• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험도모델

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Accuracy Evaluation of 3D Slope Model Produced by Drone Taken Images (드론 촬영으로 작성한 비탈면 3차원 모델의 품질 분석)

  • Kang, Inkyu;Kim, Taesik
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.13-17
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    • 2020
  • In the era of the fourth industrial revolution, drones are being used in various civil engineering fields. Currently, the construction and maintenance of slopes are generally managed by manpower. This method has a risk of safety accidents, and it is difficult to accurately evaluate the slope because it is difficult to secure the vision. In this paper, the effects of RTK and GCP on the 3D model of the slope were studied by using digital images taken by the drone. GNSS coordinates were measured for nine points to compare the quality of the slope 3D model, three points of which were used as the check points and the remaining points were used as GCPs. When making the 3D model of the slope using high-accuracy geotagging images using RTK, it was found that the error at the check point decreases as the number of GCP increases. Even if GNSS was used, it was found that the error at the check points of the 3D slope model was not significant when the GCPs were applied. However, it was found that even if high-accuracy geotagging images are used using the RTK module, a significant error occur when the 3D slope model is created without applying GCPs. Therefore, it can be stated that GCP must be applied to create the 3D slope model in which information about the height as well as plane information is important.

Prediction model of osteoporosis using nutritional components based on association (연관성 규칙 기반 영양소를 이용한 골다공증 예측 모델)

  • Yoo, JungHun;Lee, Bum Ju
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.457-462
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    • 2020
  • Osteoporosis is a disease that occurs mainly in the elderly and increases the risk of fractures due to structural deterioration of bone mass and tissues. The purpose of this study are to assess the relationship between nutritional components and osteoporosis and to evaluate models for predicting osteoporosis based on nutrient components. In experimental method, association was performed using binary logistic regression, and predictive models were generated using the naive Bayes algorithm and variable subset selection methods. The analysis results for single variables indicated that food intake and vitamin B2 showed the highest value of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting osteoporosis in men. In women, monounsaturated fatty acids showed the highest AUC value. In prediction model of female osteoporosis, the models generated by the correlation based feature subset and wrapper based variable subset methods showed an AUC value of 0.662. In men, the model by the full variable obtained an AUC of 0.626, and in other male models, the predictive performance was very low in sensitivity and 1-specificity. The results of these studies are expected to be used as the basic information for the treatment and prevention of osteoporosis.

Optimized Feature Selection using Feature Subset IG-MLP Evaluation based Machine Learning Model for Disease Prediction (특징집합 IG-MLP 평가 기반의 최적화된 특징선택 방법을 이용한 질환 예측 머신러닝 모델)

  • Kim, Kyeongryun;Kim, Jaekwon;Lee, Jongsik
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2020
  • Cardio-cerebrovascular diseases (CCD) account for 24% of the causes of death to Koreans and its proportion is the highest except cancer. Currently, the risk of the cardiovascular disease for domestic patients is based on the Framingham risk score (FRS), but accuracy tends to decrease because it is a foreign guideline. Also, it can't score the risk of cerebrovascular disease. CCD is hard to predict, because it is difficult to analyze the features of early symptoms for prevention. Therefore, proper prediction method for Koreans is needed. The purpose of this paper is validating IG-MLP (Information Gain - Multilayer Perceptron) evaluation based feature selection method using CCD data with simulation. The proposed method uses the raw data of the 4th ~ 7th of The Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). To select the important feature of CCD, analysis on the attributes using IG-MLP are processed, finally CCD prediction ANN model using optimize feature set is provided. Proposed method can find important features of CCD prediction of Koreans, and ANN model could predict more accurate CCD for Koreans.

Factors Affecting Elderly People's Intention to Use of Digital Wealth Management Services (고령자들의 디지털 자산관리 서비스 이용의도에 영향을 미치는 특성 및 요인)

  • Kwak, Jae-Hyuk;Dong, Hak-Lim
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.411-422
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to identify factors that affect the characteristics and intentions of the elderly to use digital wealth management services. The subjects of this study were 312 elderly people over 50 years old. Based on the Value-based Adoption Model(VAM), the research model added price value, social influence, and perceived risk as research variables. As a result of empirical analysis, it was found that usefulness, enjoyment, price value, and social influence all had a significant positive (+) effect on perceived value. It was found that technicality had a significant negative (-) effect. On the other hand, no significant effect relationship was tested on perceived risk. The perceived value had a significant positive (+) effect on the intention to use. This study was meaningful in the academic research that it applied a research model that reflected the characteristics of the elderly who were not treated as mainstream in the technology acceptance model for digital wealth management services. In addition, it provided practical implications for providers' marketing strategies and government/public institution policy establishment to increase the use of digital wealth management services for the elderly.

