• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험도모델

Search Result 440, Processing Time 0.021 seconds

A Study on the Risk Assessment by Obstacles in Ship's Passage (선박 통항로 내 장해물에 따른 위험도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ni-Eun;Park, Young-Soo;Park, Sang-Won;Kim, So-Ra;Lee, Myoung-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.28 no.2
    • /
    • pp.244-253
    • /
    • 2022
  • Recently, installation projects of structures such as offshore wind farms have been increasing, and the installation of such marine obstacles could affect ships that pass nearby. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the risk posed to passing ships due to obstacles in their passage. Hence, parameters that affected the risk were selected, and scenarios were set based on the parameters. The scenarios were evaluated through the ES model, which is a risk assessment model, and we confirmed that the risk ratio increased as the size of the obstacle increased, the safe distance from the obstacle increased, the speed of ship decreased, and the traffic volume increased. Additionally, we found that when the traffic flow direction was designated, the risk ratio was lower than that of general traffic flow. In this study, we proposed a generalization model based on the results of the performed scenarios, applied it to the Dadaepo offshore wind farm, and demonstrated that the estimation of the approximate risk ratio was possible through the generalization model. Finally, we judged that the generalization model proposed in this study could be used as a preliminary reference for the installation of marine obstacles.

Research of a Methodology for a Liquid Rocket Engine Development (액체로켓엔진 개발을 위한 위기관리 방법론 연구)

  • Moon, In-Sang;Jeong, Yong-Hyun;Kim, Cheul-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
    • /
    • 2006.11a
    • /
    • pp.211-215
    • /
    • 2006
  • It is a known fact that much effort, time and cost are needed to develop a new launch vehicle. Among the many components consisting of the launch vehicle, a rocket engine is a one of the most important and difficult part to develop in which many risks may lie dormant because very active chemical reaction occurs inside the engine while the engine is also required optimum ratio of the mass and performance. This research focused on the risk mitigation to develop the rocket engine using the example of recently developed US rocket engine.

  • PDF

Applicability of FDS for the Fire Hazard Analysis of the Fire Zone at Nuclear Power Plants (원전 화재방호구역의 화재위험 분석을 위한 FDS 적용성)

  • Jee, Moon-Hak;Lee, Byung-Kon
    • Fire Science and Engineering
    • /
    • v.20 no.4 s.64
    • /
    • pp.13-18
    • /
    • 2006
  • The fire protection regulation for the nuclear power plants is based on the qualitative fire hazard assessment and the quantitative fire risk analysis, and the fire risk is managed by the fire protection plan with the appropriate balance among the fire prevention, fire suppression and the minimization of the fire effect. In these days, the zone model or the field model is generally used for the detail evaluation for the fire risk. At this paper, with consideration of the present trend, we evaluate whether the quantitative fire risk analysis and the assessment of fire result for fire areas at nuclear power plants can be possible by use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) that is the state-of-the-art fire modeling tool. Consequently, it is expected that the quantitative fire risk evaluation propelled by the fire modeling can be available as an applicable tool to improve the core damage frequency as well as the quantitative fire risk analysis.

Design Route Analysis of Dangerous Road for Traffic Accident using GIS (GIS를 이용한 사고 위험도로의 설계노선 분석)

  • Lee, Kye-Dong;Jung, Sung-Heuk;Lee, Jae-Kee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.26 no.6
    • /
    • pp.591-598
    • /
    • 2008
  • Recently, the government has improvement projects of dangerous road for the site that has very high accident rate due to bad geometric structures of the road. Although, route selecting of the road is a basic and important process, but the process of route selecting must consider the technical, safety and environment factor together. Also, the technology for the 3-dimensional terrain model can be used as an important factor in planning and designing for selecting alternative route projects. In the course of experimenting with the 3-dimensional topography generated by the combination of the digital map and drawing of route, the technology as been developed to offer the multi-dimensional access to the potential construction sites from the nearby main roads. This 3-dimensional digital elevation model has made it possible to make various terrain analysis base on GIS, which provides real-time virtual access to the designated construction sites for development planning and construction projects. Therefore, this study presents a reasonable plan for route selecting from some alternative routes through subjective evaluation and classify the methods linked basic design of road construction.

