• 제목/요약/키워드: 왜곡예측

Search Result 338, Processing Time 0.034 seconds

The Concept of "Accident" under the Warsaw System (국제항공운송협약상(國際船空運送協約上) 사고(事故)의 개념(槪念))

  • Choi, Jun-Sun
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.45-85
    • /
    • 2005
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine the concept of "accident" under the Warsaw system including the Warsaw Convention for the Unification of certain Rules for International Carriage by Air of 1929 and the Montreal Convention of 1999. Most leading case on this subject is Air France v. Saks(470 U.S. 392 (1985)). In the Saks case, it was held that the definition of an accident must be applied flexibly, and most courts have adhered to the definition of accident in Saks case, the application of accident has been less than consistent. However, most cases have held that if the event is usual and expected operation of the aircraft, then no accident has occurred. Courts have also held that where the injury results from passenger's own internal reaction to the usual, normal, and expected operations of the aircraft, it is not caused by an accident. As the Warsaw drafters intended to create a system of liability rules that would cover all hazards of air travel, the carrier should liable for the inherent risks of air travel. It is right in that the carrier is in a better position than the passenger to control the risks during air travel. Most US courts have held that carriers are not liable for one passenger's assault on the other passenger. The interactions between passengers are not part of the normal operations of the aircraft and are therefore not covered by the word "accident" under Art 17 of the Warsaw Convention. It is regretful that the Montreal Convention did not attempt to clarify the concepts of accident in itself. In the light of an emerging tendency to hold the air carrier liable for occurrences that do not exactly go to the operation of the aircraft, it is desirable to regulate that the carrier is liable for an "event" instead of an "accident" in accordance with the Guatemala City protocol.

  • PDF

Differences of Illness Behavior in Depressive Patients According to the Presence of Somatization (우울증 환자에서 신체화 증상에 따른 질병행동의 차이)

  • Yoon, Chang-Young;Jang, Se-Heon;Jae, Young-Myo;Lee, Dae-Su;Choi, Jin-Hyuk
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.68-74
    • /
    • 2009
  • Objectives : Illness behavior is defined as the persistence of an adaptive/maladaptive mode of perceiving, evaluating and responding to health status and symptoms according to the status. In a cognitive aspect, somatizing symptoms are regarded as being originated from distortions, including magnification and/or amplification, of perceiving, evaluating and responding to symptoms such as bodily sensations. That is somatization may be explained by maladaptive illness behavior. In this study, we tried to investigate differences of illness behavior in depressive patient according to the presence of somatization. Methods : We divided 45 patients who were diagnosed as depression with ICD-10 diagnostic criteria into two groups(somatizing and non-somatizing group) according to the somatization subscale of Korean Depression Scale and compared two groups in the differences of illness behavior using the Illness Behavior Questionnaire. Results : Somatizing group showed significantly higher scores than non-somatizing group on the disease affirmation subscale($6.79{\pm}2.08$ vs. 4.76, p=0.003) and the denial subscale($3.25{\pm}1.22$ vs. $2.10{\pm}1.41$, p=0.006). There were no significant differences between two groups on the general hypochondriasis subscale and the affective unstability subscale. In a logistic regression analysis, somatizing group also showed higher odds ratio (OR) scores on the disease affirmation subscale(OR=1.418, p=0.089) and the denial subscale(OR=1.880, p=0.083). Conclusion : The disease affirmation and denial may be a discriminative mechanism of somatization in depressive patients. These subscales of Illness Behavior Questionnare could be useful markers, and psychiatric illnesses with somatizing and depressive symptoms may be differentially diagnosed and be predicted through these subscales.

  • PDF

Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
    • /
    • v.23 no.2
    • /
    • pp.53-69
    • /
    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.

Development of a Small Animal Positron Emission Tomography Using Dual-layer Phoswich Detector and Position Sensitive Photomultiplier Tube: Preliminary Results (두층 섬광결정과 위치민감형광전자증배관을 이용한 소동물 양전자방출단층촬영기 개발: 기초실험 결과)

