• 제목/요약/키워드: 예측 확률

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Structurization in Community Composition and Diversity Pattern of Soil Seed Banks in Gwangneung Forest, South Korea (한국 광릉숲 매토종자에서 군집 종조성 및 다양성 양상의 구조화)

  • Kim, Han-Gyeol;Oh, Seung-Hwan;Cho, Yong-Chan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.110 no.4
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    • pp.577-589
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    • 2021
  • Soil seed bank community contributes to the long-term conservation of plant diversity and vegetation dynamics, and their decreasing diversity and density with soil depth provide critical perspectives (deterministic and stochastic) for understanding the community disassembly process. We analyzed changes in species composition and diversity and structuring patterns by soil layer (top and bottom), including surface vegetation, in Gwangneung Forest, a mature forest with a vegetation climate in the temperate central part of the Korean Peninsula. From two layers of soil collected with a vertical difference of 10 cm, 934 specimens of 27 families, 40 genera, 44 species, three varieties, and 47 taxa, germinated. Although species diversity and germination density decreased in most comparative characteristics, including growth type, there was no statistical significance due to large deviations. Within-group variability of species composition was similar in the upper and lower soils, as was the decline pattern in co-occurred species (ζ-diversity) and change in species retention probability. The structuring process of the community composition in the two soil layers was fitted with an exponential correlation rather than a power function, demonstrating the dominance of the stochastic process. The pattern in diversity and species turnover according to soil depth in Gwangneung Forest was discovered to be structured by stochastic random events, such as seed vertical movement rather than interaction with trait characteristics.

Factors Affecting Service Use Intention of Long-term Care among the Disabled: Focused on Age Differences of the Disabled (중고령 장애인의 장기요양서비스 이용의향 예측요인 연구: 중고령 장애인집단내 연령차이를 중심으로)

  • Moon, Yongpil
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.125-159
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors affecting service use intention of long-term care among the disabled. This study conducts a longitudinal study using the modified Andersen model by the disabled age groups of the 50-64 group and the 65 over group. This study examined random effects panel logit analysis for the 50-64 group and the 65 over group by age variations. The results have shown that there are different factors Influencing factors for each specific age group of the disabled(50-64, 65 over). The results were as follows: there are differences of factors between the 50-64 group and the 65 over group. This study found that predisposing factors of the service use intention of long-term care were significantly related to age, residential area, education status, existence of spouses. Enabling factors of the service use intention of long-term care were significantly related to long-term care service recognition, saving, personal salary income level, housing status. Need factors of the service use intention of long-term care were significantly related to chronic diseases, psychological health, IADL. So, there are a need for a policy considerations such as service for the mid-old age disabled by age groups. Finally, implications and future research directions were discussed based on the finding of the study.

Predictors of Intention to Work among People with Disabilities who Maintain Economic Inactivity (비경제활동 유지 장애인의 취업의사 예측변인 탐색)

  • An, Yeji;Ji, Eun
    • 재활복지
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.65-84
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    • 2017
  • This study identified predictors of intention to work among people with disabilities who maintain economic inactivity for two successive years by analyzing a total of 2,255 Participants in the 2014 data of the Panel Survey of Employment for the Disabled (PSED) with through $X^2$, t test, logistic regression. To explore factors affecting intention to work among people with disabilities who maintain economic inactivity, this study hypothesized the effectiveness of variables of demographic, disability, human resources, psycho-social factors based on previous studies. The analysis showed that male, spouse-being, low income status out of demographic variables were related to high probability of having intention to work among people with disabilities who maintain economic inactivity. In case of disability variables, experiencing disability-related discrimination significantly predicted the probability of having intention to work. However, the relationship between disability-related discrimination experiences and high intention to work needs to be viewed as correlated rather than cause-and-effect.In addition, literacy related to computer use/English proficiency/interpersonal and adaptation skills(human resources), experiences of vocational rehabilitation services (human resources), self-esteem (psycho-social) significantly predicted the probability of having intention to work among people with disabilities who maintained economic inactivity. Based on these results, support services for females with disabilities, effective rehabilitation programs of improving literacy related to computer use/English proficiency/interpersonal and adaptation skills and self-esteem, general expansion of vocational rehabilitation services for people with disabilities are suggested.

