• Title/Summary/Keyword: 운용 불확실성

Search Result 65, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

Prediction of Water Quality in Large Rivers with Tributary Input using Artificial Neural Network Model (인공신경망 모델을 이용한 지천유입이 있는 대하천의 수질예측)

  • Seo, Il Won;Yun, Se Hun;Jung, Sung Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2018.05a
    • /
    • pp.45-45
    • /
    • 2018
  • 오염물의 혼합거동을 해석하기 위해 물리기반 모델을 이용하는 경우 모델을 구축하고 운용하는데 많은 시간과 재정이 소요되며 현장검증을 통한 검증이 반드시 필요하다. 하지만 데이터 기반 모델의 경우 축적된 데이터만으로도 예측을 수행할 수 있으며 물리기반모델에 비해 결정해야할 입력인자가 적어 모델운용이 용이하다는 장점이 있다. 다양한 데이터 모델 중 인공신경망(ANN) 모델은 데이터가 가지는 불확실성 및 비정상성, 복잡한 상호관련성에 효과적으로 대응할 수 있는 모델로 수자원 및 환경 분야에서 자주 사용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 인공신경망 모델을 이용하여 지천유입이 있는 대하천의 수질인자 (pH, 전기전도도, DO, chl-a)를 예측하였다. 다른 데이터기반 모델과 같이 인공신경망 모델 또한 수집된 데이터 질에 크게 영향을 받으며, 내부 입력인자의 선택이 모델의 예측 결과에 큰 영향을 미친다. 이러한 인공신경망 모델의 특성을 바탕으로 예측모형의 정확도를 향상하기 위해서는 크게 데이터 처리부분과 모델구축 부분에서의 접근이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 데이터 처리 과정에서 연구대상지점의 각각의 수질인자가 가지는 분포 특성을 유지하기 위해 층화표츨추출법을 이용하여 데이터를 구성하였다. 모델의 구축 과정에서는 초기가중치 값의 영향을 줄이기 위해 앙상블기법을 사용하였으며, 좀 더 견고하고 정확한 결과를 예측하기 위해 탄력적 역전파알고리즘을 추가하였다. 추가적으로 합류 후 본류의 미 계측지역 수질 예측 정확도 향상을 위해 본류의 수질인자뿐만 아니라 지류의 수질인자를 입력자료로 사용하여 모의를 수행하였다. 또한 동일 구간에서 수행한 현장추적자실험 자료를 이용하여 수질인자의 분포특성을 비교, 검증하였다. 개발된 모델을 이용하여 낙동강과 금호강 합류부 하류의 수질인자를 예측한 결과 지류의 수질인자를 입력자료로 추가한 경우 예측의 정확도가 증가하였으며, 현장실험 자료를 통해 밝혀진 오염물의 거동현상을 인공신경망 모델로도 동일하게 재현하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 제안한 인공신경모델을 이용한다면 물리기반 수치모델을 대체하여 지천으로 유입된 오염물의 거동을 정확하고 효율적으로 파악할 수 있을 것이다.

  • PDF

Introduction to Construction of a Turbopump Real-Propellant Test Facility (터보펌프 실매질 시험설비 구축에 대한 소개)

  • Kim, Jin-Sun;Ko, Young-Sung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
    • /
    • 2011.11a
    • /
    • pp.835-840
    • /
    • 2011
  • The development of a turbopump is fundamental to have an independent LRE(liquid rocket engine) for KSLV-II. Recently, the detail design of a turbopump real-propellant test facility based on liquid oxygen and kerosene has been performed to structure the test facility for the experimental validation of the turbopump. In this paper, the design requirements of the turbopump and the specifications of the test facility was presented and the representative sub-facilities were explained on the basis of the design results. Also, the uncertainty of the sub-facilities which could be appeared during the operation was removed in advance through the simulation method and the experimental verification.

  • PDF

Precautionary Principle for the Protection of Space Environment against Solar Electromagnetic Storm (우주전파재난과 우주법상의 사전주의 원칙에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Hong-Kyun
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.241-269
    • /
    • 2011
  • Solar flare and storm may give an adverse effect upon electromagnetic environment around the Earth, so that various kinds of satellite cease to normally function. This kind of space storm disaster is characterized by the uncertainty about when and what size. Recently the UN has been paying attention to this plausible disaster. Particularly the COPUOS has taken the view that this disaster would threaten the sustainable space environment. The precautionary principle, rooted and excercised in the environment protection filed, has been adopted in the case of disaster with uncertainty. The reports and opinions given by the expert and representatives of the member States have stated that the precautionary principle should be adopted for the purpose of dealing with this disaster. On the other hand, it is advanced that the principle has been already included in the space law principle enshrined in the 1967 Space Treaty. The Treaty has adopted the freedom of navigation and use of the outer space for the interest of all States as the basic principles. Sustainable environment is necessary for implementing the principle. Therefore, the rules for the protection of sustainable space environment should be based upon the space law principle.

