009
  • This study was intended to conduct a Real-scale fire test to predict the fire behavior by unit space at the apartment building where a huge casualties and injuries are likely. After setting the inflammables inside the house, the test aimed to identify the fire characteristics to each unit item was carried out. The house was divided into 4 unit space such as kitchen, living room, bedroom and a study for a real scale fire test. As a result, bedroom reached to flashover state in 5minutes after setting the fire, indicating a rapid fire growth such as 7433.3kW of maximum thermal emissivity, 578.6ppm of carbon monoxide, 1.25ppm of carbon dioxide and $1,350^{\circ}C$ of maximum indoor temperature. Particularly, the fire growth was made up to critical temperature which might cause a severe damage to the people within 3minutes, if the fire were not extinguished at inflammable space at the early stage of fire, which stressed the need of early response. The result of a real scale fire test could be compared with the outcome of expanded simulation test and used in predicting the fire spread at the space for different use.

Development on Model for Checkdam Location Selection (GIS기법을 이용한 사방댐 입지선정 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Ki-Heung;Jung, Hea-Reyn;Park, Sang-Heyn;Ma, Ho-Seop;Park, Jae-Hyeon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.1817-1821
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서의 지리정보시스템(GIS)을 이용한 사방댐 입지선정모델 개발은 산사태 발생 예측을 위한 사면안정성 평가 기준을 개발하여 사방댐 지점을 선정하기 위하여 체계적으로 표준화된 시스템을 구축하는 것이 목표이며, 2002년 태풍 '루사'와 2003년 태풍 '매미'에 의하여 토석류와 산사태가 발생한 서부경남 지역의 38개 지점에 대하여 항공사진 수집 및 현장조사를 수행하고, 산사태 발생에 관계되는 강우, 지형, 지질 및 토양, 임상 등을 인자로서 규정하였다. 연구결과 서부경남지역에서 발생한 산사태는 지리산, 가야산, 좌굴산 등 EL. 500m 이상의 비교적 고도가 높은 산악지역에서 지형성 집중호우에 의하여 발생하는 것으로 분석되었으며, 강우량과 산사태의 상관분석결과 시강우량 70mm 이상 및 누가강우량 230mm 이상에서 산사태의 발생빈도가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 산사태 발생지점에서의 고도(평균해수면 기준)와 능선의 고도와의 비를 백분율로 계산하여 빈도를 살펴보면 산사태 발생지점이 능선의 90% 이상의 고도에서 산사태의 발생빈도가 53%로 가장 높고, 80-90%는 21%, 70-80% 16%의 순으로 산사태 발생빈도가 감소하고 있으며, 고도가 더욱 낮아져 산사태 발생지점이 60% 이하로 내려가면 산사태 발생빈도는 급격히 감소한다. 예를 들어 능선의 고도가 1000m일 경우 900m 이상의 고도(90% 이상)에서 산사태 발생빈도가 가장 높고 600m 이하의 고도(70% 이하)에서는 발생빈도가 급격히 저하하는 것으로 나타났다. 산사태 발생지점의 표면 굴곡도에 따른 산사태의 발생빈도는 대부분의 평행사면에서 74%, 약간 오목사면에서 26%가 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 각 지구의 지질 및 토양별 산사태 발생빈도는 화성암계열의 지질 및 자갈/암괴 섞인 토사의 토양에서 발생하는 것으로 분석되었고, $34-40^{\circ}$ 사면경사에서 40%, $26-34^{\circ}$ 사면경사에서 26%, $26^{\circ}$ 이하의 사면경사에서 22%가 주로 발생하였으며, $40^{\circ}$ 이상의 높은 사면경사에서는 극히 미미하였다. 또한 임상 기준으로는 침엽수림에서 주로 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서는 이상의 결과를 기초로 매우 안정, 안정, 부분적 안정, 불안정, 매우 불안정, 위험 지역으로 구분하고, 평가한 결과는 불안정 33개소, 매우 불안정 5개소 등 38개소 지점 모두에 사방댐 설치가 필요한 것으로 분석되었다.

