• Title/Summary/Keyword: 예측 확률

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A Study on Data Preprocessing for the Activity-Travel Simulator: A Case of FEATHERS Seoul (활동기반 시뮬레이터 입력 자료의 전처리 방안에 대한 연구: FEATHERS Seoul을 사례로)

  • Cho, Sungjin;Hwang, Jeong Hwan;Bellemans, Tom;Kochan, Bruno;Lee, Won Do;Choi, Keechoo;Joh, Chang-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.531-543
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    • 2014
  • Research on activity-based travel demand forecasting and activity-travel simulator has received an international attention for the last two decades. Ways to develop the activity-based simulator may be manifold. It is obvious that importing an existing simulator that has been proven internationally likely reduces the development cost and the risk of failure. By definition of the activity-based approach, however, the details of an activity-based simulator inevitably relies on particular social, economic and cultural characteristics of the society where the simulator is developed. When importing such a simulator from overseas, the researcher should be aware of the importance of tuning the system for the society to which the imported system is applied. There are many potential works on this, including for example the tuning of data structure that is likely different form of the original system. The authors are yet aware of certain research on those. The current paper aims to report the result of transforming the input data for applying the existing activity-travel simulator to Seoul. The paper first introduces FEATHERS that was developed in Belgium having Albatross which is the core of system. FEATHERS Seoul that is under development and modified version of the original FEATHERS is briefly described and the related problems are discussed. The paper then explored to resolve and to alleviate such problems.

Use of Space-time Autocorrelation Information in Time-series Temperature Mapping (시계열 기온 분포도 작성을 위한 시공간 자기상관성 정보의 결합)

  • Park, No-Wook;Jang, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.432-442
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    • 2011
  • Climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation tend to vary both in space and in time simultaneously. Thus, it is necessary to include space-time autocorrelation into conventional spatial interpolation methods for reliable time-series mapping. This paper introduces and applies space-time variogram modeling and space-time kriging to generate time-series temperature maps using hourly Automatic Weather System(AWS) temperature observation data for a one-month period. First, temperature observation data are decomposed into deterministic trend and stochastic residual components. For trend component modeling, elevation data which have reasonable correlation with temperature are used as secondary information to generate trend component with topographic effects. Then, space-time variograms of residual components are estimated and modelled by using a product-sum space-time variogram model to account for not only autocorrelation both in space and in time, but also their interactions. From a case study, space-time kriging outperforms both conventional space only ordinary kriging and regression-kriging, which indicates the importance of using space-time autocorrelation information as well as elevation data. It is expected that space-time kriging would be a useful tool when a space-poor but time-rich dataset is analyzed.

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A Wireless Traffic Load-Balancing Algorithm based on Adaptive Bandwidth Reservation Scheme in Mobile Cellular Networks (셀룰러 망에서 적응적 대역폭 예약 기법을 이용한 무선 트래픽 부하 균형 알고리즘)

  • 정영석;우매리;김종근
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.21-24
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    • 2001
  • For very large multimedia traffic to be supported successfully in wireless network environment, it is necessary to provide Quality-of-Service(QoS) guarantees between mobile hosts(clients). In order to guarantee the Qos, we have to keep the call blocking probability below target value during handoff session. However, the QoS negotiated between the client and the network may not be guaranteed due to lack of available channels for traffic in the new cell, since mobile clients should be able to continue their on-going sessions. In this paper we propose a efficient load-balancing algorithm based on the adaptive bandwidth reservation scheme for enlarging available channels in a cell. We design a new method to predict the mobility of clients using MPT(mobility profile table). This method is then used to reserve a part of bandwidths for handoff calls to its adjacent cells and this reserved bandwidth can be used for handoff call prior to new connection requests. If the number of free channels is also under a low threshold value, our scheme use a load-balancing algorithm with a adaptive bandwidth reservation. In order to evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we measure the metrics such as the blocking probability of new calls and dropping probability of handoff calls, and compare with other existing schemes.

