• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 확률

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Optimizing In Vitro Propagation of Sophora koreensis Nakai using Statistical Analysis (다양한 통계분석 기법을 이용한 개느삼(Sophora koreensis Nakai)의 기내 증식 최적 조건 구명)

  • Jeong, Ukhan;Lee, Hwa;Park, Sanghee;Cheong, Eun Ju
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.110 no.1
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2021
  • Sophora koreensis Nakai is an indigenous plant in Koreawith a restricted natural range, part of which is in Gangwon province. The species is known to contain phytochemicals that have beneficial effects on human health, and it is economically important in bioindustry. Because of the limited number of plants in a small range of habitats, the mass-propagation method should be developed for use and conservation. In vitro tissue culture is a reliable method in terms of mass propagation from selected clones of the species. We investigated the optimal conditions of the medium in this process, especially focusing on the concentrations of plant growth regulators(PGRs) in the culture of stem-containing axillary buds. Three statistical methods, i.e., ANOVA, response surface method(RSM), and fuzzy clustering were used to analyze the plant growth, number of shoots induced, and shoot length with various combinations of PGRs. Results from the RSM differed from those of the other two methods; thus, the method was not suitable. ANOVA and fuzzy clustering showed similar results. However, more accurate results were obtained using fuzzy clustering because it provided a probability for each treatment. On the basis of the fuzzy clustering analysis, stem tissue produced the greatest number of shoots(11.03 per explant; 63.33%) on a medium supplemented with 5-��M 6-benzylaminopurine and 2.5-��M thidiazuron(TDZ). Proliferation of shoots(2.18 ± 0.21 cm, 63.33%) was attained on a medium supplemented with 2.5-��M BA, 2.5-��M TDZ, and 2.5-��M gibberellic acid.

Test of Independence Between Variables to Estimate the Frequency of Damage in Heat Pipe (열수송관 파손빈도 추정을 위한 변수간 독립성 검정)

  • Myeongsik Kong;Jaemo Kang;Sungyeol Lee
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.24 no.12
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2023
  • Heat pipes located underground in urban areas and operated under high temperature and pressure conditions can cause large-scale human and economic damage if damaged. In order to predict damage in advance, damage and construction information of heat pipe are analyzed to derive independent variables that have a correlation with frequency of damage, and a simple regression analysis modified model using each variable is applied to the field. However, as the correlation between independent variables applied to the model increases, the independence between variables is harmed and the reliability of the model decreases. In this study, the independence of the pipe diameter, burial depth, insulation level of monitoring system, and disconnection or short circuit of the detection line, which are judged to be interrelated, was tested to derive a method for combining variables and setting categories necessary to apply to the frequency of damage estimation model. For the test of independence, the continuous variables pipe diameter and burial depth were each converted into three categories, insulation level of monitoring system was converted into two categories, and the categorical variable disconnection or short circuit of the detection line status was kept as two categories. As a result of the test of independence, p-value between pipe diameter and burial depth, level of monitoring system and disconnection or short circuit of the detection line was lower than the significance level (α = 0.05), indicating a large correlation between them. Therefore, the pipe diameter and burial depth were combined into one variable, and the categories of the combined variable were set to 9 considering the previously set categories. The insulation level of monitoring system and the disconnection or short circuit of the detection line were also combined into one variable. Since the insulation level is unreliable when the detection line status is disconnection or short circuit, the categories of the combined variable were set to 3.

Comparison between Uncertainties of Cultivar Parameter Estimates Obtained Using Error Calculation Methods for Forage Rice Cultivars (오차 계산 방식에 따른 사료용 벼 품종의 품종모수 추정치 불확도 비교)

  • Young Sang Joh;Shinwoo Hyun;Kwang Soo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.129-141
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    • 2023
  • Crop models have been used to predict yield under diverse environmental and cultivation conditions, which can be used to support decisions on the management of forage crop. Cultivar parameters are one of required inputs to crop models in order to represent genetic properties for a given forage cultivar. The objectives of this study were to compare calibration and ensemble approaches in order to minimize the uncertainty of crop yield estimates using the SIMPLE crop model. Cultivar parameters were calibrated using Log-likelihood (LL) and Generic Composite Similarity Measure (GCSM) as an objective function for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. In total, 20 sets of cultivar parameters were generated for each method. Two types of ensemble approach. First type of ensemble approach was the average of model outputs (Eem), using individual parameters. The second ensemble approach was model output (Epm) of cultivar parameter obtained by averaging given 20 sets of parameters. Comparison was done for each cultivar and for each error calculation methods. 'Jowoo' and 'Yeongwoo', which are forage rice cultivars used in Korea, were subject to the parameter calibration. Yield data were obtained from experiment fields at Suwon, Jeonju, Naju and I ksan. Data for 2013, 2014 and 2016 were used for parameter calibration. For validation, yield data reported from 2016 to 2018 at Suwon was used. Initial calibration indicated that genetic coefficients obtained by LL were distributed in a narrower range than coefficients obtained by GCSM. A two-sample t-test was performed to compare between different methods of ensemble approaches and no significant difference was found between them. Uncertainty of GCSM can be neutralized by adjusting the acceptance probability. The other ensemble method (Epm) indicates that the uncertainty can be reduced with less computation using ensemble approach.