  • Jeong, Myung-Hwan;Choi, Yong;Chung, Yong-Hyun;Song, Tae-Yong;Jung, Jin-Ho;Hong, Key-Jo;Min, Byung-Jun;Choe, Yearn-Seong;Lee, Kyung-Han;Kim, Byung-Tae
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
    • /
    • v.38 no.5
    • /
    • pp.338-343
    • /
    • 2004
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a small animal PET using dual layer phoswich detector to minimize parallax error that degrades spatial resolution at the outer part of field-of-view (FOV). Materials and Methods: A simulation tool GATE (Geant4 Application for Tomographic Emission) was used to derive optimal parameters of small PET, and PET was developed employing the parameters. Lutetium Oxyorthosilicate (LSO) and Lutetium-Yttrium Aluminate-Perovskite(LuYAP) was used to construct dual layer phoswitch crystal. $8{\times}8$ arrays of LSO and LuYAP pixels, $2mm{\times}2mm{\times}8mm$ in size, were coupled to a 64-channel position sensitive photomultiplier tube. The system consisted of 16 detector modules arranged to one ring configuration (ring inner diameter 10 cm, FOV of 8 cm). The data from phoswich detector modules were fed into an ADC board in the data acquisition and preprocessing PC via sockets, decoder block, FPGA board, and bus board. These were linked to the master PC that stored the events data on hard disk. Results: In a preliminary test of the system, reconstructed images were obtained by using a pair of detectors and sensitivity and spatial resolution were measured. Spatial resolution was 2.3 mm FWHM and sensitivity was 10.9 $cps/{\mu}Ci$ at the center of FOV. Conclusion: The radioactivity distribution patterns were accurately represented in sinograms and images obtained by PET with a pair of detectors. These preliminary results indicate that it is promising to develop a high performance small animal PET.

A proposal of landmarks for craniofacial analysis using three-dimensional CT imaging (3차원 CT 영상을 이용한 두개악안면 분석을 위한 계측점의 제안)

  • Chang, Hye-Sook;Baik, Hyoung-Seon
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
    • /
    • v.32 no.5 s.94
    • /
    • pp.313-325
    • /
    • 2002
  • Three-dimensional CT imaging is efficient in examining specific structures in the craniofacial area by reproducing actual measurements through minimization of errors from patient movement and image magnification. Due to the rapid development of digital image technology and the expansion of treatment range a need for developing three -dimensional analysis has become urgent. Therefore the purpose of this study was to evaluate the percentage of error and magnification of three-dimensional CT using a dried skull and Vworks $program^{TM}$ (Cybermed Inc., Seoul, Korea) and also to obtain landmarks that are easy to designate and reproduce in three-dimensional images using the Vmorph-proto $program^{TM}$ (Cybermed Inc., Seoul, Korea). The following conclusions were obtained, 1. In the comparison of actual measurements from the dried skull and the three-dimensional image obtained from the Vworks program, the mean error was 0.99mm and the magnification was 1.04%. 2. Clinically useful hard tissue landmarks from three-dimensional images were Supraorbitale, Lateral orbital margin, Infraorbitale, Nasion, ANS, A point, Zygomaticomaxilla, Upper incisor, Lower incisor, B point, pogonion, Menton, PNS, Condylar inner margin, Condylar outer margin, Porion, Condylion, Gonionl, Gonion2, Gonion3, Sigmoid notch and Basion. 3. Clinically useful soft tissue landmarks from three-dimensional images were Endocanthion, Exocanthion, Soft tissue Nasion, Pronasale, Alare lateralis, Upper nostril point, Lower nostril point, Subnasale, Upper lip point, Cheilion, Stomion, Lower lip center, Soft tissue B, Pogonion, Menton and Preaurale. The Vworks program can be considered a clinically efficient tool to produce and measure three-dimensional images. Most of the hard and soft tissue landmarks proposed above are anatomically important points which are also easily reproducible and designated. These landmarks can be beneficial in three-dimensional diagnosis and the prediction of changes before and after surgery.

The Characteristics of Rural Population, Korea, 1960~1995: Population Composition and Internal Migration (농촌인구의 특성과 그 변화, 1960~1995: 인구구성 및 인구이동)