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Review of the Weather Hazard Research: Focused on Typhoon, Heavy Rain, Drought, Heat Wave, Cold Surge, Heavy Snow, and Strong Gust (위험기상 분야의 지난 연구를 뒤돌아보며: 태풍, 집중호우, 가뭄, 폭염, 한파, 강설, 강풍을 중심으로)

  • Chang-Hoi Ho;Byung-Gon Kim;Baek-Min Kim;Doo-Sun R. Park;Chang-Kyun Park;Seok-Woo Son;Jee-Hoon Jeong;Dong-Hyun Cha
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.223-246
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    • 2023
  • This paper summarized the research papers on weather extremes that occurred in the Republic of Korea, which were published in the domestic and foreign journals during 1963~2022. Weather extreme is defined as a weather phenomenon that causes serious casualty and property loss; here, it includes typhoon, heavy rain, drought, heat wave, cold surge, heavy snow, and strong gust. Based on the 2011~2020 statistics in Korea, above 80% of property loss due to all natural disasters were caused by typhoons and heavy rainfalls. However, the impact of the other weather extremes can be underestimated rather than we have actually experienced; the property loss caused by the other extremes is hard to be quantitatively counted. Particularly, as global warming becomes serious, the influence of drought and heat wave has been increasing. The damages caused by cold surges, heavy snow, and strong gust occurred over relatively local areas on short-term time scales compared to other weather hazards. In particularly, strong gust accompanied with drought may result in severe forest fires over mountainous regions. We hope that the present review paper may remind us of the importance of weather extremes that directly affect our lives.

A Study on Defense and Attack Model for Cyber Command Control System based Cyber Kill Chain (사이버 킬체인 기반 사이버 지휘통제체계 방어 및 공격 모델 연구)

  • Lee, Jung-Sik;Cho, Sung-Young;Oh, Heang-Rok;Han, Myung-Mook
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2021
  • Cyber Kill Chain is derived from Kill chain of traditional military terms. Kill chain means "a continuous and cyclical process from detection to destruction of military targets requiring destruction, or dividing it into several distinct actions." The kill chain has evolved the existing operational procedures to effectively deal with time-limited emergency targets that require immediate response due to changes in location and increased risk, such as nuclear weapons and missiles. It began with the military concept of incapacitating the attacker's intended purpose by preventing it from functioning at any one stage of the process of reaching it. Thus the basic concept of the cyber kill chain is that the attack performed by a cyber attacker consists of each stage, and the cyber attacker can achieve the attack goal only when each stage is successfully performed, and from a defense point of view, each stage is detailed. It is believed that if a response procedure is prepared and responded, the chain of attacks is broken, and the attack of the attacker can be neutralized or delayed. Also, from the point of view of an attack, if a specific response procedure is prepared at each stage, the chain of attacks can be successful and the target of the attack can be neutralized. The cyber command and control system is a system that is applied to both defense and attack, and should present defensive countermeasures and offensive countermeasures to neutralize the enemy's kill chain during defense, and each step-by-step procedure to neutralize the enemy when attacking. Therefore, thist paper proposed a cyber kill chain model from the perspective of defense and attack of the cyber command and control system, and also researched and presented the threat classification/analysis/prediction framework of the cyber command and control system from the defense aspect

모바일 증권 서비스 이용에 관한 연구

  • Lee Min-Hwa;Kwon Hyun Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Association of Information Systems Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.55-73
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    • 2003
  • As the development of wireless technologies continue, mobile stock trading has become a new channel for companies to reach their customers. This study examines the factors affecting customer acceptance of mobile stock trading services. The research model based on the previous studies was established and the research hypotheses were generated. The sample was divided into users and nonuser groups. The test results show that relative advantage and social influence are positively related to intention to accept mobile services as well as in intention to reuse, security risk is negatively related to intention to reuse, frequency of trading is positively related to intention to reuse, cost burden is negatively related to the probability of using mobile stock trading services, and social influence is positively related to the probability of using mobile services. The results also support that information quality and response time are positively related to relative advantage, and interface quality is negatively related to complexity. It is considered that the study results may help managers to increase customer use of mobile stock trading services.

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Explosion Characteristics and Flame Velocity of Suspended Plastic Powders (플라스틱 부유 분진의 폭발특성과 화염전파속도)

  • Han, Ou Sup;Lee, Keun Won
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.367-373
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    • 2016
  • Many of plastic powders handled in industry are combustible and have the hazard of dust fire and explosion accidents. However poor information about the safe handling has been presented in the production works. The aim of this research is investigated experimentally on explosive characteristics of various plastic powders used in industry and to provide additional data with safety informations. The explosibility parameters investigated using standard dust explosibility test equipment of Siwek 20-L explosion chamber. As the results, the dust explosion index ($K_{st}$) of ABS ($209.8{\mu}m$), PE ($81.8{\mu}m$), PBT ($21.3{\mu}m$), MBS ($26.7{\mu}m$) and PMMA ($14.3{\mu}m$) are 62.4, 59.4, 70.3, 303 and 203.6[$bar{\cdot}m/s$], respectively. And flame propagation velocity during plastic dust explosions for prediction of explosive damage was estimated using a flame propagation model based on the time to peak pressure and flame arrival time in dust explosion pressure assuming the constant burning velocity.

