• Title/Summary/Keyword: 오차평가기법

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Trend Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Using Quantile Regression (Quantile 회귀분석을 이용한 극대강수량 자료의 경향성 분석)

  • So, Byung-Jin;Kwon, Hyun-Han;An, Jung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.8
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    • pp.815-826
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    • 2012
  • The underestimating trend using existing ordinary regression (OR) based trend analysis has been a well-known problem. The existing OR method based on least squares approximate the conditional mean of the response variable given certain values of the time t, and the usual assumption of the OR method is normality, that is the distribution of data are not dissimilar form a normal distribution. In this regard, this study proposed a quantile regression that aims at estimating either the conditional median or other quantiles of the response variable. This study assess trend in annual daily maximum rainfall series over 64 weather stations through both in OR and QR approach. The QR method indicates that 47 stations out of 67 weather stations are a strong upward trend at 5% significance level while OR method identifies a significant trend only at 13 stations. This is mainly because the OR method is estimating the condition mean of the response variable. Unlike the OR method, the QR method allows us flexibly to detect the trends since the OR is designed to estimate conditional quantiles of the response variable. The proposed QR method can be effectively applied to estimate hydrologic trend for either non-normal data or skewed data.

기업연구개발활동통계 개선방안에 관한 연구

  • Jo, Seong-Pyo;Park, Seon-Yeong;Han, Gi-In;No, Min-Seon;Bae, Han-Su;Kim, Hyeon-A
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 2009.02a
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    • pp.313-332
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구에서는 국가의 연구개발활동조사에서 기업연구개발활동 통계에 대한 효과적인 산출방법을 제시하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 국내 외 연구개발 통계방법을 조사한 후 이를 토대로 우리나라에서 기업연구개발활동에 대한 자료의 수집 및 분석에 대한 개선방안을 제시하였다. 대부분의 국가에서는 대기업은 전수조사, 소규모 기업은 표본조사를 수행하고 있으나, 우리나라에서는 연구소 등록법인에 대하여 전수조사를 행하고 있다. 전수조사는 비용이 많이 들고 비 표본오차로 인하여 모집단에 대한 체계적인 추정이 불가능하다는 문제점이 있다. 현재 산업기술진흥협회에 등록된 연구기관의 수가 20,000개를 넘어서고 있어 전수조사는 한계에 다다른 것으로 생각되어 표본조사 도입에 대한 타당성과 방법론을 중점적으로 검토하였다. 먼저, 표본조사의 타당성을 평가하기 위하여 현재 전수조사를 통해 수집된 자료를 이용하여 표본조사를 수행한 결과를 비교 분석하였다. 산업별(24개), 그룹별(8개)로 구분하여 216개 셀별로 모집단수/표본수를 곱하여 산정 (셀별추정법)한 결과, 전수 통계치와 거의 동일하게 나타났다. 따라서, 산업별, 그룹별로 세분하여 모집단수/표본수를 곱하여 추정하는 셀별추정법이 타당한 것으로 평가할 수 있다. 이상의 분석결과를 토대로 새로운 조사설계방안을 제시하면 다음과 같다. 직전연도 조사기업은 직전연도 연구개발비 수준과 기업종류(대기업, 벤처기업, 중소기업), 그리고 산업에 따라 셀을 분할한다. 대기업, 연구개발비 수준이 높은 기업 등 주요한 셀에 대하여는 전수조사를 실시한다. 나머지 셀에 대하여는 각 셀별 연구개발지출의 분포가 동질적이기 때문에 표본 추출방법은 단순임의추출법(SRS)을 사용한다. 다만 전년도 미계상된(또는 미포함된) 기업에 대하여는 신규 대형 연구소 진입 등을 고려하여 규모비례확률추출법(PPS)을 고려하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 판단된다. 일부 기업들이 특정 항목에 대한 자료를 제공하지 않는 항목무응답의 경우, 누락된 자료에 대하여는 대체기법(Imputation Algorithm)에 따라 이를 추정한다. 이러한 표본조사방법은 전수조사에서 발생하는 비 표본오차를 해소하고, 자료수집비용 및 소규모기업의 행정적 부담을 경감할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. 향후 연구에서는 좀 더 구체적인 조사방법론을 강구할 필요가 있으며, 이와 함께, 연구개발에 대한 다양한 측면의 정보를 수집하기 위해 새로운 설문지를 개발할 필요성이 있다.