  • PDF

A Study on the Comparison Between China's Anti-Dumping System and WTO Agreement (중국 반덤핑 법규와 WTO 규범과의 적합성 비교 연구)

  • Shin, Sung-Shik;Choi, Hae-Bum
    • International Commerce and Information Review
    • /
    • v.13 no.4
    • /
    • pp.323-349
    • /
    • 2011
  • As China is one of WTO member nations, It has an obligation to have to certainly keep a standard regarding anti-dumping systems deciding in WTO agreements. Nonetheless the Chinese anti-dumping laws is causing legal uncertainty because of insufficient details regulations about the account of dumping margins, the termination of an investigation in case of negligible imports, and sunset review And a part of regulations are disagreed with WTO anti-dumping agreement about price undertakings. Therefore, South Korea should indicate them and urge the Chinese government to revise them so that its anti-dumping Law is agreed with WTO agreement. Aside from this, if the anti-dumping investigation is initiated, South Korea government must observe how the Chinese authorities operates its anti-dumping law that do not agree with WTO agreement, and should prepare the countermeasure accordingly. The analysis of this study is concentrated on the compatibility of the WTO anti-dumping agreement with China's interpretation of the antidumping policy and public law. Also, Including our export company, government agencies, academic circles being related, and international trade advisory agencies must expand opportunity of information sharing.

  • PDF

Analysis of water supply management plan and case for agricultural pipeline (농업용 관수로의 급수관리 계획 및 사례분석)

  • Kim, Sun Joo;Kang, Seung Mook;Kim, Phil Sik;Kim, Nam Do;Bark, Min Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2015.05a
    • /
    • pp.293-293
    • /
    • 2015
  • 농촌용수는 자연계의 물순환과 융합한 형태로 반복과 순환의 특징을 갖고 있으며, 지역의 건전한 물순환 형성에 중요한 역할을 담당하고 있다. 또한 식량생산 기반으로서의 역할뿐만 아니라 환경 보전, 전통문화 및 지역사회 등과 밀접한 관련이 있어 사회적 자본으로서의 큰 역할을 하고 있다. 그러나 최근 쌀 소비의 급격한 감소로 논 경작면적이 축소되면서 밭 경작면적이 증가하고 있어 우리나라 농업형태가 논 관개 시스템에서 밭 관개 시스템의 특용작물 재배와 같은 첨단시설의 하우스 농업 형태로 변화하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 농촌용수의 활용은 감소하고 있고 관개 형태의 변화로 용수관리 시스템에 대한 중요성이 대두되고 있고, 관개시스템에서 농촌용수의 효율적인 이용을 위한 수로형태의 변화는 개수로 중심에서 관수로 중심으로 진화하고 있는 상황이다. 농촌용수를 저장, 운용 실태를 보면 노후 된 농업기반시설들로 인하여 저수량 감소가 발생하며, 확보된 용수를 재래식으로 운용함으로 인한 관리 손실발생으로 농촌용수 부족사태를 발생시키고 있으며, 농촌용수 관개를 위한 개수로에서의 용수 손실률은 약 15%에 달하며 이는 약 20억$m^3$으로 추정되고 우리나라 총 수자원의 6%에 해당되는 양이다. 본 연구에서는 관개지구의 급수관리 계획 및 사례 분석을 통해 기존의 모의에 의한 농촌용수 추정 값의 불확실성을 확인하고 실측에 의한 정량화 분석을 통해 관수로 시스템 구축의 타당성 제시 및 효과 분석을 하고자 한다.

  • PDF

Simulation Study on Search Strategies for the Reconnaissance Drone (정찰 드론의 탐색 경로에 대한 시뮬레이션 연구)

  • Choi, Min Woo;Cho, Namsuk
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
    • /
    • v.28 no.1
    • /
    • pp.23-39
    • /
    • 2019
  • The use of drone-bots is demanded in times regarding the reduction of military force, the spread of the life-oriented thought, and the use of innovative technology in the defense through the fourth industrial revolution. Especially, the drone's surveillance and reconnaissance are expected to play a big role in the future battlefield. However, there are not many cases in which the concept of operation is studied scientifically. In this study, We propose search algorithms for reconnaissance drone through simulation analysis. In the simulation, the drone and target move linearly in continuous space, and the target is moving adopting the Random-walk concept to reflect the uncertainty of the battlefield. The research investigates the effectiveness of existing search methods such as Parallel and Spiral Search. We analyze the probabilistic analysis for detector radius and the speed on the detection probability. In particular, the new detection algorithms those can be used when an enemy moves toward a specific goal, PS (Probability Search) and HS (Hamiltonian Search), are introduced. The results of this study will have applicability on planning the path for the reconnaissance operations using drone-bots.