A Study on BRCA1/2 Mutations, Hormone Status and HER-2 Status in Korean Women with Early-onset Breast Cancer (젊은 한국인 유방암 환자에서 BRCA1/2 돌연변이와 호르몬 수용체, HER-2 상태에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Doo-Ho;Jin, So-Young;Lee, Dong-Wha;Kim, Eun-Seog;Kim, Yong-Ho
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: Women with breast cancer diagnosed at an age of 40 years or younger have a greater prevalence of germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations than the prevalence of women with breast cancer diagnosed at older ages. Several immunohistochemical characteristics have been identified in breast cancers from studies of Caucasian women with BRCA1/2 mutations having familial or early-onset breast cancers. The aim of this study is to determine whether early-onset breast cancer in BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers, who were not selected from a family history, could be distinguished by the use of immunohistochemical methods and could be distinguished from breast cancer in women of a similar age without a germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation. We also analyzed the prognostic difference between BRCA1/2 related and BRCA1/2 non-related patients by the use of univariate and multivariate analysis. Materials and Methods: Breast cancer tissue specimens from Korean women with early-onset breast cancers were studied using a tumor tissue microarray. Immunohistochemical staining of estrogen receptor(ER), progesterone receptor(PR) and HER-2, as well as the histology and grade of these specimens, were compared. The prognostic impact of immunohistochemical and histological factors as well as the BRCA1/2 mutation status was investigated separately. Results: There were 14 cases and 16 deleterious BRCA1/2 mutations among 101 patients tested. A family history(4/14) and bilateral breast cancers(3/9) were high risk factors for BRCA1/2 mutations. BRCA1/2-associated cancers demonstrated more expression of ER-negative(19.4% versus 5.1%, p=0.038) and HER-2 negative than BRCA1/2 negative tumors, especially for tumors with BRCA1 tumors The BRCA1/2 mutation rate for patients with triple negative tumors(negative expression of ER, PR and HER-2) was 24.2%. Tumor size, nodal status, and HER-2 expression status were significantly associated with disease free survival, as determined by univariate and multivariate analysis, but the BRCA1/2 status was not a prognostic factor. Conclusion: Breast cancer that occurs in women with a germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations have recognizable immunohistochemical features, which may be useful in identifying individuals that are more likely to carry germline mutations. Although the BRCA1/2 mutation status was not a prognostic factor in Korean women with early-onset breast cancer, more cases with a longer follow-up period are needed for further study.

Clinical Indices Predicting Resorption of Pleural Effusion in Tuberculous Pleurisy (결핵성 늑막염에서 삼출액의 흡수에 영향을 미치는 임상적 지표)

  • Lee, Joe-Ho;Chung, Hee-Soon;Lee, Jeong-Sang;Cho, Sang-Rok;Yoon, Hae-Kyung;Song, Chee-Sung
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.660-668
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    • 1995
  • Background: It is said that tuberculous pleuritis responds well to anti-tuberculous drug in general, so no further aggressive therapeutic management is unnecesarry except in case of diagnostic thoracentesis. But in clinical practice, we often see some patients who need later decortication due to dyspnea caused by pleural loculation or thickening despite several months of anti-tuberculous drug therapy. Therefore, we want to know the clinical difference between a group who received decortication due to complication of tuberculous pleuritis despite of anti-tuberculous drug and a group who improved after 9 months of anti-tuberculous drug only. Methods: We reviewed 20 tuberculous pleuritis patients(group 1) who underwent decortication due to dyspnea caused by pleural loculation or severe pleural thickening despite of anti-tuberculous drug therapy for 9 or more months, and 20 other tuberculous pleuritis patients(group 2) who improved by anti-tuberculous drug only and had similar degrees of initial pleural effusion and similar age, sex distribution. Then we compared between the two groups the duration of symptoms before anti-tuberculous drug treatment and pleural fluid biochemistry like glucose, LDH, protein and pleural fluid cell count and WBC differential count, and we also wanted to know whether there was any difference in preoperative PFT value and postoperative PFT value in the patients who underwent decortication, and obtained following results. Results: 1) Group 1 patients had lower glucose level{$63.3{\pm}30.8$(mg/dl)} than that of the group 2{$98.5{\pm}34.2$(mg/dl), p<0.05}, and higher LDH level{$776.3{\pm}266.0$(IU/L)} than the group 2 patients{$376.3{\pm}123.1$(IU/L), p<0.05}, and also longer duration of symptom before treatment{$2.0{\pm}1.7$(month)} than the group 2{$1.1{\pm}1.2$(month), p<0.05}, respectively. 2) In group 1, FVC changed from preoperative $2.55{\pm}0.80$(L) to postoperative $2.99{\pm}0.78$(L)(p<0.05), and FEV1 changed from preoperative $2.19{\pm}0.70$(L/sec) to postoperative $2.50{\pm}0.69$(L/sec)(p<0.05). 3) There was no difference in pleural fluid protein level($5.05{\pm}1.01$(gm/dL) and $5.15{\pm}0.77$(gm/dl), p>0.05) and WBC differential count between group 1 and group 2. Conclusion: It is probable that in tuberculous pleuritis there is a risk of complication in the case of showing relatively low pleural fluid glucose or high LDH level, or in the case of having long duraton of symptom before treatment. We thought prospective study should be performed to confirm this.

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