Flow-Induced Noise Prediction for Submarines (잠수함 형상의 유동소음 해석기법 연구)

  • Yeo, Sang-Jae;Hong, Suk-Yoon;Song, Jee-Hun;Kwon, Hyun-Wung;Seol, Hanshin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.24 no.7
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    • pp.930-938
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    • 2018
  • Underwater noise radiated from submarines is directly related to the probability of being detected by the sonar of an enemy vessel. Therefore, minimizing the noise of a submarine is essential for improving survival outcomes. For modern submarines, as the speed and size of a submarine increase and noise reduction technology is developed, interest in flow noise around the hull has been increasing. In this study, a noise analysis technique was developed to predict flow noise generated around a submarine shape considering the free surface effect. When a submarine is operated near a free surface, turbulence-induced noise due to the turbulence of the flow and bubble noise from breaking waves arise. First, to analyze the flow around a submarine, VOF-based incompressible two-phase flow analysis was performed to derive flow field data and the shape of the free surface around the submarine. Turbulence-induced noise was analyzed by applying permeable FW-H, which is an acoustic analogy technique. Bubble noise was derived through a noise model for breaking waves based on the turbulent kinetic energy distribution results obtained from the CFD results. The analysis method developed was verified by comparison with experimental results for a submarine model measured in a Large Cavitation Tunnel (LCT).

Seismic Fragility Analysis of Rahmen-type Continuous Bridge Supported by High Piers (고교각으로 지지된 라멘형 연속교의 지진취약도 분석)

  • Kang, Pan-Seung;Hong, Ki-Nam;Yeon, Yeong-Mo
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.84-95
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    • 2019
  • This paper reports the process of seismic fragility analysis for the rahman-type continuous bridge system. The target structure was the five span highway bridge with maximum pier hight of 72m. OpenSees software was used for the nonlinear time history analysis. In this study, 50 ground motions are considered for nonlinear time history analysis. For each ground motion, PGA was scaled from 0.1g to 2.0g with intervals of 0.1g in order to consider a wide range of the seismic intensity measure. In addition, yield displacement and ultimate displacement of each pier were calculated through section analysis. Based on the result of non linear time history analysis and section analysis, damage condition of target bridge was classified according to the definition of damage condition proposed by Barbat et al. As a result, it was predicted that Extensive Damage occurred at P1 when 0.731 g earthquake occurred in the longitudinal direction. Based on the seismic fragility analysis results, it is found that the probability of occurrence of Extensive Damage in the 4,800 - year period earthquake was about 4.2%. Therefore the target bridge has enough safety for earthquake.

Analysis of Correlation between Marine Traffic Congestion and Waterway Risk based on IWRAP Mk2 (해상교통혼잡도와 IWRAP Mk2 기반의 항로 위험도 연관성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Euijong;Lee, Yun-sok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.527-534
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    • 2019
  • Several types of mathematical analysis methods are used for port waterway risk assessment based on marine traffic volume. In Korea, a marine traffic congestion model that standardizes the size of the vessels passing through the port waterway is applied to evaluate the risk of the waterway. For example, when marine traffic congestion is high, risk situations such as collisions are likely to occur. However, a scientific review is required to determine if there is a correlation between high density of maritime traffic and a high risk of waterway incidents. In this study, IWRAP Mk2(IALA official recommendation evaluation model) and a marine traffic congestion model were used to analyze the correlation between port waterway risk and marine traffic congestion in the same area. As a result, the linear function of R2 was calculated as 0.943 and it was determined to be significant. The Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated as 0.971, indicating a strong positive correlation. It was confirmed that the port waterway risk and the marine traffic congestion have a strong correlation due to the influence of the common input variables of each model. It is expected that these results will be used in the development of advanced models for the prediction of port waterway risk assessment.

Considerations and Alternative Approaches to the Estimation of Local Abundance of Legally Protected Species, the Fiddler Crab, Austruca lactea (법정보호종, 흰발농게(Austruca lactea) 서식 개체수 추정에 대한 검토와 대안)

