• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.971-979
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• 2009

In this paper, we introduce the method that reduces the bias when the transformation and back-transformation approach is applied in GARCH models. A parametric bootstrap is employed to compute the conditional expectation which is the prediction value to minimize mean square errors in the original scale. Through the analyese of returns of KOSPI and KOSDAQ, we verified that the proposed method provides a bias-reduced estimation for the prediction value.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.239-254
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• 2021

This paper studies time series analysis with estimation and forecasting for Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases, based on the approach of a heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model with two-piece t (TP-T) distributed errors. We consider HAR-TP-T time series models and suggest a step-by-step method to estimate HAR coefficients as well as TP-T distribution parameters. In our proposed step-by-step estimation, the ordinary least squares method is utilized to estimate the HAR coefficients while the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is adopted to estimate the TP-T error parameters. A simulation study on the step-by-step method is conducted and it shows a good performance. For the empirical analysis on the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases, estimates in the HAR-TP-T models of order p = 2, 3, 4 are computed along with a couple of selected lags, which include the optimal lags chosen by minimizing the mean squares errors of the models. The estimation results by our proposed method and the solely MLE are compared with some criteria rules. Our proposed step-by-step method outperforms the MLE in two aspects: mean squares error of the HAR model and mean squares difference between the TP-T residuals and their densities. Moreover, forecasting for the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases is discussed with the optimally selected HAR-TP-T model. Mean absolute percentage error of one-step ahead out-of-sample forecasts is evaluated as 0.0953% in the proposed model. We conclude that our proposed HAR-TP-T time series model with optimally selected lags and its step-by-step estimation provide an accurate forecasting performance for the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.495-505
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• 2011

This study performs statistical tests for stability of a long-run relationship in the telecommunication market system by identifying the time path of a recursively estimated cointegration parameter. A dummy variable is used to recover stability for the period that the hypothesis of stable cointegration is rejected, and then a proper cointegrating relation is derived. A dummy variable appears to reflect the structural change in the cointegrating relation according to the analytical results for the error correction term.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.1-17
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• 1995

경제에 미친 충격이 경제에 일시적 영향을 미치고 사라지며 그 영향력이 곧 소멸하고 마는 경우와 영구히 존속하는 경우가 있을 수 있다. 경제에 불현듯 다가와 영향력을 행사한 충격이 일시적으로 존재하고 사라지느냐 아니면 영원히 또는 장기적으로 존재하느냐 하는 것은 경제 현상을 시계열적으로 파악하고 이해하는 데 중요한 요소이다. 충격이 경제 내에 장기기억으로 존재한다면 경제 현상은 경제가 시작되는 순간부터 현재까지의 충격들의 결합적 집합이라 할 수 있을 것이다. 이 논문에서는 적분확률과정의 모수 d가 정수를 갖지 않고 비정수를 갖을 때의 ARIMA(p, d, g)process, 즉 ARFIMA(p, d, q)process의 비정수차분 모수 d를 추정 하고자 한다. 그리고 이 비정수차 분모수의 추정과 검정을 통하여 우리나라의 주가가 충격을 받았을 때 이 충격을 금시 해소시키고 버리는지, 또는 장기적으로 기억하여 항상 주가에 반영시키고 있는지의 여부를 검증하였다. 이 논문에서는 periodogram 방법과 lag window 방법을 다같이 사용하여 차분모수 d를 추정하고 표준오차를 계산하여 d의 추정치에 대한 기각여부를 검정한 우리나라의 주식시장은 충격에 대한 장기기억을 보유하고 있다는 것을 발견하였다. 이와 같은 발견은 충격적이다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.1-18
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• 2000

In this paper, we study several parameter estimation methods used for autoregressive processes and compare them in view of forecasting. The least square estimation, least absolute deviation estimation, robust estimation are compared through Monte Carlo simulations.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.547-556
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• 2004

This paper consider the testing problem of variance component for the unbalanced two-way error component model with nuisance parameter. We derive the one-sided LM test statistic for testing zero individual(time) effects assuming that the other time-specific(individual) effects are present. Using the Monte Carlo experiments, the computational more demanding LR test slightly underestimates the nominal size and has the low powers relative to LM test statistic.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.445-451
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• 2013

We consider the estimators for the parameters of the exponential model with limited replacements under the type I censoring scheme. Also, we propose the desirable number of replacements to provide the similar effects in terms of the mean square errors.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.313-321
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• 1994

When a single identified outlier in a small sample is presented, the samll sample properties of the MLE's and its jackknife estimators of the location and scale parameters in an assumed exponential model will be considered by the method of permanent theory.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.279-293
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• 2000

This article suggests two change-point estimators which are modifications of Carlstein(1988) change-point estimators with rank functions and mean functions where there is one change-point in a mean function. A comparison study of Carlstein(1988) estimators and proposed estimators is done by simulation on the mean, the MSE, and the proportion of matching true change-point.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.811-827
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• 2010

This paper deals with a density estimation method in binary choice models that can be regarded as a statistical inverse problem. We use an orthogonal basis to estimate density function and consider the choice of an appropriate truncation parameter to reflect the model complexity and the prediction accuracy. We propose a data-dependent rule to choose the truncation parameter in the context of binary choice models. A numerical simulation is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.