Implementation of a Web-Based Early Warning System for Meteorological Hazards (기상위험 조기경보를 위한 웹기반 표출시스템 구현)

  • Kong, In Hak;Kim, Hong Joong;Oh, Jai Ho;Lee, Yang Won
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2016
  • Numeric weather prediction is important to prevent meteorological disasters such as heavy rain, heat wave, and cold wave. The Korea meteorological administration provides a realtime special weather report and the rural development administration demonstrates information about 2-day warning of agricultural disasters for farms in a few regions. To improve the early warning systems for meteorological hazards, a nation-wide high-resolution dataset for weather prediction should be combined with web-based GIS. This study aims to develop a web service prototype for early warning of meteorological hazards, which integrates web GIS technologies with a weather prediction database in a temporal resolution of 1 hour and a spatial resolution of 1 km. The spatially and temporally high-resolution dataset for meteorological hazards produced by downscaling of GME was serviced via a web GIS. In addition to the information about current status of meteorological hazards, the proposed system provides the hourly dong-level forecasting of meteorologic hazards for upcoming seven days, such as heavy rain, heat wave, and cold wave. This system can be utilized as an operational information service for municipal governments in Korea by achieving the future work to improve the accuracy of numeric weather predictions and the preprocessing time for raster and vector dataset.

Risk-Targeted Seismic Performance of Steel Ordinary Concentrically Braced Frames Considering Seismic Hazard (지진재해도를 고려한 철골 보통중심가새골조의 위험도기반 내진성능)

  • Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Hong, Suk-Jae;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.371-380
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    • 2017
  • The risk-targeted seismic design concept was first included in ASCE/SEI 7-10 to address problems related to the uniform-hazard based seismic concept that has been constructed without explicitly considering probabilistic uncertainties in the collapse capacities of structures. However, this concept is not yet reflected to the current Korean building code(KBC) because of insufficient strong earthquake data occurred at the Korean peninsula and little information on the collapse capacities of structures. This study evaluates the risk-targeted seismic performance of steel ordinary concentrically braced frames(OCBFs). To do this, the collapse capacities of prototype steel OCBFs are assessed with various analysis parameters including building locations, building heights and soil conditions. The seismic hazard curves are developed using an empirical spectral shape prediction model that is capable of reflecting the characteristics of earthquake records. The collapse probabilities of the prototype steel OCBFs located at the Korean major cities are then evaluated using the risk integral concept. As a result, analysis parameters considerably influence the collapse probabilities of steel OCBFs. The collapse probabilities of taller steel OCBFs exceed the target seismic risk of 1 percent in 50 years, which the introduction of the height limitation of steel OCBFs into the future KBC should be considered.

A study on prediction method for flood risk using LENS and flood risk matrix (국지 앙상블자료와 홍수위험매트릭스를 이용한 홍수위험도 예측 방법 연구)

  • Choi, Cheonkyu;Kim, Kyungtak;Choi, Yunseok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.9
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    • pp.657-668
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    • 2022
  • With the occurrence of localized heavy rain while river flow has increased, both flow and rainfall cause riverside flood damages. As the degree of damage varies according to the level of social and economic impact, it is required to secure sufficient forecast lead time for flood response in areas with high population and asset density. In this study, the author established a flood risk matrix using ensemble rainfall runoff modeling and evaluated its applicability in order to increase the damage reduction effect by securing the time required for flood response. The flood risk matrix constructs the flood damage impact level (X-axis) using flood damage data and predicts the likelihood of flood occurrence (Y-axis) according to the result of ensemble rainfall runoff modeling using LENS rainfall data and as well as probabilistic forecasting. Therefore, the author introduced a method for determining the impact level of flood damage using historical flood damage data and quantitative flood damage assessment methods. It was compared with the existing flood warning data and the damage situation at the flood warning points in the Taehwa River Basin and the Hyeongsan River Basin in the Nakdong River Region. As a result, the analysis showed that it was possible to predict the time and degree of flood risk from up to three days in advance. Hence, it will be helpful for damage reduction activities by securing the lead time for flood response.