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Evaluation of Automatic Image Segmentation for 3D Volume Measurement of Liver and Spleen Based on 3D Region-growing Algorithm using Animal Phantom (간과 비장의 체적을 구하기 위한 3차원 영역 확장 기반 자동 영상 분할 알고리즘의 동물팬텀을 이용한 성능검증)

  • Kim, Jin-Sung;Cho, June-Sik;Shin, Kyung-Sook;Kim, Jin-Hwan;Jeon, Ho-Sang;Cho, Gyu-Seong
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.178-185
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    • 2008
  • Living donor liver transplantation is increasingly performed as an alternative to cadaveric transplantation. Preoperative screening of the donor candidates is very important. The quality, size, and vascular and biliary anatomy of the liver are best assessed with magnetic resonance (MR) imaging or computed tomography (CT). In particular, the volume of the potential graft must be measured to ensure sufficient liver function after surgery. Preoperative liver segmentation has proved useful for measuring the graft volume before living donor liver transplantations in previous studies. In these studies, the liver segments were manually delineated on each image section. The delineated areas were multiplied by the section thickness to obtain volumes and summed to obtain the total volume of the liver segments. This process is tedious and time consuming. To compensate for this problem, automatic segmentation techniques have been proposed with multiplanar CT images. These methods involve the use of sequences of thresholding, morphologic operations (ie, mathematic operations, such as image dilation, erosion, opening, and closing, that are based on shape), and 3D region growing methods. These techniques are complex but require a few computation times. We made a phantom for volume measurement with pig and evaluated actual volume of spleen and liver of phantom. The results represent that our semiautomatic volume measurement algorithm shows a good accuracy and repeatability with actual volume of phantom and possibility for clinical use to assist physician as a measuring tool.

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The Evaluation of Architectural Density on Urban District using Airborne Laser Scanning Data (항공레이저측량 자료를 이용한 시가지 건축밀도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Geun-Sang;Koh, Deuk-Koo;Cho, Gi-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2003
  • This study evaluated the architectural density of urban district using airborne laser scanning(ALS) that is a method used in urban planning, water resources and disaster prevention with high interest recently. First, digital elevation model(DEM) and digital surface model(DSM) was constructed from Light detection and ranging(LiDAR). For getting the height of building, ZONALMEAN filter was used in DEM and ZONALMAJORITY filter was used in DSM. This study compared the floor from filtering with the floor from survey and got standard error, which is ${\pm}0.199$ floor. Also, through the overlay and statistical analysis of total-area layer and zone layer, we could present floor area ratio by zone. As a result of comparison with floor area ratio between airborne laser scanning data and survey data, the standard error of floor area ratio shows ${\pm}2.68%$. Therefore, we expect that airborne laser scanning data can be a very efficient source to decision makers who set up landuse plan in near future.

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A Modified grid-based KIneMatic wave STOrm Runoff Model (ModKIMSTORM) (I) - Theory and Model - (격자기반 운동파 강우유출모형 KIMSTORM의 개선(I) - 이론 및 모형 -)

  • Jung, In Kyun;Lee, Mi Seon;Park, Jong Yoon;Kim, Seong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6B
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    • pp.697-707
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    • 2008
  • The grid-based KIneMatic wave STOrm Runoff Model (KIMSTORM) by Kim (1998) predicts the temporal variation and spatial distribution of overland flow, subsurface flow and stream flow in a watershed. The model programmed with C++ language on Unix operating system adopts single flowpath algorithm for water balance simulation of flow at each grid element. In this study, we attempted to improve the model by converting the code into FORTRAN 90 on MS Windows operating system and named as ModKIMSTORM. The improved functions are the addition of GAML (Green-Ampt & Mein-Larson) infiltration model, control of paddy runoff rate by flow depth and Manning's roughness coefficient, addition of baseflow layer, treatment of both spatial and point rainfall data, development of the pre- and post-processor, and development of automatic model evaluation function using five evaluation criteria (Pearson's coefficient of determination, Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency, the deviation of runoff volume, relative error of the peak runoff rate, and absolute error of the time to peak runoff). The modified model adopts Shell Sort algorithm to enhance the computational performance. Input data formats are accepted as raster and MS Excel, and model outputs viz. soil moisture, discharge, flow depth and velocity are generated as BSQ, ASCII grid, binary grid and raster formats.

Implementation for Automatic Inspection System on Ventilating Electronic Device Based on Reliability Improvement (신뢰성 향상 기반의 송풍전자장치 자동검사 시스템 구현)

  • Do, Nam Soo;Ryu, Kwang Ryol
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.1155-1160
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    • 2017
  • This paper describes a system implementation for the automatic inspection on the ventilating electronic device based on the reliability improvement. To be enhancement, the inspection error is minimized by the automatic inspection system on the ventilating apparatuses against the manual inspecting system. The system consists of the control system, software structure and monitoring system to be scanning the inspection processing. The inspection system for reliability improvement is evaluated in Gage Repeatability and Reproducibility. The experimental results are improved about 2 times inspecting speed, measured error ${\pm}0.02V$, effectiveness of discriminating performance 15%, missing probability 17% and false alarm probability 12% respectively in comparing with the manual inspection based on the wind pressure sensor. The system will be also improved more by making database and product bar codes for the total quality control system to the effective reliability enhancement in the future.