Application of Geomorphological Features for Establishing the Preliminary Landslide Hazard (초기 산사태 위험도 구축을 위한 지형요소의 활용)

  • Cha, A Reum;Kim, Tai Hoon;Gang, Seok Koo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
    • /
    • v.23 no.3
    • /
    • pp.23-29
    • /
    • 2015
  • Due to the characteristics of landslide disasters including debris flow, the rapid speed to downward and difficulty to respond or evacuate from them, it is imperative to identify their potential hazards and prepare the reduction plans. However, the current landslide hazards generated by a variety of methods has been raised its accuracy because of the complexity of input data and their analyses, and the simplification of the landslide model. The main objective of this study is, therefore, to evaluate the preliminary landslide hazard based on the identification of geomorphological features. Especially, two methodologies based on the statistics of the directional data, Vector dispersion and Planarity analyses, are used to find some relationships between geomorphological characteristics and the landslide hazard. Results show that both methods well discriminate geomorphological features between stable and unstable domains in the landslide areas. Geomorphological features are closely related to the landslide hazard and it is imperative to maximize their characteristics by adapting multiple models rather than individual model only. In conclusions, the mechanism of landslide is not determined solely by a simple cause but the complex natural phenomenon caused by the interactions of the numerous factors and it is of primary importance to require additional researches for the outbreaking mechanism that are based on various methodologies.

Proposal for Safer Routing Services in Car Navigation Systems based on an Inundation Hazard Index of Road Links (침수위험지수를 활용한 안전한 경로탐색서비스 제안)

  • Kim, Ji-Young;Kim, Ki-Rack;Bae, Young-Eun;Yu, Ki-Yun
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2010.02a
    • /
    • pp.46.1-46.1
    • /
    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서 우리는 폭우로 인하여 도로의 일부 또는 전체가 침수되는 경우 침수정보를 바탕으로 생성된 안전한 경로탐색을 차량 내비게이션 사용자에게 제공하는 서비스를 제안한다. 이를 위하여 수치고도모델(DEM)을 활용한 공간분석과 폭우로 도로침수가 발생된 일자의 이력강수량을 기반으로 도로링크별 침수위험지수를 생성하였다. 이렇게 생성된 침수위험지수를 이용하여 실제 내비게이션 환경에 시나리오별로 적용해 봄으로써 그 활용가능성을 살펴보았다. 그 결과 기존의 최단경로를 서비스하는 것과 비교시 보다 안전한 경로를 탐색하는 것으로 분석되었다. 그러나 보다 정교하고 정확한 서비스를 위하여서는 도로침수와 관련된 자료 구축이 요구되며, 해상도가 높은 DEM을 활용하여 침수가 가능한 지역을 분석할 필요가 있으며, 무엇보다도 신뢰할 수 있는 강수량 예보가 요구된다.

  • PDF

A Methodology for Driving Risk Evaluation Based on Driving Speed Choice (Focusing on Impacts of Providing In-vehicle Traffic Warning Information) (주행속도선택 기반 주행위험도 평가방법론 개발 (차내 교통안전정보 제공 효과 평가를 중심으로))

  • Kim, Won-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.95-102
    • /
    • 2011
  • This paper presents a Driving Risk Model (DRM) based on driving speed choices using an Ordered Response Probit (ORP) model. The DRM is conceptualized based on the relation between speed deviation and the occurrence of crashes found by Solomon. The impacts of various driving risk factors are revealed by applying the DRM to evaluate the effectiveness of In-Vehicle Traffic Warning Information (IVTWI) in expressway driving. Regarding driving risk, the results show that: (1) the risk is lower among male drivers, those with more driving experience and those with less accident history, (2) the risk is higher when driving takes place on wet road surface, in the afternoon, and under conditions of low traffic volume, and (3) the risk is also higher on both downgraded and long curve sections. Additionally, the results provide evidence that provision of IVTWI can decrease the driving risk. The proposed DRM provides a solution for assessing the traffic safety impacts of countermeasures on roadways when there is a shortage of traffic accidents data.