  • 김태헌
    • Korea journal of population studies
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.77-105
    • /
    • 1996
  • The rural problems which we are facing start from the extremely small sized population and the skewed population structure by age and sex. Thus we analyzed the change of the rural population. And we analyzed the recent return migration to the rural areas by comparing the recent in-migrants with out-migrants to rural areas. And by analyzing the rural village survey data which was to show the current characteristics of rural population, we found out the effects of the in-migrants to the rural areas and predicted the futures of rural villages by characteristics. The changes of rural population composition by age was very clear. As the out-migrants towards cities carried on, the population composition of young children aged 0~4 years was low and the aged became thick. The proportion of the population aged 0~4 years was 45.1% of the total population in 1970 and dropped down to 20.4% in 1995, which is predicted to become under 20% from now on. In the same period(1970~1995), the population aged 65 years and over rose from 4.2% to 11.9%. In 1960, before industrialization, the proportion of the population aged 0~4 years in rural areas was higher than that of cities. As the rural young population continuously moves to cities it became lower than that in urban areas from 1975 and the gap grew till 1990. But the proportion of rural population aged 0~4 years in 1995 became 6.2% and the gap reduced. We can say this is the change of the characteristics of in-migrants and out-migrants in the rural areas. Also considering the composition of the population by age group moving from urban to rural area in the late 1980s, 51.8% of the total migrants concentrates upon age group of 20~34 years and these people's educational level was higher than that of out-migrants to urban areas. This fact predicted the changes of the rural population, and the results will turn out as a change in the rural society. However, after comparing the population structure between the pure rural village of Boeun-gun and suburban village of Paju-gun which was agriculture centered village but recently changed rapidly, the recent change of the rural population structure which the in-migrants to rural areas becomes younger is just a phenomenon in the suburban rural areas, not the change of the total rural areas in general. From the characteristics of the population structure of rural village from the field survey on these villages, we can see that in the pure rural villages without any effects from cities the regidents are highly aged, while industrialization and urbanization are making a progress in suburban villages. Therefore, the recent partial change of the rural population structure and the change of characteristics of the in-migrants toward rural areas is effecting and being effected by the population change of areas like suburban rural villages. Although there are return migrants to rural areas to change their jobs into agriculture, this is too minor to appear as a statistic effect.

  • PDF

A Study on the Use of GIS-based Time Series Spatial Data for Streamflow Depletion Assessment (하천 건천화 평가를 위한 GIS 기반의 시계열 공간자료 활용에 관한 연구)

  • YOO, Jae-Hyun;KIM, Kye-Hyun;PARK, Yong-Gil;LEE, Gi-Hun;KIM, Seong-Joon;JUNG, Chung-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.50-63
    • /
    • 2018
  • The rapid urbanization had led to a distortion of natural hydrological cycle system. The change in hydrological cycle structure is causing streamflow depletion, changing the existing use tendency of water resources. To manage such phenomena, a streamflow depletion impact assessment technology to forecast depletion is required. For performing such technology, it is indispensable to build GIS-based spatial data as fundamental data, but there is a shortage of related research. Therefore, this study was conducted to use the use of GIS-based time series spatial data for streamflow depletion assessment. For this study, GIS data over decades of changes on a national scale were constructed, targeting 6 streamflow depletion impact factors (weather, soil depth, forest density, road network, groundwater usage and landuse) and the data were used as the basic data for the operation of continuous hydrologic model. Focusing on these impact factors, the causes for streamflow depletion were analyzed depending on time series. Then, using distributed continuous hydrologic model based DrySAT, annual runoff of each streamflow depletion impact factor was measured and depletion assessment was conducted. As a result, the default value of annual runoff was measured at 977.9mm under the given weather condition without considering other factors. When considering the decrease in soil depth, the increase in forest density, road development, and groundwater usage, along with the change in land use and development, and annual runoff were measured at 1,003.5mm, 942.1mm, 961.9mm, 915.5mm, and 1003.7mm, respectively. The results showed that the major causes of the streaflow depletion were lowered soil depth to decrease the infiltration volume and surface runoff thereby decreasing streamflow; the increased forest density to decrease surface runoff; the increased road network to decrease the sub-surface flow; the increased groundwater use from undiscriminated development to decrease the baseflow; increased impervious areas to increase surface runoff. Also, each standard watershed depending on the grade of depletion was indicated, based on the definition of streamflow depletion and the range of grade. Considering the weather, the decrease in soil depth, the increase in forest density, road development, and groundwater usage, and the change in land use and development, the grade of depletion were 2.1, 2.2, 2.5, 2.3, 2.8, 2.2, respectively. Among the five streamflow depletion impact factors except rainfall condition, the change in groundwater usage showed the biggest influence on depletion, followed by the change in forest density, road construction, land use, and soil depth. In conclusion, it is anticipated that a national streamflow depletion assessment system to be develop in the future would provide customized depletion management and prevention plans based on the system assessment results regarding future data changes of the six streamflow depletion impact factors and the prospect of depletion progress.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.83-98
    • /
    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

  • PDF