A Bone Age Assessment Method Based on Normalized Shape Model (정규화된 형상 모델을 이용한 뼈 나이 측정 방법)

  • Yoo, Ju-Woan;Lee, Jong-Min;Kim, Whoi-Yul
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.383-396
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    • 2009
  • Bone age assessment has been widely used in pediatrics to identify endocrine problems of children. Since the number of trained doctors is far less than the demands, there has been numerous requests for automatic estimation of bone age. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an automatic bone age assessment method that utilizes pattern classification techniques. The proposed method consists of three modules; a finger segmentation module, a normalized shape model generation module and a bone age estimation module. The finger segmentation module segments fingers and epiphyseal regions by means of various image processing algorithms. The shape model abstraction module employ ASM to improves the accuracy of feature extraction for bone age estimation. In addition, SVM is used for estimation of bone age. Features for the estimation include the length of bone and the ratios of bone length. We evaluated the performance of the proposed method through statistical analysis by comparing the bone age assessment results by clinical experts and the proposed automatic method. Through the experimental results, the mean error of the assessment was 0.679 year, which was better than the average error acceptable in clinical practice.

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Construction of VGIS Using Digital Map and GIS (수치지도와 지형정보를 이용한 VGIS구축에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, In-Joon;Choi, Hyun;Park, Chang-Ha
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.327-335
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    • 2001
  • This paper present to how to make VGIS(Virtual Geographic Information System) using GIS and digital map. Because the development of the GIS has been 2-dimension in the last few years, viewpoint of the high-resolution image estimate was difficult. The geo-spatial information system has lots of errors in the policy decision and the principal decision making because it was displayed as 2 dimension map that the digital map and topographical map, geological map. agronomical map, cadastral map and underground facility map are expressed as a symbol practically in spite that it is spatial topography data. It is utilized as effective administration analyzing, all kinds of discussion, transportation and environmental effect evaluation, various kinds of building discussion and policy decision thorough researching the present condition of region as 3 dimension map using digital map and GIS when drafting and deciding all kinds of urban plaining so it is considered that errors of policy decision will be minimized.

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Evaluation of Ground-Water Sampling Techniques for Analysis of Chlorofluorocarbons (지하수의 CFCs(Chlorofluorocarbons) 조사를 위한 시료 채취 방법의 평가)

  • 고동찬;이대하
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2003
  • Two types of ground-water sampling techniques for CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) analysis, the cold-welded copper tube method and flame-sealed borosilicate glass ampule method, were compared and evaluated. CFCs concentrations by the copper tube method showed a poor reproducibility among triplicates whereas those by the glass ampule method showed a good agreement and relative standard deviations of triplicates were less than 5%. The poor reproducibility of the copper tube method appears to be attributed to the incomplete sealing in connection between faucets of wellhead and the sampling apparatus. The copper tube method also showed higher CFCs concentrations than the glass ampule method, which is more pronounced for CFC-11 than for CFC-12. The plastic tubings and rubber gasket of faucets in case of the copper tube method possibly contaminated the samples with CFC-11 and CFC-12. The potential of CFCs contamination for the glass ampule method was eliminated by using stainless steel and Nylon only and by connecting the sampling equipment directly to the main discharge pipe of wellhead. The validity of the glass ampule method were also verified by detecting very low level of CFCs for the ground-water sample which is old enough to have negligible CFCs.

A Study on the Development of Prediction Method of Ozone Formation for Ozone Forecast System (오존예보시스템을 위한 오존 발생량의 예측기법 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sea Cheon;Yeo, Yeong-Koo
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2002
  • To verify the performance and effectiveness of bilinear model for the development of ozone prediction system, the simulation experiments of the model identification for ozone formation were performed by using bilinear and linear models. And the prediction results of the ozone formation by bilinear model were compared to those of linear model and the measured data of Seoul. ARMA(Autoregressive Moving Average) model was used in the model identification. A recursive parameter estimation algorithm based on an equation error method was used to estimate parameters of model. From the results of model identification experiment, the ozone formation by bilinear model showed good agreement with the ozone formation from the simulator. From the comparison of the prediction results and the measured data, it appears that the method proposed in this work is a reasonable means of developing real-time short-term prediction of ozone formation for an ozone forecast system.

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