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Performance Analysis of RS codes for Low Power Wireless Sensor Networks (저전력 무선 센서 네트워크를 위한 RS 코드의 성능 분석)

  • Jung, Kyung-Kwon;Choi, Woo-Seung
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2010
  • In wireless sensor networks, the data transmitted from the sensor nodes are susceptible to corruption by errors which caused of noisy channels and other factors. In view of the severe energy constraint in Sensor Networks, it is important to use the error control scheme of the energy efficiently. In this paper, we presented RS (Reed-Solomon) codes in terms of their BER performance and power consumption. RS codes work by adding extra redundancy to the data. The encoded data can be stored or transmitted. It could have errors introduced, when the encoded data is recovered. The added redundancy allows a decoder to detect which parts of the received data is corrupted, and corrects them. The number of errors which are able to be corrected by RS code can determine by added redundancy. The results of experiment validate the performance of proposed method to provide high degree of reliability in low-power communication. We could predict the lifetime of RS codes which transmitted at 32 byte a 1 minutes. RS(15, 13), RS(31, 27), RS(63, 57), RS(127,115), and RS(255,239) can keep the days of 173.7, 169.1, 163.9, 150.7, and 149.7 respectively. The evaluation based on packet reception ratio (PRR) indicates that the RS(255,239) extends a sensor node's communication range by up about 3 miters.

A Study on the Development of Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model using Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index -Occurrence of Forest Fire in Kangwon Province- (캐나다 산불 기상지수를 이용한 산불발생확률모형 개발 -강원도 지역 산불발생을 중심으로-)

  • Park, Houng-Sek;Lee, Si-Young;Chae, Hee-Mun;Lee, Woo-Kyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2009
  • Fine fuel moisture code (FFMC), a main component of forest fire weather index(FWI) in the Canadian forest fire danger rating system(CFFDRS), indicated a probability of ignition through expecting a dryness of fine fuels. According to this code, a rising of temperature and wind velocity, a decreasing of precipitation and decline of humidity in a weather condition showed a rising of a danger rate for the forest fire. In this study, we analyzed a weather condition during 5 years in Kangwon province, calculated a FFMC and examined an application of FFMC. Very low humidity and little precipitation was a characteristic during spring and fall fire season in Kangwon province. 75% of forest fires during 5 years occurred in this season and especially 90% of forest fire during fire season occurred in spring. For developing of the prediction model for a forest fire occurrence probability, we used a logistic regression function with forest fire occurrence data and classified mean FFMC during 10 days. Accuracy of a developed model was 63.6%. To improve this model, we need to deal with more meteorological data during overall seasons and to associate a meteorological condition with a forest fire occurrence with more research results.

Strategic Planning of Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Infrastructure Considering the Uncertainty in the Operating Cost and Carbon Tax (불확실한 운영비용과 탄소세를 고려한 CCS 기반시설의 전략적 계획)

  • Han, Jee-Hoon;Lee, In-Beum
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.471-478
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    • 2012
  • A carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays a very important role to reduce $CO_2$ dramatically in $CO_2$ emission sources which are distributed throughout various areas. Numerous research works have been undertaken to analyze the techno-economic feasibility of planning the CCS infrastructure. However, uncertainties such as $CO_2$ emissions, $CO_2$ reduction costs, and carbon taxes may exist in various impact factors of the CCS infrastructure. However, few research works have adopted these uncertainties in designing the CCS infrastructure. In this study, a two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for planning the CCS infrastructure under uncertain operating costs and carbon taxes. It can help determine where and how much $CO_2$ to capture, store or transport for the purpose of minimizing the total annual $CO_2$ reduction cost in handling the uncertainties while meeting the $CO_2$ mitigation target. The capability of the proposed model to provide correct decisions despite changing the operating costs and carbon taxes is tested by applying it to a real case study based on Korea. The results will help to determine planning of a CCS infrastructure under uncertain environments.

Dynamic Management of Equi-Join Results for Multi-Keyword Searches (다중 키워드 검색에 적합한 동등조인 연산 결과의 동적 관리 기법)

  • Lim, Sung-Chae
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartA
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    • v.17A no.5
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    • pp.229-236
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    • 2010
  • With an increasing number of documents in the Internet or enterprises, it becomes crucial to efficiently support users' queries on those documents. In that situation, the full-text search technique is accepted in general, because it can answer uncontrolled ad-hoc queries by automatically indexing all the keywords found in the documents. The size of index files made for full-text searches grows with the increasing number of indexed documents, and thus the disk cost may be too large to process multi-keyword queries against those enlarged index files. To solve the problem, we propose both of the index file structure and its management scheme suitable to the processing of multi-keyword queries against a large volume of index files. For this, we adopt the structure of inverted-files, which are widely used in the multi-keyword searches, as a basic index structure and modify it to a hierarchical structure for join operations and ranking operations performed during the query processing. In order to save disk costs based on that index structure, we dynamically store in the main memory the results of join operations between two keywords, if they are highly expected to be entered in users' queries. We also do performance comparisons using a cost model of the disk to show the performance advantage of the proposed scheme.