An Integrated Fault Diagnosis System for Power System Devices using Meta-inference and Fuzzy Reasoning (메타-인퍼런스와 퍼지추론을 이용한 송변전 설비의 통합 고장진단 전문가 시스템)

  • 이흥재;임찬호;김광원
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.38-44
    • /
    • 1998
  • This paper presents an integrated fault diagnosis expert system to assist SCADA operators in local control centers which controls unmanned distribution substations in a power system. The proposed system diagnoses various faults occurred in both substation devices and transmission devices. The system can be easily installed without disturbing main SCADA system. The system simply shares the dynamic information including alarms with main SCADA using dual data link interface. And the proposed expert system utilizes the fuzzy reasoning process in order to consider the uncertainty factor. The system is developed using a low cost personal computer owing to the special modular programming and the meta-inf!'lrence structure. Case studies showed a promising possibility.bility.

  • PDF

A Prediction Method of the Gas Pipeline Failure Using In-line Inspection and Corrosion Defect Clustering (In-line Inspection과 부식결함 클러스터링을 이용한 가스배관의 고장예측)

  • Kim, Seong-Jun;Choe, Byung Hak;Kim, Woosik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.6
    • /
    • pp.651-656
    • /
    • 2014
  • Corrosion has a significant influence upon the reliability assessment and the maintenance planning of gas pipeline. Corrosion defects occurred on the underground pipeline can be obtained by conducting periodic in-line inspection (ILI). However, little study has been done for practical use of ILI data. This paper deals with remaining lifetime prediction of the gas pipeline in the presence of corrosion defects. Because a pipeline parameter includes uncertainty in its operation, a probabilistic approach is adopted in this paper. A pipeline fails when its operating pressure is larger than the pipe failure pressure. In order to estimate the failure probability, this paper uses First Order Reliability Method (FORM) which is popular in the field of structural engineering. A well-known Battelle code is chosen as the computational model for the pipe failure pressure. This paper develops a Matlab GUI for illustrating failure probability predictions Our result indicates that clustering of corrosion defects is helpful for improving a prediction accuracy and preventing an unnecessary maintenance.

Study on Improving Reliability of Biomonitor by Using CCD Camera (CCD카메라를 이용한 생물감시장치의 독성자료 신뢰성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyun-Chang;Kim, Young-Suk
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.34 no.10
    • /
    • pp.1351-1357
    • /
    • 2010
  • Water monitoring equipments using daphnia can be used to monitor the pollution levels of a country's main rivers. Such equipments should be capable of providing a prompt warning about increase in the contamination levels, which is evaluated on the basis of impulse number or toxicity index. As unmanned remote control equipments, they must provide reliable pollution monitoring results for each season and for the annual physical changes in each river. Two different equipments based on the impulse number and toxicity index showed different results for the operating rates and for the number of emergency checks required even though both were operated at the same conditions. The results are affected by many parameters such as the presence of any air bubbles and the microscopic pressure. The purpose of this study is to develop a method that can reduce the effect of bubbles or microscopic pressure on the monitoring data. We expect to achieve reliable monitoring data for water pollutants irrespective of the location of the equipment setup.

Shape Optimization and Reliability Analysis of the Dovetail of the Disk of a Gas Turbine Engine (가스터빈엔진 디스크의 도브테일 형상 최적화와 신뢰도 해석)

  • Huh, Jae-Sung
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.38 no.4
    • /
    • pp.379-384
    • /
    • 2014
  • The most critical rotating parts of a gas turbine engine are turbine blades and disc, given that they must operate under severe conditions such as high turbine inlet temperature, high speeds, and high compression ratios. Owing to theses operating conditions and high rotational speed energy, some failures caused by turbine disks and blades are categorized into catastrophic and critical, respectively. To maximize the margin of structural integrity, we aim to optimize the vulnerable area of disc-blade interface region. Then, to check the robustness of the obtained optimized solution, we evaluated structural reliability under uncertainties such as dimensional tolerance and fatigue life variant. The results highlighted the necessity for and limitations of optimization which is one of deterministic methods, and pointed out the requirement for introducing reliability-based design optimization which is one of stochastic methods. Thermal-structural coupled-filed analysis and contact analysis are performed for them.