A Study on the Improvement of Domestic Rail Safety Management System through the Analysis of Safety Management Regulations and Results of the Universal Rail Safety Audit (안전관리규정과 철도종합안전심사결과 분석을 통한 국내 철도안전관리체계 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, In-Tack;Paeng, Jung-Goang;Jang, Seong-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
    • /
    • v.11 no.3
    • /
    • pp.342-348
    • /
    • 2008
  • This paper defines the Safety Management System (SMS) based on the rail safety act and surveys the status of the English rail SMS and International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) SMS and OHSAS18001 SMS. Through the analysis of the domestic rail operators' safety management regulations and the results of the universal rail safety audit, the status and problems of domestic rail operators' SMS are investigated and the improvement scheme are derived. First, to establish the continual improvement system for SMS, the instruction which describe the detailed continual improvement method for each steps of SMS including management review by CEO shall be established. Second, to settle the risk management based SMS, converting the rail operators mind and establishing the supply system of safety risk operating model and basic data for the risk analysis and safety evaluation and including the precise requirement for the risk management in the related instruction should be conducted.

Risk Prediction and Analysis of Building Fires -Based on Property Damage and Occurrence of Fires- (건물별 화재 위험도 예측 및 분석: 재산 피해액과 화재 발생 여부를 바탕으로)

  • Lee, Ina;Oh, Hyung-Rok;Lee, Zoonky
    • The Journal of Bigdata
    • /
    • v.6 no.1
    • /
    • pp.133-144
    • /
    • 2021
  • This paper derives the fire risk of buildings in Seoul through the prediction of property damage and the occurrence of fires. This study differs from prior research in that it utilizes variables that include not only a building's characteristics but also its affiliated administrative area as well as the accessibility of nearby fire-fighting facilities. We use Ensemble Voting techniques to merge different machine learning algorithms to predict property damage and fire occurrence, and to extract feature importance to produce fire risk. Fire risk prediction was made on 300 buildings in Seoul utilizing the established model, and it has been derived that with buildings at Level 1 for fire risks, there were a high number of households occupying the building, and the buildings had many factors that could contribute to increasing the size of the fire, including the lack of nearby fire-fighting facilities as well as the far location of the 119 Safety Center. On the other hand, in the case of Level 5 buildings, the number of buildings and businesses is large, but the 119 Safety Center in charge are located closest to the building, which can properly respond to fire.

울진 3,4호기 ESW 펌프 On-Line Maintenance분석

  • 김길유;한상훈;장승철;김태운
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
    • /
    • 1997.05a
    • /
    • pp.606-610
    • /
    • 1997
  • 울진 원전 3,4 호기 확률론적 안전성 평가 (PSA) 모델을 risk monitor 모델로 변환하여 한국원자력연구소에서 개발한 risk monitor인 Risk Monster[1]에 설치하였으며 이를 이용하여 필수냉각수 계통(ESW;Essential Service Water) 펌프의 가동중 정비(on-line maintenance)의 가능성 여부를 연구하였다. ESW 펌프를 가동중 정비하더라도 안전성 측면에서 별 문제가 없으며 경제성 여부는 보다 정확한 검토가 요구되나 상당히 있는 것으로 판단된다. 한편 ESW펌프 한대의 고장이 원전 가동중에 미치는 위험도를 분석하였으며 그 결과 ESW펌프 한대의 고장에도 불구하고 원전 계속 가동에는 큰 문제가 없었다.

  • PDF