Diagnosis of the Guarantee System of Right for Learning for Student Athletes in School Athletic Clubs and Development Strategy (학교운동부 선수의 학습권보장제 진단과 발전과제)

  • Lee, Yang-Gu;Hong, Hee-Jung
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.475-483
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    • 2017
  • Based on the operating system of the advanced school athletic clubs operated to attempt a new paradigm of athletic culture in the field of school athletics, this study aimed to conduct an in-depth analysis of the student athletes' academic level and seek a solution for the stream of the times and integrated change based on a relative minimum academic achievement standard applied by this system. For Analyzing the difference in academic grades between subjects to which the minimum academic achievement standard by the event is applied, one-way ANOVA and MANOVA were used. First, the grade point average (GPA) of the student athletes by the event did not reach the GPA of most general students. Second, it was predicted that in applying a standard, relative to the general students, as academic grades increased, the probability in which the student athletes do not reach the minimum academic achievement standard would increase. Third, it turned out that, even in the phased application of the current minimum academic achievement standard to the GPA of the student athletes by the event, the ratio of the attainment of the minimum academic achievement was similar.

A Study on Factors of Internet Overdependence for Adults Using the Decision Tree Analysis Model (성인층의 인터넷 과의존 영향요인: 의사결정나무분석을 활용하여)

  • Seo, Hyung-Jun;Shin, Ji-Woong
    • Informatization Policy
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.20-45
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to find the factors of Internet overdependence in adults, through the decision tree analysis model, which is a data mining method using National Information Society Agency's raw data from the survey on Internet overdependence in 2016. As a result of the decision tree analysis, a total 16 nodes of Internet overdependence risk groups were identified. The main predicated variables were the amount of time spent per smart media usage in weekdays; amount of time spent per smart media usage in weekends; experiences of purchasing cash items; percentage of using smart media for leisure; negative personality; percentage of using smart media for information search and utilization; and awareness on good functions of the Internet, all of which in order had greater impact on the risk groups. Users in the highest risk node spent the smart media for more than 5 minutes per use and less than 5~10 minutes in weekdays, had experiences of cash item purchase, and had lower level of awareness on the good functions of the Internet. The analysis led to the following recommendations: First, even a short-time use has higher chances of causing Internet overdependence, and therefore, guidelines need to be developed based on research on the usage behavior rather than the usage time. Second, self-regulation is required because factors that affect overindulgence in games, such as the cash items, increase Internet overdependence. Third, using the Internet for leisure causes higher risk of overdependence and therefore, other means of leisure should be recommended.

Multi-Channel MAC Protocol Based on V2I/V2V Collaboration in VANET (VANET에서 V2I/V2V 협력 기반 멀티채널 MAC 프로토콜)

  • Heo, Sung-Man;Yoo, Sang-Jo
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.96-107
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    • 2015
  • VANET technologies provide real-time traffic information for mitigating traffic jam and preventing traffic accidents, as well as in-vehicle infotainment service through Telematics/Intelligent Transportation System (ITS). Due to the rapid increasement of various requirements, the vehicle communication with a limited resource and the fixed frame architecture of the conventional techniques is limited to provide an efficient communication service. Therefore, a new flexible operation depending on the surrounding situation information is required that needs an adaptive design of the network architecture and protocol for efficiently predicting, distributing and sharing the context-aware information. In this paper, Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) based on communication between vehicle and a Road Side Units (RSU) and Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) based on communication between vehicles are effectively combined in a new MAC architecture and V2I and V2V vehicles collaborate in management. As a result, many vehicles and RSU can use more efficiently the resource and send data rapidly. The simulation results show that the proposed method can achieve high resource utilization in accordance. Also we can find out the optimal transmission relay time and 2nd relay vehicle selection probability value to spread out V2V/V2I collaborative schedule message rapidly.