• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.663-676
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• 2016

In Korean professional baseball the championship team of the year is determined by the four series of games: semi-semi-playoff, semi-playoff, playoff and korean series. To the top 5 teams in a regular season privileges are given to play the games at post season. At semi-semi playoff the winner of two teams which are ranked at 4th and 5th place in the regular season can advance to the game of semi playoff. The winner at semi playoff advances to the playoff to play with the second place team in the regular season. Finally, the championship team is to be determined in the Korean series between the winner of the playoff and the first ranked team in the regular season. We propose methods of how to calculate the winning probabilities of each of high ranked 5 teams advancing to Korean series. From our proposed methods we can estimate the championship probabilities of each of high ranked 5 teams advancing to the Korean series only if we know the winning probabilities between two teams in the regular season or the post season.

• Review of Culture and Economy
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.149-171
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• 2017

This paper presents empirical findings about the market inefficiency field in the korean horse track. We first use the place betting data instead of the win betting data inevitably depended on by past studies, and discuss the degree of the long shot anomaly and the bettor's risk attitude sequentially in the place betting market. The empirical result of betting simulations using the place winning function in this study reveals persistently higher returns than the expected payoff in korean racetrack betting market. The clear departures from perfect efficiency in horse-racing betting imply that much of the market information is insufficient and less accurate. This market asymmetry aggravates popular speculations exquisitely since people are attracted by the higher odds figures in the racetrack display although those are much uncertain in future. The findings suggest the more objective and credible information of winning possibilities such as the place winning function including the smart information of marginal odds needs to be available to the betting decision of the public, which contributes to reducing the speculative spirit in korean racetrack.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.783-796
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• 2017

In the theory of probability, a Bernoulli trial is a random experiment with exactly two possible outcomes, "success" and "failure", in which the probability of success is the same every time the experiment is conducted. In the successive games of scissors paper stone there exists the case of draw in each game. In this paper we are interested in the ultimate success probability of each participant and the expected number of the game till any one of the two has the ultimate victory. Using our results, we can calculate the ultimate winning probability of each player of the two players and the expected number of the game till any one of the two has the ultimate victory in any case whether there is draw or not in each game.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.923-930
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• 2015

There exist many competition systems to determine a winner. Many sports games use the 1-in-2 tournament or its modified version to determine a winner. In this paper, we propose a competition system that can be used when there are many candidates and many random referees to evaluate the candidates. These competitions can be found in the cyber space where many users score many competing apps. We study fairness of our proposed competing system called a multi-stage random tournament in terms of equal probabilities. We also formulate the influence factor of a specific referee under some specific conditions.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.1201-1208
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• 2010

In teaching probability and statistics classes, we should increase efforts to develop examples that enhance teaching methodology in delivering more meaningful knowledge to students. Sports is one field that provides a variety of examples and World Cup Soccer events are a treasure house of many interesting problems. Teaching, using examples from this field, is an effective way to enhance the interest of students in probability and statistics because World Cup Soccer is a matter of national interest. In this paper, we have suggested several examples pertaining to counting the number of cases and computing probabilities. These examples are related to many issues such as possible scenarios in the preliminary round, victory points necessary for each participant to advance to the second round, and the issue of grouping teams. Based on a simulation using a statistical model, we have proposed a logical method for computing the probabilities of proceeding to the second round and winning the championship for each participant in the 2010 South Africa World Cup.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2021.05a
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• pp.607-610
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• 2021

When learning a model in supervised learning, input data and the label of the data are required. However, labeling is high cost task and if automated, there is no guarantee that the label will always be correct. In the case of supervised learning in such a noisy labels environment, the accuracy of the model increases at the initial stage of learning, but decrease significantly after a certain period of time. There are various methods to solve the noisy label problem. But in most cases, the probability predicted by the model is used as the pseudo label. So, we proposed a method to predict the true label more quickly by refining the probabilities predicted by the model. Result of experiments on the same environment and dataset, it was confirmed that the performance improved and converged faster. Through this, it can be applied to methods that use the probability distribution predicted by the model among existing studies. And it is possible to reduce the time required for learning because it can converge faster in the same environment.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.531-536
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• 2022

This paper compared the performance of the parametric method and the nonparametric method when estimating the distribution for the tail of the distribution with heavy tails. For the parametric method, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution were used, and for the nonparametric method, the kernel density estimation method was applied. For comparison of the two approaches, the results of function estimation by applying the block maximum value model and the threshold excess model using daily fine dust public data for each observatory in Seoul from 2014 to 2018 are shown together. In addition, the area where high concentrations of fine dust will occur was predicted through the return level.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.915-930
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• 2011

There are a variety of methods to model game results and many methods exist for the case of paired comparison data. Among them, the Bradley-Terry model is the most widely used to derive a latent preference scale from paired comparison data. It has been applied in a variety of fields in psychology and related disciplines. We applied this model to the data of Korean Baseball League. It shows that the loglinear Bradley-Terry model of defensive rate and save is optimal in terms of AIC. Also some categorical characteristics, such as east team and west team, existence of golden glove winning players, team(s) with seasonal pitching leader, and team(s) with home advantage, influenced the game result significantly. As a result, the suggested models can be further utilized to predict future game results.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.1137-1146
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• 2010

There are a lot of methods to predict the result of a game and many forecasting researches have been studied. Among many methods, if a statistical model including some realistic random variables is used to forecast, more accurate prediction could be expected than any others. In this work, Bradley-Terry model is considered to predict results of 2010 South Africa World Cup games via paired comparison method. This prediction model includes some random variables which affect the results of games. The worth parameters for each country in this model are convergence values obtained by using Newton-Raphson algorithm. With this model, we can forecast top 16 among 32 countries and up to who will win the victory. Final results of 2010 South Africa World Cup games are compared with this prediction and discuss further works.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.285-288
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• 2008

This study aims to rout optimized design flood discharge through prediction of the frequency-based precipitation from the frequency analysis with density of rainfall gage networks in urban watershed. Frequency analysis was examined for the measured rainfall depth with low density of a point and high density of the sub-basin divided into 13 points in watershed. The used rainfall data in order to analyze consists of two groups based on measured rainfall depth for a day duration with 39years of a point and 6years of 13 points by an extending as annual exceedance series, respectively. Selected rainfall data in this analysis show that low-network has maximum rainfall depth with duration 1hr-79.1mm and 24hrs-329.1mm, and high-networks have ones with duration of 1hr-93.0 mm and 24 hrs-245.0 mm, respectively. As the result, probability of the best in this study determined the Gumbel method from the goodness of fit test and the method of prime 6 probability distributions.