Design and Implementation of a Hadoop-based Efficient Security Log Analysis System (하둡 기반의 효율적인 보안로그 분석시스템 설계 및 구현)

  • Ahn, Kwang-Min;Lee, Jong-Yoon;Yang, Dong-Min;Lee, Bong-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.19 no.8
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    • pp.1797-1804
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    • 2015
  • Integrated log management system can help to predict the risk of security and contributes to improve the security level of the organization, and leads to prepare an appropriate security policy. In this paper, we have designed and implemented a Hadoop-based log analysis system by using distributed database model which can store large amount of data and reduce analysis time by automating log collecting procedure. In the proposed system, we use the HBase in order to store a large amount of data efficiently in the scale-out fashion and propose an easy data storing scheme for analysing data using a Hadoop-based normal expression, which results in improving data processing speed compared to the existing system.

한강유역의 3개보(강천보, 여주보, 이포보)건설로 인한 남한강 유역의 공사 전.후의 수리 분석

  • Lee, Gyeong-Yeong;Seong, Seu;Park, Sang-Cheol
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.441-441
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    • 2011
  • 정부에서 기후변화로 인한 홍수와 가뭄, 수질개선 등 물 문제 해결을 위해 시행하고 있는 4대 강사업을 아직도 언론이나 환경단체, 대다수의 국민들이 보 건설로 인해 홍수의 위험성이 높아지고, 수질이 악화되어 생태계와 생명이 파괴된다고 오해하고 있다. 이런 오해를 불식시키기 위해 남한강유역의 보 건설 공사 전 후의 발생 가능한 수리변화 예측을 통하여 4대강사업에 따른 수리 수질 논란에 대비하고, 기존의 수위-유량 곡선식 및 홍수분석시스템 변화에 따른 개선을 통하여 보 건설 후 댐과 보의 운영시 각 보 지점의 수리분석을 통해 적절한 방류 규모, 시기를 결정하고 하류영향을 효과적으로 분석하는 등 환경변화에 대한 사전 대책마련을 위해 EFDC 모형을 구축하였다. 본 연구는 한강유역의 팔당댐을 기준으로 북한강 10km, 경안천 10km, 남한강 65km 구간의 공사 전 후 수위변화를 분석하기위해 남한강 유역의 2006년도부터 2010년까지의 여주, 이포, 양평 수위국의 최고수위 기간을 조사하여, 최고기간인 2006년 7월 15일부터 17일에 발생한 태풍 에위니아의 첨두유량(13,022CMS)을 사용하였고, 하천단면 측량자료는 2010년에 실시한 보 공사구간 횡단면도와 준설 후 계획 횡단면도와 과거 측량자료를 이용하였고, 총 3,794개의 격자망을 평균 $200m\times80m$ 간격으로 구성하여 3차원 수리/수질 모델 프로그램인 EFDC를 사용하여 수리모델링을 실시하여 보 건설 전 후의 수위변화를 모델링 하였다. 모델링 결과 남한강 상류인 강천보 지점의 수위 저감효과가 최대 2.0m로 가장 큰 효과를 보였으며, 상대적으로 남한강의 하류인 여주보 지점은 최대 1.5m, 이포보 지점은 상대적으로 작은 1.0m 정도의 수위 저감효과를 확인할 수 있었다. 그리고 이포보 하류의 양평수위국 지점과 북한강, 남한강, 경안천이 합류되는 팔당댐 상류 지점의 경우 모델링 결과 공사 전 후 수위 차이가 없는 것으로 보아 보 건설이 남한강 하류 지점에는 큰 영향을 끼치지 않는 것으로 판단된다. 이처럼 EFDC 모형을 이용하여 정밀 수리모형 검토를 통해 수위변화를 비교해 본 결과 지점별로 약간의 차이는 발생하지만 보 건설을 통하여 수위 저감효과가 발생하는 것으로 판단된다. 보다 정확한 검토를 위해 추후에는 남한강 상류의 강천수위국 상류지점의 검토와 남한강유역의 지류 유입량을 추가하여 모델링을 실시하면 보다 더 정밀한 분석이 가능할 것이라고 판단된다.

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