  • Yoo, Jae-Won;Kim, Chang-Soo;Park, Mi-Ra;Jeong, Su-Young;Lee, Chae-Lin;Kim, Sungtae;Ahn, Dong-Sik;Lee, Chang-Gun;Han, Donguk;Back, Yonghae;Park, Young Cheol
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.122-132
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    • 2021
  • We reviewed the methods employed in Korean tidal flat surveys to measure the local abundance of the endangered wildlife and marine protected species, the fiddler crab, Austruca lactea. A complete census for infinite population is impossible even in a limited habitat within a tidal flat, and density estimates from samples strongly vary due to diverse biological and ecological factors. The habitat boundaries and areas shift with periodicities or rhythmic activities of organisms as well as measurement errors. Hence the local abundance calculated from density and habitat areas should be regarded as transient. This conjecture was valid based on the spatio-temporal variations of the density averages, standard error ranges, and spatial distribution of the crab, A. lactea observed for 3 years (2015-2017) in Songdo tidal flat in Incheon. We proposed the potential habitat areas using the occurrence probability of 50% from logistic regression model, reflecting the importance of habitat conservation value as an alternative to local abundance. The spatial shape of potential habitat predicted from a generalized model would remain constant over time unless the species' critical environmental conditions change rapidly. The species-specific model is expected to be used for the introduction of desired species in future habitat restoration/creation projects.

The Effects of the Bestseller Ranks on Public Library Circulation: Based on Panel Data Analysis (베스트셀러 순위가 공공도서관 대출에 미치는 영향 분석: 패널자료 분석을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jongwook;Kang, Woojin;Park, Jungkyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of the bestseller ranks on the book circulations in public libraries. To achieve this goal, the weekly data sets of 179 books' library circulation and bestseller list from January 1, 2018 to December 29, 2019 were constructed based on the data collected from BigData MarketC and YES24. Three methods for analyzing panel data including linear regression, fixed-effect, and random effect models were compared, and it turned out that fixed-effect model was better than other methods. The results show that the average ranks of bestsellers were associated with their public library circulations visually. Also, the analysis of fixed-effect model showed that the single rank decline of a book on the bestseller list decreases its average circulation of 0.108 while the size of effect varied depending on subject of books. The study empirically demonstrated the impact of a bestseller list on people's book circulation behavior, suggesting that public libraries need to reference sociocultural context as well as bestseller book lists to predict library user needs and to formulate collection development policy.

A Comparison of Pre-Processing Techniques for Enhanced Identification of Paralichthys olivaceus Disease based on Deep Learning (딥러닝 기반 넙치 질병 식별 향상을 위한 전처리 기법 비교)

  • Kang, Ja Young;Son, Hyun Seung;Choi, Han Suk
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2022
  • In the past, fish diseases were bacterial in aqua farms, but in recent years, the frequency of fish diseases has increased as they have become viral and mixed. Viral diseases in an enclosed space called a aqua farm have a high spread rate, so it is very likely to lead to mass death. Fast identification of fish diseases is important to prevent group death. However, diagnosis of fish diseases requires a high level of expertise and it is difficult to visually check the condition of fish every time. In order to prevent the spread of the disease, an automatic identification system of diseases or fish is needed. In this paper, in order to improve the performance of the disease identification system of Paralichthys olivaceus based on deep learning, the existing pre-processing method is compared and tested. Target diseases were selected from three most frequent diseases such as Scutica, Vibrio, and Lymphocystis in Paralichthys olivaceus. The RGB, HLS, HSV, LAB, LUV, XYZ, and YCRCV were used as image pre-processing methods. As a result of the experiment, HLS was able to get the best results than using general RGB. It is expected that the fish disease identification system can be advanced by improving the recognition rate of diseases in a simple way.

A development of stochastic simulation model based on vector autoregressive model (VAR) for groundwater and river water stages (벡터자기회귀(VAR) 모형을 이용한 지하수위와 하천수위의 추계학적 모의기법 개발)

  • Kwon, Yoon Jeong;Won, Chang-Hee;Choi, Byoung-Han;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.12
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    • pp.1137-1147
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    • 2022
  • River and groundwater stages are the main elements in the hydrologic cycle. They are spatially correlated and can be used to evaluate hydrological and agricultural drought. Stochastic simulation is often performed independently on hydrological variables that are spatiotemporally correlated. In this setting, interdependency across mutual variables may not be maintained. This study proposes the Bayesian vector autoregression model (VAR) to capture the interdependency between multiple variables over time. VAR models systematically consider the lagged stages of each variable and the lagged values of the other variables. Further, an autoregressive model (AR) was built and compared with the VAR model. It was confirmed that the VAR model was more effective in reproducing observed interdependency (or cross-correlation) between river and ground stages, while the AR generally underestimated that of the observed.