Study on the Risk Assessment of Collision Accidents Between Island Bridge and Ship Using an Image Processing Method (영상처리기법을 활용한 연도교와 선박간의 충돌사고 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Da-Un Jang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.7
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    • pp.1111-1119
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    • 2022
  • Tourism projects through islands in the waters of Sinan-gun became active, and as a result, a total of 13 marine bridges connecting islands were completed. However, the marine bridge constructed in the fairway is dangerous for traffic. Particularly, in the case of the marine bridge connecting two islands, the width of the fairway is extremely narrow, therefore the risk is higher. In this study, we evaluated the risk of collision between marine bridge piers and ships using the IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Program (IWRAP), a risk assessment model for port waterways, based on a maritime traffic survey on the coastal bridge in Sinan-gun. The results, indicated that No.1 Sinan bridge had the highest probability of collision and most of the transit ships were coastal passenger ships. In addition, No.1 Sinan bridge was the place where the most collision accidents occurred among the marine bridge piers in the target sea, and the cause this study was analyzed. An analysis of the satellite images of the sea environment of No.1 Sinan bridge using an image processing method, confirmed that obstacles that could not be seen in the chart existed nearby the bridge. As a result, traffic was observed to be concentrated in one direction, unlike two-way traffic, which is a method of inducing traffic of bridges to avoid obstacles. The risk cause analysis method using the image processing technique of this study is expected to be used as a basic research method for analyzing the risk factors of island bridge in the future.

The Eire Risk Assessment in Compressed Natural Gas Buses & Gas Station (CNG 버스 및 충전소의 화재 위험도 평가)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Kim, Hyo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.57-67
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    • 2004
  • The results of the risk assessing on general buses, consisting mainly of diesel-fueled buses, show that the frequency of the instantaneous release is 1.4${\times}$10$^{-3}$ /bus/year, from which the probability of the formation of fireball as a sub event becomes 1.7${\times}$104, and show that the leakage from the CNG-fueled buses is 0.002 event/year. Also, the frequency of gradual release due to a crack is estimated at 3.7${\times}$10$^{-3}$ /buses/year, and a subsequent probability at which this could lead to a jet flame as a sub event is 1.2${\times}$10$^{-3}$ This corresponds to 0.04event/year for the CNG-fueled buses. Dividing all the fired casualties by the running distance of diesel-fueled buses, the risk is 0.091 fire fatalities per 100-million miles. And the total fire risk fur CNG buses is approximately 0.17 per 100-million miles of travel. This means that CNG buses is twice or more dangerous than diesel buses. After all CNG buses are more susceptible to the major fires. In the aspect of the reliability of this study, generic models and the failure data used in assessing the risks of CNG buses are appropriate. However, more accurate physics-based models and databases should be supplemented with this study to provide the better results.

A Study on the Safety Improvement of Vessel Traffic in the Busan New Port Entrance (부산신항 진출입 항로 내 선박 통항 안전성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Bong-kwon;Park, Young-soo;Kim, Nieun;Kim, Sora;Park, Hyungoo;Shin, Dongsu
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.321-330
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    • 2022
  • Busan New Port manages the largest volume of traffic among Korean ports, and accounts for 68.5% of the total volume of the Busan port. Due to this increase in volume, ultra large container ships call at Busan New Port. When the additional south container terminal as well as ongoing construction project of the west container terminal are completed, various encounters may occur at the Busan New Port entrance, which may cause collision risk.s Thus, the purpose of this study was to provide a plan to improve the safety of vessel traffic, in the in/out bound fairway of Busan New Port. For this purpose, the status of arrivals and departures of vessels in Busan New Port, was examined through maritime traffic flow analysis. Additionally, risk factors and safety measures were identified, by AHP analysis with ship operators of the study area. Also, based on the derived safety measures, scenarios were set using the Environmental Stress model (ES model), and the traffic risk level of each safety measure was identified through simulation. As a result, it is expected that setting the no entry area for one-way traffic would have a significant effect on mitigating risks at the Busan New Port entrance. This study can serve as a basis for preparing safety measures, to improve the navigation of vessels using Busan New Port. If safety measures are prepared in the future, it is necessary to verify the safety by using the traffic volume and flow changes according to the newly-opened berths.